Listening to Greg Cosell today about 2022 draft class WRs

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I agree with you if your overall point is that one great game against KC does not show Davis is ready to step into the #2 WR role all season (just as one great game against NE doesn't show that McKenzie is ready to be the primary slot all season)

 

I'm a little unclear as to what you're seeing as a "sophomore slump" though.  What I see is that Davis lost snaps early in the season to Sanders, once Daboll figured out that he wasn't gonna be able to run 4 and 5 WR sets successfully after the Pittsburgh debacle.   They weren't paying Sanders $6M/ season to sit on the bench.

 

Once Davis got significant snaps in week 9 then week 14 on, he contributed about the same or better.  Overall his targets, receptions, yards, r/g, y/g are very similar - his y/r was down, but that was mostly YBC, his YAC were higher.    Yes, the drop against Jax this year was bad - so was the drop in the Bal playoff game last year.

 

Basically my take is that he contributed more in 2021 on a per-snap basis to generate similar numbers - he had 73% of the offensive snaps 2020 but only 51% this season.

 

He's not a 1-game wonder - he's had about 6 really great games.  But with a catch % of 56% and the r/g and ypg he has contributed, if that's our #2 WR....ouchie

 

 

I know that if I accused the team of playing the lesser player in Sanders only because he was making more money than the better player Davis..........you would ask me for a link/proof. 

 

So we have to make the assumption that he actually wasn't outplaying Sanders..........whether that be because of the recurring foot/ankle issues or just not practicing well or because of distractions caused by having different vax protocols...........whatever it was.........he wasn't getting it done in practice and subsequently was not getting the snaps.

 

As for the 6 "really great" games..........you have a really low bar for "really great".

 

He only has two 100 yard games in 32 regular season contests.........and those were relative outliers..........and "barely" 100.........105 versus the Jets this year and the other one was 107 yards in the blowout finale against Miami in 2020.

 

For perspective.........Robert Foster had three 100 yards games AND a 94 yard game in 2018 for the Bills.

 

Foster's 4th highest total that season.......94 yards.........would be Davis' 3rd highest career regular season game total.

 

And in the playoffs Davis has his great game against KC and in the other 4 games he averaged.........wait for it........35 yards. 

 

So he has one 200+ yard game.........and the other 36 games of his NFL career he's averaged 35 yards per game.

 

So while I think he's shown a lot of promise and I didn't say he was a 1-game wonder...........you put those words in my mouth..........he actually kinda' is a 1 game wonder statistically.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

37 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

I respect everyone who analyzes the numbers and puts things in numerical perspective. I’m a guy who looks at the player and has gut reactions. I know that’s not something that is empirically defensible, but I go by my feel, and I’m often enough wrong.  🤷‍♂️

 

I see Gabe Davis as a guy who gets it done and makes great plays. I saw Knox the same way, even when things seemed questionable. They had gaps in their play as young guys, but they are playmakers. I consider the entire season, including the record setting playoff performance, and I thought Gabe had one helluva year. 

 

I think that's a fair perspective and points out the different perspectives people can have looking at the same player.

 

Before last season, I was strongly in favor of us upgrading at TE because I would have said the same thing about Dawson Knox - that he was going into his 3rd season and had some amazing plays and strong games, but had yet to prove he could get it done consistently as a blocking and as a receiving TE

 

Just as I wanted to see Knox succeed and break out, and want to see him keep it up or improve on it this season, I would love to see Gabe Davis prove he's a top-quality NFL WR.

[Motor26]

52 minutes ago, Iverwig said:

Prior to this year I would agree about is work ethic but he changed that based on working to get back from his ACL injury.  With that said as a lifelong Dawgs fan and having watched Pickens since his first year I would be SHOCKED if Buffalo drafted him.  As you mentioned he doesn't fit the Bills culturally.  He has shown a pattern to be immature.  The kid has all the talent in the world but can be very immature.  IF he ever matures he will be very good in the NFL it just won't be in Buffalo.

This whole culture thing is a bothersome argument. If he is the highest player on their board, they need to take him. He’s just a kid, and if they believe their culture is that strong, they should have no problem integrating an immature kid and having him be successful in Buffalo. I don’t care if the Bills players are choir boys or even nice guys, I want guys who help them win football games. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I know that if I accused the team of playing the lesser player in Sanders only because he was making more money than the better player Davis..........you would ask me for a link/proof. 

 

Just to be clear on what I was saying:  I am NOT saying that the team was playing "the lesser player" or that they were playing Sanders "only because he was making more money than Davis".   So you're correct, but that's rather a red herring.

 

There's cause and effect here: the Bills were playing Sanders because they perceived him to be the better player at the beginning of the season, and he was ahead of Davis on the depth chart in their eyes.  The Bills paid Sanders $6M because of that perception.

 

Oh and stats say actually per game, Sanders was a bit better.  More receptions, more yards per game.

 

 

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

So we have to make the assumption that he actually wasn't outplaying Sanders..........whether that be because of the recurring foot/ankle issues or just not practicing well or because of distractions caused by having different vax protocols...........whatever it was.........he wasn't getting it done in practice and subsequently was not getting the snaps.

 

Agreed, although I think there's the point that coaches seem to require a higher bar in practice to unseat a veteran who is higher on the depth chart after preseason.  The assumption is that the vet will save himself then "turn it up" on Sunday.   So we, and the coaches, really can't tell if the guy who is lower on the chart is "outplaying" or could outplay the starter, because they don't do the experiment barring injury or outright suckage.

 

 

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

As for the 6 "really great" games..........you have a really low bar for "really great".

He only has two 100 yard games in 32 regular season contests.........and those were relative outliers..........and "barely" 100.........105 versus the Jets this year and the other one was 107 yards in the blowout finale against Miami in 2020.

 

OK, tell me how you define a really great game for a #2 WR?

 

The top 15 receivers in this league - the #1s - averaged over  70 yds per game.  So I figure if the #2 guy is bringing in more than 70 yds a game, that's a pretty good game for a #2.    Davis has 8 such games in his 2 years (5 in 2020, 3 in 2021)

 

The top 5 receivers in this league averaged over 85 ypg with #6 being 80 ypg.  So I figure if the #2 guy is just off the top 5, or >80 yds/game, that's a great game for the #2.  Davis has 6 such games.

 

You can quibble about the word choice and say it's a good game or an adequate game or whatever, but the point is, the best of the #2 guys in the league are averaging 55 ypg, so significantly exceeding that is a strong showing for a #2 guy

 

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

So while I think he's shown a lot of promise and I didn't say he was a 1-game wonder...........you put those words in my mouth..........he actually kinda' is a 1 game wonder statistically.

 

I think you're incorrect on that latter, but I'd be happy to hear how you define "good game" or "great game" for the #2 WR and why.

 

I'm sorry you feel I put words in your mouth, but I neither claimed you said he was a 1-game wonder nor intended to imply that.  I was making my own point, backed up by his game logs.

 

[Big Blitz]

This is the biggest decision the Bills have to make going into this draft - is Davis not only good enough to be WR2, but in the event Diggs misses time can he then be WR1?

 

If the answer is :

 

No - You draft a WR and do all you can to get one of the guys you think can play right away.  Not a developmental guy like Hodgins.  

 

Yes - 2 options here - you can wait till later to draft a value WR.  Or, if a guy you think can start and is a potential WR 1 falls to you at 25, you take him.  Get your CB in RD 2 and maybe move up in RD2 to get him.  

 

 

There appears to be a total lack of urgency or concern with the Secondary.

 

If I were to bet rn I think it's 50-50 we draft a CB at 25.  

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just to be clear on what I was saying:  I am NOT saying that the team was playing "the lesser player" or that they were playing Sanders "only because he was making more money than Davis".   So you're correct, but that's rather a red herring.

 

There's cause and effect here: the Bills were playing Sanders because they perceived him to be the better player at the beginning of the season, and he was ahead of Davis on the depth chart in their eyes.  The Bills paid Sanders $6M because of that perception.

 

Oh and stats

 

 

 

Agreed, although I think there's the point that coaches seem to require a higher bar in practice to unseat a veteran who is higher on the depth chart after preseason.  The assumption is that the vet will save himself then "turn it up" on Sunday.   So we, and the coaches, really can't tell if the guy who is lower on the chart is "outplaying" or could outplay the starter, because they don't do the experiment barring injury or outright suckage.

 

 

 

OK, tell me how you define a really great game for a #2 WR?

 

The top 15 receivers in this league - the #1s - averaged over  70 yds per game.  So I figure if the #2 guy is bringing in more than 70 yds a game, that's a pretty good game for a #2.    Davis has 8 such games in his 2 years (5 in 2020, 3 in 2021)

 

The top 5 receivers in this league averaged over 85 ypg with #6 being 80 ypg.  So I figure if the #2 guy is just off the top 5, or >80 yds/game, that's a great game for the #2.  Davis has 6 such games.

 

You can quibble about the word choice and say it's a good game or an adequate game or whatever, but the point is, the best of the #2 guys in the league are averaging 55 ypg, so significantly exceeding that is a strong showing for a #2 guy

 

 

I think you're incorrect on that latter, but I'd be happy to hear how you define "good game" or "great game" for the #2 WR and why.

 

I'm sorry you feel I put words in your mouth, but I neither claimed you said he was a 1-game wonder nor intended to imply that.  I was making my own point, backed up by his game logs.

 

 

Yeah.......to me just 6 games out of 37..........16% of games played............with over 80 yards receiving..........and most nowhere near that......... just isn't anymore convincing than pointing out that he's averaged 35 yards per game in the regular season.

 

It's assumed that receivers will have some notably above average games...........which is what 80 yards represents..........not "greatness"........but definitely an above average game.

 

If Davis has no real competition for that WR2 spot..........he should be expected to produce well over 1,000 yards with Josh Allen as his QB.........just as he and John Brown combined for 1048 in 2020............and as he and Sanders combined for 1172 in 2021.

 

But the real objective should be to be on par with Tee Higgins........Cinci's #2...........who put up 78 yards per game last year and around 1100 yards.    

 

Almost double the yardage of Gabe Davis despite Davis (571) playing 80% of the snaps Higgins did(710).

 

That's what a clear #2 in an offense with Josh Allen should probably put up...........which is a WHOLE LOT more than the 55 yards per game figure you think represents what the best WR2 can average.

 

But whether what we expect to see from WR2 is just 55 yards per game or 80 yards per game.............the fact remains that 35 is what he averaged for his first 36 games in the NFL.........and that wouldn't be even CLOSE to good enough.

 

When you look at it objectively.........it's A LOT to ask of Davis to make that big of a production jump without giving him some significant competition.............which Jake Kumerow is not.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

24 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah.......to me just 6 games out of 37..........16% of games played............with over 80 yards receiving..........and most nowhere near that......... just isn't anymore convincing than pointing out that he's averaged 35 yards per game in the regular season.

 

It's assumed that receivers will have some notably above average games...........which is what 80 yards represents..........not "greatness"........but definitely an above average game.

 

If Davis has no real competition for that WR2 spot..........he should be expected to produce well over 1,000 yards with Josh Allen as his QB.........just as he and John Brown combined for 1048 in 2020............and as he and Sanders combined for 1172 in 2021.

 

But the real objective should be to be on par with Tee Higgins........Cinci's #2...........who put up 78 yards per game last year and around 1100 yards.    

 

Almost double the yardage of Gabe Davis despite Davis (571) playing 80% of the snaps Higgins did(710).

 

That's what a clear #2 in an offense with Josh Allen should probably put up...........which is a WHOLE LOT more than the 55 yards per game figure you think represents what the best WR2 can average.

 

But whether what we expect to see from WR2 is just 55 yards per game or 80 yards per game.............the fact remains that 35 is what he averaged for his first 36 games in the NFL.........and that wouldn't be even CLOSE to good enough.

 

When you look at it objectively.........it's A LOT to ask of Davis to make that big of a production jump without giving him some significant competition.............which Jake Kumerow is not.

 

 

I think the bottom line is we agree far more than we disagree here - it would be great if Gabe Davis can take a step and become that #2, but to date he hasn't proven he can do that over a 17 game season, and it would behoove the Bills to bring in some real talent at WR to develop and compete.

 

I would point out that I'm not going off what "I think" a #2 WR can average but actual receiving data, I'm not gonna go point by point through the rest though

[starrymessenger]

3 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

This is the biggest decision the Bills have to make going into this draft - is Davis not only good enough to be WR2, but in the event Diggs misses time can he then be WR1?

 

If the answer is :

 

No - You draft a WR and do all you can to get one of the guys you think can play right away.  Not a developmental guy like Hodgins.  

 

Yes - 2 options here - you can wait till later to draft a value WR.  Or, if a guy you think can start and is a potential WR 1 falls to you at 25, you take him.  Get your CB in RD 2 and maybe move up in RD2 to get him.  

 

 

There appears to be a total lack of urgency or concern with the Secondary.

 

If I were to bet rn I think it's 50-50 we draft a CB at 25.  

JMO but I think it’s more likely than not we draft a CB at 25.

[freddyjj]

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

He's not a 1-game wonder - he's had about 6 really great games.  But with a catch % of 56% and the r/g and ypg he has contributed, if that's our #2 WR....ouchie

The catch rate is actually completion rate when targeted.  Davis has A 6% drop rate over 2 seasons.  The completion rate when targeted is actually not bad given average air yards when targeted.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, freddyjj said:

The catch rate is actually completion rate when targeted.

 

Yes, that's what catch % is - receptions/targets.  So there will be some "throw aways" that are in there, but that is true for all WR. 

And against all WR, that's pretty freakin' bad. 

 

I pulled out the top 100 WR at pro-football-reference and sorted them by catch %.  Davis was 91.

 

If you sort by yards per target, he's 30th.  Only 6 of the WR with higher y/target have catch % under 60%, and all of them are higher than Davis (58% or 59%).  The only one that's comparable is Van Jeffferson (56%)

 

So objectively, that 55% catch % is not very good, even when adjusted for WR with high yards per target.

 

2 hours ago, freddyjj said:

  Davis has A 6% drop rate over 2 seasons.  The completion rate when targeted is actually not bad given average air yards when targeted.  

 

I'd need to see the data you're using to reach that conclusion because it's not consistent with mine

 

Again, if we pull out the top 100 WR (not RBs, not TEs) and look at drop rate, Davis drop rate of 7.9% last season is...91.  If we sort by average depth of target (air yards when targeted), we see he indeed was used as a deep  ball guy, 13.3 ADOT and he's 12th out of the top 100 WR.....and every WR above him has a lower drop %, usually much lower - only Van Jefferson (6.7%) is close.  If we pull out the top 40 WR for ADOT and sort by drop %, Davis is 38 out of 40.

 

I like Davis, I'm not trying to dunk on the guy, but let's not pretend that his catch % and his drop % don't need improvement for him to become a consistent #2.  They're objectively not good, even looking at comparable groups (WR only, no TE or RB) and limiting the comparison further to the deep ball guys.

 

My bottom line for Davis is similar to my bottom line for Knox after his second season.  You can clearly see great potential there, you can see plays and even games where (to me) he has a great game.  Then there are games where he disappears or even has negative impact (is targeted 14 times and only catches 3; drops catchable balls at key points).

 

That's not good enough for our #2 guy.

[freddyjj]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yes, that's what catch % is - receptions/targets.  So there will be some "throw aways" that are in there, but that is true for all WR. 

And against all WR, that's pretty freakin' bad. 

 

I pulled out the top 100 WR at pro-football-reference and sorted them by catch %.  Davis was 91.

 

If you sort by yards per target, he's 30th.  Only 6 of the WR with higher y/target have catch % under 60%, and all of them are higher than Davis (58% or 59%).  The only one that's comparable is Van Jeffferson (56%)

 

So objectively, that 55% catch % is not very good, even when adjusted for WR with high yards per target.

 

 

I'd need to see the data you're using to reach that conclusion because it's not consistent with mine

 

Again, if we pull out the top 100 WR (not RBs, not TEs) and look at drop rate, Davis drop rate of 7.9% last season is...91.  If we sort by average depth of target (air yards when targeted), we see he indeed was used as a deep  ball guy, 13.3 ADOT and he's 12th out of the top 100 WR.....and every WR above him has a lower drop %, usually much lower - only Van Jefferson (6.7%) is close.  If we pull out the top 40 WR for ADOT and sort by drop %, Davis is 38 out of 40.

 

I like Davis, I'm not trying to dunk on the guy, but let's not pretend that his catch % and his drop % don't need improvement for him to become a consistent #2.  They're objectively not good, even looking at comparable groups (WR only, no TE or RB) and limiting the comparison further to the deep ball guys.

 

My bottom line for Davis is similar to my bottom line for Knox after his second season.  You can clearly see great potential there, you can see plays and even games where (to me) he has a great game.  Then there are games where he disappears or even has negative impact (is targeted 14 times and only catches 3; drops catchable balls at key points).

 

That's not good enough for our #2 guy.

Thanks for details here.  I used pro football reference site too and they have Gabe Davis' career drop rate at 6.4%. 

 

Given the signing of Crowder to play the slot and Davis' blocking ability I would guess he will be the #2 WR in 2022.  Any 2022 draftee will likely trail Diggs, Davis and Crowder in targets.  I will be interested in the effect of any  increased 12 formation using Knox/Howard on WR targets in 2022.

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

When talking about Davis at the combine McD said something to the effect of “he is an example that you can develop these WRs in later rounds… not to give away draft strategy or anything”…. It is going to be CB or safety in the first.

 

Yeah that attitude is consistent with their defense heavy drafting in round 1.

 

But the fact is that it's even proven easier still to find good players for the Bills secondary from later round selections and even undrafted players.

 

The only player in the Bills WR corps.......OR their secondary..........that was drafted into the NFL before round 4 is Tre White.

 

Jamison Crowder is the highest drafted receiver on the roster (105th pick).

 

IMO they can probably anticipate adequate CB2 level play as a rookie with their 3rd pick in the 2022 draft.   It would be a bit disappointing if they couldn't find a player who could play zone behind a pass rush with the pedigree the Bills line has.    That player should be more talented than Wallace or Dane Jackson were and presumably a good fit in zone.

 

It's a strong WR draft but I wouldn't anticipate a WR2 ready player from a 3rd or 4th round WR in year 1.   Could happen,  but it's not like the secondary where 6th rounders and UDFA's have literally come in and performed well as rookie.   Bills have had no luck with WR's they've picked after round 4.

[Shake_My_Head]

Davis will be fine, IMO.     But with Josh being the centerpiece of the team, adding WR talent is always a good idea.   

 

Players get hurt, contracts get complicated, schemes evolve.   Giving the QB a steady supply of weapons is the best way to keep the Bills at/near the top.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

When talking about Davis at the combine McD said something to the effect of “he is an example that you can develop these WRs in later rounds… not to give away draft strategy or anything”…. It is going to be CB or safety in the first.

 

Wow!  Well, without giving Beane draft suggestions.....apparently Dane Jackson (7th round) and Levi Wallace (UDFA) are examples that they can develop these CB in later rounds or UDFA and apparently Micah Hyde (5th round) and Jordan Poyer (7th round) are examples they can develop these safeties in later rounds.

 

So basically we played the last 7 games of the season and went 5-2 (with an OT loss and a close game) with a secondary that was drafted 5th round at the earliest

 

2 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Thanks for details here.  I used pro football reference site too and they have Gabe Davis' career drop rate at 6.4%. 

 

That is correct, but it was 7.9% this past season

 

2 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Given the signing of Crowder to play the slot and Davis' blocking ability I would guess he will be the #2 WR in 2022.  Any 2022 draftee will likely trail Diggs, Davis and Crowder in targets.  I will be interested in the effect of any  increased 12 formation using Knox/Howard on WR targets in 2022.

 

That's how the depth chart currently stands. 

 

The point I think some of us are making is that we'd like to see an offensive investment early in the draft, both as competition for Davis in case he does not take that WR step to become the #2 WR he has not been as yet (in part for no fault of his own), and as depth.  If the WR depth chart is Diggs Davis Crowder and one or two of them get hurt then who?  Kumerow?  Hodgins?  Gentry?

[CapeBreton]

I’ve been listening to plenty of Greg Cosell lately, Tape Heads is a great podcast. Anyways, there are two guys he really does not like, Drake London and Chris Olave, and I totally agree with him. They both seem way over ranked. He just doesn’t see it with London and more or less said that Olave plays way too soft. Hopefully they’re both gone anyways when we pick at 25. 

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

On 4/16/2022 at 8:41 AM, BringBackFergy said:

I tend to think the “DK Metcalf” and “Tyreek Hill” types will convert over to the NFL game better than the “Josh Gordon” types. I like the kid from Alabama, Ohio State and the other kid from the SEC. They show good burst, escapability and quick feet. 

This.

[YoloinOhio]

On 4/15/2022 at 11:10 PM, Chicken Boo said:

 

Funny thing is, the Bills are now the type of stable franchise Pickens could thrive in. 

 

His talent isn't in question.

I’m starting to think he could go in the 1st but bills are in sweet spot to get him, and develop him

 

 

On 4/15/2022 at 1:37 PM, Paul Costa said:

Pretty sure I remember Joe Marino saying he didn’t think he was a good fit for Bills. And Marino is really connected to UGA. Process related 

Get diggs and Davis to put him under their wing 

🤔

 

[Magox]

I have been wanting Jameson Williams for a while now but it seems a near certainty he will be gone.

 

Pickens is the guy that I want.  Good speed, great size, physical run blocker and can pluck the ball out of the air with the best of them.

 

He has been a baller since day 1 and I think he will be a legitimate #1 WR in this league for years to come.

 

He very well may be available by the time the Bills pick.

 

And if either Walker or Breece Hall are available with the 2nd pick, get two more CB’s with picks 2-4.

Edited April 24, 2022 by Magox

[Einstein's Dog]

Just read the Todd McShay and Mel Kiper mock draft,  it had the Bills select Pickens at 57 (had Booth at 25).

[YoloinOhio]

7 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Just read the Todd McShay and Mel Kiper mock draft,  it had the Bills select Pickens at 57 (had Booth at 25).

I took the exact same in my mock but I think the media is just now catching up to the teams view and Pickens is rising