TSW Mock Draft 2.0 Poll - Who should the Bills take at 25?

[MrEpsYtown]

23 minutes ago, Logic said:

I’m normally Team “trade back!”, but Wilson is too good to pass up here. If he falls to 25, it’s a no brainer IMO.

Yeah this is where I am at. In real life, if  these QBs and freaking guards aren’t overdrafted, Wilson and McDuffie are gone, and I’m trading back with every once of effort. 

[Virgil]

I’m debating calling it already 

[NewEra]

@Alphadawg7 looking at the draft pick value chart in the mock draft thread, how many points do you think Edmunds is worth this offseason?

[DallasMac]

Wilson is the obvious choice and i think he's talented,  but I really think he's going to have drop issues in the pros.

[Warriorspikes51]

How is Wilson making it to 25

[Doc Brown]

After much deliberation the Jaguars are willing to deal Zay Jones for this pick.

[Virgil]

I’m calling it 

[buffaloboyinATL]

Seriously? Wilson drops to 25? Complete no brainer. 

[KOKBILLS]

Well...That was easy...

[BillsFanForever19]

2 votes for Christian Watson over Garrett Wilson? I like Christian Watson but c'mon! The guy was a 3rd Round prospect a few months ago and now he has superfans around here that have him as WR1. Absolute insanity.

[mannc]

1 minute ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

2 votes for Christian Watson over Garrett Wilson? I like Christian Watson but c'mon! The guy was a 3rd Round prospect a few months ago and now he has superfans around here that have him as WR1. Absolute insanity.

I’m not sure how you can say Watson “was a third round prospect” a few months ago…the draft is still 9 days away.  He’s bigger, faster and stronger than Garrett Wilson.  One of the biggest mistakes people make in evaluating draft prospects is over-emphasizing college production…it would not surprise me if Watson comes off the board before Wilson.

[buffaloboyinATL]

3 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

2 votes for Christian Watson over Garrett Wilson? I like Christian Watson but c'mon! The guy was a 3rd Round prospect a few months ago and now he has superfans around here that have him as WR1. Absolute insanity.

I’m actually more surprised that 9 people would vote “trade back” with Wilson on the board at 25. That, my friends, is why I am happy Beane is our GM instead of the armchair GM’s voting in this poll. 

[Peace Frog]

Wilson!

[GunnerBill]

I don't think Wilson sliding to this spot is the craziest scenario. He is only my WR4 I don't think he has that 1 trait you can hamg your hat on and that could cause a little slide. 

 

He would be BPA for me in this spot though and I'd pick him too. 

[NewEra]

32 minutes ago, mannc said:

I’m not sure how you can say Watson “was a third round prospect” a few months ago…the draft is still 9 days away.  He’s bigger, faster and stronger than Garrett Wilson.  One of the biggest mistakes people make in evaluating draft prospects is over-emphasizing college production…it would not surprise me if Watson comes off the board before Wilson.

Because according some of draft guys on tv and YouTube that hadn’t watched enough tape said so, obv.  Duh.  

[TBBills]

6 hours ago, NewEra said:

Trade UP and end up with 3-4 picks in the first 2 rounds?  So trade next years first, second round and 3rd + all of our 3-7 rd picks this year.  That’s what it’ll cost if you want to trade UP even once and still have  4 picks in the first 2 rounds.  
 

No chance.  Less than zero chance of us having 4 picks in rd 1-2

Good luck with that.

 

i could see us moving edmunds or Poyer…..and I would love to land 4 picks in rd 1-2…..but I think it’s going to cost a more draft picks in 2023 and all of this years picks + Edmunds and Poyer.  I don’t think 2 players on expiring contracts have as much value as some people think.  Jmo

Don't know why you think next years first would be needed...  your cost analysis is wrong.

[HIT BY SPIKES]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Copying and pasting my trade offer as the Seahawks:

 

We would like to move from #40 to #25. In exchange we will swap our 2nds (#41 for #57) and our 3rds (#72 for #89).

 

Seahawks end with - #25, #57, #89 (1,195 on the draft value chart)

 

Bills end with - #40, #41, #72 (1,220 on the draft value chart)

I NEVER envisioned the Bills trading down rather than up however with NOT one OL listed among the 15 poll options -- WTF? -- I agree with a trade down.

[GunnerBill]

41 minutes ago, TBBills said:

Don't know why you think next years first would be needed...  your cost analysis is wrong.

 

Because if you want to trade up at #25, which is what this thread is about, and then end up with 3 or 4 picks in the top 2 rounds then you need to give up two lots of stuff. Maybe that is not what you meant, maybe you meant pick at #25 then move up from the 3rd into the 2nd?

 

Let's imagine the Bills want to move up ahead of the Patriots in round 1 because they think the Pats might covet a receiver. To go from #25 to #20 with Pittsburgh is 130 points. That is basically our 3rd rounder, 145 points, you might get something back from Pittsburgh... either a 6th rounder or a 2023 5th possibly. 

 

Then to get even one extra pick in round two you are now having to jump up from round 4 to round 2. The points difference between our 4th rounder and the final pick in round 2 is 228 points. Our remaining 2022 picks (5th, two 6ths and 7th) add up to a total of 48 points. 

 

So if you want to move UP in round 1 and still be able to have additional picks in the second then you are going to have to give up assets next year. You could probably do the jump from #25 to #20 with next year's 2nd rounder rather than 1st.... but you are still giving up a next year's premium pick. But even then the jump from our 2022 3rd rounder to the final pick of round 2 in this draft is too big to make simply by clubbing all our remaining picks together. 

 

The ONLY ways for the Bills to get 3 picks in the first two rounds this year are: 

 

1. Trade back from #25;

2. Stand pat at #25 and select a player then trade up from the 3rd back into the back end of the second, likely giving up at least a 2023 3rd round pick to do so. 

3. Stand pat at #25 and select a player and then trade a player plus picks to get back into the 2nd. Tremaine Edmunds plus our 4th rounder might get you a 2nd round pick for instance. But I don't see the Bills doing that. 

13 minutes ago, HIT BY SPIKES said:

I NEVER envisioned the Bills trading down rather than up however with NOT one OL listed among the 15 poll options -- WTF? -- I agree with a trade down.

 

In a world where the four tackles and the three top interior players are all off the board (as they are in this mock) there really isn't a lot of OL that could come into consideration at #25. There are a couple of names you could throw out there but given that @Virgil is using the ESPN board to pull the options from I'm not at all surprised that there are no OL there. The seven top OL are all gone. 

[TBBills]

36 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Because if you want to trade up at #25, which is what this thread is about, and then end up with 3 or 4 picks in the top 2 rounds then you need to give up two lots of stuff. Maybe that is not what you meant, maybe you meant pick at #25 then move up from the 3rd into the 2nd?

 

Let's imagine the Bills want to move up ahead of the Patriots in round 1 because they think the Pats might covet a receiver. To go from #25 to #20 with Pittsburgh is 130 points. That is basically our 3rd rounder, 145 points, you might get something back from Pittsburgh... either a 6th rounder or a 2023 5th possibly. 

 

Then to get even one extra pick in round two you are now having to jump up from round 4 to round 2. The points difference between our 4th rounder and the final pick in round 2 is 228 points. Our remaining 2022 picks (5th, two 6ths and 7th) add up to a total of 48 points. 

 

So if you want to move UP in round 1 and still be able to have additional picks in the second then you are going to have to give up assets next year. You could probably do the jump from #25 to #20 with next year's 2nd rounder rather than 1st.... but you are still giving up a next year's premium pick. But even then the jump from our 2022 3rd rounder to the final pick of round 2 in this draft is too big to make simply by clubbing all our remaining picks together. 

 

The ONLY ways for the Bills to get 3 picks in the first two rounds this year are: 

 

1. Trade back from #25;

2. Stand pat at #25 and select a player then trade up from the 3rd back into the back end of the second, likely giving up at least a 2023 3rd round pick to do so. 

3. Stand pat at #25 and select a player and then trade a player plus picks to get back into the 2nd. Tremaine Edmunds plus our 4th rounder might get you a 2nd round pick for instance. But I don't see the Bills doing that. 

 

In a world where the four tackles and the three top interior players are all off the board (as they are in this mock) there really isn't a lot of OL that could come into consideration at #25. There are a couple of names you could throw out there but given that @Virgil is using the ESPN board to pull the options from I'm not at all surprised that there are no OL there. The seven top OL are all gone. 

Trying to win a Super Bowl is the only thing that matters.

 

Thank God Beane is the GM b.c if some people had their wish we would have a million draft picks lots of cap space and no players to help win championships.

Edited April 20, 2022 by TBBills

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, TBBills said:

Trying to win a Super Bowl is the only thing that matters.

 

That isn't in dispute. But your point was that New Era's maths was wrong. If it was it wasn't by much. Without giving up current players the cheapest you could both move up in round 1 and pick up an additional pick in round 2 (so that is 3 picks in the first two rounds and a move up in round 1) is at a cost of this year's 3rd, next year's 2nd and next year's 3rd. The idea you can do it cobbling together day 3 picks is what I was disputing.