Trading into the top 10? Top 20?

[2003Contenders]

1 hour ago, Heavy Kevi said:

 

Unless you have a roster like the Bills right now. We won't have the roster space to sign all the rookies if we don't trade picks... So why not consolidate picks to yield better players? I really can't think of a real argument against it with the current state of this team.

 

If you have a roster full of holes yes, stay put. Draft at your slots, move around minimally... But when you have a stacked roster with very little holes, you identify your guys and you go get them.

You make a good point about the depth of the existing roster and potentially wasting later round picks, which is why I do see the Bills packaging some of those picks to move up in the middle rounds (say, 2nd-4th) -- but I don't think they want to cede future 1st rounders or give away this year's 2nd to move up in the 1st -- unless the temptation to move up is too hard to pass.

[machine gun kelly]

We’ll supposedly this is a deep draft for WR and DE’s.  We don’t really need an End at this point, and you can make the argument to take a mid round WR’s.  
 

IMHO, CB if taken high enough could be a year 1 starter.  Of the six mentioned above Gardner has experience

and talent as a zone CB.  That places a nice blanket on the backend.  We’ve already improved significantly on the front end.

[YattaOkasan]

6 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

We’ll supposedly this is a deep draft for WR and DE’s.  We don’t really need an End at this point, and you can make the argument to take a mid round WR’s.  
 

IMHO, CB if taken high enough could be a year 1 starter.  Of the six mentioned above Gardner has experience

and talent as a zone CB.  That places a nice blanket on the backend.  We’ve already improved significantly on the front end.

Im with you.  WR or CB in Round 1 please.  The lack of action on CB has been very apparent.  Its not like Beane and McD to not have a plan so I trust they are gonna do something they have confidence will net a good player and they can execute.  This has me me thinking they like a target they know they can get at the end of round 1 or they feel confident they can move up to get in round 2.  Moving up in round 1 just feels as if it could be too pricey to be the plan.

Edited April 13, 2022 by YattaOkasan

[machine gun kelly]

The more we talk this out, there is a chance they like a couple of guys, and maybe they can get to 10-20 in the pick status.  
 

I know it’s a lot to give up, but we have a pretty complete offense as in the past we did a lot of 3-5 WR sets, but this was primarily 10 or 11 personnel.  This year we have an excellent 12 personnel grouping.  Or even 22 personnel with using Knox, Howard, Motor, and Gilliam in as a blocker.  That’s a heavy set made for pounding people not to mention Allen will never completely give up running himself.

[BuffaloMatt]

In Beane I Trust. . . . .

[Shake_My_Head]

Definitely no trade-ups to the top-10 this year.   Top-20 is a stretch as well, unless the value just screams out due to some strange picks pushing guys lower (count on the Raiders to contribute to that again!)

 

All in all, I'm pretty ambivalent about this year's draft class.    I like the guys in the 25-45 range better than the top 20 relative to past years.

[Shaw66]

Whether Bills will trade up and whether Beane is prepared to do are two different questions.  

 

Beane WILL trade up if he see a player that he believes is off such value that it's worth using draft capital to do it.   (That in part depends on his view of how many rookies actually could make this team.)   We know he'll trade up, because we all saw him do it to get Edmunds, and there are a few other examples.   When he see what he thinks is real value, he'll go get it.   As he says regularly, he'll do whatever he thinks he has to make the team better.  

 

I'm at the point where I'm not surprised by anything he does.  I mean, I can't predict what he'll do, but when he does it, it's Beane being Beane.  I really appreciate the breakdown of potential draft moves up in the original post.  It's sort of a menu of what Beane can select from as the draft progresses.  What we don't know, of course, is what Beane and McDermott think of these guys in terms of the key elements - team mindset, learner, tireless worker, etc.   If they see a guy who's a special athlete AND has the mindset they want, I can see Beane going up two spots, six spots, almost anyplace to around the top 10.  Can't see them being willing to give up draft capital necessary to get into the top 10.  You only do that for a quarterback.   I don't think you do that even you know for an absolute certainty you're getting the next Aaron Donald, because the extra performance you get out of him just isn't worth giving up several valuable picks.  

[Augie]

59 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Im also cooling on edmunds for the money reason.  the improving each game is for 2020 i believe.  Last year Klein only replaced edmunds in the colts game and the Jets # 1 game.  Also agree on CB is the primary need.  To the OP i hesitate to trade up as it will cost too many top 100 picks which I think are very important to our continued success.

 

We have a LOT of good players who want to be PAID. We need all these high picks, and we need to I hit on them to lower our labor costs. One great prospect sounds awesome, but is it better than 3-4 solid starters who allow for more cap space to pay your stars?   🤷‍♂️

[glazeduck]

13 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Whether Bills will trade up and whether Beane is prepared to do are two different questions.  

 

Beane WILL trade up if he see a player that he believes is off such value that it's worth using draft capital to do it.   (That in part depends on his view of how many rookies actually could make this team.)   We know he'll trade up, because we all saw him do it to get Edmunds, and there are a few other examples.   When he see what he thinks is real value, he'll go get it.   As he says regularly, he'll do whatever he thinks he has to make the team better.  

 

I'm at the point where I'm not surprised by anything he does.  I mean, I can't predict what he'll do, but when he does it, it's Beane being Beane.  I really appreciate the breakdown of potential draft moves up in the original post.  It's sort of a menu of what Beane can select from as the draft progresses.  What we don't know, of course, is what Beane and McDermott think of these guys in terms of the key elements - team mindset, learner, tireless worker, etc.   If they see a guy who's a special athlete AND has the mindset they want, I can see Beane going up two spots, six spots, almost anyplace to around the top 10.  Can't see them being willing to give up draft capital necessary to get into the top 10.  You only do that for a quarterback.   I don't think you do that even you know for an absolute certainty you're getting the next Aaron Donald, because the extra performance you get out of him just isn't worth giving up several valuable picks.  

When they traded up for Edmunds and Josh, they were very clearly wanting to set the foundation of both sides of the roster. To your points, they saw the right guys with the right skills AND the right mindsets at the right price and pulled the trigger. 

 

We're a lot farther down the road now, so I think it's fair to expect some evolution of that thinking. As I mentioned earlier, we're going to have to get creative with contracts, a 17-game schedule means we need more depth, a more pass-happy league places even more emphasis on DBs, our past few drafts and FA periods cannot be discounted (how much more can we afford to invest in pass rush?!?), nor can our overall talent level (as I've said before, I think we're good enough to risk a few losses in the right deal). All that together, suggest 3 possible trade up outcomes... 

1. Go get sauce. He checks every box above and if McVey thinks he can turn this kid into a superstar alongside Tre, I'd entertain the idea (but probably cost-prohibitive).

2. (As mentioned previously) if you can flip Dawkins and 25 for one of the top tackles, I think that's worth considering as well.

3. If Jameson Williams (or whoever they think is a difference maker at WR) falls to where a minor trade up gets *their guy*, I'd think that's worth it too.

Edited April 13, 2022 by glazeduck

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, Georgie said:

I dont think "every"  team will bother to trade up just to hamper the  Bills. What about the OTHER teams they have to worry about,  besides worrying about the Bills? There will be good CBs available at 25 if the Bills want one there.

That was meant to read that “every” team will assume that drafting a CB is our intention and that at least one of those who wants said CB would trade up to get him.  I thought that was obvious. 

[TBBills]

They are definitely trying to move up but if they will be able to is another question we won't know until the time comes. 

 

IMO they might try for 2 first round picks or 3 in the first 2 rounds with a high second round.

[Kirby Jackson]

I wouldn’t be at all surprised by a trade up. Sauce is a guy that they could target if they go up to one of the Giants picks. 
 

I can’t help thinking that Beane must love Jameson Williams. He talked about “if you find another Tyreek Hill call me.” Williams is the closest thing. The Bills are absolutely looking for a WR that runs after the catch. That was a big problem last year. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Bills move up 10 spots(ish) to try to secure him.

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, Virgil said:

I respectfully disagree.  If we were in the top 10 and there were only 2 or 3 guys worth it, then probably. 
 

But with so many DB’s of value, 24 people ahead of us, and probably some teaches at QB, I think we will be fine staying put and still getting someone that can start day 1.  
 

Now, if Beane thinks there’s a game changer (which I don’t), then he will have no fear trading up. 

My expectations are that Beane will add a serviceable (or better) CB prior to the draft and give himself more options at 25.  Then it would be business as usual in the draft. 

 

If he doesn’t, then possibly multiple worthwhile CBs make it close to 25 and Beane can stay put.  But if the need at CB is as great as it looks now and the draft falls as I expect, then moving up a few spots would be the smart move IMO.  And I expect Beane to make the smart move.

 

Or maybe he has something else up his sleeve.  We can’t know what is going on behind the scenes.  Maybe he has a trade for a CB lined up with another GM that he trusts and both can wait until draft weekend to execute it.  Then why not let everyone think you’re in for a CB at 25?  I guess we will see how it all plays out.  

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, YattaOkasan said:

Im also cooling on edmunds for the money reason.  the improving each game is for 2020 i believe.  Last year Klein only replaced edmunds in the colts game and the Jets # 1 game.  Also agree on CB is the primary need.  To the OP i hesitate to trade up as it will cost too many top 100 picks which I think are very important to our continued success.

This is where I am at.   If we are about to be in a situation where it is Edmunds or Oliver then I want Oliver.   I actually think Edmunds is a better player then most give him credit for but if we are going to lose him to financial reasons.....draft his replacement now and let him get a year in the NFL before starting him.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, glazeduck said:

When they traded up for Edmunds and Josh, they were very clearly wanting to set the foundation of both sides of the roster. To your points, they saw the right guys with the right skills AND the right mindsets at the right price and pulled the trigger. 

 

We're a lot farther down the road now, so I think it's fair to expect some evolution of that thinking. As I mentioned earlier, we're going to have to get creative with contracts, a 17-game schedule means we need more depth, a more pass-happy league places even more emphasis on DBs, our past few drafts and FA periods cannot be discounted (how much more can we afford to invest in pass rush?!?), nor can our overall talent level (as I've said before, I think we're good enough to risk a few losses in the right deal). All that together, suggest 3 possible trade up outcomes... 

1. Go get sauce. He checks every box above and if McVey thinks he can turn this kid into a superstar alongside Tre, I'd entertain the idea (but probably cost-prohibitive).

2. (As mentioned previously) if you can flip Dawkins and 25 for one of the top tackles, I think that's worth considering as well.

3. If Jameson Williams (or whoever they think is a difference maker at WR) falls to where a minor trade up gets *their guy*, I'd think that's worth it too.

Thanks.  Actually, I think it's the same thinking in the sense that he'll move for what he thinks is the right player.   You've given a nice little summary on who you think might be the right person.   I don't know the draft class at all, so I don't know who sauce is, and it doesn't really matter.   Point is Beane will move for the correct corner.  I agree.  

 

Although it would be surprising, I can imagine that he'd move for a left tackle if he can develop a plan for how to deal with Dawkins - trading him is the obvious choice, and he's already traded a left tackle to move up.  It's a great benefit to have a 10- or 12-year starter at left tackle, and I'm still not convinced Dawkins is that guy.  

 

Absolutely I can see him dealing to move for what he thinks is a special receiver.  

 

Not a safety - too disruptive to the defense to move away from Poyer or Hyde right now, but the Bills will need a solution there in not many years.  Hamlin's development may help solve that problem.  

 

Maybe a linebacker, if Beane and McDermott share the wisdom of some here that Edmunds just isn't the answer.  People can call him McDermott's boy and all, but I think McBeane like Edmunds more than a lot of people here do.   I don't know, but the time a decision has to be made about Edmunds is coming, making the decision to move now wouldn't completely surprise me. 

 

I could see a move if they see what they think is a right center.

 

Hard to imagine that there'd be a running back they'd go after but hey, they have their view of what this team needs, and the right running back would be an amazing addition to the offense.  The problem with a running back is that if he isn't HOF great, you won't want to sign him when his contract is up, and that means burning first-round capital for short-term talent.   That's not consistent with their building philosophy.  

 

 

[billybrew1]

Sign Gilmore to a three year deal. Draft Watson, then go lineman, then go corner in the third….

[wppete]

Only trade up in this draft that makes sense for the Bills in the first round is for Sauce Gardner and that will be very expensive… I say we stay put and pray 🙏 that Trent McDuffie or Andrew Booth Jr. are there for us at #25

[Aussie Joe]

5 hours ago, Heavy Kevi said:

 

Unless you have a roster like the Bills right now. We won't have the roster space to sign all the rookies if we don't trade picks... So why not consolidate picks to yield better players? I really can't think of a real argument against it with the current state of this team.

 

 

THe only argument I would present is that these rookies you speak of that don’t make the team are late Day 3 picks that have minimal value in a trade up,,, particularly in the first round..

I can also say that there are a lot of Day 3 picks Beane has made that have made and contribute to this team so they are good and finding the diamonds in the rough..
 

Edited April 13, 2022 by Aussie Joe

[Ethan in Cleveland]

5 hours ago, mushypeaches said:

You don't trade up or into the 1st round unless you're looking for a QB.  That's the only position that you should part with any significant draft capital for.

 

Otherwise, let the draft come to you.

 

We circled the drain too many times during the drought years by chasing picks at other positions than QB.  

Conversely, we didn't pull the trigger on trades during the drafts that we really needed to find a QB 

Beane traded up in the first round for Edmunds and traded a first for Diggs.  So obviously Beane does not agree with you.  He has also done what you suggest and sat back and let Oliver and Rousseau come to him.  I think there are many factors at play

[Ethan in Cleveland]

You can spin this so many ways and find a positive path for the Bills.  

 

Trade up and burn some draft capital to get a shut down corner - this fits the plan of win now at all costs.  It might hurt in the long run, but if they get a top cover CB it helps now and gives them flexibility if White does not return to ProBowl form.

 

Stay put - there is probably enough depth in this draft at CB and WR to get an impact player late in the first round. Even if there is a run on both positions then that likely means a quality OL has fallen to them.  

 

Acquire more picks either with a trade down or moving Edmunds - this is the scenario that gives you cap flexibility in the next few years and restocks the roster with some young cheaper talent at LB, OL, WR, and secondary.  

 

I would probably choose trading Edmunds for a #2 and get 4 picks in the top 100.  I would use the savings to sign Gilmore and then I would then take a LB, CB, OT, and WR in no particular order.  Get a punter in the fifth and a safety later.