Joe Marino: Would Bills Start Season with 2nd and 3rd round rookies starting at CB? McBeane Did It Before.

[Mattymafia]

I think we are all overlooking the possibility that the Bills like Dane Jackson. He was right around Levi's level, I think they're gonna surprise us and not take a corner in the first two rounds.

[BillsShredder83]

12 hours ago, Georgie said:

Not even if it is a 1st round pick?

Why would you start a rookie + Siran?

If anything rookie would start in the #2 slot until Tre is ready

[BillsShredder83]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is not a given that Taron is a Bill beyond 2022. 

He just signed a new deal. Its shorter but I doubt he goes anywhere. If we draft a CB high, he'll be on the outside not a slot guy, so hard to picture him being cut or traded before '23 season

[Big Blitz]

47 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I'm still holding out that 3 qbs get drafted before 25, causing either McDuffie or Booth to fall.

 

 

CBS mock today had McDuffie falling to us.

 

Booth went before he did.  And I'm beginning to think that's probably how they go:

 

Stingley 

Sauce

Booth 

McDuffie

Elam

 

I'd be good with any of them at 25.  

[RyanC883]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Jalen Ramsey gives up 57%. Tre White 53%. Anything below 60% is pretty darn good. Obviously you have to factor increase in competition in the NFL etc.. but if he stayed at that number he would be a very good NFL corner. 

thanks.  where do u get all this info?

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

thanks.  where do u get all this info?

 

Pro football reference has completion % given up for defensive players. 

[RyanC883]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Pro football reference has completion % given up for defensive players. 

 Thanks!!.  Did you used to be a scout or something ?   You have a ridiculous knowledge about this stuff!! 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, RyanC883 said:

 Thanks!!.  Did you used to be a scout or something ?   You have a ridiculous knowledge about this stuff!! 

 

I am just a geek. Ha. 

[RyanC883]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I am just a geek. Ha. 

Haha. You are good at it. So Pro Football reference.  Anywhere else I should look for good geek stuff??  Any good place to read on draft prospects besides PFF?

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

Haha. You are good at it. So Pro Football reference.  Anywhere else I should look for good geek stuff??  Any good place to read on draft prospects besides PFF?

 

On draft stuff The Draft Network and Draftek are the places I look during the season because they update regularly. I subscribe to Matt Miller's stuff and we occasionally DM. But really I try as far as I can to do my own research on draft stuff. The risk otherwise is you end up with everyone else's opinions and not your own.

[Alphadawg7]

On 4/14/2022 at 12:37 AM, GunnerBill said:

Bradberry actually played quite well even as a rookie. Worley was never very good and was bouncing around somewhere as a practice squad player last I heard. If memory serves I think the Panthers had some turnover at safety as well that year. So they were basically making over the entire secondary. 

 

I think the slight quandry for the Bills this time around is that there is not an excess of 2nd round type corners. It is a bit of a dead spot in the corner class. There are the 7 guys I think can start and perform well early, all of whom I guess will be gone by #57. And then there is a good stack if developmental guys that I think belong in rounds 3 and 4. So it complicates the assessment a bit. I am getting to a place where I expect the Bills to go corner at #25 and then come back for a receiver in the 2nd. Not saying that is what I'd do. But that is where I am landing on predicting what they will do.

 

I do think Woolen could be there for the Bills in the 2nd, and he honestly seems like a Beane and McD type of player, raw with incredible gifts and upside.  So if he is there in the 2nd, I think he could be the pick there.

 

CB in the first still seems the more probable scenario, but I am confident Beane won't reach for one either.  And if there isn't one atop their draft board at 25 and decide to go another direction and pass on a CB there, then it would not surprise me to see them then trade up from 57 to go get a CB they covet.  

 

One thing I know about Beane is he is pretty true to his board, and he isn't afraid to move up to get a guy he is targeting.  And I think a less costly trade up in the 2nd is more likely then a big move in the first that could cost premium picks.  

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I do think Woolen could be there for the Bills in the 2nd, and he honestly seems like a Beane and McD type of player, raw with incredible gifts and upside.  So if he is there in the 2nd, I think he could be the pick there.

 

CB in the first still seems the more probable scenario, but I am confident Beane won't reach for one either.  And if there isn't one atop their draft board at 25 and decide to go another direction and pass on a CB there, then it would not surprise me to see them then trade up from 57 to go get a CB they covet.  

 

One thing I know about Beane is he is pretty true to his board, and he isn't afraid to move up to get a guy he is targeting.  And I think a less costly trade up in the 2nd is more likely then a big move in the first that could cost premium picks.  

 

I think Woolen is still a reach in the 2nd. His tape is very, very inconsistent. Yes the measurables are there, but for me he is a 3rd rouns grade. He could be a superstar. He could also be out of the league in 3 years. It is that level of boom or bust. 

 

My take on him is Beane and co will love him. McDermott and Frazier will be more circumspect. They value smart and disciplined corners. I wouldn't apply either adjective to Woolen. 

Edited April 15, 2022 by GunnerBill

[Alphadawg7]

37 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Woolen is still a reach in the 2nd. His tape is very, very inconsistent. Yes the measurables are there, but for me he is a 3rd rouns grade. He could be a superstar. He could also be out of the league in 3 years. It is that level of boom or bust. 

 

My take on him is Beane and co will love him. McDermott and Frazier will be more circumspect. They value smart and disciplined corners. I wouldn't apply either adjective to Woolen. 

 

I personally think there is very little possibility of Woolen lasting until the third though, and even less chance he last until our pick in the 3rd.  IMHO hes going to go in the 2nd and he seems very much the kind of player Beane and McD love and would be confident in coaching up.  

 

Whether or not McD and Beane feel he can be a great player or not is the question.  If they see a future superstar in him, then I think not only would be take him in the 2nd, they might move up some to get him.  But who knows, they may also watch his tape and come away less enamored, in which case they wouldn't see him as a second round worthy pick either.  

 

But in terms of where he gets drafted, I am not sure he even lasts until our pick.

[HappyDays]

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

IMHO hes going to go in the 2nd and he seems very much the kind of player Beane and McD love and would be confident in coaching up.  

 

Not with CBs. They don't care about elite athleticism. They want length and instincts and technique. Woolen doesn't have great instincts and currently well below average technique. I'll be shocked if we draft him in the first 3 rounds.

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I personally think there is very little possibility of Woolen lasting until the third though, and even less chance he last until our pick in the 3rd.  IMHO hes going to go in the 2nd and he seems very much the kind of player Beane and McD love and would be confident in coaching up.  

 

Whether or not McD and Beane feel he can be a great player or not is the question.  If they see a future superstar in him, then I think not only would be take him in the 2nd, they might move up some to get him.  But who knows, they may also watch his tape and come away less enamored, in which case they wouldn't see him as a second round worthy pick either.  

 

But in terms of where he gets drafted, I am not sure he even lasts until our pick.

 

I think his ceiling is somewhere around the Bills 2nd pick. He is a guy I was high on way before the combine when he was being seen as a late day 3 guy. But I think the pendulum has swung too far the other way. I think he is a classic case of the RAS score overtaking the tape. I wouldn't be stunned if he went 2nd round. But I wouldn't take him there. He is too low floor. He literally could be out of the league before the end of his rookie deal if he doesn't improve with pro coaching. I get the swing for the fences argument. And the Bills do need to be willing to take some. Personally Woolen is too big a risk for me.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Not with CBs. They don't care about elite athleticism. They want length and instincts and technique. Woolen doesn't have great instincts and currently well below average technique. I'll be shocked if we draft him in the first 3 rounds.

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think his ceiling is somewhere around the Bills 2nd pick. He is a guy I was high on way before the combine when he was being seen as a late day 3 guy. But I think the pendulum has swung too far the other way. I think he is a classic case of the RAS score overtaking the tape. I wouldn't be stunned if he went 2nd round. But I wouldn't take him there. He is too low floor. He literally could be out of the league before the end of his rookie deal if he doesn't improve with pro coaching. I get the swing for the fences argument. And the Bills do need to be willing to take some. Personally Woolen is too big a risk for me.

All fair points, I get where you are both coming from.  @HappyDaysthat is a really good point I admittedly had not really considered actually, where they don’t care as much about the athletic ability specifically at the CB spot compared to that raw athleticism elsewhere.   
 

Im starting to come around to the way you’re both seeing it, you’ve made compelling points worth considering here.  And Gunner you surely have watched more of him than I have, my thought process was more on the line of how Beane has previously been attracted to athletic and potentially versatile players, even when small school or unpolished in the past.
 

But now that it was pointed out they haven’t really applied that thus far to the CB they have added over the years, which I agree with and just had not really thought about it that way previously, I can see why maybe he might not be on their radar as much as I might have thought, at least early.  
 

Ok, you’ve both changed my mind and sold me, solid work and comments gents.  

[Motor26]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Not with CBs. They don't care about elite athleticism. They want length and instincts and technique. Woolen doesn't have great instincts and currently well below average technique. I'll be shocked if we draft him in the first 3 rounds.

Definitely with the zone scheme they play they don’t need an elite guy who can lock down the other teams number 1. I like Kyler Gordon a lot, think he is definitely more athletic than his 40 time at the combine (especially with his pro day jump numbers). I think he would be a perfect fit in the Bills zone scheme, would probably require a trade up in the 2nd round. Woolen has way too much bust potential for my liking despite his insane athleticism. 

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, Motor26 said:

Definitely with the zone scheme they play they don’t need an elite guy who can lock down the other teams number 1. I like Kyler Gordon a lot, think he is definitely more athletic than his 40 time at the combine (especially with his pro day jump numbers). I think he would be a perfect fit in the Bills zone scheme, would probably require a trade up in the 2nd round. Woolen has way too much bust potential for my liking despite his insane athleticism. 

 

Just going off the scouting reports I've read on Gordon, he also appears to be more about athletic traits than instincts and technique. Not that the discrepancy is anywhere near where it is with a prospect like Woolen, but I'm still not sure McDermott would see him as a 1st round talent. This is from Lance Zierlein's scouting report on him:

 

Quote

Cornerback who comes with an elite, high-performance engine but a GPS still in the process of loading. Gordon's dynamic athletic qualities will show up in testing, but more importantly, they are all over his tape. His blend of play strength and explosive burst affects the passing game from press, off-man and zone coverages. He plays with an alpha demeanor and hitting is definitely part of his overall package. Gordon lacks polish and needs to play with better route recognition and anticipation, but if those elements click, his ball production could be near the top of the league as one of the top playmakers in the game.

 

[Aurelius]

Unless you get access to a Sauce or Stingley, I don’t see the Bills using their top pick for a CB.  It’s been discussed here already but I think they probably nab a stud WR or even a big DT, safety or top LB with that pick.  The stats about how few first round CB’s are starting for teams down the line doesn’t compel to take a CB in the first round.  Gotta pick a position that presents a “must have” player, whatever that position might be.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Aurelius said:

Unless you get access to a Sauce or Stingley, I don’t see the Bills using their top pick for a CB.  It’s been discussed here already but I think they probably nab a stud WR or even a big DT, safety or top LB with that pick.  The stats about how few first round CB’s are starting for teams down the line doesn’t compel to take a CB in the first round.  Gotta pick a position that presents a “must have” player, whatever that position might be.

 

 

 

Or Booth. I think he is CB1 personally.