What are your expectations for the rookie Beane drafts in the 1st round this year?

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I would say our defensive success in the secondary has as much to do with the scheme as it does with our two all pros at safety

 

They are erasers in the backfield

 

If you watch every other game on NFL Sunday you will see teams getting beat deep week in and week out... Poyer and Hyde were not beat over the top on an actual bomb all year 

 

They do make up for our cornerbacks mistakes... Number two corner will be a lot more important when we don't have both of those all pros back there... And they're getting up there in age

 

Some of the guys you mentioned, have the talent to develop into a starter... But you don't want to necessarily plug them in day one... You Really don't want to plug in any rookie except a blue chip 

 

McDermott's system has been elite against bad teams.. good quarterbacks don't have as much problem with his scheme.. cuz they knowo they can attack the weak corner playing soft coverage

 

We are the thinnest team at outside corner in the NFL.. literally two guys right now and one is coming off a torn ACL.. I do think it's a big need and there's actual first round talent who might be available

 

I've never been worn for reaching just to reach

 

I agree with everything you said.  I’ve been saying for years that we need to enjoy Poyer and Hyde while we have them.  They cover a lot of our deficiencies with IQ.  
 

i just don’t know if some of these guys that are considered 1st rd talents, are actually first rd talents/scheme fits.  I’m not 💯 on McDuffie or Gordon.  I’m a no on Elam. Leaning yes on Hill.  Definite yes on Booth.  If the choice is between McDuffie and Gordon….i think I’d rather trade back or draft a WR/Zion Johnson.  I’d take Booth and probably Hill @ 25.  

[Shaw66]

14 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Trading a pick next year doesn’t preclude being in it for long term.  If we’re getting a first round talent in rd 2, I’m all for it.  

 

Sorry, I jumped in where maybe I didn't understand.  First, it doesn't sound like there's going to be any true first round talent in round 2.   It's exactly the opposite.  It sounds like there's going to be some second round talent going late in the first round.   But that's beside the point. 

 

What matters is what you're trading from next year.   It's hard for me to justifying trading next year's round 1 or probably even round 2 unless you're moving up for a QB, and certainly not to move up INTO round 2.   If you're taking a day 3 pick or two from from next year, sure, and maybe a third round pick, but not a one or two.   

 

The talent just isn't that important.   The talent will come to you, as we've seen this year.   There's always talent out there.  If you have your QB and your middle linebacker, if you have your receiver and your corner, you don't need to chase talent.   If the Bills see Uhrlacher in the draft, yeah, trade future picks.   But don't trade those picks for anyone else.  

[Shaw66]

11 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I agree with everything you said.  I’ve been saying for years that we need to enjoy Poyer and Hyde while we have them.  They cover a lot of our deficiencies with IQ.  
 

i just don’t know if some of these guys that are considered 1st rd talents, are actually first rd talents/scheme fits.  I’m not 💯 on McDuffie or Gordon.  I’m a no on Elam. Leaning yes on Hill.  Definite yes on Booth.  If the choice is between McDuffie and Gordon….i think I’d rather trade back or draft a WR/Zion Johnson.  I’d take Booth and probably Hill @ 25.  

I don't know the actual talent, but what you describe makes sense.  Problem for Beane might be that he can't find a trade partner willing to pay a decent price to trade up.   It really sounds like a year where the draft pick value chart won't hold, when you're talking about the price for a late-first-round pick.

 

On the other hand, Beane may not have much choice.  He has to find some corner talent somewhere, and I don't think he can wait until the fourth round or later to get the kind of help McDermott needs now.  Dane and Neal for six weeks and Dane and a recovering White after that doesn't seem like a winning formula.  

Edited April 25, 2022 by Shaw66

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 

Sorry, I jumped in where maybe I didn't understand.  First, it doesn't sound like there's going to be any true first round talent in round 2.   It's exactly the opposite.  It sounds like there's going to be some second round talent going late in the first round.   But that's beside the point. 

 

What matters is what you're trading from next year.   It's hard for me to justifying trading next year's round 1 or probably even round 2 unless you're moving up for a QB, and certainly not to move up INTO round 2.   If you're taking a day 3 pick or two from from next year, sure, and maybe a third round pick, but not a one or two.   

 

The talent just isn't that important.   The talent will come to you, as we've seen this year.   There's always talent out there.  If you have your QB and your middle linebacker, if you have your receiver and your corner, you don't need to chase talent.   If the Bills see Uhrlacher in the draft, yeah, trade future picks.   But don't trade those picks for anyone else.  

that may be the case, but we were talking about a sitch in which Zion  fell to round 2.  i consider him worthy of a late first rd pick.

 

We def disagree.  If we can add 2 first round talents this year, i hope we go ahead and do just that.

[Buffalo716]

14 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I agree with everything you said.  I’ve been saying for years that we need to enjoy Poyer and Hyde while we have them.  They cover a lot of our deficiencies with IQ.  
 

i just don’t know if some of these guys that are considered 1st rd talents, are actually first rd talents/scheme fits.  I’m not 💯 on McDuffie or Gordon.  I’m a no on Elam. Leaning yes on Hill.  Definite yes on Booth.  If the choice is between McDuffie and Gordon….i think I’d rather trade back or draft a WR/Zion Johnson.  I’d take Booth and probably Hill @ 25.  

Booth would be my guy I want ..I think he has the traits and fits what we do 

 

I'm not for reaching just to reach

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Booth would be my guy I want ..I think he has the traits and fits what we do 

 

I'm not for reaching just to reach

yeah me too. booth all day.  but what happens when he's gone.  Theres a good chance that hes off the board when we select imo

 

We trade up

Edited April 25, 2022 by NewEra

[OldTimer1960]

37 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Trading a pick next year doesn’t preclude being in it for long term.  If we’re getting a first round talent in rd 2, I’m all for it.  

Many think we won’t be getting first round talent at 25.  This is not considered a top-heavy draft, but more meat and potatoes where you can find solid players in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

I imagine that you are aware that when trading future picks the are discounted by about a round because the receiving team has to wait a year for it - sort of interest on a loan.  So, next year’s first in a trade would be roughly valued as a 2nd this year.  Right there you are losing some draft capital, so they need to be really sure that they are right about the player that they trade future picks for.

[RocCityRoller]

Depends on the position and how the draft falls.

Assuming no QB/P/K

 

CB - should compete to start, especially if White misses time

OG - compete to start with Bates and Saffold as a Rookie

OT - complete to start with Brown as a Rookie

RB - could be RB#1 as a rookie (still a bad idea in Rd1)

DT - could win starting DT job if 1 Technique, depth/backup for 3T DT

S - Depth - this might be the best S draft in years, grab one. Starter in 2023 based on contracts and age with Poyer and Hyde

OC - Depth - learn from Morse, starter in 2023 as a cap saving move with Morse

LB - depends on if Edmunds was traded, if not 2023 starter for cap savings with Edmunds

WR - Depth - complete with Davis or Crowder/Mckenie as slot depending on body/type of WR

DE - Depth - unless Buffalo lands some stud and Von Miller fills the Lorax role with Rouseau and Rookie as 2 DEs

[DasNootz]

17 hours ago, intimidatortj said:

Fans put too much hope on the 1st round pick.  When you are picking 25th, getting an elite play maker is a tall order.

 

 

 

I kind of disagree - whoever we pick will be in a position to succeed. It's easier for someone to come on board a true contender and be impactful day 1 than it is to go somewhere with little surrounding talent.

[RocCityRoller]

8 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Many think we won’t be getting first round talent at 25.  This is not considered a top-heavy draft, but more meat and potatoes where you can find solid players in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

I imagine that you are aware that when trading future picks the are discounted by about a round because the receiving team has to wait a year for it - sort of interest on a loan.  So, next year’s first in a trade would be roughly valued as a 2nd this year.  Right there you are losing some draft capital, so they need to be really sure that they are right about the player that they trade future picks for.

I generally agree with you, deep draft, not amazing at the top.

I think there are 3-4 NFL starter safeties in the draft, very top heavy S draft.

As much as we all love Poyer and Hyde a transition will happen in the next 1-3 years.

 

25 is a great spot to pick up a potentially elite S. The 5th yr option on a S could be useful as the transition from Poyer and Hyde becomes reality.

[NewEra]

8 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Many think we won’t be getting first round talent at 25.  This is not considered a top-heavy draft, but more meat and potatoes where you can find solid players in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

I imagine that you are aware that when trading future picks the are discounted by about a round because the receiving team has to wait a year for it - sort of interest on a loan.  So, next year’s first in a trade would be roughly valued as a 2nd this year.  Right there you are losing some draft capital, so they need to be really sure that they are right about the player that they trade future picks for.

I’m aware that we are talking about trading for a 1st rd talent in round 2…..IF a guy we have as a first round talent falls into the 1st 3rd of the 2nd round.  That’s the sitch I’m talking about……yes, I would be ok trading a first rd next year.  Next years draft pick doesn’t help us win a super bowl this year.  A 1st round talent would.  
 

your losing value only if you don’t consider the fact that you’re getting an extra year of play…..in a super bowl contending year.  I consider that gaining value.  
 

The 10th pick in rd 2 is worth 470.  Our 2nd rd pick is 330, as is our 1st next year.  89 is worth 145.  I’d trade our late 2nd and 3rd round picks for a player I have graded in the first round.  We would have to trade our 2nd and 3rd this year OR our 1st next year and 3rd this year.  
 

i can see why people wouldn’t want to trade a 1st next year.  I just think adding a 1st round talent in rd 2 is worth it giving up an additional pick for. 

[Mat68]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm not.  I'm in it for the long term - just keep building with what falls to you as it falls.  Spend to your cap in dollars and use this year's picks, collecting talent that becomes available.   Sometimes it will be first pick you move up for, sometimes it will be a high pick that you got from another team in a trade that turned out well, sometimes it will be a free agent, like Miller.  But don't mortgage your future by overspending cap or giving up next year's picks.  

 

McDermott has to trust Beane to find the talent, and neither McDermott nor Beane should do things that can hamstring Beane in future years.  So far, Beane has an excellent track record.  

Only guy I can see Buffalo go get would be Sauce.  If he is available with Carolina could they package enough to move that far?  Idk.  Carolina doesnt have another pick til 180’s I believe.  25 89 and next years 32nd.  Give them the extra 1st to try and trade for a qb next season.  With the perceived less class maybe Buffalo could put a package together that wouldnt be crazy.  

[NastyNateSoldiers]

17 hours ago, intimidatortj said:

Fans put too much hope on the 1st round pick.  When you are picking 25th, getting an elite play maker is a tall order.

 

 

 

We can find elite players all threw out the draft. There’s no exact science to the draft and there’s plenty of reasons for it. I think the Bills are in a great position to take a player at nearly any position. We need to have an eye on the future in this draft look at Wrs, Lbers, FS/SS , CB & Oline just need to go BPA that’s what most good franchises do . Teams like Pitt, Balt and Tenn have stuck to this philosophy recently and it’s paid off for them handsomely. 

[OldTimer1960]

53 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’m aware that we are talking about trading for a 1st rd talent in round 2…..IF a guy we have as a first round talent falls into the 1st 3rd of the 2nd round.  That’s the sitch I’m talking about……yes, I would be ok trading a first rd next year.  Next years draft pick doesn’t help us win a super bowl this year.  A 1st round talent would.  
 

your losing value only if you don’t consider the fact that you’re getting an extra year of play…..in a super bowl contending year.  I consider that gaining value.  
 

The 10th pick in rd 2 is worth 470.  Our 2nd rd pick is 330, as is our 1st next year.  89 is worth 145.  I’d trade our late 2nd and 3rd round picks for a player I have graded in the first round.  We would have to trade our 2nd and 3rd this year OR our 1st next year and 3rd this year.  
 

i can see why people wouldn’t want to trade a 1st next year.  I just think adding a 1st round talent in rd 2 is worth it giving up an additional pick for. 

Agree, if there is someone they really want at top of round 2.  I would lean towards this year’s 2nd and 3rd rather than 1st and third next year.

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

that may be the case, but we were talking about a sitch in which Zion  fell to round 2.  i consider him worthy of a late first rd pick.

 

We def disagree.  If we can add 2 first round talents this year, i hope we go ahead and do just that.

Thanks for catching me up.  I don't disagree with you in theory, but it doesn't sound like this is the year that that scenario is likely.   Beane has already said that he doesn't have 32 first-round guys, and the earlier post about what Breer said in SI also suggests that this draft is relatively thin in top-end talent.   Seems unlikely that a guy Beane really likes will survive into the second round.   Possible, for sure, but not likely.  Seems even more unlikely that Beane would like him so much that he'd trade next year's first for him.  If Beane liked him THAT much, who didn't he just use this year's first on him?   I suppose there could be TWO guys he was really hot on but again, in a year when the top end seems thin, that doesn't seem likely. 

[Simon Says]

21 hours ago, intimidatortj said:

Do you think Beane can draft a prospect this year that will have a rookie year better than, equal to, or worse than the following?

 

• Shaq Lawson
• Tre' White
• Tremaine Edmunds
• Ed Oliver
• Greg Rousseau

 

If Beane drafts a rookie that plays equivalent to what #9 pick Ed Oliver did as a rookie, would you be happy?
(Remember he started out very slow...not "starting" quite a few games early on)
How about Shaq's rookie year?  Would you be happy with that?
Tremaine?  Rousseau?

 

I think we have to keep in mind that many 1st round picks just don't move the needle as much as we hope.

IMO if we draft a DB that plays close to what Tre' White did as a rookie, I would be happy.

If instead the rookie only plays up to what Ed Oliver, Rousseau, Edmunds or Shaq did, I would be a bit disappointed.

 

PS the best 1st round pick was probably trading the pick to get Stefon Diggs.  Diggs first year in Buffalo was pretty darn good.

In general, I want the 1st round pick to contribute immediately.  Reps differ by position and QB is an exception. If Bills pick a CB,I want him to fill in for Tre temporarily and then compete with,or complement, Jackson.

If IOL,I would expect a starter at RG. A WR could see some reps, maybe return kicks. 

[atlbillsfan1975]

11 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Wow that is a tall order for any GM on any team even more difficult on a roster as loaded as the Bills.

Not really. 

[intimidatortj]

5 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Only guy I can see Buffalo go get would be Sauce.  If he is available with Carolina could they package enough to move that far?  Idk.  Carolina doesnt have another pick til 180’s I believe.  25 89 and next years 32nd.  Give them the extra 1st to try and trade for a qb next season.  With the perceived less class maybe Buffalo could put a package together that wouldnt be crazy.  

I wonder how much of a difference there will be between Sauce in his NFL career and Booth's NFL career?

[The Jokeman]

As mentioned it's position dependent. As a CB or RB likely get more playing time this season than other positions so would expect more production from them. If we go there I'd want someone that start at least 8 games this season and be a full time starter in 2023. If take an OG them he'll be replacing Stafford next year. A slot WR should replace Crowder in 2023.

[The Jokeman]

5 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Only guy I can see Buffalo go get would be Sauce.  If he is available with Carolina could they package enough to move that far?  Idk.  Carolina doesnt have another pick til 180’s I believe.  25 89 and next years 32nd.  Give them the extra 1st to try and trade for a qb next season.  With the perceived less class maybe Buffalo could put a package together that wouldnt be crazy.  

The Bills need cheap depth or guys to replace aging starters at CB, G, WR, S, depth TE, depth LB. Yes our window to win the Super Bowl is this year and likely next year but will still have Josh for another decade plus and why risk on one year? I don't see Beane short sighted.