Mel Kiper mock- Michigan DB Daxton Hill

[OldTimer1960]

33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have Tolbert worth #57 (it's 57 not 58). But agree it would be a small reach for Bell and a big reach for Metchie, Shakir, Austin.... I even personally think it is a small reach for Wan'dale. 

 

I think the Bills need an outside guy who can be explosive. If I had taken a corner at #25 and I got to #49 ahead of the Chiefs at #50 and Tolbert was still out there I'd even be willing to go up a few spots to secure him. 

Tolbert looks smooth to me, some reports suggest an issue with drops.  I have not watched enough full games to know if that criticism is warranted, but he did have a couple of drops in the two games I watched.  Not saying that disqualifies him at 57 - he is intriguing.

[OldTimer1960]

28 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

If Bills go D @25 and then play let the draft come to them in the 2nd round, that is not a good sign, imo. They need to aggressively upgrade the offense, not to fill holes, which seems to be the default setting for a lot of folks, but to increase the skill set and versatility of the offense so that it becomes more potent and dangerous and less reliant on Josh Allen making extraordinary plays. In addition, we actually need depth at WR and IOL. I think you may still get an impact WR or a TE like McBride at the top of the second round . . . we should make sure we get one. 

To get near the top of the 2nd will cost the Bills’ 2nd + 3rd + 4th.  Depends on who is available and what concerns there are (such as injuries) to determine if that is worth it.  

[NewEra]

21 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

If Bills go D @25 and then play let the draft come to them in the 2nd round, that is not a good sign, imo. They need to aggressively upgrade the offense, not to fill holes, which seems to be the default setting for a lot of folks, but to increase the skill set and versatility of the offense so that it becomes more potent and dangerous and less reliant on Josh Allen making extraordinary plays. In addition, we actually need depth at WR and IOL. I think you may still get an impact WR or a TE like McBride at the top of the second round . . . we should make sure we get one. 

 

33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have Tolbert worth #57 (it's 57 not 58). But agree it would be a small reach for Bell and a big reach for Metchie, Shakir, Austin.... I even personally think it is a small reach for Wan'dale. 

 

I think the Bills need an outside guy who can be explosive. If I had taken a corner at #25 and I got to #49 ahead of the Chiefs at #50 and Tolbert was still out there I'd even be willing to go up a few spots to secure him. 

But if we trade up, we likely won’t be able to secure Punt God in rd 3.  

 

kidding obv.  Seems like trading up from 57 should be our mo.  I don’t like tolbert as much as you (he’s a rd 3 guy imo, but I see why people like him in rd 2), but I agree 💯 that he fits the archetype of what we need.  An outside field stretcher.  

[OldTimer1960]

33 minutes ago, NewEra said:

 

But if we trade up, we likely won’t be able to secure Punt God in rd 3.  

 

kidding obv.  Seems like trading up from 57 should be our mo.  I don’t like tolbert as much as you (he’s a rd 3 guy imo, but I see why people like him in rd 2), but I agree 💯 that he fits the archetype of what we need.  An outside field stretcher.  

Is Tolbert really a field stretcher in the NFL?  I know that he made many plays deep at his lower level of competition, but unless he develops his pattern running more, he may not be able to get by NFL DBs deep.  That is, he’ll need some threat of shorter routes with good moves to juke NFL DBs, because, while he isn’t slow, he also isn’t so blazing fast that he can just run by DBs at this level.

 

Don’t get me wrong, I like him, but drops and that many of his plays are downfield leave room for concern.  I don’t think a receiver needs to run 4.3/4.4 to be a deep threat in the NFL, but I do think that they have to fool DBs some in order to do so.

[Dr. Who]

2 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

To get near the top of the 2nd will cost the Bills’ 2nd + 3rd + 4th.  Depends on who is available and what concerns there are (such as injuries) to determine if that is worth it.  

A lot will depend on how the board plays out. Maybe they only need to move up to the middle of the round or they include a veteran in the package. My preference is still to grab Jameson Williams, Olave or even Christian Watson in the first (I presume Williams would require some kind of trade up.) I surmise db is likely @25, so working through scenarios -- if you go D in the first and wait till 57, you are definitely dropping to a lower tier. I'm not cool with it, though evidently many folks are.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Is Tolbert really a field stretcher in the NFL?  I know that he made many plays deep at his lower level of competition, but unless he develops his pattern running more, he may not be able to get by NFL DBs deep.  That is, he’ll need some threat of shorter routes with good moves to juke NFL DBs, because, while he isn’t slow, he also isn’t so blazing fast that he can just run by DBs at this level.

 

Don’t get me wrong, I like him, but drops and that many of his plays are downfield leave room for concern.  I don’t think a receiver needs to run 4.3/4.4 to be a deep threat in the NFL, but I do think that they have to fool DBs some in order to do so.

His short game (or lack thereof) is why I have him as a 3rd rd pick rather than a 2nd.   I agree, there is a lot of room for improvement, but he has the physical tools to shore up his short/med routes.   I really like his deep route running, ball tracking, contested catch ability, arm length, vertical and competitiveness.  From a 2 star recruit to possible 2nd rd pick.  I love the work ethic.  
 

I hear ya, unless he improves the underneath stuff, he won’t be as effective deep.  Luckily for him, if he were drafted by us, he’d be single coverage all day and would help take the top off the defense and might be able to take some pressure off Diggs and Davis.  I think he’s a decent compliment to those 2.  Not my 1st….or 10th choice, but we could do much worse. 

[OldTimer1960]

13 minutes ago, NewEra said:

His short game (or lack thereof) is why I have him as a 3rd rd pick rather than a 2nd.   I agree, there is a lot of room for improvement, but he has the physical tools to shore up his short/med routes.   I really like his deep route running, ball tracking, contested catch ability, arm length, vertical and competitiveness.  From a 2 star recruit to possible 2nd rd pick.  I love the work ethic.  
 

I hear ya, unless he improves the underneath stuff, he won’t be as effective deep.  Luckily for him, if he were drafted by us, he’d be single coverage all day and would help take the top off the defense and might be able to take some pressure off Diggs and Davis.  I think he’s a decent compliment to those 2.  Not my 1st….or 10th choice, but we could do much worse. 

Thank you for the thorough response.  I agree that his movement skills suggest that he could improve his route running and I have read that he does have a good work-ethic.

 

I think that we would all love a really fast and quick game breaker at WR, but many of the best WRs in the league aren’t 4.3/low 4.4 guys.  I think we are out of range for the top WR prospects this year and I would not want to give up the 2nd pick to move higher in round 1.  And might be convinced to trade the 3rd to move up in the 2nd depending on the prospect, but that only gets you in the 10-15 range of round 2.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Thank you for the thorough response.  I agree that his movement skills suggest that he could improve his route running and I have read that he does have a good work-ethic.

 

I think that we would all love a really fast and quick game breaker at WR, but many of the best WRs in the league aren’t 4.3/low 4.4 guys.  I think we are out of range for the top WR prospects this year and I would not want to give up the 2nd pick to move higher in round 1.  And might be convinced to trade the 3rd to move up in the 2nd depending on the prospect, but that only gets you in the 10-15 range of round 2.

I think moving up in rd 1 would likely require our 1st next year. While I’m usually not a fan of something like that, I’d be ok with it if we could get ourselves an elite talent.  I don’t see that happening though…. More likely a trade up in rd 2 while giving up a 3rd and maybe a mid rd pick next year.  
 

Hard for me to pinpoint which position we go for in rd 1-2 because I think we’ll be signing a vet corner at some point, but it might not be til after the draft.  
 

off topic, I’m hearing that the rams are the favorite for Gilmore and Mathieu.  sheesh….   
 

[OldTimer1960]

18 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I think moving up in rd 1 would likely require our 1st next year. While I’m usually not a fan of something like that, I’d be ok with it if we could get ourselves an elite talent.  I don’t see that happening though…. More likely a trade up in rd 2 while giving up a 3rd and maybe a mid rd pick next year.  
 

Hard for me to pinpoint which position we go for in rd 1-2 because I think we’ll be signing a vet corner at some point, but it might not be til after the draft.  
 

off topic, I’m hearing that the rams are the favorite for Gilmore and Mathieu.  sheesh….   
 

Ugh, not sure how the Rams are managing cap space, but Stafford is considerably older than Allen, so smaller “good window” likely.  When their spending comes home to roost, the bottom will probably fall out for them.

 

As far as CB, I’m not sure how they fit a decent vet under the cap unless they cut or trade someone who has at least a moderate cap cost.

 

While there are really good WR prospects this year, I am confident that Wilson, London and probably Olave will be gone before 25.  Unsure what to make of Williams- ACL could rob some speed and he is a one-year producer.  I don’t need to see a 40 time to know he is very fast, but will he be after the ACL?

 

I can’t decide if I like Burks or not.  I’ve watched a few games and he has a lot of plays where he doesn’t run any sort of route - just a behind the line toss.  He shows that he can get deep and make contested catches, but he lets balls into his body sometimes and i think Allen’s bullets could ricochet off him.  Burks should be more dangerous on crossing patterns, but I did not see many of those in the 2 games I watched.

 

Really like Dotson, but a slot WR in round 1?

 

Watson has the tools, but his ascension has been extreme.  I understand why he is liked and he could be great, but I am wary.

 

Anyone at 25 isn’t going to be perfect, but maybe best to fill another spot in 1st and take advantage of the WR depth in 2nd or 3rd

[Airseven]

Dan Brugler (Athletic) now has Hill as high as #21 to NE. 

 

This might be a year for one of those "surprise" Bills picks like Hill, Cine, Lloyd, Chenal or Quay Walker. 

[John from Riverside]

So hasn’t the common logic that a corner gets moved to safety when they can’t play corner anymore

 

[Pete]

Hill over Booth all day IMO

[TheBeaneBandit]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

Hill over Booth all day IMO

Just let him focus on outside corner too. Him and White would be a great pair imo..... but Booth and White would still be pretty darn good too!

[Kaenon]

MJ Emerson is the CB I want in this draft. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

 

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

 

[PrimeTime101]

Mel gets paid to get it wrong.

[Richard Noggin]

11 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

 

 

Great play by D. Hill here, but also seems to reinforce his value in the slot, specifically. And I'm not sure he gets away with that against a top flight AFC QB.

 

I'm still waiting to encounter (not that I've actually looked lol) analysis that projects him as a boundary guy in the NFL. I see his versatility, and obviously he's athletic as heck. So he's probably a great prospect no matter what. Just not sure his most impactful NFL position is outside CB. 

[BillsFanForever19]

We don't need a "Slot Corner". We have a really good Nickel in Taron Johnson that we just paid a Long Term contract to. We need an Outside Corner. Maybe two. Could Daxton Hill do that? Maybe. But he didn't do it in College. 

 

I'm not one of you "we can't start a Rookie at CB" type of fans. If the talent is there, I have no problem starting a Rookie. But a Rookie who is playing a position in the Pro's that he didn't in College? That's a little risky for my blood. But if Beane has faith in him to do it, I would too. Though it would REALLY surprise me.

 

I suppose we could try him there and if it didn't work out, we could move him to his more natural position of Safety next season when Poyer most likely leaves and try again at CB. Though with the need at CB we have this season, it feels like quite the risk to take a projection.

Edited April 17, 2022 by BillsFanForever19

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

We don't need a "Slot Corner". We have a really good Nickel in Taron Johnson that we just paid a Long Term contract to. We need an Outside Corner. Maybe two. Could Daxton Hill do that? Maybe. But he didn't do it in College. 

 

I'm not one of you "we can't start a Rookie at CB" type of fans. If the talent is there, I have no problem starting a Rookie. But a Rookie who is playing a position in the Pro's that he didn't in College? That's a little risky for my blood. But if Beane has faith in him to do it, I would too. Though it would REALLY surprise me.

 

I suppose we could try him there and if it didn't work out, we could move him to his more natural position of Safety next season when Poyer most likely leaves and try again at CB. Though with the need at CB we have this season, it feels like quite the risk to take a projection.

Nice post.