Joe Marino: Would Bills Start Season with 2nd and 3rd round rookies starting at CB? McBeane Did It Before.

[section122]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is not a given that Taron is a Bill beyond 2022. 

He just signed a new contract and the out is after 2023.  He will be a bill at least that long.  His contract is also very reasonable especially considering his talent. 

 

Any particular reason you think they would move on after this year?

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

I haven’t watched Booth play, but the stat about him giving up about 50-59 or so percents of targets for completions is concerning?  Or is there more context to the stat I’m (likely) missing?

 

Jalen Ramsey gives up 57%. Tre White 53%. Anything below 60% is pretty darn good. Obviously you have to factor increase in competition in the NFL etc.. but if he stayed at that number he would be a very good NFL corner. 

[whorlnut]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

When I saw this, I thought it was a great question.

 

Comes from Joe Marino here:

 

 

It's at around 1:11:36.

 

He points out that in the 2015 season, the Panthers went 15-1 and lost the Super Bowl, and then in the offseason they declined to re-sign Josh Norman, and Peanut Tillman retired, their two starting CBs.

 

In response, they started two rookie draft picks, their 2nd (James Bradberry) and 3rd (Daryl Worley) rounders.

 

Joe doesn't mention the results, which were not very good, but I'm sure he's aware of it. McDermott and Beane are too.

 

And while the replacement CBs sure did not have a good year, they were far from the only reason this team got a lot worse the next year.

 

Interestingly, when I went back to quickly look at that team, I found that the 2016 Panthers went 2-6 in one-score games. That sounds a bit familiar, doesn't it? And the next year they went 11-5.

 

To me, it raises some interesting questions. We're in a better spot than they were, with Tre White coming back. Would they not bring in a mid-level FA CB, a Haven or Rhodes or that type? Would they be comfortable starting one rookie, a 2nd rounder maybe and having a 3rd rounder keep the seat warm for a few weeks for Tre if he's not read? Or the 2nd rounder and Dane Jackson till Tre gets back?

 

They did a mock at the same link with Olave and Parham in the first two rounds, without this thought in mind, just doing their best picks.

 

 

 

Been saying this for a while, but the 1st round corner crowd conveniently ignores it. This staff seems to really like Dane Jackson. If you pair him with a vet or 2nd-3rd round rookie, we will be fine until Tre is 100%, which I believe will be sooner than most of us think. 
 

The history is there. This group has done it before, as Marino has mentioned. Marino is also VERY high on Cam Taylor-Britt in the 3rd. Oh by the way…his comp?  James Bradberry. The very guy that the Panthers drafted in the 2nd round that year.

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Bradberry actually played quite well even as a rookie. Worley was never very good and was bouncing around somewhere as a practice squad player last I heard. If memory serves I think the Panthers had some turnover at safety as well that year. So they were basically making over the entire secondary. 

 

I think the slight quandry for the Bills this time around is that there is not an excess of 2nd round type corners. It is a bit of a dead spot in the corner class. There are the 7 guys I think can start and perform well early, all of whom I guess will be gone by #57. And then there is a good stack if developmental guys that I think belong in rounds 3 and 4. So it complicates the assessment a bit. I am getting to a place where I expect the Bills to go corner at #25 and then come back for a receiver in the 2nd. Not saying that is what I'd do. But that is where I am landing on predicting what they will do.

Cam Taylor-Britt?  Josh Williams?  Martin Emerson?

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, section122 said:

He just signed a new contract and the out is after 2023.  He will be a bill at least that long.  His contract is also very reasonable especially considering his talent. 

 

Any particular reason you think they would move on after this year?

 

I am not saying they WILL.... I just think they could. He counts $9.5m against the cap next year. That is a big number for a slot corner. Now the Bills play their slot over 85% of the time so they are maybe less concerned than other teams by that.... but the out is before 2023. He is only $5m to get out after this year. Split that into two $2.5m chunks by designating post 1 June cut and it is a very team friendly out. They are going to have to make some tough decisions on defense after 2022. As of now the ONLY projected starters on defense in 2023 who won't haven't been paid are Rousseau and possibly Dane Jackson / drafted 2022 rookie. When Josh's number starts to get up there you can't have 9 defensive starters that you've paid. Maybe they let Poyer walk? Maybe they let Edmunds walk? Maybe they cut Milano (he is now $8.6m to get out after this season post the restructure)? Maybe they don't extend Oliver (he could play on the option in 2023)? Or maybe they cut Taron? 

 

Keep an eye on who they draft rounds 3 through 5 because I think that will give us a clue who the guys are on defense that they are looking at life beyond. 

[mjt328]

Not exactly the same.

 

Dane Jackson started the last 8 games of the season last year (including the playoffs) and was not a liability.

He's going into his third season, and I'm getting the impression the Bills are very confident in his ability to hold-down one side of the field.

 

The only reason Cornerback is such a massive priority is the injury to Tre White, and the uncertainty of when he gets back.

As of right now, we are looking at either Cam Lewis, Nick McCloud or Olaijah Griffin starting on Week 1.  And they would remain in the lineup until White is ready to come back.  Even if he only misses 2-3 games, we absolutely NEED someone capable to fill that spot.

 

As we witnessed last season... EVERY GAME COUNTS.  

We failed to show-up Week 1 against the Steelers.  We failed to convert a 4th-1 against the Titans.  We laid an egg against the Jaguars.

If even ONE of those games had gone the other way, the Bills would have gotten homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

The AFC is going to be a bloodbath.  We can't afford to just take our chances with an unknown commodity on the outside.

 

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

 

Cam Taylor-Britt?  Josh Williams?  Martin Emerson?

 

Emerson is basically the only guy I have in that "dead zone" for corners in round 2. I think he could come in, play as a rookie and give you maybe Levi Wallace type production. Taylor-Britt and Josh Williams are not giving you 2021 level Levi Wallace play as rookies IMO and I'd be surprised if either beat out Dane Jackson with two years in the system. I like them both. I think both are good developmental prospects by year 2 or 3 both could be better than Levi Wallace level IMO. But the reason I increasingly think it will be a corner at #25 is because if they do want a guy who can start and not be a downgrade in 2022 it is likely that guy needs to come with their first pick. 

 

You know my view. I'd do it for Booth, otherwise I'd prefer to go offense. But I am coming increasingly to the conclusion the Bills will go corner at #25. 

[BuffaloBill]

I would not be shocked to see that miraculously the BPA in rounds #1 & #2 for the Bills will be CB’s. Odds are that one of the two will “hit” as a starter and maybe the other becomes depth.  I also see them signing a “value” vet in the mix.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, RyanC883 said:

 

I haven’t watched Booth play, but the stat about him giving up about 50-59 or so percents of targets for completions is concerning?  Or is there more context to the stat I’m (likely) missing?

You should watch him play. 

[Mickey]

Has "bringing in a veteran" actually worked for us at CB in the past?  Davis retired at halftime, EG Gaines was knocked out by injury (twice) and Norman was less than mediocre.  I would think that Beane would be pretty hesitant to take that bus again. 

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

What would we do with two high picks at corner? We have Tre White and Taron Johnson. One of those two picks would just be a backup his whole Bills career? If this were a Wink Martindale defense I might listen to a case for over-stocking that way but it's poor allocation for a zone defense where guys like Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson are functional starters, let alone backups.

Our base defense is 3 CB’s.

[whorlnut]

47 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

Not exactly the same.

 

Dane Jackson started the last 8 games of the season last year (including the playoffs) and was not a liability.

He's going into his third season, and I'm getting the impression the Bills are very confident in his ability to hold-down one side of the field.

 

The only reason Cornerback is such a massive priority is the injury to Tre White, and the uncertainty of when he gets back.

As of right now, we are looking at either Cam Lewis, Nick McCloud or Olaijah Griffin starting on Week 1.  And they would remain in the lineup until White is ready to come back.  Even if he only misses 2-3 games, we absolutely NEED someone capable to fill that spot.

 

As we witnessed last season... EVERY GAME COUNTS.  

We failed to show-up Week 1 against the Steelers.  We failed to convert a 4th-1 against the Titans.  We laid an egg against the Jaguars.

If even ONE of those games had gone the other way, the Bills would have gotten homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

The AFC is going to be a bloodbath.  We can't afford to just take our chances with an unknown commodity on the outside.

 

I agree with this. That’s another argument against a highly drafted corner. If they are indeed happy with Dane on one side of the field, then why burn a first rounder on a guy “just in case” Tre isn’t ready to start the season?  I mean, once he’s back then what?  We drafted a first round corner to hold it down until Tre is back?  Sorry…I just can’t behind that logic. 

[Einstein's Dog]

32 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

As we witnessed last season... EVERY GAME COUNTS.  

We failed to show-up Week 1 against the Steelers.  We failed to convert a 4th-1 against the Titans.  We laid an egg against the Jaguars.

 

The AFC is going to be a bloodbath.  We can't afford to just take our chances with an unknown commodity on the outside.

 

I agree. I would be nervous with a rookie.  I want a vet CB in here.

 

Maybe the FO is maybe waiting until after the draft to see where to put -and how much- into the remaining spots. 

For instance if they draft Booth, maybe then the FO goes for a cheaper short term, prove it contract for one of the CBs who are coming back from injury (and have been injury prone) - K King or B Callahan.

 

If they don't get a CB early, maybe they invest more into the CB spot - more aggressive for Bradberry, or Haden/Rhodes (whichever one they like)

[whorlnut]

49 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Emerson is basically the only guy I have in that "dead zone" for corners in round 2. I think he could come in, play as a rookie and give you maybe Levi Wallace type production. Taylor-Britt and Josh Williams are not giving you 2021 level Levi Wallace play as rookies IMO and I'd be surprised if either beat out Dane Jackson with two years in the system. I like them both. I think both are good developmental prospects by year 2 or 3 both could be better than Levi Wallace level IMO. But the reason I increasingly think it will be a corner at #25 is because if they do want a guy who can start and not be a downgrade in 2022 it is likely that guy needs to come with their first pick. 

 

You know my view. I'd do it for Booth, otherwise I'd prefer to go offense. But I am coming increasingly to the conclusion the Bills will go corner at #25. 

I just think they like Dane a lot more than anyone wants to believe. There is a reason they haven’t signed a vet yet and I find it hard to believe that they would be this transparent if they did want a corner. 

[klos63]

1 hour ago, whorlnut said:

Been saying this for a while, but the 1st round corner crowd conveniently ignores it. This staff seems to really like Dane Jackson. If you pair him with a vet or 2nd-3rd round rookie, we will be fine until Tre is 100%, which I believe will be sooner than most of us think. 
 

The history is there. This group has done it before, as Marino has mentioned. Marino is also VERY high on Cam Taylor-Britt in the 3rd. Oh by the way…his comp?  James Bradberry. The very guy that the Panthers drafted in the 2nd round that year.

Cam Taylor-Britt?  Josh Williams?  Martin Emerson?

When do you think he will be 100% and when do most of us think he will be?

[intimidatortj]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

When I saw this, I thought it was a great question.

 

Comes from Joe Marino here:

 

 

It's at around 1:11:36.

 

He points out that in the 2015 season, the Panthers went 15-1 and lost the Super Bowl, and then in the offseason they declined to re-sign Josh Norman, and Peanut Tillman retired, their two starting CBs.

 

In response, they started two rookie draft picks, their 2nd (James Bradberry) and 3rd (Daryl Worley) rounders.

 

Joe doesn't mention the results, which were not very good, but I'm sure he's aware of it. McDermott and Beane are too.

 

And while the replacement CBs sure did not have a good year, they were far from the only reason this team got a lot worse the next year.

 

Interestingly, when I went back to quickly look at that team, I found that the 2016 Panthers went 2-6 in one-score games. That sounds a bit familiar, doesn't it? And the next year they went 11-5.

 

To me, it raises some interesting questions. We're in a better spot than they were, with Tre White coming back. Would they not bring in a mid-level FA CB, a Haven or Rhodes or that type? Would they be comfortable starting one rookie, a 2nd rounder maybe and having a 3rd rounder keep the seat warm for a few weeks for Tre if he's not read? Or the 2nd rounder and Dane Jackson till Tre gets back?

 

They did a mock at the same link with Olave and Parham in the first two rounds, without this thought in mind, just doing their best picks.

 

 

 

 

So you are saying starting a 3rd round rookie corner might not give you good results?

 

And there is a possibility we do that?   Yikes.  Who can we trade for!

2 minutes ago, klos63 said:

When do you think he will be 100% and when do most of us think he will be?

 

It seems fans think Tre White will be 100% on September 1st.

 

I wonder what the doctors think.   

 

And, how much conditioning time does he need?   If his knee just becomes 100% on August 15th, he ain't going to be 100% football ready by opening game.   

 

Let's hear from the medical field about the timeline.  

 

[RocCityRoller]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is not a given that Taron is a Bill beyond 2022. 

 

Hey Gunner, just checked Over The Cap and it shows Taron Johnson is under contract through 2024. Neither 2023 or 2024 look like voidable years.

 

His cap hits do almost double from 2022 to 2023, but he is under contract. It is true, more cap savings could be realized if Buffalo were to move on from him in 2023 and especially 2024. T Johnson will be @28 at the end of his contract. I actually like how it was structured.

 

Maybe I am misunderstanding your point.

 

EDIT - I saw your post follow up. I still think Johnson is a Bill through 2024. The contract is pretty reasonable for a guy playing 80%+ of defensive snaps.

Edited April 14, 2022 by RocCityRoller

[chris heff]

32 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

I just think they like Dane a lot more than anyone wants to believe. There is a reason they haven’t signed a vet yet and I find it hard to believe that they would be this transparent if they did want a corner. 

I think you are right, but there could be more to it. They may not like any of the vet corners available, or they think the price is too high. Time is on the Bills side, the longer these guys are on the market the more the price drops. I doubt they sign a CB before the draft. That first round pick is going to be interesting.

[dollars 2 donuts]

We don't say this enough...heck, I don't say this enough because I am always quick to comment on some of the judgement that takes place around here...as if I have any special insight to the way things work.  😛  (Obviously I don't)

 

But I have to speak up now in the alternative...I am impressed in this thread with the knowledge that many of you have brought to this subject.  Things that I don't normally think about as far as why the Bills would end up doing what they might do at the CB position.  

 

This is one of the few anxious concerns for me going into the draft and in getting ready for the 2022 season.  This is one of those times where I look at the TSW and your comments and I can't help but think, "Damn...My Guys and Gals here get this and I am much better on the subject for having read and digested some of their thoughts."

 

Sorry...this is just a long winded way of being appreciative to be here and to thank you for sharing your thoughts.

Edited April 14, 2022 by dollars 2 donuts

[newcam2012]

7 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

It is.  They certainly could start a rookie given they have an experienced safety tandem and nickle corner to help along the way.  God help us if Cam Lewis or Siran Neal fills in until T. White gets back.

If that's the plan I believe it's not optimal and likely to be exploited by good teams. The Bills better get a quality stop gap veteran CB and draft the best available CB at 25.  Perhaps even trade up a few spots to get that quality CB. 

[YoloinOhio]

I think they will draft one and then sign a vet after the dust settles after the draft. Vets will be cut.

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Bradberry actually played quite well even as a rookie. Worley was never very good and was bouncing around somewhere as a practice squad player last I heard. If memory serves I think the Panthers had some turnover at safety as well that year. So they were basically making over the entire secondary. 

 

I think the slight quandry for the Bills this time around is that there is not an excess of 2nd round type corners. It is a bit of a dead spot in the corner class. There are the 7 guys I think can start and perform well early, all of whom I guess will be gone by #57. And then there is a good stack if developmental guys that I think belong in rounds 3 and 4. So it complicates the assessment a bit. I am getting to a place where I expect the Bills to go corner at #25 and then come back for a receiver in the 2nd. Not saying that is what I'd do. But that is where I am landing on predicting what they will do.

Yea Worley was with the Bills briefly in 2020 - I think he actually had to play a lot vs Arizona due to injury And/or covid. He was bad.