What are your expectations for the rookie Beane drafts in the 1st round this year?

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

In order to manage the cap, the Bills need to find 4 players from this draft who turn into starters over the next 2 seasons. 

Wow that is a tall order for any GM on any team even more difficult on a roster as loaded as the Bills.

[intimidatortj]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Would be nice to get Greg Rousseau-like production.

 

Rousseau hit a rookie wall as a pass rusher.........the difference between his play early in the season in KC when he had that great interception.......versus in the playoffs was literally enough to decide both games.

 

But that's exactly why it's foolish to rely on rookies to address your biggest needs on a championship roster.

 

Fans expecting 20 games of contest changing play from pick #25 are asking A WHOLE LOT more of the pick than they can reasonably expect.

 

And that shouldn't be the objective of a 1st round pick..........that should be too find a long term asset at a position you would have to pay $20M-$30M aav to get on the open market 3-5 years down the road.    Franchise building blocks.

 

But Rousseau was actually also really good.........almost the exception.........he lead all NFL defensive lineman in total run stops despite only playing 49% of his teams snaps.

Well said.

 

If the Bills draft a CB, and the CB becomes a starter before the end of the fall, I think that would be a win.

If the rookie CB starts Day 1, that would be super successful IMO.

16 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Wow that is a tall order for any GM on any team even more difficult on a roster as loaded as the Bills.

Very tall order.  Look at the Bills 2019 Draft.   They got 3 starters out of their 8 picks.  Which is considered successful. 

 

1) Ed Oliver, DL – solid starter

2) Cody Ford, OL - bust

3) Devin Singletary, RB – ok starter

3) Dawson Knox, TE – really solid starter

5) Vosean Joseph, LB - flush

6) Jaquan Johnson, S - meh

7) Darryl Johnson, OLB - push

7b) Tommy Sweeney, TE - whatever

[mjt328]

Depends on the player and position.

 

We don't have many open spots in the starting lineup (if any), and it would be surprising for a rookie to get significant playing time in Year One.  A few exceptions may be at Running Back, Guard and Cornerback.  

 

Don't forget that last season, the Bills were not expecting ANY rookies to start.  But Greg Rousseau looked way too good in training camp to keep on the bench, so they slid him ahead of Mario Addison.  But even then, Rousseau was in a heavy rotation and hardly got on the field for 3rd Down passing plays.  Spencer Brown was also a surprise start, due to Darryl Williams regressing and being pushed inside.

 

Brandon Beane likes to draft guys with lots of physical tools and higher potential.  This usually means it takes 2-3 years before that player starts really producing on the field.  Great examples last year were with both Ed Oliver and Dawson Knox, who both had breakout seasons.  Top candidates for this year would be Gabe Davis, Dane Jackson and A.J. Epenesa.

 

[Einstein's Dog]

12 hours ago, intimidatortj said:

PS the best 1st round pick was probably trading the pick to get Stefon Diggs.  Diggs first year in Buffalo was pretty darn good.

Objection to a lot of things in this OP.  First, the FO uses the draft for the future, not short term objectives, so grading in on the first year results is not the way to assess the value.  A key component of drafting for the future is using the draft as a cap management tool.  A great way to manage the cap is to use the 1st round pick with the BPA at a premium position of use.

 

Secondly, while Diggs was an excellent trade it pales in comparison to choosing JA17.  And this highlights the above, the first year results are not the way to assess how well a draft is done.  If for instance J Williams is picked and has a JA17 like trajectory where he becomes a top 5 WR in 2-3 years, it would be well worth it.

[MWK]

I just want someone who will contribute. No o-linemen that will sit the bench this year. No safeties unless Poyer goes, no linebackers unless Edmunds goes. Get someone who can help. I hate running backs early, but at least Hall would help

Edited April 25, 2022 by MWK

[Shaw66]

9 hours ago, NewEra said:

And whoever it is will be getting the ultimate support system with McD and Frazier + Hyde and Poyer backing them up. 

 

Their track record shows they don’t need 1st rd corners. They need traits. Traits can be had throughout the draft.  Dane Jackson and Levi Wallace were our starting corners for almost half the year and we had the #1 pass d…..by FAR.   Now we have Von Miller and will have Tre’davious back.  

 

This is the point so many people miss. The fact that the Bill's are so deep into team concepts, especially on D, makes it easier to insert talented young players with the intangibles Beanr and McDermott value highly.  It's what makes "next man up" work.  

 

As I said earlier, by the end of the season the Bills will have at least a couple of rookies starting.  

 

I'm still expecting a trade up in the first or second round.  One or two starters should come in the first two rounds, or a surprise from later rounds.  Guard, corner, tight end, running back, d tackle, wide out.    

[ndirish1978]

I expect to get a rotational starter who flashes, I don't see a gamechanger at 25

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

I’ve said as much.  If their top rated player on the board is a CB, I hope that they take him.  I just don’t want them to reach on a corner.  Looking at this draft, you don’t think that the 2nd and 3rd round options I’ve listed could be viable in our scheme?  I do.  I also think that some of the vet FAs could come in and hold down the fort like a Dane did last season.  Our best asset doesn’t have to be used on a corner just because it’s our biggest hole.  You know that’s not how you draft.  
 

their history has shown that they don’t place nearly as much value on cb2 as other positions.  In 3 drafts…. He’s drafted 1 corner…..in the 7th round.  They’ve shown that they can run a very good D with 2 nobodies @ corner.   Kevin Johnson and EJ EJ Gaines played very well in our system.  Until they show that shown that they have changed that philosophy, I don’t see why we would assume they will.  

 

When every defensive player that’s in the rotation is either a first or 2nd round pick or is getting paid decent money defense, one MUST cut corners in certain areas.  The one area where we shouldn’t be cutting corners is protecting our franchise QB and giving him playmakers.  Empower him.  

 

We also have Siran Neal and Nick Mccloud, who i have tempered hopes for.  
 

in short….we don’t have to spend our first rd pick on a cornerback just because it’s our biggest need at the moment.  We should be taking the BPA at a relative area of need.  If that’s cb, that’s great for us and I’m all for it.  Just don’t reach.  
 

I don’t think Booth or Hill are reaches @ 25.  I think the other guys might be (McDuffie only based on his T-rex status, which McB obviously cares about).   

It is very misleading…..but it’s true. Teams had very little success passing on us all season.  It has a lot to do with the lack of good QBs we faced last year.  It also had a lot to do with our scheme, our safeties and our pass rush.  Add von Miller.  Add tredavious white mid season.  

We are pretty much aligned.  Where I differ is in having faith that Dane Jackson and anybody currently on the roster can adequately hold down the fort for the first month or two, if required.  Likewise, I think some of the 2nd and later CBS you listed could be decent long-term options, but most of them (I think) would be liabilities early due to coming from lower level schools and/or experience at the position.  Emerson is the exception there, but his athletic ability, not just speed, is not optimal.  I think that until they sign a vet with something left in the tank, that they have to plan for the possibility that White isn’t ready for the start of the season.

 

If Jameson Williams is there at 25, great (if the Drs are happy with his injury recovery prospects).  If he isn’t and they are looKing at Burks, Dotson, Pickens then I don’t think those are necessarily better players than say, Booth or Gordon.  Likewise, I really like Zion Johnson, but G at 25 comes with the 2nd contract conundrum.  It is unlikely that any of the top OTs will be left and I am firmly in the no category for Breece Hall - fine player, but RB have limited life and he has a lot of mileage on him from college.

 

i guess beyond Williams, I might consider Christian Watson instead of, say, Kyler Gordon, but I think the opinions on Watson have cooled some since the height of Watson Mania after the combine.  I know PFF isn’t be-all end-all, but Watson is currently 75th on their rankings.  Really nice prospect, but round one coming with drop concerns?
 

Long winded way to say, I understand that if Booth isn’t available, that Gordon or another CB might be a small reach, but so will most anyone left at 25, barring a major surprise.

Edited April 25, 2022 by OldTimer1960

[Greg S]

Peter King's mock has the Bills taking...

 

 

25. Buffalo Bills: Zion Johnson, offensive lineman, Boston College 

One of the very few issues that Buffalo has is at guard where Rodger Saffold is due to start at right guard this year at age 34 and the undrafted Ryan Bates is the likely left guard. To me, Johnson’s the perfect call here because even if Saffold and Bates turn out great in 2022, it seems a short-term fix. In five college seasons—two years at Davidson, one at BC after transferring—Johnson started 49 games. Give me a guy with 36 starts at guard and 13 at left tackle (in the ACC). Give me a guy who was a two-year captain after transferring. Give me a guy who never missed a game in five college seasons due to injury (58 games played in all). He’s a likely interior lineman, which lessens his value slightly. But his intelligence, football acumen and experience gives NFL GMs confidence Johnson can be a starter in 2022.

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

I expect to get a rotational starter who flashes, I don't see a gamechanger at 25

Right.   I mean, a gamechanger is possible - we could look back three or four years from now and be saying that someone was the steal of the draft, but that isn't likely.  On the other hand, I don't know that I would call Tre'Davious a "gamechanger," but he's a great player to have gotten at the bottom of round one.  Give Oliver another year or two and see what you think.  Give Rousseau another year or two and see what you think.  Those guys aren't "gamechangers," but they may have long careers in Buffalo.  

 

The Bills have Josh Allen, Stephon Diggs, and Von Miller.  They're doing okay in the game-changer department.  

 

Gamechangers come out of the top 10 of the draft and occasional surprises.  Bills aren't likely to get one this year (unless there's a trade up), but I'm confident they'll get guys who contribute this season.

[Shaw66]

26 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

We are pretty much aligned.  Where I differ is in having faith that Dane Jackson and anybody currently on the roster can adequately hold down the fort for the first month or two, if required.  Likewise, I think some of the 2nd and later CBS you listed could be decent long-term options, but most of them (I think) would be liabilities early due to coming from lower level schools and/or experience at the position.  Emerson is the exception there, but his athletic ability, not just speed, is not optimal.  I think that until they sign a vet with something left in the tank, that they have to plan for the possibility that White isn’t ready for the start of the season.

 

If Jameson Williams is there at 25, great (if the Drs are happy with his injury recovery prospects).  If he isn’t and they are looKing at Burks, Dotson, Pickens then I don’t think those are necessarily better players than say, Booth or Gordon.  Likewise, I really like Zion Johnson, but G at 25 comes with the 2nd contract conundrum.  It is unlikely that any of the top OTs will be left and I am firmly in the no category for Breece Hall - fine player, but RB have limited life and he has a lot of mileage on him from college.

 

i guess beyond Williams, I might consider Christian Watson instead of, say, Kyler Gordon, but I think the opinions on Watson have cooled some since the height of Watson Mania after the combine.  I know PFF isn’t be-all end-all, but Watson is currently 75th on their rankings.  Really nice prospect, but round one coming with drop concerns?
 

Long winded way to say, I understand that if Booth isn’t available, that Gordon or another CB might be a small reach, but so will most anyone left at 25, barring a major surprise.

I'll write a little more about what I just said.   And I'll say that I know nothing about any of these players you mention.  I'm talking in generalities.  

 

I'm in the guard-conundrum camp with you.  If the Bills don't see the next Rodger Saffold in round one, I don't think they go guard.  And if they do see him, they probably will trade up to get him.  Bills will trade up if they see a player they are confident they will re-sign at the end of his rookie deal.  If they think Johnson is that guy, they'll go get him.  

 

I just think you miss the point generally about how McDermott operates.  I'm guessing that all these guys you mention are very good athletes and very good football players, just not standout players who are likely to be stars.  That's okay with McDermott, that's all he needs.  I don't remember, but I don't think the NFL world was shocked when White fell to 27 or wherever the Bills took him.  Four cornerbacks were taken ahead of White. I think McDermott may have been shocked, because McDermott saw a very good athlete who had the character that McDermott builds his team on - competitiveness, team orientation, tireless worker.   The Bills prioritize those characteristics, and what it does for them is allow them to get great play out of guys who are not All-Pro players.   McDermott got a lot out of Jerry Hughes, for example.   Hughes was someone else's late first-round guy, never a standout, but a guy who contributed a lot in a great defense.  

 

The Bills found the kind of character they wanted in Rousseau and in Spencer Brown, along with very good but not standout physical talent.  If the Bills find that kind of character in a corner who has shown solid play in college, I expect the Bills will go get him, maybe trade up five spots or so to get him.  

 

Neither Poyer nor Hyde is a top-3 or even top-5 safety in the league, when you're talking straight play-making ability.   I mean, sure, you can argue that point, but they aren't standout superstars, not Troy Palomalu or anything like that.  But together in this system, they are outstanding.   I don't think White is a standout corner, either.   He's excellent at his position, but he is not the pure shutdown corner teams pay premium dollars for.  If Beane can find another White, a guy who's well-rated in the draft but not projected to be an All-Pro, I expect Beane will go after him.   That guy may not look like a star to us, but McBeane are looking at things that we don't see readily.  

 

A defensive backfield with Hyde, Poyer, and two Whites looks pretty good to me.  

 

Edited April 25, 2022 by Shaw66

[NewEra]

18 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

We are pretty much aligned.  Where I differ is in having faith that Dane Jackson and anybody currently on the roster can adequately hold down the fort for the first month or two, if required.  Likewise, I think some of the 2nd and later CBS you listed could be decent long-term options, but most of them (I think) would be liabilities early due to coming from lower level schools and/or experience at the position.  Emerson is the exception there, but his athletic ability, not just speed, is not optimal.  I think that until they sign a vet with something left in the tank, that they have to plan for the possibility that White isn’t ready for the start of the season.

 

If Jameson Williams is there at 25, great (if the Drs are happy with his injury recovery prospects).  If he isn’t and they are looKing at Burks, Dotson, Pickens then I don’t think those are necessarily better players than say, Booth or Gordon.  Likewise, I really like Zion Johnson, but G at 25 comes with the 2nd contract conundrum.  It is unlikely that any of the top OTs will be left and I am firmly in the no category for Breece Hall - fine player, but RB have limited life and he has a lot of mileage on him from college.

 

i guess beyond Williams, I might consider Christian Watson instead of, say, Kyler Gordon, but I think the opinions on Watson have cooled some since the height of Watson Mania after the combine.  I know PFF isn’t be-all end-all, but Watson is currently 75th on their rankings.  Really nice prospect, but round one coming with drop concerns?
 

Long winded way to say, I understand that if Booth isn’t available, that Gordon or another CB might be a small reach, but so will most anyone left at 25, barring a major surprise.

We don’t differ there in the least. I feel the same.  Talking about the CURRENT roster, we aren’t good enough.  No doubt.  It’s a big hole.  I’ve said that numerous times. 
 

You don’t feel that we can draft a guy in rd 2 or 3 that can play opposite Dane til Tre returns?  That guy could also take over the cb2 spot when Tre returns.  Dane to become depth. Several free agents can fill the role of Kevin Johnson/Dane last season.  
 

Sure, they’re going to get beat.  Everyone gets beat. It’s 2022.  There wasn’t ONE elite defense in all of the NFL last year.  Just how the NFL likes it.  
 

again….just don’t reach to fill a need.  That’s all I’m saying.  If there’s a corner that is among the top 3-5 BPA, take him.  If not, don’t reach. 

 

 

[Patrick Duffy]

48 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm still expecting a trade up in the first or second round.  One or two starters should come in the first two rounds, or a surprise from later rounds.  Guard, corner, tight end, running back, d tackle, wide out. 

Agree...I think so too. Was talking about this yesterday, my guess is more likely the 2nd round than 1st. Depending how things play out it could be either though

[NewEra]

28 minutes ago, Greg S said:

Peter King's mock has the Bills taking...

 

 

25. Buffalo Bills: Zion Johnson, offensive lineman, Boston College 

One of the very few issues that Buffalo has is at guard where Rodger Saffold is due to start at right guard this year at age 34 and the undrafted Ryan Bates is the likely left guard. To me, Johnson’s the perfect call here because even if Saffold and Bates turn out great in 2022, it seems a short-term fix. In five college seasons—two years at Davidson, one at BC after transferring—Johnson started 49 games. Give me a guy with 36 starts at guard and 13 at left tackle (in the ACC). Give me a guy who was a two-year captain after transferring. Give me a guy who never missed a game in five college seasons due to injury (58 games played in all). He’s a likely interior lineman, which lessens his value slightly. But his intelligence, football acumen and experience gives NFL GMs confidence Johnson can be a starter in 2022.

He’s not the sexiest pick, but I’d much rather draft him than a RB.  Looks to be a top 10 in the NFL for the next decade…. Protecting Josh Allen and blasting holes for the RB.  Most would prefer to draft a tackle (and I’m all for drafting penning if he’s there) but that would require some maneuvering and possibly some hurt feelings by moving Dawkins to Lg.  He’d be a great building block for our offense.  

[glazeduck]

13 hours ago, Southern_Bills said:

If it's a RB, I'd expect a lot honestly, if that isn't the expectation don't draft him.

 

If it's a CB, round into starter level play by the end of the season/playoff stretch. 

 

Any other position, good luck with getting snaps.

Yeah, this is basically it -- totally depends on the player and position, but we should be good enough to make the playoffs without getting superstar contribution from a rookie. If they're ready to play like a dependable starter by the playoffs, that's good in my book.

 

This is the reason I don't want low ceiling players like the UW CBs. Our staff has a good track record turning athletes into football players, and if you consider essentially the entire regular season as one long onramp, might as well go with the freaks and let them learn and develop. 

 

In my mind, it's our "safer" picks that haven't panned out as well lately (Ford, AJE, Basham [granted it's too early to dismiss him completely], for example).

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Objection to a lot of things in this OP.  First, the FO uses the draft for the future, not short term objectives, so grading in on the first year results is not the way to assess the value.  A key component of drafting for the future is using the draft as a cap management tool.  A great way to manage the cap is to use the 1st round pick with the BPA at a premium position of use.

 

Secondly, while Diggs was an excellent trade it pales in comparison to choosing JA17.  And this highlights the above, the first year results are not the way to assess how well a draft is done.  If for instance J Williams is picked and has a JA17 like trajectory where he becomes a top 5 WR in 2-3 years, it would be well worth it.

Except you are wrong about FO not drafting for immediate need.

White (drafted by McD), Edmunds, Oliver, and Rousseau were immediate starters at positions of need.  You can only make the argument that Allen was not supposed to start right away but obviously all the moves made by Beane were done to get a QB. 

So please stop with the BPA stuff.  

 

Everything else you stated is correct. Beane needs to hit on a draft pick or two in this draft to help manage the cap and as you said it takes a few years to know the true impact of the player. Oliver has gotten better at a position that is very difficult to play well right away. Edmunds is Edmunds. When Beane drafts a CB he will start day 1 and hopefully he gets better each week.

[OldTimer1960]

15 minutes ago, NewEra said:

He’s not the sexiest pick, but I’d much rather draft him than a RB.  Looks to be a top 10 in the NFL for the next decade…. Protecting Josh Allen and blasting holes for the RB.  Most would prefer to draft a tackle (and I’m all for drafting penning if he’s there) but that would require some maneuvering and possibly some hurt feelings by moving Dawkins to Lg.  He’d be a great building block for our offense.  

For sure, they could do much worse than taking Zion Johnson.  Looks to be a very good player with Bills’ preferred football character, helps protect the franchise.  Still, not the most important position and he doesn’t seem to have ability to play OT even in a pinch. 

5 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Yeah, this is basically it -- totally depends on the player and position, but we should be good enough to make the playoffs without getting superstar contribution from a rookie. If they're ready to play like a dependable starter by the playoffs, that's good in my book.

 

This is the reason I don't want low ceiling players like the UW CBs. Our staff has a good track record turning athletes into football players, and if you consider essentially the entire regular season as one long onramp, might as well go with the freaks and let them learn and develop. 

 

In my mind, it's our "safer" picks that haven't panned out as well lately (Ford, AJE, Basham [granted it's too early to dismiss him completely], for example).

Why would you call Kyler Gordon “low ceiling”?  He has more than adequate speed, though not elite speed, but he has good size and some real explosiveness 39.5” vert. and he is an eager and aggressive tackler.  

[Mat68]

Beane is heavy on traits in rd 1.  I expect a jr age 20.5 to 21.5.  I think they will look at secondary and wr.  I think those will be players pushed down by a few Qbs and the amount of Dline and Oline drafted prior to 25.  I put secondary specifically and not just Cb b/c I can see them going with the best athlete even if he could be seen as a slot or saftey like Hill.  I think Olave or Skyy Moore could also be in play.  Losing Beasley is alot of production and targets getting a guy who can play slot but adds some speed would make sense to me. 

[Shaw66]

36 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

Agree...I think so too. Was talking about this yesterday, my guess is more likely the 2nd round than 1st. Depending how things play out it could be either though

Yes, it could be first or second.  It's impossible to know which players are on McBeane's list.  We can tell from all the scouting reports who has talent, but Beane and McDermott's list is driven by character issues that they identify in personal interviews, and they don't share what they learn in the interviews until after they draft guys.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

Peter King's mock has the Bills taking...

 

 

25. Buffalo Bills: Zion Johnson, offensive lineman, Boston College 

One of the very few issues that Buffalo has is at guard where Rodger Saffold is due to start at right guard this year at age 34 and the undrafted Ryan Bates is the likely left guard. To me, Johnson’s the perfect call here because even if Saffold and Bates turn out great in 2022, it seems a short-term fix. In five college seasons—two years at Davidson, one at BC after transferring—Johnson started 49 games. Give me a guy with 36 starts at guard and 13 at left tackle (in the ACC). Give me a guy who was a two-year captain after transferring. Give me a guy who never missed a game in five college seasons due to injury (58 games played in all). He’s a likely interior lineman, which lessens his value slightly. But his intelligence, football acumen and experience gives NFL GMs confidence Johnson can be a starter in 2022.

Would not be a bad pick especially if they sign Haden in free agency. Ford would surely be cut though that may happen anyways. 

I'd still drat OT over a OG as I'm not sold on Brown just yet. Gives them more position flexibility but I like Johnson.  Would be ideal to go corner in the first and trade up in the second to get him.