Deebo Samuel tells 49ers not to offer extension because he wants to be traded

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, syhuang said:

 

While it has been discussed Bills' worst YAC has something to do with offense design, it's also important to remember 49ers' play design contributes to Deebo's wonderful YAC stat.

 

Deebo definitely is shifty, he plays like a RB and is used as a RB often. 49ers' offense often calls WR screens for Deebo and let him gain yards like a RB. I don't recall Bills called that many WR screens, definitely in much lower rate than 49ers and Deebo. Many of Deebo's YAC comes from WR screens. If you check his game logs, you can easily find plays like below:

 

-------------------

1st & 10 at SF 34

(0:33 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Garoppolo pass short left to B.Aiyuk to SF 32 for -2 yards. Lateral to D.Samuel pushed ob at SF 42 for 10 yards (J.Ramsey). 12-YAC

-------------------

2nd & 10 at SF 26

(1:45 - 2nd) (Shotgun) T.Lance pass short left to D.Samuel to SF 27 for 1 yard (D.King; J.Greenard). Caught SF 19. 8-YAC

-------------------

(9:04 - 1st) (Shotgun) J.Garoppolo pass short left to D.Samuel to IND 16 for no gain (B.Okereke). Caught at IND 20. 4-YAC

-------------------

2nd & 2 at SEA 49

(12:03 - 1st) (Shotgun) J.Garoppolo pass short left to D.Samuel to SEA 28 for 21 yards (D.Reed). PENALTY on SF-T.Sherfield, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 44. Caught at SF 49. 23-YAC

-------------------

(13:01 - 3rd) 10-J.Garoppolo at QB. (Shotgun) J.Garoppolo pass short left to D.Samuel to SF 47 for 19 yards (A.Amos, D.Campbell). Caught at SF 25. 22-YAC

-------------------
1st & 10 at GB 25

(10:12 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Garoppolo pass short middle to D.Samuel to GB 24 for 1 yard (D.Campbell). Caught at GB 30. 6-YAC

-------------------
 

 

This chart below is Deebo's week 4 target chart where he gets 88 YAC among his 156 total rec yards. On the surface, he is great at YAC. However, we can see majority of his YAC comes from two WR screens to the left and one long touchdown on the right sideline, which is a blown coverage and has nothing to do with his YAC ability.

 

 

 

Of course, this is from one game and we can easily find plays showing Deebo breaking tackles, having quick acceleration, or changing direction to have a good YAC gain. However, just keep in mind YAC has a lot to do with both Bills' and 49ers' offense design.

 

It doesn't take away Deebo's ability but once we take offense into account, the YAC differential isn't likely to be fixed by one player alone like Deebo.  Calling more WR screens to Mckenzie probably would have improved Bills' YAC quite a bit last season, but that might not be for the best of Bills offense.

 

 

I will reiterate:

 

Depth of average reception (aka ybr):

 

Diggs 8.7

Samuel 8.3

 

YAC per reception

 

Diggs 3.2

Samuel 10

 

So about the same depth but more than 3x the YAC.

 

Samuel is just difficult to bring down after at the catch.........Diggs is difficult to stop until the catch point........but not good enough to be above average at it in the Bills offense(league average YAC is 3.4).

 

Calling more screens to a guy like McKenzie........who is your 4th or 5th best receiver and only a threat to catch shorter passes........can help but isn't much of a solution.

 

There is no element of surprise......they can squat on his routes.........and he isn't a contact balance runner and he doesn't have elite speed.

 

The reason why the screens they threw to John Brown were so successful was because teams had to respect him getting over the top of the defense.

 

 

 

[syhuang]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I will reiterate:

 

Depth of average reception (aka ybr):

 

Diggs 8.7

Samuel 8.3

 

YAC per reception

 

Diggs 3.2

Samuel 10

 

So about the same depth but more than 3x the YAC.

 

 

 

 

You know these are averages, right? It doesn't mean Samuel's YAC often comes from the 8~9 yard receptions.

WR screens inflates his YAC numbers. In the meantime, WR screens also reduces his average reception depth. In other words, his non-WR-screen average receiving depth is actually higher than 8.3. Don't get me wrong, Samuel is definitely shifty and hard to bring down, but his wonderful 10 average yard after catch does benefit from 49ers' play calling and good blocking in general.

 

Also, your reply regarding McKenzie is exactly my point. Buffalo probably could have increased their YAC last year by calling more WR screens but, unlike 49ers' offense, that's likely not for the best for Bills' offense.

 

Anyway, the point is that offense scheme and design are big part of YAC, one player alone may not make a major difference.

 

 

Edited April 26, 2022 by syhuang

[BADOLBILZ]

Just now, syhuang said:

 

You know these are averages, right? It doesn't mean Samuel's YAC often comes from the 8.3 yard receptions.

We screens inflates his YAC numbers. In the meantime, WR screens also reduces his average reception depth. In other words, his non-WR-screen depth is actually higher than 8.3 average of all passes.

 

 

I'm sorry, but your argument makes no sense.    Watch his highlights.    They look nothing like you are describing.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

9 hours ago, syhuang said:

 

While it has been discussed Bills' worst YAC has something to do with offense design, it's also important to remember 49ers' play design contributes to Deebo's wonderful YAC stat.

 

Deebo definitely is shifty, he plays like a RB and is used as a RB often. 49ers' offense often calls WR screens for Deebo and let him gain yards like a RB. I don't recall Bills called that many WR screens, definitely in much lower rate than 49ers and Deebo. Many of Deebo's YAC comes from WR screens. If you check his game logs, you can easily find plays like below:

 

-------------------

1st & 10 at SF 34

(0:33 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Garoppolo pass short left to B.Aiyuk to SF 32 for -2 yards. Lateral to D.Samuel pushed ob at SF 42 for 10 yards (J.Ramsey). 12-YAC

-------------------

2nd & 10 at SF 26

(1:45 - 2nd) (Shotgun) T.Lance pass short left to D.Samuel to SF 27 for 1 yard (D.King; J.Greenard). Caught SF 19. 8-YAC

-------------------

(9:04 - 1st) (Shotgun) J.Garoppolo pass short left to D.Samuel to IND 16 for no gain (B.Okereke). Caught at IND 20. 4-YAC

-------------------

2nd & 2 at SEA 49

(12:03 - 1st) (Shotgun) J.Garoppolo pass short left to D.Samuel to SEA 28 for 21 yards (D.Reed). PENALTY on SF-T.Sherfield, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 44. Caught at SF 49. 23-YAC

-------------------

(13:01 - 3rd) 10-J.Garoppolo at QB. (Shotgun) J.Garoppolo pass short left to D.Samuel to SF 47 for 19 yards (A.Amos, D.Campbell). Caught at SF 25. 22-YAC

-------------------
1st & 10 at GB 25

(10:12 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Garoppolo pass short middle to D.Samuel to GB 24 for 1 yard (D.Campbell). Caught at GB 30. 6-YAC

-------------------
 

 

This chart below is Deebo's week 4 target chart where he gets 88 YAC among his 156 total rec yards. On the surface, he is great at YAC. However, we can see majority of his YAC comes from two WR screens to the left and one long touchdown on the right sideline, which is a blown coverage and has nothing to do with his YAC ability.

 

 

 

Of course, this is from one game and we can easily find plays showing Deebo breaking tackles, having quick acceleration, or changing direction to have a good YAC gain. However, just keep in mind YAC has a lot to do with both Bills' and 49ers' offense design.

 

It doesn't take away Deebo's ability but once we take offense into account, the YAC differential isn't likely to be fixed by one player alone like Deebo.  Calling more WR screens to Mckenzie probably would have improved Bills' YAC quite a bit last season, but that might not be for the best of Bills offense.

 

Good post, and Mahomes led the league in passing yards on throws at or behind the LoS from plays like screens.  And ironically Josh Allen was third, albeit at about half what Mahomes did.  
 

Chiefs run a lot of plays designed and dependent on YAC too like the Niners.

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

No, I'm 100% correct.

 

The Chiefs have prioritized speed because of their style of offense and their "day 1" confidence in Mahomes making accurate throws.

 

The Bills play a different style and the offense was originally designed to prevent Allen from making mistakes.

 

Last year their lack of YAC talent burned them.

 

As I said at the time.........sacrificing speed for Emmanuel Sanders was a mistake.

 

They didn't use it a lot but John Brown had a few great WR screen plays in key moments.......game breakers versus the Ravens and Seahawks........it can be part of the Bills offense but it won't be Stef Diggs or Gabe Davis doing it..........that's not their game.

Sacrificing speed (John Brown) for Sanders was a mistake?  Sanders had a better year than Brown had the last 2 years.  Brown couldn’t even stick with a team this year.  
 

And how was this a mistake?  Did you miss the part where our offense averaged 41 points per game in the post season, substantially more than any team John Brown played on.  And Sanders isn’t exactly slow either.  So where did this hurt us?
 

Josh Allen threw 9 TDs in 2 playoff games where we averaged 41 points.   But listening to you you would think we averaged 17 a game and the pass game struggled and couldn’t get anything going. 

[BillsShredder83]

Really enjoyed the effort the three of you put in, well thought out and backed. This is why i love this site, yall had my flip flopping based on who posted last lol i still dunno whos right but great posts @syhuang @BADOLBILZ @Alphadawg7

[Alphadawg7]

18 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Really enjoyed the effort the three of you put in, well thought out and backed. This is why i love this site, yall had my flip flopping based on who posted last lol i still dunno whos right but great posts @syhuang @BADOLBILZ @Alphadawg7

My post was last so I am right 🤪

[BADOLBILZ]

56 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Sacrificing speed (John Brown) for Sanders was a mistake?  Sanders had a better year than Brown had the last 2 years.  Brown couldn’t even stick with a team this year.  
 

And how was this a mistake?  Did you miss the part where our offense averaged 41 points per game in the post season, substantially more than any team John Brown played on.  And Sanders isn’t exactly slow either.  So where did this hurt us?
 

Josh Allen threw 9 TDs in 2 playoff games where we averaged 41 points.   But listening to you you would think we averaged 17 a game and the pass game struggled and couldn’t get anything going. 

 

It's not about the players.   Nobody was lamenting them cutting John Brown specifically.......he was in decline........as was Sanders of course.......but the issue was replacing speed from 2019-2020 seasons.......with a lack of it. 

 

It was a mistake because they weren't as successful in the regular season.

 

They had a golden opportunity to gain home field advantage throughout the playoffs.........and totally f*cking blew it in a stretch of 3 losses in 5 games where they scored 15, 10 and 9 points.

 

So they ended up on the road in the divisional round.........after playing the game at home in 2020.........and subsequently didn't advance as far as they had in 2020.

 

Maybe you think they can run back the desperation mode offense that they went into after the Monday night debacle at home versus NE...........but running Josh Allen 10 times per game for 20 games to keep the defense on its heels is not a sustainable full season plan.

[syhuang]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'm sorry, but your argument makes no sense.    Watch his highlights.    They look nothing like you are describing.

 

 

 

You know highlights usually do not include WR screens that do not result in touchdowns or big gain. Didn't I already give you some examples from play-by-play regarding his YAC from WR screens?

 

On the other hand, this highlight actually includes the two touchdown plays in his week 4 target chart I posted earlier where one is a WR screen and one touchdown is a blown coverage having nothing to do with his YAC ability. Nevertheless, both plays contribute to his YAC stat.

 

It's interesting that you said this highlight video looks nothing like I described when in fact it includes the touchdown plays in the week 4 target chart I posted and described earlier today.

 

Here is another example of his WR screen (83 yards gain):

 

 

 

Again, Samuel is definitely shifty and hard to bring down, but the point is that offense scheme and design are big part of YAC, one player alone may not make a major difference.

 

 

Edited April 26, 2022 by syhuang

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, syhuang said:

 

You know highlights usually do not include WR screen not resulting in touchdowns or big gain. Didn't I already give you some examples from play-by-play regarding his YAC from WR screens?

 

Here is an example of his WR screen (83 yards gain):

 

 

 

 

Yeah heaven forbid the Bills had that option in the Jacksonville game last season.

 

The highlight package I linked above features one intermediate and deep pass after another converted into big YAC.

 

Your narrative is simply false.

 

Deebo had a 1998 Eric Moulds kinda' receiving season in 2021............but with hundreds of rushing yards added in as well.

[Doc Brown]

8 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I will reiterate:

 

Depth of average reception (aka ybr):

 

Diggs 8.7

Samuel 8.3

 

YAC per reception

 

Diggs 3.2

Samuel 10

 

So about the same depth but more than 3x the YAC.

 

Samuel is just difficult to bring down after at the catch.........Diggs is difficult to stop until the catch point........but not good enough to be above average at it in the Bills offense(league average YAC is 3.4).

 

Calling more screens to a guy like McKenzie........who is your 4th or 5th best receiver and only a threat to catch shorter passes........can help but isn't much of a solution.

 

There is no element of surprise......they can squat on his routes.........and he isn't a contact balance runner and he doesn't have elite speed.

 

The reason why the screens they threw to John Brown were so successful was because teams had to respect him getting over the top of the defense.

 

 

 

Just looking at Diggs YAC per reception each year of his career it seems like the system (and pry Josh Allen's playing style) does limit his YAC ability somewhat.  Nobody is arguing that Samuel isn't a better YAC guy but the large YAC discrepancy should be taken with a grain of salt with the systems both are in.

 

2021 - 3.16 (Daboll)

2020 - 3.65 (Daboll)

2019 - 4.79 (Stefanski)

2018 - 4.39 DeFlippio/Stefanski)

2017- 4.75 (Shurmur)

2016 - 3.79 (Turner/Shurmur)

2015 - 5.61 (Norv Turner)

Edited April 26, 2022 by Doc Brown

[TBBills]

He is a flash in the pan and nothing more. 

[BillsShredder83]

8 minutes ago, TBBills said:

He is a flash in the pan and nothing more. 

Based on??? I mean we're not talking Michael Thomas catches. 75 ish receptions for 1400 yds... what's fluky about that?

[syhuang]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah heaven forbid the Bills had that option in the Jacksonville game last season.

 

The highlight package I linked above features one intermediate and deep pass after another converted into big YAC.

 

Your narrative is simply false.

 

Deebo had a 1998 Eric Moulds kinda' receiving season in 2021............but with hundreds of rushing yards added in as well.

 

You mean 49ers often calling WR screen is false even though there are multiple examples listed from play-by-play, target chart, or even the highlight video you posted yourself? If after all of these you still refuse to acknowledge that, I guess nothing others can do.

 

Just to be clear, I'm not saying Samuel's YAC are all or mostly from WR screen. The reason I brought up 49ers' play calling is that Samuel's YAC benefits from 49ers' offense and offense scheme matters.

 

Anyway, no one is arguing Samuel is better at YAC, but the point is that offense scheme and design are big part of YAC, one player alone may not make a major difference.

 

Edited April 26, 2022 by syhuang

[BADOLBILZ]

8 minutes ago, syhuang said:

Anyway, no one is arguing Samuel is better at YAC, but the point is that offense scheme and design are big part of YAC, one player alone may not make a major difference.

 

 

Yes you were initially arguing that Samuel's YAC production was all schemed.

 

Obviously you've now seen the highlights and saw him turning tons of intermediate routes into big plays after the catch.

 

As I said...........the scheme hurts the Bills YAC..........but there is a chasm between being dead last and scheme limitations when you have a QB like Josh Allen.

 

The Bills chose to build their WR corps around guys who get open but don't produce much in traffic after they catch the ball.

 

They had their reasons.........but it's time to evolve with an improving QB and new OC.

 

And just like they had to evolve from Jordan Matthews/Kelvin Benjamin types they need to evolve to add more YAC talent............the lack of diversity of skill in the WR corps cost them dearly last regular season.........which subsequently put them on the road in the playoffs instead of comfortably at home as they should have been.

[syhuang]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yes you were initially arguing that Samuel's YAC production was all schemed.

 

Obviously you've now seen the highlights and saw him turning tons of intermediate routes into big plays after the catch.

 

As I said...........the scheme hurts the Bills YAC..........but there is a chasm between being dead last and scheme limitations when you have a QB like Josh Allen.

 

The Bills chose to build their WR corps around guys who get open but don't produce much in traffic after they catch the ball.

 

They had their reasons.........but it's time to evolve with an improving QB and new OC.

 

And just like they had to evolve from Jordan Matthews/Kelvin Benjamin types they need to evolve to add more YAC talent............the lack of diversity of skill in the WR corps cost them dearly last regular season.........which subsequently put them on the road in the playoffs instead of comfortably at home as they should have been.

 

I never said Samuel's YAC production was all schemed, don't make up lies just to cover yourself. The very first post I made in this thread is here and all ensuing posts never have something like "Samuel's YAC production was all schemed". You probably remember someone else, if so, I'm waiting for your apology.

I guess you have made up your mind and won't even acknowledge other data people show you including play-by-play, target chart, and videos. You already form your opinion by few stats and a highlight video. The funny thing is that, even in this highlight video you posted and emphasized, only 50% of the plays are non-screen passes while 20% are screen passes and other 30% are his rush plays and one trick play, a pass TD from him (not receiption).

 

It's okay to admit his YAC stat benefits from 49ers' offense calling. Admitting that doesn't take away anything from him as a player, his season, and his YAC ability. Majority of the people agree that his is a great player and good at YAC, what others trying to tell you is that the large YAC discrepancy you posted should take the systems these players are in into account.

 

Again, no one is arguing Samuel is better at YAC, but the point I and others try to tell you is that offense scheme and design are big part of YAC, one player alone may not make a major difference. 

 

BTW, I have said the sentence you quoted several times. Even I edited some of the posts, the time stamp clearly showed it's edited soon afterward, not today like you accused.

 

[Marvlevydraftdaygenius]

I do believe the bills have been looking for a home run threat from the slot for years now and if they had one there offense would be complete.

[machine gun kelly]

Samuel doesn’t really have much negotiating power so he’ll eventually have to either sit out which he’ll be fined daily, and will have to get back to work by week 10.

 

Lynch has been on record he’s not entertaining trade offers why would you blame him.  The 49ers have been deep in the playoffs for two of the last three years.  What motivation would they have with one of their best weapons.  This is much adou about nothing.

[John from Riverside]

Haven’t read through all the posts but has somebody suggested that Deebo Samuel is not a stud that kid is a beast

[colin]

i think there is some truth to the criticism that josh doesn't always get the ball out "on time", but to me that's as much of a scheme/system issue as it is on individual players.  watching sf you really see how the ball just pops out on a beat, but if a single solitary thing went wrong in the process up to that point the play looks like a soup sandwich: just spilling all over the joint.

 

im hoping w kromer back and some more emphasis on the protections and run game that instead of just having josh go be super man all the time, we kinda run the O with more easy plays.

[What a Tuel]

Apparently Odell Beckham tweeted Deebo is going to the patriots. 🤢

Edit a lot of people are saying he's trolling but he said he had the "tea" yesterday and Deebo told him to simmer down and now this. Maybe he is just bored.

 

 

 

Edited May 1, 2022 by What a Tuel