Gunner's 2022 Draft Quarterback Evaluations

[Ayjent]

24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Honestly don't love that spot for him either. He would have two good downfield receivers but no run game, no oline, a coach on his last legs, and the offensive coordinator and Quarterbacks coach are both pretty unproven. 

Another bad fit as well. I think the Giants make sense, but not sure that would be a good pick for them that high.  Teams with need at QB would be unwise to pin their hopes on this class.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see QBs sliding out of the first round that were projected 1st rounders. 

 

It’s a weird draft and I’m not sure it’s a great year to have a high first round pick value wise.  I think ND safety may be best player in draft.  

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, Ayjent said:

Another bad fit as well. I think the Giants make sense, but not sure that would be a good pick for them that high.  Teams with need at QB would be unwise to pin their hopes on this class.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see QBs sliding out of the first round that were projected 1st rounders. 

 

It’s a weird draft and I’m not sure it’s a great year to have a high first round pick value wise.  I think ND safety may be best player in draft.  

 

Not sure about the Giants fit either given the state of their oline. I think oline will matter a lot early for Malik. If he goes somewhere where the oline stinks that is not  going to encourage him to stay in the pocket, and allow him the chance to develop as a processor and full field reader, because he will end up dropping his eyes, looking at the rush and then relying on his legs to get him out of dodge. I suppose if the Giants drafted a tackle at #5, Malik at #7 and then upgrade their interior in the rest of the draft I'd like it more. Certainly think the offensive coaching there with Dabes and Kafka would give you some degree of confidence at least... and there is going to be patience from the top. 

 

Agree it is not a great year to have a high 1st. There are not a lot of true top 10 types in this class for me. 

Edited April 25, 2022 by GunnerBill

[Ayjent]

39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Not sure about the Giants fit either given the state of their oline. I think oline will matter a lot early for Malik. If he goes somewhere where the oline stinks that is not  going to encourage him to stay in the pocket, and allow him the chance to develop as a processor and full field reader, because he will end up dropping his eyes, looking at the rush and then relying on his legs to get him out of dodge. I suppose if the Giants drafted a tackle at #5, Malik at #7 and then upgrade their interior in the rest of the draft I'd like it more. Certainly think the offensive coaching there with Dabes and Kafka would give you some degree of confidence at least... and there is going to be patience from the top. 

 

Agree it is not a great year to have a high 1st. There are not a lot of true top 10 types in this class for me. 

It really makes you wonder how a guy like Mayfield is still waiting to be traded, because he certainly has the skills at QB to be a decent placeholder at worst for some of these teams.  You really have to wonder how much of it is Mayfield and how much of it is the Browns wanting to too much and not really having the best hand to get what they are asking.  I know some people think Watson is a really talented QB.  I think he is good, but not great and I wouldn't want him with all of that stuff out there hanging on him.  To go out and get him and do what they did, there has to be some combination of Mayfield is not a good locker room presence and the Browns just continue to mishandle things.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Ayjent said:

It really makes you wonder how a guy like Mayfield is still waiting to be traded, because he certainly has the skills at QB to be a decent placeholder at worst for some of these teams.  You really have to wonder how much of it is Mayfield and how much of it is the Browns wanting to too much and not really having the best hand to get what they are asking.  I know some people think Watson is a really talented QB.  I think he is good, but not great and I wouldn't want him with all of that stuff out there hanging on him.  To go out and get him and do what they did, there has to be some combination of Mayfield is not a good locker room presence and the Browns just continue to mishandle things.

 

So I do think Watson is a really talented QB - definitely a top 6 guy when on the field. All the off field stuff is obviously a concern from an optics stand point and is a potential distraction but the Browns clearly felt comfortable with it. Remains to be seen how that pans out. 

 

I do think it suggests they concluded that Mayfield while competent has a ceiling and that may be as much about personality as ability. I still think Baker ends up starting somewhere in 2022. But I suspect teams want to see how the draft plays out first. Carolina if they don't go QB @ 6 is the obvious spot. 

[H2o]

Nice work as always @GunnerBill 

 

Matt Corral - I actually like him for many of the reasons you listed. He's a gamer, he showed good improvement, he's mobile, can make throws on the run, and he played against upper echelon college competition doing it. I could see a team like Washington, Pittsburgh, or NO taking a swing on him. Will he end up being elite? Probably not, but he could be a middling type with the potential to be good enough to stick as a starter. 

 

Malik Willis - I see him as a slower, kind of reverse version of Lamar Jackson. Willis excels on throws to the outside it seems, but struggles tremendously over the middle of the field. Lamar hits over the middle, but struggles to throw outside the hashes. Great athleticism, but he is going to need to work hard on his throwing motion to pull everything together. He is a guy who would absolutely benefit from working with Jordan Palmer. We'll see if he has the smarts and dedication to fulfill his potential. 

 

Kenny Pickett - I think he has a pretty high floor, but I'm not really sure his ceiling is that high either. He's solid, but there is nothing really special about him. He's decent with ball placement, he's decent with his progressions, his arm is decent, but nothing is exceptional. He may be a middling type of starter or carve out a long career as a backup. 

 

Desmond Ridder - For some reason I think Kaepernick when watching him. Kaep was only a 58% career passer, but had some success in the league for a while because of the team he was on. If he lands on a team with a good defense, and in the right system, he could be effective. His deficiencies can be covered up by his athleticism in some instances. If he works hard to get his throwing motion under better control then he could be a middling type of starter as well or a solid backup. 

 

After that, I got nothing. I didn't watch any of the other QB's first hand. 

[SoCal Deek]

I have to admit I just quickly scrolled through the post and analysis looking for which round each was projected and then chuckled when I didn’t see a single first rounder. Last night the NFL Network gang’s Final Mock had at least three of them going in the first. Experts apparently abound this time of year. I’ll go with Gunner.

[Ayjent]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So I do think Watson is a really talented QB - definitely a top 6 guy when on the field. All the off field stuff is obviously a concern from an optics stand point and is a potential distraction but the Browns clearly felt comfortable with it. Remains to be seen how that pans out. 

 

I do think it suggests they concluded that Mayfield while competent has a ceiling and that may be as much about personality as ability. I still think Baker ends up starting somewhere in 2022. But I suspect teams want to see how the draft plays out first. Carolina if they don't go QB @ 6 is the obvious spot. 

The 4-12 season where the Texans were a mess did bring some things into question.  If you have a QB that is as good as he is supposed to be, you still likely make it a lot closer to .500 ball.  I know that you can't put that all on him and O'Brien was a disaster for that franchise, turning a promise team into a bottom feeder.  That's the question for me.  Yes he had a big playoff win against the Bills, but chances are the Bills win that game with a different call on Cody Ford.  Not trying to crap on him as a player because I'm not saying he isn't good, but I haven't really seen anything that supports the haul the Texans got and contract the Browns gave him.  His last season had a lot of garbage time yards and TDs, and the last one he didn't play.   He also had Hopkins who is just an incredible player and I'm not sure he's going to have the same success without a talent like that catching passes, and I don't think Cleveland fans are going to be forgiving if he struggles.  Seems like a lot of pressure and not a lot of wiggle room for the way this all has played out up to now.

 

I think a lot of has changed in the trajectories of the young QBs since then, with Allen and Mahomes clearly the class above the rest of the younger guys.  Brady, Rodgers, and Stafford are the old guard.  I don't think you can put Watson above any of those 5 guys, then you have Burrow, Herbert, R. Wilson, L. Jackson, and Prescott who you could argue are better than Watson.  Not saying they are or aren't but certainly debatable, and given the baggage I'd take any of them in a heartbeat over Watson.

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, Ayjent said:

The 4-12 season where the Texans were a mess did bring some things into question.  If you have a QB that is as good as he is supposed to be, you still likely make it a lot closer to .500 ball.  I know that you can't put that all on him and O'Brien was a disaster for that franchise, turning a promise team into a bottom feeder.  That's the question for me.  Yes he had a big playoff win against the Bills, but chances are the Bills win that game with a different call on Cody Ford.  Not trying to crap on him as a player because I'm not saying he isn't good, but I haven't really seen anything that supports the haul the Texans got and contract the Browns gave him.  His last season had a lot of garbage time yards and TDs, and the last one he didn't play.   He also had Hopkins who is just an incredible player and I'm not sure he's going to have the same success without a talent like that catching passes, and I don't think Cleveland fans are going to be forgiving if he struggles.  Seems like a lot of pressure and not a lot of wiggle room for the way this all has played out up to now.

 

I watched a lot of the Texans that year. They found some incredible ways to lose. Wide open receivers dropping passes in the endzone, fumbling on the goalline inside 10 seconds to play.... I don't put that season on Watson at all. There were not actually as many garbage yards as you may think. They lost 8 games by one score. We just saw with the Bills even with an all world elite Quarterback sometimes that can happen in a season and it isn't the QB's fault. I think he was a top 6 QB. I'd take him above Stafford and I have always been a big Matt Stafford guy. Now whether he can get back to that level of play after a year off and what is undoubtedly an enormous amount of mental pressure from the off field and then the big contract, that remains to be seen. 

 

[Ayjent]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I watched a lot of the Texans that year. They found some incredible ways to lose. Wide open receivers dropping passes in the endzone, fumbling on the goalline inside 10 seconds to play.... I don't put that season on Watson at all. There were not actually as many garbage yards as you may think. They lost 8 games by one score. We just saw with the Bills even with an all world elite Quarterback sometimes that can happen in a season and it isn't the QB's fault. I think he was a top 6 QB. I'd take him above Stafford and I have always been a big Matt Stafford guy. Now whether he can get back to that level of play after a year off and what is undoubtedly an enormous amount of mental pressure from the off field and then the big contract, that remains to be seen. 

 

Good points, and I fully recognize coaching/roster was terrible.  I remember laughing when O’Brien won the power struggle with full control and saying to myself this isn’t going to end well for the Texans. 
 

Speaking of the Texans they have to be looking at QB in this draft, who do you see them potentially going after?

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Ayjent said:

Good points, and I fully recognize coaching/roster was terrible.  I remember laughing when O’Brien won the power struggle with full control and saying to myself this isn’t going to end well for the Texans. 
 

Speaking of the Texans they have to be looking at QB in this draft, who do you see them potentially going after?

 

Nah I see them rolling with Davis Mills this year. He played pretty well last year at times. I think they will wait and see how he does then if he isn't the guy draft one next year.