TSW Mock Draft 2.0 - Completed!

[Bill from NYC]

24 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

I expect those WR and DB's to be gone in the next 5-10 picks

Ah, you got me. I have my heart set on drafting a corner.

[NewEra]

11 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

Huh?

My threshold is lower than yours.  Ignore me

[Virgil]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

My threshold is lower than yours.  Ignore me

 

He only has an hour to make his pick.  We already dropped it from 4 to 3.  I'm surprised honestly, because he was posting like crazy earlier

[NewEra]

Just now, Virgil said:

 

He only has an hour to make his pick.  We already dropped it from 4 to 3.  I'm surprised honestly, because he was posting like crazy earlier

Part of my point.  

[mannc]

27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He wouldn't have to. Lions have #32. 

OK, I could see that, but what are the Lions going to offer?  32 and 34 for 25 and 57?  I could see Beane doing that, but who would the Lions want to move up for at that point?

Edited April 19, 2022 by mannc

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

OK, I could see that, but what are the Lions going to offer?  32 and 34 for 25 and 57?  I could see Beane doing that, but who would the Lions want to move up for at that point?

A qb that will have a 5th year option.  The best value of all 5th year options by a mile. 
 

I’m not saying there’s a qb worthy of it, but if the lions feel someone is….it’s a no brainer 

[Virgil]

4 minutes ago, mannc said:

OK, I could see that, but what are the Lions going to offer?  32 and 34 for 25 and 57?  I could see Beane doing that, but who would the Lions want to move up for at that point?

 

I would be all over it

[GunnerBill]

 

6 minutes ago, mannc said:

OK, I could see that, but what are the Lions going to offer?  32 and 34 for 25 and 57?  I could see Beane doing that, but who would the Lions want to move up for at that point?

 

Quite. I don't know who the QB you are moving up for at that point is. Matt Corral maybe? Is he a guy you care that much about having that you are willing to make that jump? 

 

I am not sold. If the Lions decide they want a QB out of this draft they will take Malik Willis at #2 IMO. 

 

EDIT: because the Lions don't need a guy who can just play competent football. They have that in Goff. They need a QB who can be a difference maker and be "the guy" long term. That to me says you take Willis or you wait until next year. Taking the 3rd or 4th guy out of a weak class doesn't move the needle. 

Edited April 19, 2022 by GunnerBill

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

Quite. I don't know who the QB you are moving up for at that point is. Matt Corral maybe? Is he a guy you care that much about having that you are willing to make that jump? 

 

I am not sold. If the Lions decide they want a QB out of this draft they will take Malik Willis at #2 IMO. 

 

EDIT: because the Lions don't need a guy who can just play competent football. They have that in Goff. They need a QB who can be a difference maker and be "the guy" long term. That to me says you take Willis or you wait until next year. Taking the 3rd or 4th guy out of a weak class doesn't move the needle. 

Exactly.  If there's a QB they like enough to move up for, they'd likely just take him at 2.

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

Quite. I don't know who the QB you are moving up for at that point is. Matt Corral maybe? Is he a guy you care that much about having that you are willing to make that jump? 

 

I am not sold. If the Lions decide they want a QB out of this draft they will take Malik Willis at #2 IMO. 

 

EDIT: because the Lions don't need a guy who can just play competent football. They have that in Goff. They need a QB who can be a difference maker and be "the guy" long term. That to me says you take Willis or you wait until next year. Taking the 3rd or 4th guy out of a weak class doesn't move the needle. 

That’s it they have Willis as the #1 QB.  They may have a 2nd round grade on a handful of QBs with Willis rated behind others.  If they have Corral, Pickett, Howell or Ridder rated above Willis it makes sense to not reach, take the BPA and either roll the dice that they fall to them @ 32 or to trade up for them.  

 

the chargers took LT #5 overall and then draft Brees @ 32.  They didn’t use #5 on brees because they didn’t think he was worth that draft section.  They rolled the dice and got both.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, NewEra said:

That’s it they have Willis as the #1 QB.  They may have a 2nd round grade on a handful of QBs with Willis rated behind others.  If they have Corral, Pickett, Howell or Ridder rated above Willis it makes sense to not reach, take the BPA and either roll the dice that they fall to them @ 32 or to trade up for them.  

 

the chargers took LT #5 overall and then draft Brees @ 32.  They didn’t use #5 on brees because they didn’t think he was worth that draft section.  They rolled the dice and got both.  

 

 

 

I don't think the Lions are going to take a Quarterback just to take a Quarterback. They have a guy who can play. They are only taking a guy who they think can be THE guy for me. 

[NewEra]

7 minutes ago, mannc said:

Exactly.  If there's a QB they like enough to move up for, they'd likely just take him at 2.

I don’t agree with this.  Just because team team views a QB worthy of their 2nd round pick, that doesn’t mean they also think they’re worth the 2nd overall pick. That line of thinking pretty much eliminates any QB from ever being selected in rd 2 or in a trade up.  
 

it’s not a black and white matter.  There is a lot of grey area in between.  
 

the bengals took AJ green #5, then Dalton in rd 2.

 

the niners took aldon smith #7, then took kap rd 2.  
 

why?  Because they didn’t think the qb was worthy of a top 10 pick…..

[Virgil]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think the Lions are going to take a Quarterback just to take a Quarterback. They have a guy who can play. They are only taking a guy who they think can be THE guy for me. 

 

I agree, but if I'm that close to the 1st round and can get the 5th year option, and I think someone might take the next guy in the 7 spots ahead of me...

 

A lot of "ifs", but it wouldn't be a big leap or price to pay

 

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think the Lions are going to take a Quarterback just to take a Quarterback. They have a guy who can play. They are only taking a guy who they think can be THE guy for me. 

I agree…..but that’s not the point.  
 

It’s very possible to like a qb enough to bypass them in rd 1 and hope to get them later in the draft.  Happens every year.  

 

[mannc]

8 minutes ago, NewEra said:

That’s it they have Willis as the #1 QB.  They may have a 2nd round grade on a handful of QBs with Willis rated behind others.  If they have Corral, Pickett, Howell or Ridder rated above Willis it makes sense to not reach, take the BPA and either roll the dice that they fall to them @ 32 or to trade up for them.  

 

the chargers took LT #5 overall and then draft Brees @ 32.  They didn’t use #5 on brees because they didn’t think he was worth that draft section.  They rolled the dice and got both.  

 

 

And, to use a more nauseating example, in 2004, ol' Whitey used pick 13 on Lee Evans, then traded up to 22 for the uber-talented JP Losman. 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I don’t agree with this.  Just because team team views a QB worthy of their 2nd round pick, that doesn’t mean they also think they’re worth the 2nd overall pick. That line of thinking pretty much eliminates any QB from ever being selected in rd 2 or in a trade up.  
 

it’s not a black and white matter.  There is a lot of grey area in between.  
 

the bengals took AJ green #5, then Dalton in rd 2.

 

the niners took aldon smith #7, then took kap rd 2.  
 

why?  Because they didn’t think the qb was worthy of a top 10 pick…..

 

The difference with Cincy is they knew Palmer was likely gone. They needed a guy who was competent to play in that eventuality. The Lions already have that.

 

The 49ers comp is closer because they had a guy in Smith who was competent and could play. They were taking a swing for the fences with Kap. They were in a different place in their build though I think. 

[Virgil]

I will be making the Chargers pick at 1:20p if not already made

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, mannc said:

And, to use a more nauseating example, in 2004, ol' Whitey used pick 13 on Lee Evans, then traded up to 22 for the uber-talented JP Losman. 

For sure.  The worst…..

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I will be making the Chargers pick at 1:20p if not already made

 

Well he told you the three players he was choosing between.

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The difference with Cincy is they knew Palmer was likely gone. They needed a guy who was competent to play in that eventuality. The Lions already have that.

 

The 49ers comp is closer because they had a guy in Smith who was competent and could play. They were taking a swing for the fences with Kap. They were in a different place in their build though I think. 

I mean, it’s tough to have the same exact situation as another team….but I think that we can agree that it would be a stupid move to draft a Qb @ 2 overall if you have a 2nd round grade on them.  You don’t have a 1st rd grade on any of these guys…..if you were the lions GM (and you had a handful of guys with 2nd rd grades, like you do) would you take any of these guys @ 2?