Let's create TSW Bills draft big board - Final Conclusion: Kaiir Elam was the 5th option in TSW eyes when the Bills were picking.

[No_Matter_What]

2 hours ago, glazeduck said:

Though this is kind of a fun exercise, there's certainly some vote splitting going on here... Drake London may end up being a top 10 overall pick, and somehow he's on the outside looking in for what would ultimately be our "top 20"...

 

I know ordering by position can also be messy and isn't as much fun as players, but if we're looking at WR in the first, I have to imagine a guy like London -- even if he's not the #1 or 2 WR on our board, probably would absolutely be the priority over a guy like McDuffie or Gordon.

 

So to sum it up, based on voting in this thread I don't think that in heads up voting London beats McDuffie (90%+ certainty) or Gordon (60%).

Edited April 18, 2022 by No_Matter_What

[No_Matter_What]

Ok I am going to leave voting open until 3am ET to see if somebody reaches those 20 votes. Unless they will be major changes in voting advocating otherwise, I will then put top players with 20 votes or close to it on the board and restart voting. 

 

I will create new poll where I add 11 new players and probably lower the threshold to 15 votes (since there will be many players to spread out votes). As explained in OP, I can't add new players to existing poll unfortunately.

Edited April 18, 2022 by No_Matter_What

[RyanC883]

Its Davis time at this point

[Locomark]

I know Christian Watson has become somewhat of a fashionable pick but do people know he had one of the highest drop rates out there?(28% in 2020 and 10% in 2021)  No thanks. Too many other guys with talent to pick a high round pick with the dropsies. 

Edited April 19, 2022 by Locomark

[Big Turk]

Hooooolllly Mount Zion....

Holy Mount Zion...

 

Jah sitteth in Mount Zion...

And rules all creation...

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Locomark said:

I know Christian Watson has become somewhat of a fashionable pick but do people know he had one of the highest drop rates out there?(28% in 2020 and 10% in 2021)  No thanks. Too many other guys with talent to pick a high round pick with the dropsies. 

 

Yes. He also had the highest degree of difficulty catch rate in the guys at the top end of the class. So while he had too many drops, for sure, the drops weren't offset in % terms by cheap easy catches in and around the line of scrimmage. He wasn't used that way at all in the NDSU offense. And his hands definitely improved in 2021. Basically I think it is a concern but not as big of one as people are making it. 

[Locomark]

26 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes. He also had the highest degree of difficulty catch rate in the guys at the top end of the class. So while he had too many drops, for sure, the drops weren't offset in % terms by cheap easy catches in and around the line of scrimmage. He wasn't used that way at all in the NDSU offense. And his hands definitely improved in 2021. Basically I think it is a concern but not as big of one as people are making it. 

I bet he doesn’t get drafted until round 3 or later. No way he goes in round 1. What happens when the speed is faster and the balls are coming that much faster. At that level you need to catch everything that touches you. He was also playing against much poorer competition than the other guys you compare him too. No one outside of random Bills fans are talking about this guy up as a first rounder. See the Zierlein review of him on nfl.com I think it is very fair. He will become an average NFL WR in a few years. Certainly not worthy of a high pick.  

Edited April 19, 2022 by Locomark

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, Locomark said:

I bet he doesn’t get drafted until round 3 or later. No way he goes in round 1. What happens when the speed is faster and the balls are coming that much faster. At that level you need to catch everything that touches you. He was also playing against much poorer competition than the other guys you compare him too. No one outside of random Bills fans are talking about this guy up as a first rounder. See the Zierlein review of him on nfl.com I think it is very fair. He will become an average NFL WR in a few years. Certainly not worthy of a high pick.  

 

He is going inside the top 45 picks. 

[No_Matter_What]

Good morning. I put Jordan Davis (19 votes) and Drake London (16 votes) on the board. Since we have already chosen 12 players, I thought it was time to add new. However, since you can have only 20 options in one poll question, I had to completely restart the poll with a new question. I also lowered number of required votes to 15.

 

Players on poll are coming from consensus big board created by me (ESPN, PFF, Tankathon, PFN, Athletic) and include all best remaining slightly favored towards our needs plus adjusted based on discussions on these forums.

 

If you think someone really important was omitted please let me know and I might replace him. Please also suggest who should be replaced. I think there are too much DEs for our taste but not sure who should I skip. Also, I don't think Wyatt has any chance to be on the Bills board due to off-field issues but I decided to let people decide if he is worth.

 

[DJB]

Johan Dotson over Burks is a farce

[T master]

None of them unless these 2 guys weren't on the board Quay Walker or George Picket are my picks for the Bills .

[No_Matter_What]

29 minutes ago, T master said:

None of them unless these 2 guys weren't on the board Quay Walker or George Picket are my picks for the Bills .

I was strongly considering both of them. Problem with both is that they are a little lower on "consensus" board, and Pickens in addition is also 5th WR (and I wanted to avoid splitting of WR votes).

 

But as I said I am ready to include them (or other preffered players) later today instead of some DE or S with zero votes. I'll let you know.

Edited April 19, 2022 by No_Matter_What

[GunnerBill]

The highest player on my board among those is Ojabo. I get there is an injury question mark but in the absence of medical reports suggesting he won't recover he would be next guy here. 

[No_Matter_What]

52 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

The highest player on my board among those is Ojabo. I get there is an injury question mark but in the absence of medical reports suggesting he won't recover he would be next guy here. 

What do you think about other three rushers? Is any of them really bad fit for the Bills?

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

What do you think about other three rushers? Is any of them really bad fit for the Bills?

 

Karlaftis reminds me of what we thought we were drafting in Epenesa. But then we told Epenesa to totally change his body and his game, so I'm not sure how natural a fit he is. 

 

Boye Mafe and Arnold Ebikete are boom or bust prospects, but they are something we lack among the young guys - pure speed rushers. So I could see that there is at least a conceptual need (even if defensive end is a relatively well stocked position) I prefer Mafe of the two.

[No_Matter_What]

Btw this vote is very close to the worst case scenario for the Bills if we stay put.

 

He have chosen 12 players + 10 top ranked + maybe 2 QBs taken = 24 total, so if everything goes as bad as possible these are the choices we might face.

 

Couple weeks ago it seemed realistic that Karlaftis or Wyatt might be gone and push some other players to us, but Wyatt might be off some boards due to off-field issues and Karlaftis seems to fall down the boards a lot.

 

On the other hand, we can be sure that there will be some random picks ahead of us, there are always some - like Leatherwood, Davis, Ettiene or Turner last year. And there is still a chance that more than 2 QBs go before our pick.

[GreggTX]

Kyler Gordon

[No_Matter_What]

25 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

Kyler Gordon

He is already on the board, see OP. Means if we had a chance, we take him before all these players (what I understand you suggest).

Edited April 19, 2022 by No_Matter_What

[Rochesterfan]

On 4/14/2022 at 5:11 PM, No_Matter_What said:

EDIT: Since we have already chosen 12 players, I thought it was time to add new. However, since you can have only 20 options in one poll question, I had to completely restart the poll with new question. I also lowered number of required votes to 15.

 

The goal of this thread is to create Bills fans draft big board, i.e. an order (board) from players who could be available for our first round pick. 

 

Rules are simple. As soon as a player gets 15 votes he gets on the big board below and is removed from the poll. People who voted for chosen player can vote again. I will add more players as we will proceed.

 

I didn’t include top 10 players who have close to zero chance to get to our pick – Evan Neal, Ikem Ekwonu, Charles Cross, Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Travon Walker, Jermaine Johnson, Ahmad Gardner, Derek Stingley and Kyle Hamilton. We might not have a chance on couple more players but this is where I decided to draw a line. I also didn’t include any QBs from obvious reasons.

 

Board - players already selected in our voting:

1. Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

2. Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State 

3. Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson

4. Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

5. Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

6. Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

7. Daxton Hill, S, Michigan

8. Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

9. Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington

10. Zion Johnson, OG, Boston College

11. Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia

12. Drake London, WR, USC

13.

14.

15.

 

I think we have totally lost the point of the original.  Of the guys left - including some of the guys already picked - none should be in play at 25.

 

You have got the 10 guys that might get picked, but picks 11 and 12 and the remaining picks are what is left - the Bills need to be moving out.  Because you eliminated the top 10 and are missing the QBs - we are dropping into guys that are not worthy - hence having to drop you requirements - these are not guys we are really considering.

[BillsShredder83]

At what point do we start considering Karlaftis? He's certainly at the very top of BPAs left at this point.

I get we dropped 2 picks there last year, but BPA at a premier position... I don't think Beane would think twice about pulling the trigger if he's BPA.