What are your expectations for the rookie Beane drafts in the 1st round this year?

[NewEra]

21 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Yeah, this is basically it -- totally depends on the player and position, but we should be good enough to make the playoffs without getting superstar contribution from a rookie. If they're ready to play like a dependable starter by the playoffs, that's good in my book.

 

This is the reason I don't want low ceiling players like the UW CBs. Our staff has a good track record turning athletes into football players, and if you consider essentially the entire regular season as one long onramp, might as well go with the freaks and let them learn and develop. 

 

In my mind, it's our "safer" picks that haven't panned out as well lately (Ford, AJE, Basham [granted it's too early to dismiss him completely], for example).

[OldTimer1960]

12 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Beane is heavy on traits in rd 1.  I expect a jr age 20.5 to 21.5.  I think they will look at secondary and wr.  I think those will be players pushed down by a few Qbs and the amount of Dline and Oline drafted prior to 25.  I put secondary specifically and not just Cb b/c I can see them going with the best athlete even if he could be seen as a slot or saftey like Hill.  I think Olave or Skyy Moore could also be in play.  Losing Beasley is alot of production and targets getting a guy who can play slot but adds some speed would make sense to me. 

I’m not a big Sky Moore fan in round 1.

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Would not be a bad pick especially if they sign Haden in free agency. Ford would surely be cut though that may happen anyways. 

I'd still drat OT over a OG as I'm not sold on Brown just yet. Gives them more position flexibility but I like Johnson.  Would be ideal to go corner in the first and trade up in the second to get him. 

Ideal for me would be Olave/Wilson or Williams@ 25 + trading up for Zion rd 2 and trading up for a Martin Emerson rd 3.  
 

i think Dallas is going to take Zion in rd 1, but Jerry may not be able to pass on Burks, as similar as they may be being RAC demons

[Awwufelloff]

WR can have a massive impact in their first year. Waddle, Chase, Jefferson, etc...

[glazeduck]

35 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Why would you call Kyler Gordon “low ceiling”?  He has more than adequate speed, though not elite speed, but he has good size and some real explosiveness 39.5” vert. and he is an eager and aggressive tackler.  

I've seen Kyler play in person multiple times and I think the best descriptor I can give him is "solid"? He's certainly not bad, but I don't think he's exceptional at anything, and while he did test pretty well, that athleticism doesn't jump out in his play. Basically what I mean is, I don't see him becoming special, and relative to a lot of the guys listed below him, I see him as being fairly even with them in terms of what they could be long term, especially when you overlay our scheme and ability to develop and what we'd be wanting out of him. Maybe he's in the top of that tier, but if you can get a comparable guy with equal or greater upside with a later pick, why wouldn't you?

[chris heff]

My expectation is that Beane draft a player that turns out to be the greatest of all time at whatever position he plays.

[OldTimer1960]

16 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

I've seen Kyler play in person multiple times and I think the best descriptor I can give him is "solid"? He's certainly not bad, but I don't think he's exceptional at anything, and while he did test pretty well, that athleticism doesn't jump out in his play. Basically what I mean is, I don't see him becoming special, and relative to a lot of the guys listed below him, I see him as being fairly even with them in terms of what they could be long term, especially when you overlay our scheme and ability to develop and what we'd be wanting out of him. Maybe he's in the top of that tier, but if you can get a comparable guy with equal or greater upside with a later pick, why wouldn't you?

Fair enough.  We’ll have to see what Beane thinks of these guys.  As another poster said, beyond not being professional scouts, we don’t have access to player character information (interviews with player, coaches, trainers, teachers, etc), injury information- for example heard today that teams are a bit afraid of Kenyon Green’s knee, and we can’t see the players in person to estimate who is already maxed out and who still has room to grow.

[AuntieEm]

6 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

We are generally aligned, but the “#1 pass defense” stat is, in my opinion, very misleading.  They played an inordinate number of games against backup and rookie QBs and they also had the wind game in which NE attempted 3 passes.  I am not saying that they were a bad defense, but I think that they benefited greatly by circumstances.

    

     True much of their ranking is due to the circumstances they faced.  However, I like the range of circumstances opponents will face throughout Josh Allen's career.  He sets up his defenses to just need to keep things in front of them and playing with the lead more often than not sets them up to continue their ranking because they have the luxury of knowing they got an offense that can match up with any in the league.  It's so much easier to shutdown an offense when they have to take chances to hopefully keep up with what Josh can do.  Our defenses will rarely have to deal with Josh Allen like plays from.opposing QBs but on the odd plays they manage something Josh-like well our boys get lots of practice making plays against those types of plays so think they get an edge there.

Edited April 25, 2022 by AuntieEm

[intimidatortj]

2 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Objection to a lot of things in this OP.  First, the FO uses the draft for the future, not short term objectives, so grading in on the first year results is not the way to assess the value.  A key component of drafting for the future is using the draft as a cap management tool.  A great way to manage the cap is to use the 1st round pick with the BPA at a premium position of use.

 

Secondly, while Diggs was an excellent trade it pales in comparison to choosing JA17.  And this highlights the above, the first year results are not the way to assess how well a draft is done.  If for instance J Williams is picked and has a JA17 like trajectory where he becomes a top 5 WR in 2-3 years, it would be well worth it.

You missed the point.

[Logic]

Albert Breer's column today -- which is worth reading in full, by the way -- reinforces the prevailing thought about this draft class: it's not very top-heavy, does not offer many difference makers, but has great depth into the middle rounds:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/04/25/mmqb-nfl-draft-preview-rumors-32-teams-jaguars-shad-khan

It sounds to me like action at the bottom of the first round might be hotter than action at the top. Or, at least, it sure sounds that way, talking teams at the top of the draft pecking order. One told me that teams close to the bottom of the round have asked more about their interest in moving up from the top of the second round into the bottom of the first than they have about moving up within the first round. And that reflects the nature of the class in general.

“This is very much a depth class,” said an NFC executive. “You can build the base of your roster with picks this year. You can get some solid starters, and some contributors. But you’re not getting a lot of difference-makers." 

So how does that break down? As I see it, after dozens of conversations, the top tackles and pass rushers are valued this year, and then after that probably the top four receivers. But once you get through that group of 10 or so guys, the class flattens out a bunch, right in the mid-teens, where the 15th pick might not be worth much more than the 45th. And even the top group isn’t great—with a few execs having told me the last few months that the top dozen picks last year might be better than anyone this year. So what’s the upshot this year? It’s twofold. One, the second and third rounds should have plenty of gems. And two, it adds a lot more mystery to how the first round will play out for the rest of us.

[OldTimer1960]

30 minutes ago, AuntieEm said:

    

      Our defenses will rarely have to deal with Josh Allen like plays from.opposing QBs but on the odd plays they manage something Josh-like well our boys get lots of practice making plays against those types of plays so think they get an edge there.

I was with you until the bolded section.  

Established star QBs in the AFC:

Allen

Mahommes

Burrows

Herbert

Watson

Jackson

Matt Ryan

Russell Wilson

 

Up and Coming High Upside: Not all these guys will be good, but all high draft picks with talent

Trevor Lawrence

Zach Wilson

Mac Jones

Tua

 

 

 

Edited April 25, 2022 by OldTimer1960

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Ideal for me would be Olave/Wilson or Williams@ 25 + trading up for Zion rd 2 and trading up for a Martin Emerson rd 3.  
 

i think Dallas is going to take Zion in rd 1, but Jerry may not be able to pass on Burks, as similar as they may be being RAC demons

Assuming that Johnson would go in the top 10 of the 2nd, it is unlikely that they have the ammo without trading picks from next year to move up in round 2 for him - if they do, they won’t have a 3rd at all, much less ability to trade up in 3rd (unless current roster player is traded).

[Ethan in Cleveland]

30 minutes ago, Logic said:

Albert Breer's column today -- which is worth reading in full, by the way -- reinforces the prevailing thought about this draft class: it's not very top-heavy, does not offer many difference makers, but has great depth into the middle rounds:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/04/25/mmqb-nfl-draft-preview-rumors-32-teams-jaguars-shad-khan

It sounds to me like action at the bottom of the first round might be hotter than action at the top. Or, at least, it sure sounds that way, talking teams at the top of the draft pecking order. One told me that teams close to the bottom of the round have asked more about their interest in moving up from the top of the second round into the bottom of the first than they have about moving up within the first round. And that reflects the nature of the class in general.

“This is very much a depth class,” said an NFC executive. “You can build the base of your roster with picks this year. You can get some solid starters, and some contributors. But you’re not getting a lot of difference-makers." 

So how does that break down? As I see it, after dozens of conversations, the top tackles and pass rushers are valued this year, and then after that probably the top four receivers. But once you get through that group of 10 or so guys, the class flattens out a bunch, right in the mid-teens, where the 15th pick might not be worth much more than the 45th. And even the top group isn’t great—with a few execs having told me the last few months that the top dozen picks last year might be better than anyone this year. So what’s the upshot this year? It’s twofold. One, the second and third rounds should have plenty of gems. And two, it adds a lot more mystery to how the first round will play out for the rest of us.

I agree. In most years there is not much difference between 15 and 45 and this year even more so. That is in part because no high end QBs will go early to push others down the board. 

You can spin a narrative anyway with reasonable logic. Trade up and mortgage the future to get a top CB. Stay put and hope a decent CB is left or one of the WRs fall, or worse case scenario get a solid OL. And then you can argue drop out of the first round and get an extra pick in 2nd or 3rd round. You lose out on the fifth year option but having four picks in the top 100 as opposed to 3 may be worth it.

Lastly a lot could depend on what they do with Edmunds. Do they trade him and immediately draft his replacement? That would create several ripples in the draft order for the Bills.  I would but I don't think Beane will. 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

Beane is heavy on traits in rd 1.  I expect a jr age 20.5 to 21.5.  I think they will look at secondary and wr.  I think those will be players pushed down by a few Qbs and the amount of Dline and Oline drafted prior to 25.  I put secondary specifically and not just Cb b/c I can see them going with the best athlete even if he could be seen as a slot or saftey like Hill.  I think Olave or Skyy Moore could also be in play.  Losing Beasley is alot of production and targets getting a guy who can play slot but adds some speed would make sense to me. 

I think this says what I've been thinking for a while.  It could even be a DT.   I think McBeane will see a guy, a special talent with character grades that are A+, and they'll go get him.  It's possible the guy will fall to 25, but I think it's more likely that they'll see him at 18, a guy they would have taken in the top 10, and they'll call a few teams to see who is willing to move back a few spots.  They'll swap firsts to get to 19-22 if the guy continues to fall. 

 

DB, WR, or DT.   Possibly even OG or TE, but those seem less likely.  A team can stumble along with a pretty high level of success without ever having gone after a great player at those positions; you can just back and fill until the right guy falls into your lap.  But at DB, WR, and DL you MUST be good or it's hard to be a great team.  Also at OT, but where the Bills are sitting now, it's hard to imagine a guy being such a sure thing at OT that Beane would move way up to get him.  When you get a chance to get a special guy at the right position, you have to take it.  That's exactly what Beane did with Josh and Tremaine.  He's done it with others, too, with mixed success.  But the point isn't whether the move worked or not; the point is that Beane likes to do it if he sees a guy he likes in key positions.  

 

As they get into the mid-teens, if Beane doesn't have one of those guys - a guy he thinks has already fallen too far, then Beane will sit tight and let the draft fall to him.  Most likely he'll have a handful of guys - two to five guys - falling, and he'll just take the guy who's highest on his board. 

 

The least likely scenario is that no one that he has a first round grade on falls to him, and he trades out.   Possible, but I don't see it.  Beane likes getting guys; he doesn't like watching others get guys.   It will take some real discipline on his part to trade out of the first round.   We saw Belichick do it often.   It meant Belichick was being hard nosed about how good he thought guys actually were - he wasn't willing to use the pick just because it was his turn.  He would rather have two seconds and two thirds than one each, 1, 2, 3.

 

I think the Bills will trade up.

[NewEra]

32 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Assuming that Johnson would go in the top 10 of the 2nd, it is unlikely that they have the ammo without trading picks from next year to move up in round 2 for him - if they do, they won’t have a 3rd at all, much less ability to trade up in 3rd (unless current roster player is traded).

I’m 💯 ok with trading picks next year.  

[Shaw66]

14 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I agree. In most years there is not much difference between 15 and 45 and this year even more so. That is in part because no high end QBs will go early to push others down the board. 

You can spin a narrative anyway with reasonable logic. Trade up and mortgage the future to get a top CB. Stay put and hope a decent CB is left or one of the WRs fall, or worse case scenario get a solid OL. And then you can argue drop out of the first round and get an extra pick in 2nd or 3rd round. You lose out on the fifth year option but having four picks in the top 100 as opposed to 3 may be worth it.

Lastly a lot could depend on what they do with Edmunds. Do they trade him and immediately draft his replacement? That would create several ripples in the draft order for the Bills.  I would but I don't think Beane will. 

This and the Breer comments that Logic posted are very interesting.   If that's a true description of the nature of the talent in this year's draft, then it would be less likely that we'll see Beane move up, simply because it doesn't sound likely that there are any really special guys to move up for.   Interestingly, that would mean having the #10 this year is pretty tough, because there aren't any guys you want that badly, and there aren't any teams that want to give you much to move up to your spot.   A #10 this year is worth less than a #10 in other years.  And that means teams will adjust their draft value charts when considering trades.  

 

And you just said what I just said, too - four out of the guys ranked 30-100 is better than one in the top 30 and two in the 30-100.   But Beane may find that there are several teams where he is (between 20 and 32), looking to trade back.  The market of buyers to move up may be so thin that he may think the better deal is to move at a bargain price.   You can see how what Beane says is actually true - you have to be prepared to move in a variety of ways, because you don't know what market is going to look like until you get there.  

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

I’m 💯 ok with trading picks next year.  

I'm not.  I'm in it for the long term - just keep building with what falls to you as it falls.  Spend to your cap in dollars and use this year's picks, collecting talent that becomes available.   Sometimes it will be first pick you move up for, sometimes it will be a high pick that you got from another team in a trade that turned out well, sometimes it will be a free agent, like Miller.  But don't mortgage your future by overspending cap or giving up next year's picks.  

 

McDermott has to trust Beane to find the talent, and neither McDermott nor Beane should do things that can hamstring Beane in future years.  So far, Beane has an excellent track record.  

[YoloinOhio]

To become the best version of himself in a Bills uni

[NewEra]

13 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm not.  I'm in it for the long term - just keep building with what falls to you as it falls.  Spend to your cap in dollars and use this year's picks, collecting talent that becomes available.   Sometimes it will be first pick you move up for, sometimes it will be a high pick that you got from another team in a trade that turned out well, sometimes it will be a free agent, like Miller.  But don't mortgage your future by overspending cap or giving up next year's picks.  

 

McDermott has to trust Beane to find the talent, and neither McDermott nor Beane should do things that can hamstring Beane in future years.  So far, Beane has an excellent track record.  

Trading a pick next year doesn’t preclude being in it for long term.  If we’re getting a first round talent in rd 2, I’m all for it.  

[Buffalo716]

4 hours ago, NewEra said:

I’ve said as much.  If their top rated player on the board is a CB, I hope that they take him.  I just don’t want them to reach on a corner.  Looking at this draft, you don’t think that the 2nd and 3rd round options I’ve listed could be viable in our scheme?  I do.  I also think that some of the vet FAs could come in and hold down the fort like a Dane did last season.  Our best asset doesn’t have to be used on a corner just because it’s our biggest hole.  You know that’s not how you draft.  
 

their history has shown that they don’t place nearly as much value on cb2 as other positions.  In 3 drafts…. He’s drafted 1 corner…..in the 7th round.  They’ve shown that they can run a very good D with 2 nobodies @ corner.   Kevin Johnson and EJ EJ Gaines played very well in our system.  Until they show that shown that they have changed that philosophy, I don’t see why we would assume they will.  

 

When every defensive player that’s in the rotation is either a first or 2nd round pick or is getting paid decent money defense, one MUST cut corners in certain areas.  The one area where we shouldn’t be cutting corners is protecting our franchise QB and giving him playmakers.  Empower him.  

 

We also have Siran Neal and Nick Mccloud, who i have tempered hopes for.  
 

in short….we don’t have to spend our first rd pick on a cornerback just because it’s our biggest need at the moment.  We should be taking the BPA at a relative area of need.  If that’s cb, that’s great for us and I’m all for it.  Just don’t reach.  
 

I don’t think Booth or Hill are reaches @ 25.  I think the other guys might be (McDuffie only based on his T-rex status, which McB obviously cares about).   

It is very misleading…..but it’s true. Teams had very little success passing on us all season.  It has a lot to do with the lack of good QBs we faced last year.  It also had a lot to do with our scheme, our safeties and our pass rush.  Add von Miller.  Add tredavious white mid season.  

I would say our defensive success in the secondary has as much to do with the scheme as it does with our two all pros at safety

 

They are erasers in the backfield

 

If you watch every other game on NFL Sunday you will see teams getting beat deep week in and week out... Poyer and Hyde were not beat over the top on an actual bomb all year 

 

They do make up for our cornerbacks mistakes... Number two corner will be a lot more important when we don't have both of those all pros back there... And they're getting up there in age

 

Some of the guys you mentioned, have the talent to develop into a starter... But you don't want to necessarily plug them in day one... You Really don't want to plug in any rookie except a blue chip 

 

McDermott's system has been elite against bad teams.. good quarterbacks don't have as much problem with his scheme.. cuz they knowo they can attack the weak corner playing soft coverage

 

We are the thinnest team at outside corner in the NFL.. literally two guys right now and one is coming off a torn ACL.. I do think it's a big need and there's actual first round talent who might be available

 

I've never been worn for reaching just to reach