All Gunner's Draft Stuff.... 2022 Edition!!!

[GunnerBill]

Right, so just a few days away from the 2022 NFL Draft. Here is my annual compendium of my draft content. Hopefully people find the content interesting in the run up to the draft, and a few people have been kind enough to message me in the last couple of weeks asking for some of the things that this post sets out, but also it stands for the record too. Anyone in the draft evaluations game is going to have misses as well as hits. I never try and hide from the ones I get wrong. They are always out in the open for people to refer to. I liken it to Bill Parcells’ view of Phil Simms and interceptions….. if you ain’t throwing them, you ain’t trying hard enough. If you are not missing on the odd draft evaluation you are probably a fence sitter and therefore not adding much value anyway.

 

So without further ado…..

 

Products that are already published on the board are:

 

My 2022 Quarterback evaluations

My 2022 draft 'sleepers'

Gunner's 2022 Mock Draft (the final version 3.0, against which I will ultimately mark myself, NOW PUBLISHED)

 

The "new content" in this thread will be:

A full list of my 18 first round grades;

An analysis of my top 100;

My positional top 5s.

 

[Key:

* denotes medical concern

^ denotes potential off-field / behavioural concern]

 

First Round Grades:

1. Aiden Hutchinson, DE Michigan

2. Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

3. Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon

4. Andrew Booth*, CB, Clemson

5. Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

6. Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

7. Derek Stingley, CB, LSU

8. Ikem Ekwonu, OG, North Carolina Stat

9. Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

10. Jameson Williams*, WR, Alabama

11. Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

12. Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

13. Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

14. Jermaine Johnson, DE, Florida State

15. Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

16. Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

17. Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia

18. Daxton Hill, S, Michigan

 

I then also have four borderline 1st/2nd grades: 19. David Ojabo*, DE, Michigan; 20. Drake London, WR, USC; 21. Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa; 22. Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington.

 

 

Analysis of Top 100:

Here is the positional breakdown of my top 100:-

 

Quarterback: 5

Running Back: 4

Tight End: 5

Wide Receiver: 17

Offensive Tackle: 8

Interior Offensive Line: 11

Total offensive players: 50

 

Interior Defensive Line: 7

Edge Rusher: 12

Linebacker: 9

Corner: 13

Safety: 9

Total defensive players: 50

 

Strengths and Weaknesses of the top 100:

I think again it is a pretty balanced top 100 in terms of offense vs defense. I have it at exactly 50:50 after two years of 51:49 either way. I will say this about this class, my 100th player has a higher grade than in many other years. Quite often my 100th graded player is in the early to even mid 4th round grade wise – last year being a prime example. The 100th player on my board this year comes in the 3rd round and I have other 3rd round graded guys still on the board after him.

 

The deep positions are wide receiver (which seems to be deep almost every year now, something to which Brandon Beane alluded on Wednesday in his presser – he attributed it to the rise of the 7 on 7s and passing camps and kids playing in passing offenses more at an earlier age) and defensive back – which may well be the opposite side of the same coin. The sweet spot for receivers is really round 2. I have 12 receivers ranked in my top 60 players. I expect you could even see more than 12 go between round 1 and round 2 as some of the more scheme specific guys that I have graded in round 3 like Calvin Austin and Wan’Dale Robinson come off the board early.

 

As for defensive backs I think it is a really good safety group, and while 9 safeties in my top 100 is not that unusual, 8 or 9 is about par for the course, to have 5 with grades in the first 2 rounds is less usual. And the safety depth continues past the top 100 too. It is a slightly odd corner class in that I think there are 7 day one or early day two guys who could come in and be really good players early. They are all ranked in my top 34 players. I then have only one more corner between #35 and #70 on my board but then 6 between 70 and 100. I have described it as a bit of a late second round wilderness for the corner class but then there is a lot of 3rd and 4th round guys who I think are intriguing developmental prospects. Those guys might be able to play some as rookies and help you but they are going to need some work too. I think rounds 3 and 4 are the sweet spot for the corner depth.

 

Which position groups are weak? I again don’t think it is a stellar year for running backs. The flip side of what Beane said about receiver might be that the best athletes in school rarely play running back these days. Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall are both potential lead backs in the NFL but the rest of the class feel like specific role playing backs suited to running back by committee time shares. I also don’t love the tackle depth. The top 3 or 4 guys (depending on where you put Ekwonu and I have him graded as a guard but with tackle flex) are all good prospects but then I only have two second round grades, and three third ground grades. Some of that is I have a few guys who others might see as tackles in that 3rd round region graded as guards, but I just don’t think it is a deep group. A team would be very lucky to get a Spencer Brown type prospect at tackle in round 3 this time around. He was OT10 for me last year and would be OT7 this year.

 

Positional Top 5s:

(round I have them graded in parenthesis) 

 

Quarterback

1. Malik Willis, Liberty (2nd)

2. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh (2nd)

3. Matt Corral, Ole Miss (2nd)

4. Carson Strong*, Nevada (2nd/3rd)

5. Sam Howell, North Carolina (3rd)

 

Running Back

1. Kenneth Walker, Michigan State (2nd)

2. Breece Hall, Iowa State (2nd)

3. James Cook, Georgia (3rd)

4. Kyren Williams, Notre Dame (3rd)

5. Dameon Pierce, Florida (3rd)

 

Wide Receiver

1. Chris Olave, Ohio State (1st)

2. Jameson Williams*, Alabama (1st)

3. Treylon Burks, Arkansas (1st)

4. Garrett Wilson, Ohio State (1st)

5. Drake London, USC (1st/2nd)

 

Tight End

1. Trey McBride, Colorado (2nd)

2. Greg Dulcich, UCLA (3rd)

3. Jelani Woods, Virginia (3rd)

4. Cade Otton, Washington (3rd)

5. Charlie Kolar, Iowa State (3rd)

 

Offensive Tackle

1. Charles Cross, Mississippi State (1st)

2. Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa (1st)

3. Evan Neal, Alabama (1st)

4. Bernhard Raimann, Central Michigan (2nd)

5. Nicholas Petit-Frere, Ohio State (2nd)

 

Interior Offensive Line

1. Ikem Ekwonu, North Carolina State (1st)

2. Tyler Linderbaum, Iowa (1st/2nd)

3. Kenyon Green, Texas A&M (2nd)

4. Zion Johnson, Boston College (2nd)

5. Tyler Smith, Tulsa (2nd)

 

Interior Defensive Line

1. Devonte Wyatt^, Georgia (2nd)

2. Jordan Davis, Georgia (2nd)

3. DeMarvin Leal, Texas A&M (2nd)

4. Perrion Winfrey, Oklahoma (2nd)

5. Travis Jones, UConn (2nd)

 

EDGE

1. Aiden Hutchinson, Michigan (1st)

2. Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon (1st)

3. Jermaine Johnson, Florida State (1st)

4. David Ojabo, Michigan (1st/2nd)

5. Cam Thomas, San Diego State (2nd)

 

Linebacker

1. Devin Lloyd, Utah (1st)

2. Nakobe Dean, Georgia (1st)

3. Chad Muma, Wyoming (2nd)

4. Christian Harris, Alabama (2nd)

5. Troy Anderson, Montana State (2nd)

 

Corner

1. Andrew Booth*, Clemson (1st)

2. Ahmad 'Sauce' Gardner, Cincinnati (1st)

3. Derek Stingley, LSU (1st)

4. Kyler Gordon, Washington (1st/2nd)

5. Trent McDuffie, Washington (2nd)

 

Safety

1. Kyle Hamilton, Norte Dame (1st)

2. Daxton Hill^, Michigan (1st)

3. Lewis Cine, Georgia (2nd)

4. Jalen Pitre, Baylor (2nd)

5. Jaquan Brisker, Penn State (2nd)

 

 

Final thoughts

It is often said that the best General Managers separate themselves as drafters in rounds 2-5 and that is going to be even more the case this year. I do think there is good depth on day 2 and into the first half of day 3. This will be the type of draft class that has pro bowlers and all pros drafted in rounds 4 and 5. There are not as many "elite" prospects up at the top end of the draft as normal and a lot has already been said and written about the Quarterback class. But a team that drafts well and follows their board and does not reach on positions in those middle rounds, but allows themselves to stick to best player available is going to look back on this as a critical draft for their franchise. I don't think you will see a ton of big trade ups on Thursday night, maybe one if Malik Willis gets to #4 or #5 and a team like Pittsburgh decides to jump up, but otherwise I expect trades to be more teams moving just a couple of picks each way. But you could see a lot of trade action on Friday night as teams try to marry the value of the board to their needs. As for the Bills.... I expect corner and wide receiver to be addressed somewhere in the first two days. I think safety, tight end and offensive line depth will all be addressed somewhere too. Let's hope Beane and co. can find some stars. 

 

As ever, I will be doing my daily de-briefs each morning after the action, looking at whose drafts I liked and didn't like, the best players I have left on my board and analysing the moves the Bills, in particular, have made. By this time next week the first round will already be in the books..... not long to wait!!

 

 

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by GunnerBill

[Alphadawg7]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

EDGE

1. Aiden Hutchinson, Michigan (1st)

2. Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon (1st)

3. Jermaine Johnson, Florida State (1st)

4. David Ojabo, Michigan (1st/2nd)

5. Cam Thomas, San Diego State (2nd)

 

 

First Kudos on all the work bud, good stuff to read

 

Curious why you don't separate Linebacker into MLB and OLB, which I think most ranking sites do and I think is important when looking at the LB rankings.  And also, curious as to why you listed Ojabo as an "edge" vs a LB.  I feel like I always see him classified as an OLB on ranking sites, and I think he plays as a OLB vs a dedicated edge rusher in the NFL too.  

Edited April 22, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[JaCrispy]

Well done Gunner...and thank you...🍻

[GunnerBill]

31 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

First Kudos on all the work bud, good stuff to read

 

Curious why you don't separate Linebacker into MLB and OLB, which I think most ranking sites do and I think is important when looking at the LB rankings.  And also, curious as to why you listed Ojabo as an "edge" vs a LB.  I feel like I always see him classified as an OLB on ranking sites, and I think he plays as a OLB vs a dedicated edge rusher in the NFL too.  

 

I categorise that way because to me the responsibilities of a 3-4 OLB are much more akin to those of a 4-3 DE than they are to that of an off the ball linebacker. I think Ojabo probably is a better fit in the immediate term as an outside backer in a 3-4 but I think he can play as a 4-3 end in time too. Ultimately it comes down to this for me "is his main responsibility in the NFL going to be to rush the passer from the outside?" if yes I classify them as edge. 

[Coach Tuesday]

Good stuff as always.  Love your contributions to this site.

 

You have Booth as your top CB?  Interesting.

[4merper4mer]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I categorise that way because to me the responsibilities of a 3-4 OLB are much more akin to those of a 4-3 DE than they are to that of an off the ball linebacker. I think Ojabo probably is a better fit in the immediate term as an outside backer in a 3-4 but I think he can play as a 4-3 end in time too. Ultimately it comes down to this for me "is his main responsibility in the NFL going to be to rush the passer from the outside?" if yes I classify them as edge. 

This was great.  Thank you.  The thing that jumps off the page is Booth’s ranking given It seems he is not mocked nearly as high as you have him ranked.  Does he make it to 25?

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, 4merper4mer said:

This was great.  Thank you.  The thing that jumps off the page is Booth’s ranking given It seems he is not mocked nearly as high as you have him ranked.  Does he make it to 25?

 

Depends what teams really think about the injury. If his health was totally clear, no chance he makes it to #25. 

[wppete]

Great stuff here. Thanks for this. A lot of work gone it to this. 🏆 

 

I think I agree with the majority of this.  I can’t wait until next week!!!

[No_Matter_What]

Good read as always.

 

One technical - you have mark ^ for off-field issues but nobody is actually denoted that way  I guess Wyatt deserves one?

 

I'd love to see your top 20-22 players adjusted for Bills needs.

[wppete]

That Safety class 1-5 looks very tempting. I think all 5 are going to be stars. Hope we end up with one of them. 

[Virgil]

If I can make one recommendation for us dumb dumbs.

 

Maybe separate the MLB from the OLB, with the OLB's being actual linebackers and not EDGE guys. 

 

With our loss of Klein, I think OLB could very well be on the table for us at some point, any many are clamoring for the Edmunds replacement.  Those players are pretty different at LB

[ExWNYer]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Final thoughts

As for the Bills.... I expect corner and wide receiver to be addressed somewhere in the first two days. I think safety, tight end and offensive line depth will all be addressed somewhere too. Let's hope Beane and co. can find some stars. 

 

Thanks for the thorough analysis and the time you take to do it and share each year. I agree with your first sentence wholeheartedly and have thought WR or CB/CB or WR for quite a while; however, as we get closer, I keep feeling more and more that Daxton Hill may be the choice. No intel or 'inside info', just a hunch/'Spidey sense' tingling. Technically, he could be considered a CB choice as he has the versatility to play CB and slide to S later if/when Poyer is gone. Regardless of what happens, we'll know in less than a week. 'Draftnik' Christmas is coming.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[mannc]

Hmmm. No Travon Walker, the guy rumored to be in the running for 1st overall?👀

[Dave_Bills]

This is outstanding. That you so much for your time/effort/analysis

[GunnerBill]

26 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Good read as always.

 

One technical - you have mark ^ for off-field issues but nobody is actually denoted that way  I guess Wyatt deserves one?

 

I'd love to see your top 20-22 players adjusted for Bills needs.

 

Yes. Wyatt should have one. Will amend. 

[Paul Costa]

Great job as usual Gunner Bill. You do a fantastic job with the draft. 

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, mannc said:

Hmmm. No Travon Walker, the guy rumored to be in the running for 1st overall?👀

 

Yep. He is my EDGE6. I think he is a bit of a workout warrior. I have been back to the tape 3 times. I don't see it. Good player, in my top 32 but I can't see how he wins as an edge in the NFL. He doesn't have great bend, he doesn't use his hands well, he doesn't really have any pass rush moves. He is strong and fast in a straight line. I actually like him better as a full time convert to a 3 tech interior rusher. My view on his tape is the same as it was before he blew up the combine. I think he IS in the running for 1st overall. But I don't for a minute believe he should be.

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Right, so just a few days away from the 2022 NFL Draft. Here is my annual compendium of my draft content. Hopefully people find the content interesting in the run up to the draft, and a few people have been kind enough to message me in the last couple of weeks asking for some of the things that this post sets out, but also it stands for the record too. Anyone in the draft evaluations game is going to have misses as well as hits. I never try and hide from the ones I get wrong. They are always out in the open for people to refer to. I liken it to Bill Parcells’ view of Phil Simms and interceptions….. if you ain’t throwing them, you ain’t trying hard enough. If you are not missing on the odd draft evaluation you are probably a fence sitter and therefore not adding much value anyway.

 

So without further ado…..

 

Products that are already published on the board are:

 

My 2022 Quarterback evaluations

My 2022 draft 'sleepers'

Gunner's 2022 Mock Draft (the final version 3.0 against which I will ultimately mark myself, will be published at that link on the day of the draft)

 

The "new content" in this thread will be:

A full list of my 18 first round grades;

An analysis of my top 100;

My positional top 5s.

 

[Key:

* denotes medical concern

^ denotes potential off-field / behavioural concern]

 

First Round Grades:

1. Aiden Hutchinson, DE Michigan

2. Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

3. Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon

4. Andrew Booth*, CB, Clemson

5. Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

6. Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

7. Derek Stingley, CB, LSU

8. Ikem Ekwonu, OG, North Carolina Stat

9. Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

10. Jameson Williams*, WR, Alabama

11. Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

12. Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

13. Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

14. Jermaine Johnson, DE, Florida State

15. Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

16. Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

17. Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia

18. Daxton Hill, S, Michigan

 

I then also have four borderline 1st/2nd grades: 19. David Ojabo*, DE, Michigan; 20. Drake London, WR, USC; 21. Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa; 22. Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington.

 

 

Analysis of Top 100:

Here is the positional breakdown of my top 100:-

 

Quarterback: 5

Running Back: 4

Tight End: 5

Wide Receiver: 17

Offensive Tackle: 8

Interior Offensive Line: 10

Total offensive players: 49

 

Interior Defensive Line: 7

Edge Rusher: 12

Linebacker: 9

Corner: 14

Safety: 9

Total defensive players: 51

 

Strengths and Weaknesses of the top 100:

I think again it is a pretty balanced top 100 in terms of offense vs defense. It is a 51:49 for a third year in a row, this time in favour of the defensive side of the ball. I will say this about this class, my 100th player has a higher grade than in many other years. Quite often my 100th graded player is in the early to even mid 4th round grade wise – last year being a prime example. The 100th player on my board this year comes in the 3rd round and I have other 3rd round graded guys still on the board after him.

 

The deep positions are wide receiver (which seems to be deep almost every year now, something to which Brandon Beane alluded on Wednesday in his presser – he attributed it to the rise of the 7 on 7s and passing camps and kids playing in passing offenses more at an earlier age) and defensive back – which may well be the opposite side of the same coin. The sweet spot for receivers is really round 2. I have 12 receivers ranked in my top 60 players. I expect you could even see more than 12 go between round 1 and round 2 as some of the more scheme specific guys that I have graded in round 3 like Calvin Austin and Wan’Dale Robinson come off the board early.

 

As for defensive backs I think it is a really good safety group, and while 9 safeties in my top 100 is not that unusual, 8 or 9 is about par for the course, to have 5 with grades in the first 2 rounds is less usual. And the safety depth continues past the top 100 too. It is a slightly odd corner class in that I think there are 7 day one or early day two guys who could come in and be really good players early. They are all ranked in my top 34 players. I then have only one more corner between #35 and #70 on my board but then 6 between 70 and 100. I have described it as a bit of a late second round wilderness for the corner class but then there is a lot of 3rd and 4th round guys who I think are intriguing developmental prospects. Those guys might be able to play some as rookies and help you but they are going to need some work too. I think rounds 3 and 4 are the sweet spot for the corner depth.

 

Which position groups are weak? I again don’t think it is a stellar year for running backs. The flip side of what Beane said about receiver might be that the best athletes in school rarely play running back these days. Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall are both potential lead backs in the NFL but the rest of the class feel like specific role playing backs suited to running back by committee time shares. I also don’t love the tackle depth. The top 3 or 4 guys (depending on where you put Ekwonu and I have him graded as a guard but with tackle flex) are all good prospects but then I only have two second round grades, and three third ground grades. Some of that is I have a few guys who others might see as tackles in that 3rd round region graded as guards, but I just don’t think it is a deep group. A team would be very lucky to get a Spencer Brown type prospect at tackle in round 3 this time around. He was OT10 for me last year and would be OT7 this year.

 

Positional Top 5s:

(round I have them graded in parenthesis) 

 

Quarterback

1. Malik Willis, Liberty (2nd)

2. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh (2nd)

3. Matt Corral, Ole Miss (2nd)

4. Carson Strong*, Nevada (2nd/3rd)

5. Sam Howell, North Carolina (3rd)

 

Running Back

1. Kenneth Walker, Michigan State (2nd)

2. Breece Hall, Iowa State (2nd)

3. James Cook, Georgia (3rd)

4. Kyren Williams, Notre Dame (3rd)

5. Dameon Pierce, Florida (3rd)

 

Wide Receiver

1. Chris Olave, Ohio State (1st)

2. Jameson Williams*, Alabama (1st)

3. Treylon Burks, Arkansas (1st)

4. Garrett Wilson, Ohio State (1st)

5. Drake London, USC (1st/2nd)

 

Tight End

1. Trey McBride, Colorado (2nd)

2. Greg Dulcich, UCLA (3rd)

3. Jelani Woods, Virginia (3rd)

4. Cade Otton, Washington (3rd)

5. Charlie Kolar, Iowa State (3rd)

 

Offensive Tackle

1. Charles Cross, Mississippi State (1st)

2. Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa (1st)

3. Evan Neal, Alabama (1st)

4. Bernhard Raimann, Central Michigan (2nd)

5. Nicholas Petit-Frere, Ohio State (2nd)

 

Interior Offensive Line

1. Ikem Ekwonu, North Carolina State (1st)

2. Tyler Linderbaum, Iowa (1st/2nd)

3. Kenyon Green, Texas A&M (2nd)

4. Zion Johnson, Boston College (2nd)

5. Tyler Smith, Tulsa (2nd)

 

Interior Defensive Line

1. Devonte Wyatt, Georgia (2nd)

2. Jordan Davis, Georgia (2nd)

3. DeMarvin Leal, Texas A&M (2nd)

4. Perrion Winfrey, Oklahoma (2nd)

5. Travis Jones, UConn (2nd)

 

EDGE

1. Aiden Hutchinson, Michigan (1st)

2. Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon (1st)

3. Jermaine Johnson, Florida State (1st)

4. David Ojabo, Michigan (1st/2nd)

5. Cam Thomas, San Diego State (2nd)

 

Linebacker

1. Devin Lloyd, Utah (1st)

2. Nakobe Dean, Georgia (1st)

3. Chad Muma, Wyoming (2nd)

4. Christian Harris, Alabama (2nd)

5. Troy Anderson, Montana State (2nd)

 

Corner

1. Andrew Booth*, Clemson (1st)

2. Ahmad 'Sauce' Gardner, Cincinnati (1st)

3. Derek Stingley, LSU (1st)

4. Kyler Gordon, Washington (1st/2nd)

5. Trent McDuffie, Washington (2nd)

 

Safety

1. Kyle Hamilton, Norte Dame (1st)

2. Daxton Hill, Michigan (1st)

3. Lewis Cine, Georgia (2nd)

4. Jalen Pitre, Baylor (2nd)

5. Jaquan Brisker, Penn State (2nd)

 

 

Final thoughts

It is often said that the best General Managers separate themselves as drafters in rounds 2-5 and that is going to be even more the case this year. I do think there is good depth on day 2 and into the first half of day 3. This will be the type of draft class that has pro bowlers and all pros drafted in rounds 4 and 5. There are not as many "elite" prospects up at the top end of the draft as normal and a lot has already been said and written about the Quarterback class. But a team that drafts well and follows their board and does not reach on positions in those middle rounds, but allows themselves to stick to best player available is going to look back on this as a critical draft for their franchise. I don't think you will see a ton of big trade ups on Thursday night, maybe one if Malik Willis gets to #4 or #5 and a team like Pittsburgh decides to jump up, but otherwise I expect trades to be more teams moving just a couple of picks each way. But you could see a lot of trade action on Friday night as teams try to marry the value of the board to their needs. As for the Bills.... I expect corner and wide receiver to be addressed somewhere in the first two days. I think safety, tight end and offensive line depth will all be addressed somewhere too. Let's hope Beane and co. can find some stars. 

 

As ever, I will be doing my daily de-briefs each morning after the action, looking at whose drafts I liked and didn't like, the best players I have left on my board and analysing the moves the Bills, in particular, have made. By this time next week the first round will already be in the books..... not long to wait!!

 

 

 

 

This is pretty good, but I think you could have put some more time and thought into it before posting.  Maybe next year.

[eball]

Fantastic stuff @GunnerBill — this beats the crap out of “mock drafts.”

 

Thank you sir. 

[Sierra Foothills]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Right, so just a few days away from the 2022 NFL Draft. Here is my annual compendium of my draft content. Hopefully people find the content interesting in the run up to the draft, and a few people have been kind enough to message me in the last couple of weeks asking for some of the things that this post sets out, but also it stands for the record too. Anyone in the draft evaluations game is going to have misses as well as hits. I never try and hide from the ones I get wrong. They are always out in the open for people to refer to. I liken it to Bill Parcells’ view of Phil Simms and interceptions….. if you ain’t throwing them, you ain’t trying hard enough. If you are not missing on the odd draft evaluation you are probably a fence sitter and therefore not adding much value anyway.

 

So without further ado…..

 

Products that are already published on the board are:

 

My 2022 Quarterback evaluations

My 2022 draft 'sleepers'

Gunner's 2022 Mock Draft (the final version 3.0 against which I will ultimately mark myself, will be published at that link on the day of the draft)

 

The "new content" in this thread will be:

A full list of my 18 first round grades;

An analysis of my top 100;

My positional top 5s.

 

[Key:

* denotes medical concern

^ denotes potential off-field / behavioural concern]

 

First Round Grades:

1. Aiden Hutchinson, DE Michigan

2. Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

3. Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon

4. Andrew Booth*, CB, Clemson

5. Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

6. Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

7. Derek Stingley, CB, LSU

8. Ikem Ekwonu, OG, North Carolina Stat

9. Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

10. Jameson Williams*, WR, Alabama

11. Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

12. Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

13. Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

14. Jermaine Johnson, DE, Florida State

15. Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

16. Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

17. Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia

18. Daxton Hill, S, Michigan

 

I then also have four borderline 1st/2nd grades: 19. David Ojabo*, DE, Michigan; 20. Drake London, WR, USC; 21. Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa; 22. Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington.

 

 

Analysis of Top 100:

Here is the positional breakdown of my top 100:-

 

Quarterback: 5

Running Back: 4

Tight End: 5

Wide Receiver: 17

Offensive Tackle: 8

Interior Offensive Line: 10

Total offensive players: 49

 

Interior Defensive Line: 7

Edge Rusher: 12

Linebacker: 9

Corner: 14

Safety: 9

Total defensive players: 51

 

Strengths and Weaknesses of the top 100:

I think again it is a pretty balanced top 100 in terms of offense vs defense. It is a 51:49 for a third year in a row, this time in favour of the defensive side of the ball. I will say this about this class, my 100th player has a higher grade than in many other years. Quite often my 100th graded player is in the early to even mid 4th round grade wise – last year being a prime example. The 100th player on my board this year comes in the 3rd round and I have other 3rd round graded guys still on the board after him.

 

The deep positions are wide receiver (which seems to be deep almost every year now, something to which Brandon Beane alluded on Wednesday in his presser – he attributed it to the rise of the 7 on 7s and passing camps and kids playing in passing offenses more at an earlier age) and defensive back – which may well be the opposite side of the same coin. The sweet spot for receivers is really round 2. I have 12 receivers ranked in my top 60 players. I expect you could even see more than 12 go between round 1 and round 2 as some of the more scheme specific guys that I have graded in round 3 like Calvin Austin and Wan’Dale Robinson come off the board early.

 

As for defensive backs I think it is a really good safety group, and while 9 safeties in my top 100 is not that unusual, 8 or 9 is about par for the course, to have 5 with grades in the first 2 rounds is less usual. And the safety depth continues past the top 100 too. It is a slightly odd corner class in that I think there are 7 day one or early day two guys who could come in and be really good players early. They are all ranked in my top 34 players. I then have only one more corner between #35 and #70 on my board but then 6 between 70 and 100. I have described it as a bit of a late second round wilderness for the corner class but then there is a lot of 3rd and 4th round guys who I think are intriguing developmental prospects. Those guys might be able to play some as rookies and help you but they are going to need some work too. I think rounds 3 and 4 are the sweet spot for the corner depth.

 

Which position groups are weak? I again don’t think it is a stellar year for running backs. The flip side of what Beane said about receiver might be that the best athletes in school rarely play running back these days. Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall are both potential lead backs in the NFL but the rest of the class feel like specific role playing backs suited to running back by committee time shares. I also don’t love the tackle depth. The top 3 or 4 guys (depending on where you put Ekwonu and I have him graded as a guard but with tackle flex) are all good prospects but then I only have two second round grades, and three third ground grades. Some of that is I have a few guys who others might see as tackles in that 3rd round region graded as guards, but I just don’t think it is a deep group. A team would be very lucky to get a Spencer Brown type prospect at tackle in round 3 this time around. He was OT10 for me last year and would be OT7 this year.

 

Positional Top 5s:

(round I have them graded in parenthesis) 

 

Quarterback

1. Malik Willis, Liberty (2nd)

2. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh (2nd)

3. Matt Corral, Ole Miss (2nd)

4. Carson Strong*, Nevada (2nd/3rd)

5. Sam Howell, North Carolina (3rd)

 

Running Back

1. Kenneth Walker, Michigan State (2nd)

2. Breece Hall, Iowa State (2nd)

3. James Cook, Georgia (3rd)

4. Kyren Williams, Notre Dame (3rd)

5. Dameon Pierce, Florida (3rd)

 

Wide Receiver

1. Chris Olave, Ohio State (1st)

2. Jameson Williams*, Alabama (1st)

3. Treylon Burks, Arkansas (1st)

4. Garrett Wilson, Ohio State (1st)

5. Drake London, USC (1st/2nd)

 

Tight End

1. Trey McBride, Colorado (2nd)

2. Greg Dulcich, UCLA (3rd)

3. Jelani Woods, Virginia (3rd)

4. Cade Otton, Washington (3rd)

5. Charlie Kolar, Iowa State (3rd)

 

Offensive Tackle

1. Charles Cross, Mississippi State (1st)

2. Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa (1st)

3. Evan Neal, Alabama (1st)

4. Bernhard Raimann, Central Michigan (2nd)

5. Nicholas Petit-Frere, Ohio State (2nd)

 

Interior Offensive Line

1. Ikem Ekwonu, North Carolina State (1st)

2. Tyler Linderbaum, Iowa (1st/2nd)

3. Kenyon Green, Texas A&M (2nd)

4. Zion Johnson, Boston College (2nd)

5. Tyler Smith, Tulsa (2nd)

 

Interior Defensive Line

1. Devonte Wyatt, Georgia (2nd)

2. Jordan Davis, Georgia (2nd)

3. DeMarvin Leal, Texas A&M (2nd)

4. Perrion Winfrey, Oklahoma (2nd)

5. Travis Jones, UConn (2nd)

 

EDGE

1. Aiden Hutchinson, Michigan (1st)

2. Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon (1st)

3. Jermaine Johnson, Florida State (1st)

4. David Ojabo, Michigan (1st/2nd)

5. Cam Thomas, San Diego State (2nd)

 

Linebacker

1. Devin Lloyd, Utah (1st)

2. Nakobe Dean, Georgia (1st)

3. Chad Muma, Wyoming (2nd)

4. Christian Harris, Alabama (2nd)

5. Troy Anderson, Montana State (2nd)

 

Corner

1. Andrew Booth*, Clemson (1st)

2. Ahmad 'Sauce' Gardner, Cincinnati (1st)

3. Derek Stingley, LSU (1st)

4. Kyler Gordon, Washington (1st/2nd)

5. Trent McDuffie, Washington (2nd)

 

Safety

1. Kyle Hamilton, Norte Dame (1st)

2. Daxton Hill, Michigan (1st)

3. Lewis Cine, Georgia (2nd)

4. Jalen Pitre, Baylor (2nd)

5. Jaquan Brisker, Penn State (2nd)

 

 

Final thoughts

It is often said that the best General Managers separate themselves as drafters in rounds 2-5 and that is going to be even more the case this year. I do think there is good depth on day 2 and into the first half of day 3. This will be the type of draft class that has pro bowlers and all pros drafted in rounds 4 and 5. There are not as many "elite" prospects up at the top end of the draft as normal and a lot has already been said and written about the Quarterback class. But a team that drafts well and follows their board and does not reach on positions in those middle rounds, but allows themselves to stick to best player available is going to look back on this as a critical draft for their franchise. I don't think you will see a ton of big trade ups on Thursday night, maybe one if Malik Willis gets to #4 or #5 and a team like Pittsburgh decides to jump up, but otherwise I expect trades to be more teams moving just a couple of picks each way. But you could see a lot of trade action on Friday night as teams try to marry the value of the board to their needs. As for the Bills.... I expect corner and wide receiver to be addressed somewhere in the first two days. I think safety, tight end and offensive line depth will all be addressed somewhere too. Let's hope Beane and co. can find some stars. 

 

As ever, I will be doing my daily de-briefs each morning after the action, looking at whose drafts I liked and didn't like, the best players I have left on my board and analysing the moves the Bills, in particular, have made. By this time next week the first round will already be in the books..... not long to wait!!

 

 

 

 

First and foremost, thank you very much for this. It's very impressive and I have to say I agree with most of your work. I'll comment more as I digest it.

 

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

If I can make one recommendation for us dumb dumbs.

 

Maybe separate the MLB from the OLB, with the OLB's being actual linebackers and not EDGE guys. 

 

With our loss of Klein, I think OLB could very well be on the table for us at some point, any many are clamoring for the Edmunds replacement.  Those players are pretty different at LB

 

Good point. Defining linebacker positions in this day and age is pretty confounding

 

For instance one emerging distinction is off-ball versus on-ball linebacker.

 

Then as we all know the Bills play a 4-2-5 as their base defense so it's not as simple as using sam, mike, will, or other conventional tags.