Lance Zierlein "I have CB Andrew Booth slipping out of the 1st round"

[Seoulofstone]

23 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

As Mike Tyson famously said, "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face" -- you're not wrong that our staff has shown the ability to find and/or develop talent from non-elite picks, but last year's draft is a great example of what can happen when you wait... you get left in the dust. At some point, need supersedes the ability to wait and have plans on plans on plans. If there's a position on this roster where that's the case, it's at CB...

 That’s a fine decision making paradigm if you can promise me that the guy you’re trading up for is the truth. Gareon Conley went 3 picks before Tre. Remember Okudah who went to Detroit?People sell themselves on picks. Not saying I have the answer either. Happily defer to our coaches judgement.

[RyanC883]

25 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

As Mike Tyson famously said, "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face" -- you're not wrong that our staff has shown the ability to find and/or develop talent from non-elite picks, but last year's draft is a great example of what can happen when you wait... you get left in the dust. At some point, need supersedes the ability to wait and have plans on plans on plans. If there's a position on this roster where that's the case, it's at CB...

 

we need to trade-up then.  Can't reach in round 1 for a non-impact, non BPA player.  

[HappyDays]

27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The interesting thing here is Giardi saying Kyler Gordon is a 1st rounder.

 

I'm not sure Gordon is what McDermott looks for in a corner though. The more I evaluate the 1st round options the more I see Booth and Hill as the only CB options in the 1st round (obviously Gardner too, but that's not realistic). Lance Zierlein's scouting report isn’t scripture but the weaknesses in Gordon's game...

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/kyler-gordon/3200474f-5219-8616-e177-4605181465d0

 

...don't look like a 1st round CB for this regime. CB might be the one position where McDermott doesn't really care about elite athleticism. He wants instincts and good tackling and good technique. Gordon appears to be average to below average on each of those traits.

 

Edited April 13, 2022 by HappyDays

[glazeduck]

1 minute ago, Seoulofstone said:

 That’s a fine decision making paradigm if you can promise me that the guy you’re trading up for is the truth. Gareon Conley went 3 picks before Tre. Remember Okudah who went to Detroit?People sell themselves on picks. Not saying I have the answer either. Happily defer to our coaches judgement.

 

1 minute ago, RyanC883 said:

 

we need to trade-up then.  Can't reach in round 1 for a non-impact, non BPA player.  

I think we're just waiting on James Bradberry. But if that doesn't come to fruition, I'm not necessarily saying we have to trade up, just that we need to prioritize CB as a need if we don't add a reliable veteran. 

[RyanC883]

Could Booth be slipping due to this.  Per PFF: Booth has some of the best feet in the draft class, but he got exposed a tad too often for our liking. He gave up 29 catches from 46 targets for 312 yards in his first full year as a starter." (emphasis added).  That seems like a high completion rate on targets.  

[mjt328]

30 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

As Mike Tyson famously said, "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face" -- you're not wrong that our staff has shown the ability to find and/or develop talent from non-elite picks, but last year's draft is a great example of what can happen when you wait... you get left in the dust. At some point, need supersedes the ability to wait and have plans on plans on plans. If there's a position on this roster where that's the case, it's at CB...

 

What was wrong with last year's draft?  I thought it was a great example of why you wait, and don't force things.

 

We went in with a strong/deep roster.  No rookies were expected to crack the starting lineup.

Yet Greg Rousseau was good enough to force himself above Mario Addison on Week 1.  And Spencer Brown was starting by mid-season.

 

Don't forget.  Fans were clamoring for us to trade-up last year too.  

People wanted Kwity Paye, because he was the most pro-ready edge rusher.  Rousseau outperformed in Year 1, and has a bigger ceiling.

 

[intimidatortj]

4 hours ago, aristocrat said:

what's the injury concern?

 

He missed the combine because of a quad injury.  "Andrew Booth Jr. suffered a strained quad muscle while training for the 40-yard dash and will miss workouts at the combine"

 

Then he missed his pro day because of having a sports hernia surgery. 

 

In college, he dealt with a lot of nagging injuries.  He wasn't always available in practice or games in 2020, and that trend carried over into spring practice in 2021 because of nagging injuries and such. Clemson coaches have had a simple message for Andrew Booth Jr. in fall camp: "The best ability is availability."

 

IMO, teams just have to drill down more on those college injuries to find out if it is a concern.   I am sure the Bills medical staff has looked hard at his medicals. 

 

[intimidatortj]

2 hours ago, Garrett Williams said:

I just watched the Clemson N.C. St. game, the Georgia game and the Boston College game. Booth looks like a spectacular upgrade over Dane Jackson, and I like Jackson. I did not read any of your guy's posts. Maybe there is something I'm missing. Great tackler and sticky defender in those games. I will go and read what you have to say. Go Bills!!

He had several nagging injuries in 2020 and then again during spring practice 2021.   The coaches even got on him and said "the best ability is availability" entering the fall 2021 season.

 

Then he missed the combine workouts because of a quad injury.

 

And now he missed his pro day because of having to have a sports hernia operation.

 

Nothing is screaming run away, but it is something to dig down on.  I am sure the Bills medical staff is looking into those college injuries. 

[BillsFanForever19]

Uh huh. This doesn't reek of someone putting out Intel to Lance hoping that it will make him fall or anything like that 🙄

[DJB]

4 hours ago, NewEra said:

Imagine, Jameson Williams slipping to 25 and the. Trading up in rd 2 for booth?  Oh man. 
 

that said, I don’t think Booth falls to us. He’s too good

 

[glazeduck]

44 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

What was wrong with last year's draft?  I thought it was a great example of why you wait, and don't force things.

 

We went in with a strong/deep roster.  No rookies were expected to crack the starting lineup.

Yet Greg Rousseau was good enough to force himself above Mario Addison on Week 1.  And Spencer Brown was starting by mid-season.

 

Don't forget.  Fans were clamoring for us to trade-up last year too.  

People wanted Kwity Paye, because he was the most pro-ready edge rusher.  Rousseau outperformed in Year 1, and has a bigger ceiling.

 

We thought a CB would fall to us in the 2nd, and when one did not, reached on another DE, which was the 3rd we'd drafted in the first or 2nd round in the past 2 drafts. Basham may turn out alright, but it was a luxury pick at best, a panic reach, at worst.

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Matt Miller has said the same to me. But his injuries are what, a sports hernia? 

 

Reeks to me of teams lower down the 1st round who need corners trying to get him to fall. 

 

Sometimes 5 star mega recruits like Andrew Booth who every scout has been penciling in as 1st rounders for 3-4 years can suffer from "prospect fatigue" and lose some luster compared to late bloomers but unless the medicals are considerably more concerning than that it's hard to see him falling into round 2.    

 

Clemson took a step back as a program this past season but I thought Booth kept getting better and the stats seem to support that.    He doesn't have any real negatives on his resume other than a punch he threw in a game vs Louisville as a freshman and my understanding that was it.    Seems like a safe pick.

 

I will say that I believe that the CB position took a reputation hit in the playoffs..........Jalen Ramsey getting scorched for numerous big plays may have caused something of a "if he can't be shut down then maybe nobody can" mentality that fed this WR market frenzy.    

 

The UFA CB market has been noticeably cold and the salaries have stagnated so it stands to reason that feeling could spill over to the draft...........but McDuffie/Elam/Gordon before Booth wouldn't be right, IMO.

 

 

Edited April 13, 2022 by BADOLBILZ

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Sometimes 5 star mega recruits like Andrew Booth who every scout has been penciling in as 1st rounders for 3-4 years can suffer from "prospect fatigue" and lose some luster compared to late bloomers but unless the medicals are considerably more concerning than that it's hard to see him falling into round 2.    

 

Clemson took a step back as a program this past season but I thought Booth kept getting better and the stats seem to support that.    He doesn't have any real negatives on his resume other than a punch he threw in a game vs Louisville as a freshman and my understanding that was it.    Seems like a safe pick.

 

I will say that I believe that the CB position took a reputation hit in the playoffs..........Jalen Ramsey getting scorched for numerous big plays may have caused something of a "if he can't be shut down then maybe nobody can" mentality that fed this WR market frenzy.    

 

The UFA CB market has been noticeably cold and the salaries have stagnated so it stands to reason that feeling could spill over to the draft...........but McDuffie/Elam/Gordon before Booth wouldn't be right, IMO.

 

 

 

Yea I really, really, really struggle to find them on his film. I spoke to Matt Miller about him specifically because I was like "what am I missing that he keeps being ranked in the 20s by people on big boards. What is the thing on the film that I should be seeing and I am not?" And he couldn't really answer it said well I have heard the injuries are a concern.... but a double hernia should not be an injury that causes a prospect that good to drop. I wondered for a bit if the Clemson corner thing was part of it - Mackensie Alexander and Trayvon Mullen came highly touted out of that scheme and failed in the league, but AJ Terrell has established himself as a top 10 corner in Atlanta and Booth's tape is better than his was. 

 

Odd. 

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The interesting thing here is Giardi saying Kyler Gordon is a 1st rounder.

I think Gordon could be a fit for the Bills.  I have seen ratings on him from late 1st, early 2nd, to late 2nd.  I think those with the lower rating may be there because he ran a 4.52 - which isn’t “slow”.  40 times can indicate speed or lack of, but it is not hard to imagine that guys with a track background could time .1 or .2s faster than others purely on starting technique.

 

Gordon is an outstanding athlete with size and tackling want-to and ability that the team looks for.  That is also the profile for Booth.

 

In contrast, Kaiir looks very smooth in coverage with good size too, but he doesn’t appear to me to be as eager to tackle.

[HappyDays]

32 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I really, really, really struggle to find them on his film. I spoke to Matt Miller about him specifically because I was like "what am I missing that he keeps being ranked in the 20s by people on big boards. What is the thing on the film that I should be seeing and I am not?" And he couldn't really answer it said well I have heard the injuries are a concern.... but a double hernia should not be an injury that causes a prospect that good to drop. I wondered for a bit if the Clemson corner thing was part of it - Mackensie Alexander and Trayvon Mullen came highly touted out of that scheme and failed in the league, but AJ Terrell has established himself as a top 10 corner in Atlanta and Booth's tape is better than his was. 

 

Odd. 

 

I'm a big fan of Chris Simms, I don't know how much you trust his evaluations but he has Booth as his #4 CB behind Gardner, McDuffie, and Armour-Davis.

 

The Booth discussion starts about 15 minutes in. The negatives he sees are his hips and feet, he says there are too many instances of Booth ending up on the ground when facing off against strong route runners. He thinks Booth will match up well against athletic and speedy receivers, and less so against elite route runners. To me if that analysis is correct he still sounds like a perfect fit for the Bills because his skill complements Tre White's skill set really well.

[glazeduck]

24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I really, really, really struggle to find them on his film. I spoke to Matt Miller about him specifically because I was like "what am I missing that he keeps being ranked in the 20s by people on big boards. What is the thing on the film that I should be seeing and I am not?" And he couldn't really answer it said well I have heard the injuries are a concern.... but a double hernia should not be an injury that causes a prospect that good to drop. I wondered for a bit if the Clemson corner thing was part of it - Mackensie Alexander and Trayvon Mullen came highly touted out of that scheme and failed in the league, but AJ Terrell has established himself as a top 10 corner in Atlanta and Booth's tape is better than his was. 

 

Odd. 

Best guess -- football is becoming "less simple". Not necessarily "more complicated", per se, but you've got all of these things colliding at once: analytics, player tracking data, more exotic schemes, personnel strategies, changing player profile dynamics all both from the college and pro ranks, increased focus from the media, larger contracts (both for players and execs), social media, you name it -- all of those are making a GM's job more difficult. 

 

And sometimes, like with Booth, football doesn't have to be hard.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think Gordon could be a fit for the Bills.  I have seen ratings on him from late 1st, early 2nd, to late 2nd.  I think those with the lower rating may be there because he ran a 4.52 - which isn’t “slow”.  40 times can indicate speed or lack of, but it is not hard to imagine that guys with a track background could time .1 or .2s faster than others purely on starting technique.

 

Gordon is an outstanding athlete with size and tackling want-to and ability that the team looks for.  That is also the profile for Booth.

 

In contrast, Kaiir looks very smooth in coverage with good size too, but he doesn’t appear to me to be as eager to tackle.

 

Yep. Agree, Gordon is a fit. Kaiir, while a good player is a less obvious Bills fit. 

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm a big fan of Chris Simms, I don't know how much you trust his evaluations but he has Booth as his #4 CB behind Gardner, McDuffie, and Armour-Davis.

 

The Booth discussion starts about 15 minutes in. The negatives he sees are his hips and feet, he says there are too many instances of Booth ending up on the ground when facing off against strong route runners. He thinks Booth will match up well against athletic and speedy receivers, and less so against elite route runners. To me if that analysis is correct he still sounds like a perfect fit for the Bills because his skill complements Tre White's skill set really well.

 

Meh. I listen to Simms, he is always worth listening to, because he does often spot some of the nuance. But I don't love him as an evaluator. Even on Quarterbacks where he has a reasonable record he was very high on Drew Lock and last year on Zack Wilson. One of those is already on team two and Wilson, while personally I think he is stuck in the wrong scheme, has a lot of improving to do. 

[Norcalbillsfan]

Only way he makes it past 25 is if williams is there and the bills are in love with a cb on day 2.

[BADOLBILZ]

19 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Best guess -- football is becoming "less simple". Not necessarily "more complicated", per se, but you've got all of these things colliding at once: analytics, player tracking data, more exotic schemes, personnel strategies, changing player profile dynamics all both from the college and pro ranks, increased focus from the media, larger contracts (both for players and execs), social media, you name it -- all of those are making a GM's job more difficult. 

 

And sometimes, like with Booth, football doesn't have to be hard.

 

 

I agree that it's less simple and at the same time not more complicated.    

 

But I actually think it's making GM's jobs easier by making it easier to make sound decisions..........so long as they embrace the information.  

 

A significant part of the evaluations/decisions are being done by the math.

 

[Solomon Grundy]

3 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

What was wrong with last year's draft?  I thought it was a great example of why you wait, and don't force things.

 

We went in with a strong/deep roster.  No rookies were expected to crack the starting lineup.

Yet Greg Rousseau was good enough to force himself above Mario Addison on Week 1.  And Spencer Brown was starting by mid-season.

 

Don't forget.  Fans were clamoring for us to trade-up last year too.  

People wanted Kwity Paye, because he was the most pro-ready edge rusher.  Rousseau outperformed in Year 1, and has a bigger ceiling.

 

The Bills like to draft the “high ceiling” guys, that’s why I said earlier about Woolen. Big, athletic high ceiling guy