Listening to Greg Cosell today about 2022 draft class WRs

[buffaloboyinATL]

In Beane we Trust.

[Dr. Who]

9 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Just hope they find some decent insurance behind him in case he struggles again.

I mean, they just re-signed Bobby Hart 😈

[Motor26]

9 hours ago, NewEra said:

He’s our starting RT.  It doesn’t matter if fans are sold on him or not. 

Yes, doesn’t mean they shouldn’t bring in competition in a mid round tackle who can play guard as well. 

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, Motor26 said:

Yes, doesn’t mean they shouldn’t bring in competition in a mid round tackle who can play guard as well. 

Yes, that has nothing to do with my comment 

[BringBackFergy]

12 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

surprising answer, but fair enough. who are your top 3 wr's in this draft?

I tend to think the “DK Metcalf” and “Tyreek Hill” types will convert over to the NFL game better than the “Josh Gordon” types. I like the kid from Alabama, Ohio State and the other kid from the SEC. They show good burst, escapability and quick feet. 

[T master]

21 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I think he will be there in the 2nd

 

Would you take him at 25 if he falls to us ?

[Da webster guy]

I feel like elite QB's generally move the ball regardless of who their receivers are, and having a top offense scoring 30+pts per game and 4 proven NFL receivers on the roster in Diggs, Gabe, Mckenzie and Crowder, that drafting a WR5 in the 1st round seems misguided. 

 

This is our superbowl run season, not drafting for depth.  We need guys that can impact our games immediately, and that starts with being good enough to beat out the guy ahead of you on the depth chart in camp.  I can't help but think the clearest path to having a rookie starter is CB.  A physical, fast intelligent CB that can play zone and man, good in run support and proven against top level offenses in college. 

 

It's possible a RB could also have an instant impact as well but WR seems more like a Whaley move to me.

[HappyDays]

55 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

We need guys that can impact our games immediately, and that starts with being good enough to beat out the guy ahead of you on the depth chart in camp.

 

There are 1st round WRs we could draft that would have a very realistic chance of beating out Gabe Davis for the #2 spot. And that would keep Davis in his preferred spot as the #3 taking advantage of favorable matchups. I'm not in the WR or bust crowd but it's a reasonable position for us to take in the 1st round.

[CookieG]

20 hours ago, H2o said:

800 yds receiving as his best total for a season and a total of 3, t-h-r-e-e, 100yd games for his ENTIRE collegiate career against FCS competition. Sheer domination.  

You have to take the "dominate" comment in context.  North Dakota St. could be the truest  throwback team in college football.  To say they are "run first" is an understatement.  They ran nearly 700 times last year in 15 games, as opposed to passing about 250 times. That's only around 16 passes per game.  It works for them.

 

Watson averaged over 18 yards per catch with 800 yards in 12 games.  ND St. didn't have another receiver with 300 yards.  He yardage totals were more than the next 3 ND St. receivers combined. In essence, he WAS their passing game.

 

 

 

 

[Paul Costa]

15 hours ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

What was Pickens off the field stuff ?

Sounded like poor work ethic & attitude. Reading between the lines of Joe Marino’s statement. Said he doesn’t think the Bills would draft him because he’s not a good cultural fit. Joe has some tight connections at UGA. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

I feel like elite QB's generally move the ball regardless of who their receivers are, and having a top offense scoring 30+pts per game and 4 proven NFL receivers on the roster in Diggs, Gabe, Mckenzie and Crowder, that drafting a WR5 in the 1st round seems misguided. 

 

 

I forgot we signed Crowder. Lol. 
 

I think we will be fine at receiver. And with needs at CB, o-line, upgrade at RB#2, TE#2, LB depth I’m changing my thinking to the Bills not going WR till day 3 at the earliest. 
 

Signing Diggs long term also gives us a more clear picture that near term we will still have an elite receiver for at least the next two seasons.

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

I feel like elite QB's generally move the ball regardless of who their receivers are, and having a top offense scoring 30+pts per game and 4 proven NFL receivers on the roster in Diggs, Gabe, Mckenzie and Crowder, that drafting a WR5 in the 1st round seems misguided. 

 

This is our superbowl run season, not drafting for depth.  We need guys that can impact our games immediately, and that starts with being good enough to beat out the guy ahead of you on the depth chart in camp.  I can't help but think the clearest path to having a rookie starter is CB.  A physical, fast intelligent CB that can play zone and man, good in run support and proven against top level offenses in college. 

 

It's possible a RB could also have an instant impact as well but WR seems more like a Whaley move to me.

 

 

Of course any WR that they draft at #25 should have the potential to be an NFL WR1 by his second season.

 

And the reality is that Gabe Davis has only been a 35 yard per game receiver over his first 2 regular seasons and McKenzie and Crowder combined for just over 600 yards receiving last season. 

 

Statistically that's not a proven successful group.........that's one of the worst 2-3-4 combo's in the league based on 2021 production.

 

We can make assumptions that Davis is ready to break out but Jake Kumerow is the top backup X and Z receiver on this team.........Crowder and McKenzie are just slot receivers...........that is razor thin depth at X and Z because Kumerow STINKS.

 

But they shouldn't just draft a WR in round 1 to address a need............that pick should be the best player at a premium position.

 

Assuming they won't draft a QB........WR1/PassRusher1/LT1 are the other premium positions in the Bills O and D............CB1 is such a position in some defenses......but not inherently so in the Bills zone defense.

 

A 3rd-4th round CB could easily end up a rookie starter on a #1 ranked defense in the Bills scheme and likely be a significant athletic upgrade to Levi Wallace.

 

Not saying they won't draft another CB in round 1 to play opposite Tre White...........but the difference between a lot of first round CB's and guys that they could find on day 2 or day 3 are often traits that aren't put to much use in the Bills D.    

 

There is a misguided notion that drafting a big CB who runs a 4.4 is going to allow them to play man defense and throw a blanket on WR's like Tyreek Hill..........they aren't doing that and that 4.4 CB ain't covering a Tyreek Hill in man even if they did.  

 

 

Edited April 16, 2022 by BADOLBILZ

[mannc]

What’s Cosell’s track record for evaluating WRs?  I don’t really follow him much…

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, BUFFALOBART said:

I think that Davis was the beneficiary of lousy coverage, in the Chiefs game, and Allen took full advantage.

-Makes me question just how good this guy is going to be, in '22.

 

 

I hope he steps up and seizes the #2 role.......he could have done that last season too.........instead he had a sophomore slump. 

 

A lot of fans are just taking it for granted that he is going to be great because of that KC game..........they forget the foot/ankle injuries that recurred again in 2021........and the loss clinching drop at the end of the Jax game...........or his 3 catches on 13 targets game...........and his missing the biggest regular season game of the year in NE because he refused to get vaxxed.........it's certainly no sure thing that he becomes a star just because he had one big game.

[Shake_My_Head]

23 hours ago, Paul Costa said:

Sounded like poor work ethic & attitude. Reading between the lines of Joe Marino’s statement. Said he doesn’t think the Bills would draft him because he’s not a good cultural fit. Joe has some tight connections at UGA. 

Yes, he has some "football character" (i.e., diva) flaws that the Bills tend to avoid.  But I also think that McBeane are flexible enough to go "oft script" for certain high-talent / high value players, and Pickens in Round 2 fits that, IMO.   

[78thealltimegreat]

18 hours ago, mannc said:

What’s Cosell’s track record for evaluating WRs?  I don’t really follow him much…

He’s been the talent evaluation guy at NFL Films since the 80s…His overall evaluation is as good as anyones he’s basically the old when he talks people listen deal.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I hope he steps up and seizes the #2 role.......he could have done that last season too.........instead he had a sophomore slump. 

 

A lot of fans are just taking it for granted that he is going to be great because of that KC game..........they forget the foot/ankle injuries that recurred again in 2021........and the loss clinching drop at the end of the Jax game...........or his 3 catches on 13 targets game...........and his missing the biggest regular season game of the year in NE because he refused to get vaxxed.........it's certainly no sure thing that he becomes a star just because he had one big game.

 

I agree with you if your overall point is that one great game against KC does not show Davis is ready to step into the #2 WR role all season (just as one great game against NE doesn't show that McKenzie is ready to be the primary slot all season)

 

I'm a little unclear as to what you're seeing as a "sophomore slump" though.  What I see is that Davis lost snaps early in the season to Sanders, once Daboll figured out that he wasn't gonna be able to run 4 and 5 WR sets successfully after the Pittsburgh debacle.   They weren't paying Sanders $6M/ season to sit on the bench.

 

Once Davis got significant snaps in week 9 then week 14 on, he contributed about the same or better.  Overall his targets, receptions, yards, r/g, y/g are very similar - his y/r was down, but that was mostly YBC, his YAC were higher.    Yes, the drop against Jax this year was bad - so was the drop in the Bal playoff game last year.

 

Basically my take is that he contributed more in 2021 on a per-snap basis to generate similar numbers - he had 73% of the offensive snaps 2020 but only 51% this season.

 

He's not a 1-game wonder - he's had about 6 really great games.  But with a catch % of 56% and the r/g and ypg he has contributed, if that's our #2 WR....ouchie

[JaCrispy]

20 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I hope he steps up and seizes the #2 role.......he could have done that last season too.........instead he had a sophomore slump. 

 

A lot of fans are just taking it for granted that he is going to be great because of that KC game..........they forget the foot/ankle injuries that recurred again in 2021........and the loss clinching drop at the end of the Jax game...........or his 3 catches on 13 targets game...........and his missing the biggest regular season game of the year in NE because he refused to get vaxxed.........it's certainly no sure thing that he becomes a star just because he had one big game.

Aside from the vaxxed comment  (because it has nothing to do with Davis’ talent or skill level), your other points are valid...👍

 

 

Edited April 17, 2022 by JaCrispy

[Iverwig]

On 4/16/2022 at 3:01 PM, Paul Costa said:

Sounded like poor work ethic & attitude. Reading between the lines of Joe Marino’s statement. Said he doesn’t think the Bills would draft him because he’s not a good cultural fit. Joe has some tight connections at UGA. 

Prior to this year I would agree about is work ethic but he changed that based on working to get back from his ACL injury.  With that said as a lifelong Dawgs fan and having watched Pickens since his first year I would be SHOCKED if Buffalo drafted him.  As you mentioned he doesn't fit the Bills culturally.  He has shown a pattern to be immature.  The kid has all the talent in the world but can be very immature.  IF he ever matures he will be very good in the NFL it just won't be in Buffalo.

[Augie]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I agree with you if your overall point is that one great game against KC does not show Davis is ready to step into the #2 WR role all season (just as one great game against NE doesn't show that McKenzie is ready to be the primary slot all season)

 

I'm a little unclear as to what you're seeing as a "sophomore slump" though.  What I see is that Davis lost snaps early in the season to Sanders, once Daboll figured out that he wasn't gonna be able to run 4 and 5 WR sets successfully after the Pittsburgh debacle.   They weren't paying Sanders $6M/ season to sit on the bench.

 

Once Davis got significant snaps in week 9 then week 14 on, he contributed about the same or better.  Overall his targets, receptions, yards, r/g, y/g are very similar - his y/r was down, but that was mostly YBC, his YAC were higher.    Yes, the drop against Jax this year was bad - so was the drop in the Bal playoff game last year.

 

Basically my take is that he contributed more in 2021 on a per-snap basis to generate similar numbers - he had 73% of the offensive snaps 2020 but only 51% this season.

 

He's not a 1-game wonder - he's had about 6 really great games.  But with a catch % of 56% and the r/g and ypg he has contributed, if that's our #2 WR....ouchie

 

I respect everyone who analyzes the numbers and puts things in numerical perspective. I’m a guy who looks at the player and has gut reactions. I know that’s not something that is empirically defensible, but I go by my feel, and I’m often enough wrong.  🤷‍♂️

 

I see Gabe Davis as a guy who gets it done and makes great plays. I saw Knox the same way, even when things seemed questionable. They had gaps in their play as young guys, but they are playmakers. I consider the entire season, including the record setting playoff performance, and I thought Gabe had one helluva year.