TSW Mock Draft 2.0 Poll - Who should the Bills take at 25?

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I remain skeptical. It isn't an Edmunds point so much as it is a linebacker point. I'd baulk at 1st round trade value for Darius Leonard. I know Seattle traded two 1s for a safety but that has been a disaster to the extent that I don't expect you see anyone do that again any time soon. 

Agree that trade was a disaster, and agree two firsts like that won’t likely happen again soon.  But we are talking a single first or second here for a highly productive and decorated 24 year old LB who can drop back into coverage.  
 

I think Beane could get that value if he wanted.  But like you and I agreed earlier, I don’t think Beane is out calling people shopping him this season either. I’m sure he listens if someone calls him though.  

[NewEra]

19 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I think he gets at least a second straight up personally and still could get a first potentially.  He is on his rookie deal, we don’t have to sweeten the pot for someone to take him so we can get a second IMHO.  
 

Across the league he is considered one of the best young LBs in the NFL by many of his peers.  Again, 5th in tackles since entering the league and that includes playing a huge part of a season hurt in 2020.  
 

And honestly, zero percent chance we trade him for anything less. He’s worth more to us this year than that, and Beane IMHO will rather have him for our SB push and risk losing him for nothing rather than trade him for less than a 2nd rounder.

Marshawn Lynch was NOT the same player in Buffalo that he became in Seattle.  He also was one ill-timed fart from a league suspension with his off field issues that included a hit and run on an old lady.  It was almost a miracle we got that much for him given his character questions off the field at that point.  
 

And yeah, I think it’s possible he gets a first or second.  You’re overly negative on him, the league, coaches, and fellow players are not.  

You’re overly negative on me speaking the truth.  He’s a good MLB.  I’ve said that more than enough times.  Teams don’t trade 1st round picks for good MLBs on their 5th year option.  Any examples of this happening?  

[Alphadawg7]

10 minutes ago, NewEra said:

You’re overly negative on me speaking the truth.  He’s a good MLB.  I’ve said that more than enough times.  Teams don’t trade 1st round picks for good MLBs on their 5th year option.  Any examples of this happening?  

Teams don’t trade 2 first round picks for a strong safety who can’t cover either…yet that happened.  
 

No disrespect, but the “historical” argument I always find pointless.  The game is forever evolving, and trade values or importance of roles are changing with that.  And how teams value players they can add in FA or trade will vary with each team and the makeup of that team.  
 

Look at the WRs this year, their values went through the roof off a couple free Agency moves (especially Kirk) that changed the compensation and value charts of WRs immensely across the league.  
 

So I don’t care what’s happened before, facts are facts.  24 year old LB, multiple pro bowls, 5th in league in tackles since entering the league, athletic freak, great in coverage in a passing league, captain of the the number 1 defense in the NFL.  
 

I’m not even saying he isn’t replaceable, I’m just sighting his resume to those on the outside looking in.  And opposing coaches and players gush about him all the time and he is the by far the most cited player opposing teams talk about game planning for each week.  so his reputation and admiration is strong IMHO across the league.
 

He, at his position with his coverage ability, has more value right now than ever before.  Which is exactly why he will almost certainly not be traded ahead of a serous push for the first SB victory in Bills history unless Beane gets an offer he can’t refuse.  

Edited April 20, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I knew right when Seattle traded the amount they did for Adams it was laughably bad…. And of course the board clowned on the Jets for trading an all pro safety…. That guy is an overrated jack ass. Jets won that trade by a landslide…. 

 

Seattle has been the worst FO in the NFL for about 6 or 7 years now.

[NewEra]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

Teams don’t trade 2 first round picks for a strong safety who can’t cover either…yet that happened.  
 

No disrespect, but the “historical” argument I always find pointless.  The game is forever evolving, and trade values or importance of roles are changing with that.  And how teams value players they can add in FA or trade will vary with each team and the makeup of that team.  
 

Look at the WRs this year, their values went through the roof off a couple free Agency moves (especially Kirk) that changed the compensation and value charts of WRs immensely across the league.  
 

So I don’t care what’s happened before, facts are facts.  24 year old LB, multiple pro bowls, 5th in league in tackles since entering the league, athletic freak, great in coverage in a passing league, captain of the the number 1 defense in the NFL.
I’m not even saying he isn’t replaceable, I’m just sighting his resume to those on the outside looking in.  And opposing coaches and players gush about him all the time and he is the by far the most cited player opposing teams talk about game planning for each week.  so his reputation and admiration is strong IMHO across the league.
 

He, at his position with his coverage ability, has more value right now than ever before.  Which is exactly why he will almost certainly not be traded ahead of a serous push for the first SB victory in Bills history unless Beane gets an offer he can’t refuse.  

facts are facts?  You’re saying that he’s fetch a 1st or 2nd round pick…..based on what facts?  he’s 24 and has been to multiple pro bowls. Denzel perryman beat him out for the pro bowl last season….. what’s he fetching?  The league obviously thinks he’s better than Edmunds….right?  He did make the pro bowl over him and pro bowls are evidently very important.  All the coaches gushed about Denzel perryman too.  Yet there isn’t a coach in the league that would trade a 1st rd pick for him. 
 

positional value makes any team trading a first round pick for him extremely unlikely.  
Yes, seattle made a huge mistake while trading for a guy they thought was the best safety in the league.  1st team all pro.  2x 2nd team all pro.  Edmunds 0x all pro.  But talk about pro bowls as if they measure something other than positional ranking within one conference.  Denzel Perryman > Edmunds according to this rationale. 
 

we’ll just wait and see what edmunds fetches in a trade.  Crickets imo.  
 

 

[Alphadawg7]

21 minutes ago, NewEra said:

facts are facts?  You’re saying that he’s fetch a 1st or 2nd round pick…..based on what facts?  he’s 24 and has been to multiple pro bowls. Denzel perryman beat him out for the pro bowl last season….. what’s he fetching?  The league obviously thinks he’s better than Edmunds….right?  He did make the pro bowl over him and pro bowls are evidently very important.  All the coaches gushed about Denzel perryman too.  Yet there isn’t a coach in the league that would trade a 1st rd pick for him. 
 

positional value makes any team trading a first round pick for him extremely unlikely.  
Yes, seattle made a huge mistake while trading for a guy they thought was the best safety in the league.  1st team all pro.  2x 2nd team all pro.  Edmunds 0x all pro.  But talk about pro bowls as if they measure something other than positional ranking within one conference.  Denzel Perryman > Edmunds according to this rationale. 
 

we’ll just wait and see what edmunds fetches in a trade.  Crickets imo.  
 

 

I didn’t say facts are facts about what he would fetch.  I said facts or facts about his resume.  
 

On his trade value, I have said each time “IMHO”.  
 

And no you won’t wait and see what Edmunds fetches in trade…because he’s not going to be traded without an offer Beane can’t refuse.  
 

He is worth a lot more to us this year in pursuit of a SB trophy than the trade value you previously placed on him which was peanuts.  Nothings impossible, but it’s unlikely he gets traded this year.

[NewEra]

23 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I didn’t say facts are facts about what he would fetch.  I said facts or facts about his resume.  
 

On his trade value, I have said each time “IMHO”.  
 

And no you won’t wait and see what Edmunds fetches in trade…because he’s not going to be traded without an offer Beane can’t refuse.  
 

He is worth a lot more to us this year in pursuit of a SB trophy than the trade value you previously placed on him which was peanuts.  Nothings impossible, but it’s unlikely he gets traded this year.

Beane won’t be able to refuse a 1st round pick offer….I promise.  Unfortunately, we won’t be getting that offer….so there will be nothing to discuss.  Same goes for a 2nd round offer imo.  I agree that he is worth more to us in 2022 than a 3rd round pick would be…..another reason why he won’t be traded and why we’ll never see him traded.  
 

He can help us win a super bowl and I’m ok keeping him this year for that reason.  He’ll be better in 2022 than any LB that we draft in rd 2 or 3, possibly rd 1.  I just don’t think we should be paying him over 11M a year going forward.  
 

Regarding his Lb greatness….Tackles and pro bowls are your facts….. pro bowls are trivial.  Tackles even more trivial.  Sometimes tackles supports it.  Sometimes it doesn’t.  Edmunds was 35th in total tackles last year.  Kyzir White, Cole Holcomb and Alex singleton had more tackles than Darius Leonard and Fred Warner.  Juwaun Bentley, Tae Crowder, TJ edwards, Kamu grugier hill, Tracey Walker had more tackles than Edmunds.  But let’s use tackles to support the claim that a LB is better than good.  

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/defense.htm#defense::tackles_combined

 

And I won’t go into depth regarding his pff coverage rating as I think he’s definitely better than his rating.  It’s just strange that known good coverage LBers Warner, Lavonte David, Demario Davis, Micah Parsons, Leonard, Kendricks, roquon, JOK, Wilson  plus so many others have green ratings over 66 while edmunds is 4th worst @ 34.6.  Why is Edmunds’ rating so low while the others so high?  Scheme….. 💯 scheme. 

 

edmunds best traits are height and length.  If he were 6’0 240 do you think he’d be a plus starter?  Luckily for him, his height and length are a huge part of what makes him a good LB.  no chance we get a 1st rd pick for him because of positional value + the player that he is.  

[Dr. Who]

This is tangential, but Edmunds' measurables also reinforce my belief we aren't taking a short-armed CB @25.

 

[GunnerBill]

33 minutes ago, NewEra said:

 

And I won’t go into depth regarding his pff coverage rating as I think he’s definitely better than his rating.  It’s just strange that known good coverage LBers Warner, Lavonte David, Demario Davis, Micah Parsons, Leonard, Kendricks, roquon, JOK, Wilson  plus so many others have green ratings over 66 while edmunds is 4th worst @ 34.6.  Why is Edmunds’ rating so low while the others so high?  Scheme….. 💯 scheme. 

 

 

78% of the pass plays where he was targeted in coverage were complete. The worst number since his rookie year. His best number came in 2019, his second year as a pro, and I still say he played his best football that year. Yes he still played the wrong gap in the run game some times but I thought coming out of that year he was trending towards elite in terms of pass defense. Don't think he has played as well since then. 

Edited April 20, 2022 by GunnerBill

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

78% of the pass plays where he was targeted in coverage were complete. The worst number since his rookie year. His best number came in 2019, his second year as a pro, and I still say he played his best football that year. Yes he still played the wrong gap in the run game some times but I thought coming out of that year he was trending towards elite in terms of pass defense. Don't think he has played as well since then. 

💯 

 

thanks for the stats to back it up.  That said, I don’t think he’s close to being the 4th worst coverage Lb in the league.  I brought it up because people are using the terms “great in coverage” multiple times trying to support how valuable he is.  His best trait in coverage his height and length.  I do believe that his physical size can have an affect on whether or not Some QBs throw certain passes….but I think it’s a bit overrated as supported by your stat. 

[glazeduck]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

78% of the pass plays where he was targeted in coverage were complete. The worst number since his rookie year. His best number came in 2019, his second year as a pro, and I still say he played his best football that year. Yes he still played the wrong gap in the run game so far but I thought coming out of that year he was trending towards elite in terms of pass defense. Don't think he has played as well since then. 

The problem with independent defensive player analytics like completions when targeted is that they don't encapsulate the whole picture. Like NewEra said, we actively schemed and funneled targets TO Edmunds. I'd want to know how many of those completed targets yac'd more than, say 3 or 4 yards? How many converted 1st downs? How many resulted in missed tackles? This is what anti-Edmunds people are missing. The degree to which this coaching staff trusts Edmunds to be the QB on the defense, make adjustments at the line, communicate and get everyone on the same page and then to also be the guy they want the ball going to, tells me they think he's the anchor of this defense, and it's been one that's been pretty good the last few years. Oh and by the way he's still young and athletic.

 

To be clear, yes, I'd love to see him be better in coverage, OF COURSE it'd be great to have a Deion Sanders-like shutdown guy at MLB, but to expect a rookie, or frankly most of the NFL to do all of the things that Tremaine does for this defense, is asking for trouble.  

[GunnerBill]

Just now, glazeduck said:

The problem with independent defensive player analytics like completions when targeted is that they don't encapsulate the whole picture. Like NewEra said, we actively schemed and funneled targets TO Edmunds. I'd want to know how many of those completed targets yac'd more than, say 3 or 4 yards? How many converted 1st downs? How many resulted in missed tackles? This is what anti-Edmunds people are missing. The degree to which this coaching staff trusts Edmunds to be the QB on the defense, make adjustments at the line, communicate and get everyone on the same page and then to also be the guy they want the ball going to, tells me they think he's the anchor of this defense, and it's been one that's been pretty good the last few years. Oh and by the way he's still young and athletic.

 

To be clear, yes, I'd love to see him be better in coverage, OF COURSE it'd be great to have a Deion Sanders-like shutdown guy at MLB, but to expect a rookie, or frankly most of the NFL to do all of the things that Tremaine does for this defense, is asking for trouble.  

 

Quite. And I am NOT an anti-Edmunds guy as such. But my eye test tells me the best year he had as a coverage linebacker was 2019 and the numbers just happen to support that. Have teams evolved the way that they attack him? Yes, definitely, that is part of it. But my issue with him is I don't think he is necessarily a better player now than he was in 2019. He is another lightening rod guy who is better than his detractors sometimes suggest but who there are legitimate reasons to criticise. I'm firmly in the let him play on the option and make him earn a new deal next spring camp. I also happen to think that is the way it is trending, thought I don't totally rule out Beane extending him after the draft. 

[glazeduck]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Quite. And I am NOT an anti-Edmunds guy as such. But my eye test tells me the best year he had as a coverage linebacker was 2019 and the numbers just happen to support that. Have teams evolved the way that they attack him? Yes, definitely, that is part of it. But my issue with him is I don't think he is necessarily a better player now than he was in 2019. He is another lightening rod guy who is better than his detractors sometimes suggest but who there are legitimate reasons to criticise. I'm firmly in the let him play on the option and make him earn a new deal next spring camp. I also happen to think that is the way it is trending, thought I don't totally rule out Beane extending him after the draft. 

Yeah I agree on all of this -- wasn't necessarily targeting you, more the larger narrative around him. I think this staff really highly values what he does for this defense, and between all of that, his age, length and athleticism, I don't think there's a better option walking in that door anytime soon. 

 

The numbers are what they are, and yes they're "worse" than previous years, but again, I'd also suggest that the staff is probably more concerned about the implication data of those recs, rather than the recs themselves in a vacuum -- what those look like, I don't know. 

Edited April 20, 2022 by glazeduck

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Yeah I agree on all of this -- wasn't necessarily targeting you, more the larger narrative around him. I think this staff really highly values what he does for this defense, and between all of that, his age, length and athleticism, I don't think there's a better option walking in that door anytime soon. 

 

The numbers are what they are, and yes they're "worse" than previous years, but again, I'd also suggest that the staff is probably more concerned about the implication data of those recs, rather than the recs themselves in a vacuum -- what those look like, I don't know. 

Agreed. 

 

What do you think his JJ draft pick value would be in a trade?

[glazeduck]

25 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Agreed. 

 

What do you think his JJ draft pick value would be in a trade?

 

I usually bow out of discussions using that chart, because you just cant truly quantify what a player is worth on a static chart like that (not to mention I've been told by more than a couple NFL front office people that they don't even consider it in their trade discussions)... All that said and just for funsies... I'd say high -- like probably multiple valuable picks high. 

 

You have to take the whole picture into the equation: 

• We're right in the middle of our SB window
• As established, I believe this staff thinks highly of everything he does for us
• His youth and athleticism
• His knowledge of the defense (even if you think one of the rookies is a "better" player, they absolutely will have a learning curve that could either create problems OR cause us to call a more simplified defense)
• Free agency isn't exactly flooded with great MLB options, so you're not going to find a 1 for 1 replacement there.
• Then there's also the consideration of not wanting to trade him to a contending or division team, which narrows your trading partners down by at least 1/3 of the league...

So your takeback in an Edmunds trade is going to have to offset ALL of that. Does that exist? Maybe. Is his contract situation a potential reason to move him? I can see the argument. But speaking realistically, I think his value to us, is more than a team out there will want to give on top of a long term contract.

 

If it were me, and I'm absolutely trading Edmunds, I'd be trying to position myself to land Jameson Williams, Breece Hall, an OL upgrade and a CB in the first 2 rounds. Sign a FA to man the spot for a year and a heir to the MLB spot in the 3rd...

Would the Steelers give us their 1, 2 and something else to unite the Edmunds brothers? (1230+ points)

Texans 1 and 2? (1680) Vikings? (1620)

 

Just not a lot of obvious fits out there where you can talk yourself into the other team being interested... (and for the record, I don't think any of these are realistic)

Edited April 20, 2022 by glazeduck

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

 

I usually bow out of discussions using that chart, because you just cant truly quantify what a player is worth on a static chart like that (not to mention I've been told by more than a couple NFL front office people that they don't even consider it in their trade discussions)... All that said and just for funsies... I'd say high -- like probably multiple valuable picks high. 

 

You have to take the whole picture into the equation: 

• We're right in the middle of our SB window
• As established, I believe this staff thinks highly of everything he does for us
• His youth and athleticism
• His knowledge of the defense (even if you think one of the rookies is a "better" player, they absolutely will have a learning curve that could either create problems OR cause us to call a more simplified defense)
• Free agency isn't exactly flooded with great MLB options, so you're not going to find a 1 for 1 replacement there.
• Then there's also the consideration of not wanting to trade him to a contending or division team, which narrows your trading partners down by at least 1/3 of the league...

So your takeback in an Edmunds trade is going to have to offset ALL of that. Does that exist? Maybe. Is his contract situation a potential reason to move him? I can see the argument. But speaking realistically, I think his value to us, is more than a team out there will want to give on top of a long term contract.

 

If it were me, and I'm absolutely trading Edmunds, I'd be trying to position myself to land Jameson Williams, Breece Hall, an OL upgrade and a CB in the first 2 rounds. Sign a FA to man the spot for a year and a heir to the MLB spot in the 3rd...

Would the Steelers give us their 1, 2 and something else to unite the Edmunds brothers? (1230+ points)

Texans 1 and 2? (1680) Vikings? (1620)

 

Just not a lot of obvious fits out there where you can talk yourself into the other team being interested...

I agree with everything up top.  i think he’s worth keeping for anything less than 2nd/high 3rd because he can help us win a SB this year. 
 

I scoff at the thought that any team would give up even just 1 1st rd pick for him.  Why not just take Dean or Bush, pay them a fraction of what edmunds will make and use that money on another impact player.  
 

especially teams like the Steelers and Texans who are strictly building with no chance at SB contention.  Would be a poor use of their most valuable assets:  1st rd picks and 12M+ cap room-  for a mlb.  
 

 

[Rochesterfan]

This issue is so complicated and I don’t think there is a good way to prove any of it short of a trade.

 

Edmunds has a significant number of Pros - as pointed out by @Alphadawg7 and would be a fine addition to many teams.

 

Edmunds also has a number of deficiencies as pointed out by @NewEra and with his current contract it makes it very hard to get any value in a trade.

 

I think the truth lies someplace down the middle - with his current contract and his deficiencies he is worth less as a trade - especially if that trade is being initiated by the Bills.  Probably someplace in the mid 2nd - early 4th depending on what else gets thrown in.

 

The problem becomes who and what would move him. I could see a scenario where the Bills and Giants use a few players and picks to rearrange needs for the year.  Players like Edmunds and/or Poyer to NYG with Bradberry coming back - some adjustment in picks following suit and allowing both teams to fill the holes created.  Balance the money and position to help each team going forward.

 

I just do not see a scenario where we see a trade for true value because the Bills are not giving up their Defensive Leaders this year without already having replacements in place that can handle the role.

 

 

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

This issue is so complicated and I don’t think there is a good way to prove any of it short of a trade.

 

Edmunds has a significant number of Pros - as pointed out by @Alphadawg7 and would be a fine addition to many teams.

 

Edmunds also has a number of deficiencies as pointed out by @NewEra and with his current contract it makes it very hard to get any value in a trade.

 

I think the truth lies someplace down the middle - with his current contract and his deficiencies he is worth less as a trade - especially if that trade is being initiated by the Bills.  Probably someplace in the mid 2nd - early 4th depending on what else gets thrown in.

 

The problem becomes who and what would move him. I could see a scenario where the Bills and Giants use a few players and picks to rearrange needs for the year.  Players like Edmunds and/or Poyer to NYG with Bradberry coming back - some adjustment in picks following suit and allowing both teams to fill the holes created.  Balance the money and position to help each team going forward.

 

I just do not see a scenario where we see a trade for true value because the Bills are not giving up their Defensive Leaders this year without already having replacements in place that can handle the role.

 

 

Great post. 👍🏻 

 

a scenario with the giants def makes the most sense.  Long shot for sure, but maybe we give up edmunds, 25, next years first and mid picks for Bradberry and 7.

[glazeduck]

24 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I agree with everything up top.  i think he’s worth keeping for anything less than 2nd/high 3rd because he can help us win a SB this year. 
 

I scoff at the thought that any team would give up even just 1 1st rd pick for him.  Why not just take Dean or Bush, pay them a fraction of what edmunds will make and use that money on another impact player.  
 

especially teams like the Steelers and Texans who are strictly building with no chance at SB contention.  Would be a poor use of their most valuable assets:  1st rd picks and 12M+ cap room-  for a mlb.  
 

 

You're making my point for me. From the Bills' perspective, unless you come out as a clear winner and offsetting losing the central figure and quarterback of your defense with a larger upgrade it's not worth making that trade. From another team's perspective, you're bringing in a guy who's going to have to learn a new system and almost instantly pay him a bunch of money when you could draft one and have the same "start from ground zero" effect in play.

 

You asked what I thought his trade value was, not what sensible deals would be for him. I happen to think the Bills have his trade value as extremely high. What does a 2nd, 3rd or 4th round pick get you that makes us better now aside from a cheaper salary? I just don't think that kind of thinking wins championships...

[Rochesterfan]

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Great post. 👍🏻 

 

a scenario with the giants def makes the most sense.  Long shot for sure, but maybe we give up edmunds, 25, next years first and mid picks for Bradberry and 7.

I could see something like that - my only problem with that is if they move to 7 - I think it is for Stingly or Hamilton and therefore I am not sure Bradberry and Edmonds are the deal.

 

I could really see that play out if Poyer replaced Edmunds in that trade case to give us Bradberry and then draft Hamilton.

 

I don’t see a LB worthy of that high a pick and if they move up for Stingly - I don’t think they want Bradberry in return.

 

It is very difficult scenario to play out.