Gunner's 2022 Draft Quarterback Evaluations

[GunnerBill]

**** Warning Long Post ****

 

Well, here we are, ten days out from the 2022 NFL draft. As such it is time for me to go on record with my thoughts on the Quarterbacks I have watched in this class. I know these threads are generally (and thankfully) of less interest to a lot of Bills fans these days because we have our Quarterback. However, I've still watched the film so might as well share my thoughts. I have watched what I think are pretty much the consensus "top 6" Quarterbacks in this class. I will start by saying I think that the general buzz on this not being a great Quarterback group is correct.

 

A reminder of my process for those who are new before we begin: 

 

1. My process is four step as every year:

- Try to identify the runners and riders at Quarterback the summer before (although increasingly there seems to be a guy who jumps right up boards each year these days - Kenny Pickett was not on my watch list last summer);

- Try and watch each at least twice in live game action on tv by mid season (I failed to achieve this for both Pickett and for Malik Willis... I struggled to find live streams for Liberty football);

- From new year work on the film out there on each and start to break down for evaluation purposes - for non QBs on my draft board my rule is must have seen 3 full games minimum. For Quarterbacks I set that number at 6;

- Pick up on anyone who came late onto the scene and catch up with their film.  

 

2. I try and balance the games I watch back in the evaluation phase for each prospect. I want to see them at their best and their worst in so far as is possible and against a range of opposition where possible.  

 

3. My grades for each are against an objective scale…. They are not predictions of where players should go in the draft, nor are they relative to the strength of the rest of that year’s draft class.  Mid to late first round does not mean “oh my God Gunner only has player x 25th on his big board”. Second round grade does also not mean I'd never take the guy in the first. The one position where I think you can always justify what might on pure grade be a reach is for a potential franchise Quarterback.

 

So here we go, in no particular order....

 

Matt Corral - Ole Miss - Redshirt Junior

Games watched: South Carolina & LSU (2020); Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Liberty (2021)

 

Pros:

• Much improved decision maker in 2021. Generally knows when to get rid of the ball, when to eat it and when to leave the pocket.
• Operates the quick game effectively. Ran an offense with lots of staple pro quick game concepts including the out and the slant. Throws the slant particularly well even into tight windows.
• Mobile, can make play with his legs (though I wouldn’t say that would be a weapon in the pros). Also throws exceptionally well on the move which is indicative of his ability to still control his accuracy when throwing off platform.
• Some experience under center in the Ole Miss offense which means he comes into the NFL able to run traditional play action boot concepts as well fake handoffs from the shotgun and the RPO all of which should enable a team to design a scheme to help him succeed early.
• Throws with good touch and ball placement in the short and intermediate range which should give his playmakers YAC opportunities at the next level.
• A gamer who elevated the talent around him. A lot of drops from an underwhelming Ole Miss receiving corps on film and his oline wasn’t great either but Corral has a knack for just making plays in crunch spots – often off-script.

 

Cons:

• His accuracy takes a significant hit beyond 20 yards down the field. Too many of his deep balls don’t give his receivers a shot to make a play and he leaves some of them short which turn into easy picks for defensive backs.
• Size concerns me. He measured just under 6’2 at the combine and weighted in at 212lbs but he looks smaller than that on the field – worry about his body standing up to NFL hits and there were too many batted or tipped balls on his film.
• Played in on offense with a lot of pre-defined reads and I think he can become hesitant when a defense takes that away and has a tendency to just hold onto the ball too long in those situations.
• All of his progressions seem to work short to long. Maybe that is just the way Lane Kiffin wanted him to play but you are going to have a hard life in the NFL if you can’t generate big chunk plays and have to be perfect dinking and dunking every drive.
• Arm strength I would only describe as adequate. I think it is probably the main reason for the downfield accuracy issues, he has to put his whole body into the throws to generate velocity and the more parts you are moving the harder it is to be accurate.
• Lack of wow. He makes the tough guy, gamer plays, but both with his arms and his legs the film lacks those wow plays that really set him apart. Makes you question his ceiling.

 

Conclusion: I think in Matt Corral you are getting a competitor who has some attributes that will allow him to have a measure of success early in his NFL career. The question marks are over the long term ceiling. I have seen the Baker Mayfield comparisons but Baker demonstrated a bigger arm and ability to make the big play at the college level – and despite that we have seen his limitations in the league. Corral can be a starter. I’m not sure he can be a star. Late 2nd round grade.

 

 

 

Malik Willis - Liberty - Redshirt Senior

Games watched: North Carolina State & Virginia Tech (2020); Ole Miss, Syracuse, Old Dominion & Campbell (2021)

 

Pros:

• Elite athlete. Genuine dual threat Quarterback who can be a weapon in the running game. Has natural feel for running the ball and his vision and ability to cut are worthy of a running back.
• Cannon arm and a nice snappy, quick, release which can look a bit slingy but is consistent and repeatable. He just snaps his wrist and the ball is gone.
• Throws the go route to the outside well, always gives his receiver a chance and if he is going to miss on it he misses long which is the right way to miss.
• Demonstrates an understanding of the need to manipulate defenders, has a nice pump fake and sells it effectively for the most part.
• There was an improvement in his ball placement from 2020 to 2021. Fewer low balls at his receivers’ feet on the 2021 tape which is encouraging and shows growth from a kid who by all reports is an excellent worker and wants to learn.
• Demonstrates a good understanding of how and where to attack cover 2 defenses and regularly exposes holes in the shell with well timed and accurate throws.

 

Cons:

• Processing speed is by far the biggest concern on Malik’s tape. He seems to have slow eyes, doesn’t make quick decisions when asked to read the entire field and while his offensive line was not good a lot of the sacks he takes are on him and because of this.
• Don’t love him against pressure even when he does see it coming. Has a tendency to just throw balls up and it cost him INTs – particularly 2 against Ole Miss and there was a third, similar, easy pick in that game that was dropped.
• Needs to sell play action and the run option better. With his mobility if he can really sell the triple option he will be very hard to defend, at times though his feet telegraph his intentions.
• Not a lot of tight window throws on his tape, particularly in the middle of the field. Might come back to processing speed. Not sure he trusts himself there to diagnose the coverages.
• Touch on shorter throws needs to be better. Lasers balls in to his receivers making for tougher catches and reducing chances of YAC.
• Where the inaccuracies appear a lot seems to stem from his elbow. Has a tendency to drop it mid release and he loses control of the ball a bit as a result. Doesn’t affect his power too much but does his control.

 

Conclusion: If Malik Willis hits he could hit big. As a runner he reminds me of a slightly smaller Cam Newton. As a passer he has all the arm talent you require and I am not super worried about accuracy. However, his processing speed must improve if he is to succeed. I think fit is going to make or break him. If he goes to a “win now” team that forces him to start early it could backfire badly. The ideal spot for Malik is where he can sit, learn from a veteran pro and work with a good staff to speed up that processing. I love the fit in Detroit to be honest sitting behind Goff and working with Mark Brunell as his QB coach. Mid 2nd round grade.

 

 

 

Carson Strong - Nevada - Redshirt Junior

Games watched: Tulane & New Mexico (2020); Fresno State, Kansas State, Boise State, California (2021)

 

Pros:

• Arm talent. Carson Strong has plenty of arm and shows it off to good effect on film. It isn’t just arm strength either, he demonstrates the best balance between power and touch in the class.
• Good footwork inside the pocket and shows a willingness to climb the pocket when the situation demands it.
• Uses the whole field. While Nevada’s Air Raid scheme doesn’t include many full field reads it does include designed throws to all levels and all areas of the field and Strong is as adept throwing over the middle as he is attacking the outside.
• Natural accuracy when he gets a clean pocket. If he can set his feet and locate his target he throws a really catchable football.
• Leadership shows through and his impressive drive at the end vs Fresno State was full of some clutch throws even if ultimately they fell short of the tie on the 2 point conversion.
• Had responsibility for setting protections and making adjustments at the line so is more advanced in that regard than some of his class mates.

 

Cons:

• Mobility. By modern NFL Quarterback standards, he is a statue. He is not going to escape NFL athletes who break through his offensive line so if you draft Strong you must build a wall in front of him.
• Not strictly a tape evaluation but the rumours on his medicals are not good. The damage to the right knee is supposedly so severe at this stage that there are teams who don’t think Strong makes a second contract.
• He is poor under pressure. I think his lack of mobility is a factor here but if the pressure comes his instinct is to avoid taking the hit and just throw the ball up for grabs. He got away with that in college at a rate he will not in the NFL.
• He is a drop back passer and only a drop back passer. The heavy play action and RPO offenses that the NFL is increasingly moving towards are not a fit for Strong’s skillset. He is kind of reminiscent of later career Big Ben but with a better arm. Everything is going to be from shotgun.
• Think he is better pre-snap than he is post-snap from a mental perspective. I’m not sure how well he actually reads the field and gets to his progressions. Seems to lock on to certain receivers and not see other open guys.
• Too many hero ball throws forced into double coverage.

 

Conclusion: I liked Carson Strong’s tape more than I expected to. He is very scheme specific, but in a spread offense with a good offensive line and good weapons I think he can be a starter. The lack of mobility is the obvious concern and if he doesn’t want to take hits then he will have to learn to throw the ball away rather than throwing it up for grabs. I’d suggest he is worth a lottery ticket on day 2 for a team with an older starter – the Colts are one to watch. 2nd / 3rd round borderline.

 

 

 

Desmond Ridder - Cincinnati - Redshirt Senior

Games watched: UCLA (2019); Tulsa & Georgia (2020); Alabama, Norte Dame, Tulane, Navy, Houston (2021)

 

Pros:

• Ridder has prototypical size and while he doesn’t have a huge arm he has enough velocity to play at the next level.
• Good athlete who can be used in the Quarterback run game which should help him be a chain mover early while he tries to develop other facets of his game.
• While the Cincinnati offense was designed to simplify reads I like how quickly Ridder appears to diagnose coverages and identify where the space might be in a defense.
• Good ball placement on the short around the line of scrimmage. Throws little screens, swing passes and wheel routes well and with an opportunity for his receivers to generate yards after the catch.
• Experience operating under center and sells the play action and RPO game well. When he does catch a linebacker or a defensive back cheating up to play the run he demonstrates impressive touch to drop the ball into his guys at the second level.
• Competitive leader who has been a winner at the college level.

 

Cons:

• His accuracy is inconsistent and it isn’t even consistent in its inconsistency. In the space of three throws he can drop one right in the bucket, overthrow one by 10 yards and then horribly underthrow on that turns into an opportunity for a pick.
• He is particularly bad on out routes where he seems to miss frequently and the ball gets away from him.
• Too often confused by the blitz, and he was simply overmatched in the College Playoff Semi Final when Alabama sent an extra guy repeatedly and Ridder couldn’t diagnose who was coming.
• 36 career fumbles. Too often holds the ball away from his body carelessly.
• Noticeably struggles in the redzone when the windows get tighter and the passes require greater precision.
• Others disagree on this but I don’t see a huge amount of improvement on the film. To me is a similar player now to the guy who started in 2019. The flaws in his game are the same ones now that they were then even if he is a little more efficient in spite of them.

 

Conclusion: I don’t think Desmond Ridder has the accuracy to be a long-term NFL starter. I can see him getting a shot somewhere at some point, and he might eventually prove to be a bridge level Quarterback who can move the ball as a dual threat guy despite his limitations, but I think fundamentally he just misses too many throws that you have to make to have a team commit to you as “the guy”. 3rd / 4th round borderline.

 

 

 

Kenny Pickett - Pittsburgh - Redshirt Senior

Games watched: Louisville (2020); Tennessee, Clemson, Miami, Duke, North Carolina (2021)

 

Pros:

• Comes with significant college experience and that shows itself best in his ability to get through progressions which is the main area where his game has stepped up a level. His understanding of how to attack defenses is impressive.
• Challenges tight windows and while you wouldn’t describe his arm as a cannon it is plenty strong enough to fit the ball where it needs to be.
• Love his willingness to attack the middle of the field. He has no qualms about taking a throw over the middle where he needs to fit the ball between linebackers and safeties and generally does so with good accuracy.
• Has excellent ball placement on back shoulder throws to the outside.
• Good athlete who probably hasn’t got the credit he deserves as a runner. He isn’t going to be a guy you design a lot of Quarterback keepers for, but he will punish teams who ignore his scrambling ability.
• A leader who really played well in tight ball games in 2021 and came through in the clutch.

 

Cons:

• The jump in 2021 was meteoric and the 2020 film, frankly, is day 3 tape. The big area where you see a jump is in his decisiveness in the pocket. In 2020 he was skittish and indecisive.
• Has a tendency to drift back in the pocket. I think this is because he doesn’t like pressure in his face but at times he ends up way too far back behind the line of scrimmage and against top tier bendy pass rushers they will find a way to turn the corner and get to him. Has to get better at stepping up.
• Concerning number of tips and batted balls on his film and to me pocket depth is a factor in that.
• Struggles when flushed out of the pocket to the left. To the right he keeps his eyes down field and looks to throw, but to his left he drops his eyes and becomes just a runner.
• Has a tendency to miss low and behind and when he gets out of rhythm he can go through short stretches where consecutive throws get away from him.
• Doesn’t always step into his out routes. Throws them too much off his back foot and as such it sometimes looks like he lacks arm and the ball floats on them. It is not an arm strength issue. It’s a footwork issue.

 

Conclusion: Kenny Pickett is an older Quarterback prospect who has really benefitted from the extra development time in college. I think you are getting a reasonable floor here and I would not be surprised to see him look like a capable starter early in his NFL career. But I’m not sure where the ceiling is for him. He is a distributor rather than a playmaker and the technical flaws will need tidying up for him to become a franchise Quarterback rather than simply a competent starter.  Mid to late 2nd round grade.

 

 

 

Sam Howell - North Carolina - Junior

Games watched: Duke, Boston College, Miami (2020); Florida State, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech (2021)

 

Pros:

• The first thing that stands out is Howell’s moxie and mobility. He plays to win every snap and when the passing game wasn’t getting it done in 2021 was willing to use his legs to move the offense.
• Not all of the regression in the North Carolina passing attack this past season was on him. The tape is full of dropped balls by UNC receivers. I think Howell played better than the raw numbers suggest.
• One of the better Quarterbacks in this class at diagnosing and dealing with pressure. I think he has good, quick feet inside the pocket and can evade rushers and re-establish a throwing base.
• Despite not being the most physically gifted Quarterback in this class by any means, Howell is an aggressive decision maker who attacks down the field.
• At his best when getting into a rhythm in the quick game when he can play pitch and catch, getting the ball out the pre-determined read.
• Uses play action effectively and can run the play action boot concepts that a lot of the Shanahan style NFL offenses are now incorporating because he is a solid thrower on the run.

 

Cons:

• Size. Sam is a smaller quarterback and while he is thicker in his lower body he still looks small out there and I think it can occasionally cause him issues seeing passing lanes.
• Maybe because he doesn’t always see passing lanes he has a tendency to bail clean pockets earlier than he should to take off and run when he needs to trust his protection.
• He ran for over 800 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2021, but he is not athletically talented enough to be that sort of running threat in the pro game.
• Only an average arm and a slightly windy delivery motion which occasionally leads to him being late on the throw.
• Too many of his deep balls end up underthrown and it cost him interceptions in 2021.
• At this stage he is not an advanced full field reader. His best plays come on pre-determined and/or single defender reads.

 

Conclusion: Sam Howell was thought of as a potential first rounder before the 2021 college football season but his regression and UNC’s underwhelming campaign have seen him drop rapidly down draft boards. Personally I don’t think he was as good in 2019 and 2020 as the hype and I don’t think he was as bad in 2021 as the detractors suggest. The truth is he is a smart kid who is going to compete his tail off but who has physical limitations that cap his ceiling at the next level. To me he is a guy who has the potential to stick around the NFL for a long time as a low-end starter / high end backup. I see some Case Keenum in his game. 3rd round grade.

 

 

So there you go folks. Flame away. Thoughts, comments, observations always welcome. 

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

Excellent review.  It's hard to take exception with much that you have written.  It is very consistent with what I have read and what I have seen in game action with these guys.  As always, most will be drafted above what their talent would logically support.  Here's hoping that two or three go prior to pick 25, thus dropping more talent to the Bills.

Thanks for taking the time to pull this together.

[LeGOATski]

It reminds me of the EJ Manuel draft class.

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

**** Warning Long Post ****

 

Well, here we are, ten days out from the 2022 NFL draft. As such it is time for me to go on record with my thoughts on the Quarterbacks I have watched in this class. I know these threads are generally (and thankfully) of less interest to a lot of Bills fans these days because we have our Quarterback. However, I've still watched the film so might as well share my thoughts. I have watched what I think are pretty much the consensus "top 6" Quarterbacks in this class. I will start by saying I think that the general buzz on this not being a great Quarterback group is correct.

 

So there you go folks. Flame away. Thoughts, comments, observations always welcome. 

 

Would you consider this the ... or at least one of the ... worst QB draft class, ever?

[TBBills]

QB? 

[Fan in Chicago]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

**** Warning Long Post ****

 

 

 

 

So there you go folks. Flame away. Thoughts, comments, observations always welcome. 

Stellar work as always. You do not have a single QB with a 1st round grade but in another thread you noted that QBs do get over-drafted (not your words) and that is okay. 

Given your analysis can you make a prediction on the order of where they will be picked and will they all be picked in the 1st round?

Edited April 18, 2022 by Fan in Chicago

[The Jokeman]

17 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

It reminds me of the EJ Manuel draft class.

and comments the Panthers are making remind me of Buddy Nix the year we took Manuel. 

[Coach Tuesday]

Pickett sounds like Andy Dalton, Howell sounds like Mayfield.

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Thanks for the work OP, enjoyed the read, very informative. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I like Carson Strong. Pleased to see you liked his tape more than you expected. It’s just a shame he is about as mobile as Drew Bledsoe. But he seems a gritty competitor to me that can make all the the throws. If he can prove that the jump balls he threw in college were more talent and then luck he might have a chance.

[Coach Tuesday]

14 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I like Carson Strong. Pleased to see you liked his tape more than you expected. It’s just a shame he is about as mobile as Drew Bledsoe. But he seems a gritty competitor to me that can make all the the throws. If he can prove that the jump balls he threw in college were more talent and then luck he might have a chance.

 

He sounds like the kind of guy Arians would take in Round 2 and try to develop.

[CapeBreton]

Great post, I agree with those grades but it’s crazy to think maybe 4 of those guys could go in the first round. If I was Detroit or Pittsburgh I’d just wait for the QB crop next year and get someone likely much better. 

[GunnerBill]

40 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Pickett sounds like Andy Dalton, Howell sounds like Mayfield.

 

I have seen the Dalton comparison before, yea. That makes sense to me. There is some Mayfield to Howell, but Baker had a better arm, a more developed sense of progressions and was a better college player. But yea, Howell and Corral both have a Mayfield esque quality to them.

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

 

Would you consider this the ... or at least one of the ... worst QB draft class, ever?

 

It is the worst one I have looked at in terms of top end guys, definitely. 2014 was my first year trying to grade players so I don't have grades from 2013 I can go back to.

[msw2112]

I have not seen him play, but based on the write-up, I wonder how Carson Strong would comp to Phillip Rivers?

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Stellar work as always. You do not have a single QB with a 1st round grade but in another thread you noted that QBs do get over-drafted (not your words) and that is okay. 

Given your analysis can you make a prediction on the order of where they will be picked and will they all be picked in the 1st round?

 

Ha. I think it will be 2 or 3 in round 1. That is my prediction. It depends which teams as to who goes where.

 

3 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

I have not seen him play, but based on the write-up, I wonder how Carson Strong would comp to Phillip Rivers?

 

Yea I have heard that as well. To me as I say in the write up he is more late Big Ben with a better arm. It is all going to have to be shotgun, spread formation, lot of pitch and catch. 

Edited April 18, 2022 by GunnerBill

[BigAl2526]

Not a good year if you need a great QB.  Every one has significant bust potential.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, BigAl2526 said:

Not a good year if you need a great QB.  Every one has significant bust potential.

 

And I think only 1 has "great" potential. If you told me in 5 years there would be three serviceable QBs from this class I would not be stunned. But if you told me there were two top 10 type QBs from this class I would be.

[Mojo44]

Excellent analysis and thank you OP. It does seem like a relatively weak quarterback draft this time around. But I agree, at least two and probably three will be taken in the first round. I think Willis and Pickett will go in the first for opposite reasons. 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Mojo44 said:

Excellent analysis and thank you OP. It does seem like a relatively weak quarterback draft this time around. But I agree, at least two and probably three will be taken in the first round. I think Willis and Pickett will go in the first for opposite reasons. 

 

Yep. Willis for his ceiling. Pickett for his floor.

[Bill from NYC]

Imagine where these QBs would have landed in the 2021 draft?

 

90% of this board thinks that Mac Jones sucks and he is 5x better than any of those listed here.