Gunner's 2022 Draft Quarterback Evaluations

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Imagine where these QBs would have landed in the 2021 draft?

 

90% of this board thinks that Mac Jones sucks and he is 5x better than any of those listed here. 

 

Mac would be QB1 in this draft for a lot of people. I actually have Malik a half point higher than I had Mac based on his ceiling but Mac would be QB2 at absolute worst. 

[mannc]

44 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

 

It is the worst one I have looked at in terms of top end guys, definitely. 2014 was my first year trying to grade players so I don't have grades from 2013 I can go back to.

Let me save you the trouble; 2013 was worse, by a lot.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, mannc said:

Let me save you the trouble; 2013 was worse, by a lot.

 

Yea that would be my instinct too, because I do think that in 3 years you could have a couple of guys from this class who are starters though maybe not stars. By year 3 NONE of the 2013 class were starters. But I just meant I didn't give any of those guys grades so I can't give an honest comparison between what I think now and what I thought before that draft. Then I was much more just watching highlight videos and listening to talking heads. 

[mannc]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea that would be my instinct too, because I do think that in 3 years you could have a couple of guys from this class who are starters though maybe not stars. By year 3 NONE of the 2013 class were starters. But I just meant I didn't give any of those guys grades so I can't give an honest comparison between what I think now and what I thought before that draft. Then I was much more just watching highlight videos and listening to talking heads. 

On the other hand, Geno Smith is still in the league…he might even be QB1 on Seattle’s depth chart right now🤣🤣

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

On the other hand, Geno Smith is still in the league…he might even be QB1 on Seattle’s depth chart right now🤣🤣

 

Didn't Mike Glennon start a game for the Giants last year too? And Barkley was on all 32 practice squads I think....

[BillsFan4]

Thanks Gunner! I look forward to reading your Qb evaluations every year.

[JimKellyTryouts]

Great work! Will other positions (e.g. CB and their potential fits in the Bills scheme) possibly be on deck?

 

[PetermansRedemption]

4 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

It reminds me of the EJ Manuel draft class.

Definitely. A terrible year to have a true need at QB and a bad year to be drafting in the top 3. 

[Buffalo Junction]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have seen the Dalton comparison before, yea. That makes sense to me. There is some Mayfield to Howell, but Baker had a better arm, a more developed sense of progressions and was a better college player. But yea, Howell and Corral both have a Mayfield esque quality to them.

We’ll see if his ability to read the field evolves, but Howell reminds me more of Fitzpatrick than Mayfield (height aside). Similar body composition, throwing motion, moxy, and streaky play. 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

We’ll see if his ability to read the field evolves, but Howell reminds me more of Fitzpatrick than Mayfield (height aside). Similar body composition, throwing motion, moxy, and streaky play. 

 

Yea when I described him as low end starter / high end backup in my conclusion the two guys in my head were Keenum and Fitz. 

[Aurelius]

Sleeper of the draft will be Jack Coan of Notre Dame.  Mark it down.  

[Bill from NYC]

9 minutes ago, Aurelius said:

Sleeper of the draft will be Jack Coan of Notre Dame.  Mark it down.  

 

Thanks for the great work GB. I for one found Corral to be an interesting college QB. How would you rate him when compared to Mac Jones?

Edited April 23, 2022 by Bill from NYC

[GunnerBill]

23 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

 

Thanks for the great work GB. I for one found Corral to be an interesting college QB. How would you rate him when compared to Mac Jones?

 

Preferred Jones, primarily because of his ability to read defenses. I think Corral benefitted from a lot of Lane Kiffin gimmick and defined read offense. 

[CNYfan]

On 4/18/2022 at 1:50 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

Mac would be QB1 in this draft for a lot of people. I actually have Malik a half point higher than I had Mac based on his ceiling but Mac would be QB2 at absolute worst. 

Davis Mills would be in the top 3 or 4 of this class

Edited April 24, 2022 by CNYfan
Clarification

[MasterStrategist]

Great analysis and thank you, @GunnerBill.

 

I think this could setup a "trade back" situation, for teams at the end of round 1.  Some QB needy team selecting in the top 10, may not spend that capital on this crop but willing to part with their 2nd and 3rd to move up if "their guy" is still available (and many teams have varying opinions, no true #1 qb prospect this season).  

 

Couple this with a fewer 1st round graded players, maybe 20ish, and this presents a good chance teams will be looking to move up to 18-22 range, or out of round 1.  

 

 

[Ayjent]

On 4/23/2022 at 5:30 PM, Aurelius said:

Sleeper of the draft will be Jack Coan of Notre Dame.  Mark it down.  

I hope you’re kidding. I saw him play against Cincinnati and he was not competent. He’ll be fighting for a roster spot for as long as his NFL career lasts and that may not be long. 
 

This is a bad class of QBs. Malik Willis is probably the best and could be effective in a Greg Roman style offense.   I see the Panthers reaching for him early and Rhule’s offensive philosophy is just not a good fit. As a QB prospect you don’t want to go there bc you know Rhule is on the hot seat and likely you are looking at a new regime next year.  You might also get yanked around or forced into a bad situation as coach does desperate things to keep job. 

[GunnerBill]

25 minutes ago, Ayjent said:

I hope you’re kidding. I saw him play against Cincinnati and he was not competent. He’ll be fighting for a roster spot for as long as his NFL career lasts and that may not be long. 
 

This is a bad class of QBs. Malik Willis is probably the best and could be effective in a Greg Roman style offense.   I see the Panthers reaching for him early and Rhule’s offensive philosophy is just not a good fit. As a QB prospect you don’t want to go there bc you know Rhule is on the hot seat and likely you are looking at a new regime next year.  You might also get yanked around or forced into a bad situation as coach does desperate things to keep job. 

 

Malik should be praying not to go to Carolina. If Detroit, or Pittsburgh or New Orleans takes him, with some pieces around him, vet QBs, no need to rush him into the lineup and he gets good coaching I think he can be successful. As you say a project rookie QB on a team with a Head Coach in a "win now or else" year is a recipe for disaster. They are likely to rush him in too early and then to sacrifice his development as a passer for just relying on his legs to try and eek out wins. 

 

[4merper4mer]

27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Malik should be praying not to go to Carolina. If Detroit, or Pittsburgh or New Orleans takes him, with some pieces around him, vet QBs, no need to rush him into the lineup and he gets good coaching I think he can be successful. As you say a project rookie QB on a team with a Head Coach in a "win now or else" year is a recipe for disaster. They are likely to rush him in too early and then to sacrifice his development as a passer for just relying on his legs to try and eek out wins. 

 

I think Seattle is going to take him.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

I think Seattle is going to take him.

 

Honestly don't love that spot for him either. He would have two good downfield receivers but no run game, no oline, a coach on his last legs, and the offensive coordinator and Quarterbacks coach are both pretty unproven. 

[4merper4mer]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Honestly don't love that spot for him either. He would have two good downfield receivers but no run game, no oline, a coach on his last legs, and the offensive coordinator and Quarterbacks coach are both pretty unproven. 

I just think they are going to take him that’s all.  Not speaking to the fit.  I don’t disagree on OL but Penny started showing at the end of the year.  If healthy I think he surprises people. In 22.