Trading into the top 10? Top 20?

[Yantha]

Hello Bills Fans,

 

First off, my apologies if this has been discussed in another draft thread, but when looking through, I could not find it.  For the first time in a WHILE, I feel like the Bills have less holes than "usual" to fill, and with last season's playoff showing, I am very excited to see where this team can go in the upcoming season.  

Yes, there are some clear needs and we have discussed what positions to go for in the first round.  I'm usually a STICK AND PICK strategist with the draft, but this year we can afford to spend one or more draft picks to MOVE UP and get an impact player.  Are there any below that are worth it?

 

I've seen in our discussions:

Corner

Linebacker

Wide Receiver

D-line

O-line

 

So what I'd like to discuss here... is if there are any TOP 10 Talents (or TOP 20) that WILL NOT be available at #25 (or at least unlikely) even in the best hopeful scenario..... that we could consider moving up for, what draft capital that move would cost, and if it would be in the best interests of the team to make such a move.

 

To consider: TOP 10

-Is there a top 10 Cornerback that would be an instant impact player?  Stingley?  McDuffy? Gardner?

-Is there a top 10 WR that could justify such a move? I'm thinking NO......

-Is there a top 10 Linebacker?  I'm thinking NO....

-How about DL?  Hutch?  Thibodeaux?  Karlaftis? I'm thinking maybe...

-O-line?  There are quite a few top 10 OT's on that list.  Is Left Tackle worth such a move?

 

To consider:  TOP 20 (a less drastic move).  Is there any ONE player that can be that much of a difference maker compared to the 20-30 ranked range?

11. Drake London WR USC

12 Garrett Wilson WR OHIO STATE

13 Bernhard Raimann TC MICHIGAN

14 Travon Walker ED GEORGIA

15 Devin Lloyd LB UTAH

16 Jameson Williams WR ALABAMA

17 Devonte Wyatt DI GEORGIA

18 Nakobe Dean  LB GEORGIA

19 Tyler Linderbaum C IOWA

20 Jordan Davis DI GEORGIA

 

TOP 21-32: QB's removed

21 Chris Olave WR OHIO STATE

23 Trevor Penning T N IOWA

24 David Ojabo ED MICHIGAN

26 Jermaine Johnson II ED FLORIDA ST

27 Andrew Booth Jr. CB CLEMSON

28 Lewis Cine S GEORGIA

29 Kaiir Elam CB FLORIDA

30 Jalen Pitre CB BAYLOR

31 Treylon Burks WR ARKANSAS

32 Zion Johnson G BOSTON COL

[BarleyNY]

I’ve said it several times before. Right now CB is the glaring need.  If we don’t sign a CB before the draft and we want to take one in the 1st round, then it will require at least a slight trade up.  That’s simply because every team will expect us to draft a CB and will trade ahead of us if they want that player.  

[mushypeaches]

You don't trade up or into the 1st round unless you're looking for a QB.  That's the only position that you should part with any significant draft capital for.

 

Otherwise, let the draft come to you.

 

We circled the drain too many times during the drought years by chasing picks at other positions than QB.  

Conversely, we didn't pull the trigger on trades during the drafts that we really needed to find a QB 

[gonzo1105]

I think they will take a CB at some point. I would suggest 1st round but I think this staff for better or worse believes in Dane Jackson quite a bit and their younger guys like Cam Lewis. I would want more of a sure thing but I could see the Bills waiting until the middle round 3-5 to draft their first CB. 

 

They have and will always take a guy they think is the best player at a position of need. I could see LB/SAF/OL at 25 just as much as I can see WR/CB

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

I would trade up to #20 if Trent McDuffie falls that far. I don't think any position besides cb is worth giving up picks.

[Simon Says]

12 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I’ve said it several times before. Right now CB is the glaring need.  If we don’t sign a CB before the draft and we want to take one in the 1st round, then it will require at least a slight trade up.  That’s simply because every team will expect us to draft a CB and will trade ahead of us if they want that player.  

I dont think "every"  team will bother to trade up just to hamper the  Bills. What about the OTHER teams they have to worry about,  besides worrying about the Bills? There will be good CBs available at 25 if the Bills want one there.

[Simon Says]

7 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I think they will take a CB at some point. I would suggest 1st round but I think this staff for better or worse believes in Dane Jackson quite a bit and their younger guys like Cam Lewis. I would want more of a sure thing but I could see the Bills waiting until the middle round 3-5 to draft their first CB. 

 

They have and will always take a guy they think is the best player at a position of need. I could see LB/SAF/OL at 25 just as much as I can see WR/CB

I think that is much too late. With the NFL emphasis on passing, Bills need to add a starting caliber CB, even if White is 100% ready and Dane develops.  No later than 2nd round. If Beane trades up, I think it will be day 2 and 3, not in first round.

[AuntieEm]

6 minutes ago, Allen2Diggs said:

I would trade up to #20 if Trent McDuffie falls that far. I don't think any position besides cb is worth giving up picks.

 

   Also would depend on what is needed to trade for a pick you want.  And it also needs a willing trade partner.  Bills are no longer the basement dwellers of drought times.  Other teams may not trade as readily with us now that we are the team they are chasing.  Whatever happens this front office has certainly earned my trust in their abilities to get pieces that fit.  Will every move be the correct one  of course not.  Most will work well enough with the solid core we have.

 

[Virgil]

30 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I’ve said it several times before. Right now CB is the glaring need.  If we don’t sign a CB before the draft and we want to take one in the 1st round, then it will require at least a slight trade up.  That’s simply because every team will expect us to draft a CB and will trade ahead of us if they want that player.  

I respectfully disagree.  If we were in the top 10 and there were only 2 or 3 guys worth it, then probably. 
 

But with so many DB’s of value, 24 people ahead of us, and probably some teaches at QB, I think we will be fine staying put and still getting someone that can start day 1.  
 

Now, if Beane thinks there’s a game changer (which I don’t), then he will have no fear trading up. 

[machine gun kelly]

CB up to top 10.  I’m consistent that I love the Syracuse article that was on another thread.  They swap 1’s, give away this years 3rd, and next year’s 1st.
 

It’s worth it to me.  The only other scenario would be keep the third, and give Edmunds to the Giants.  Some people mentioned last year Klein filled in pretty well when Edmunds was out after that first game.  I know we let Klein go, but I don’t if anyone has signed him yet, and we are thin at the cap.

 

Cheap labor in a ILB on the second or third is palatable as well.  My hope is we go after Gardner or one of the other blue chip corners, then find a WR somewhere in the draft, and a G.

[John from Riverside]

Not a fan of a trade up in the 1st round....costs too much

 

but

 

trade ups in rounds AFTER the 1st round make sense to me

[Heavy Kevi]

37 minutes ago, mushypeaches said:

You don't trade up or into the 1st round unless you're looking for a QB.  That's the only position that you should part with any significant draft capital for.

 

Otherwise, let the draft come to you.

 

We circled the drain too many times during the drought years by chasing picks at other positions than QB.  

Conversely, we didn't pull the trigger on trades during the drafts that we really needed to find a QB 

 

Unless you have a roster like the Bills right now. We won't have the roster space to sign all the rookies if we don't trade picks... So why not consolidate picks to yield better players? I really can't think of a real argument against it with the current state of this team.

 

If you have a roster full of holes yes, stay put. Draft at your slots, move around minimally... But when you have a stacked roster with very little holes, you identify your guys and you go get them.

[LeGOATski]

Beane has a tendency to trade up in the draft, so I won't be surprised. CB and LB seem like the only positions to me. The main targets would be Sauce Gardner and Devin Lloyd.

 

I don't think there would be an impact WR, DE, or OL that would justify trading up. Similar talent will be available at 25, IMO.

51 minutes ago, Allen2Diggs said:

I would trade up to #20 if Trent McDuffie falls that far. I don't think any position besides cb is worth giving up picks.

I don't think the Bills would. He doesn't even have the minimum length they like. I think they target, Stingley, Sauce, or Booth.

[Big Blitz]

I think it will be easier to trade up in RD2 and select Pickens.  

[YattaOkasan]

1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

CB up to top 10.  I’m consistent that I love the Syracuse article that was on another thread.  They swap 1’s, give away this years 3rd, and next year’s 1st.
 

It’s worth it to me.  The only other scenario would be keep the third, and give Edmunds to the Giants.  Some people mentioned last year Klein filled in pretty well when Edmunds was out after that first game.  I know we let Klein go, but I don’t if anyone has signed him yet, and we are thin at the cap.

 

Cheap labor in a ILB on the second or third is palatable as well.  My hope is we go after Gardner or one of the other blue chip corners, then find a WR somewhere in the draft, and a G.

Sorry need to fight silly Edmunds narratives.  It is categorically untrue that Klein filled in well for Edmunds.  I have contended that the data suggests we have better run defense with Edmunds in the line up.  Please prove either the defense or run defense did better with Klein in over Edmunds.  

[machine gun kelly]

It’s true he was bad at first, but improved with each game.  As I mentioned I’m like warm on Edmunds.  We only have so much space and he’s going to be a $14 mil. Asset.  We’ve already invested heavily defense.  We need a CB and is really the only starting hole we have on defense.

[glazeduck]

I don't think it's particularly likely to happen, BUT, we're going to have to be creative with salaries into the future... If you could find a team that valued Dawkins + 25 in the 10ish range and one of the top OTs was still on the board, I could see that potentially being interesting. 

 

Outside of something like that, or Sauce or Hamilton falling to the point where we could get him at a reasonable price, I don't think trading up is a viable option.

Trading down however... 

[YattaOkasan]

4 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

It’s true he was bad at first, but improved with each game.  As I mentioned I’m like warm on Edmunds.  We only have so much space and he’s going to be a $14 mil. Asset.  We’ve already invested heavily defense.  We need a CB and is really the only starting hole we have on defense.

Im also cooling on edmunds for the money reason.  the improving each game is for 2020 i believe.  Last year Klein only replaced edmunds in the colts game and the Jets # 1 game.  Also agree on CB is the primary need.  To the OP i hesitate to trade up as it will cost too many top 100 picks which I think are very important to our continued success.

Edited April 13, 2022 by YattaOkasan

[2003Contenders]

While Beane and McD may have their sights on moving up in the draft, I don't think it would be for a CB. That position is pretty deep this year without a lot of separation. Honestly, there are potentially 6 guys that you could argue are worthy of going in the first round (Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner, Derek Stingley, Trent McDuffie, Andrew Booth Jr, Roger McCreary, Kaiir Elam). I highly doubt all 6 will be gone in the first 24 picks. I suppose if there is one guy that the Bills love and he starts to slide, I could see them trading up a few spots to get him -- but otherwise I doubt it.

 

Beane knows what he is doing, unlike Whaley who traded away keys picks to move up for Watkins (when we had plenty of other holes to fill) in a WR-heavy draft. I just don't see Beane doing that for a CB.

[1ManRaid]

Remember that thread suggesting we trade up to #1 in what would be the all time greatest highway robbery of a trade?  Good times.