Devin Lloyd, Nakobe Dean, and the value of modern linebackers (great article, paywall)

[Logic]

This article is behind a paywall. It's excellent, and is representative of the great stuff that the Athletic publishes regularly. If you can get one of those $1 per month trial deals, especially around draft season, I highly suggest you do it.

As for this article, I find the discussion of the ever evolving monetary and roster value of various positions fascinating, particularly linebacker. This article pertains to the Bills in three ways: it talks about the escalating prices of retaining premiere linebackers, it discusses Edmunds specifically, and it goes into detail about two top linebacker prospects that might be available to the Bills in the first round.

I'll post some snippets, but it's a long piece. 

https://theathletic.com/3244619/2022/04/12/nfl-draft-devin-lloyd-nakobe-dean/

 

The NFL draft is the perfect nexus of contextual value. Each pick requires teams to consider not just how good a prospect is, but also how valuable the player is given the position, team needs and the dollar amount attached to that pick under the rookie wage scale. As contracts balloon for cornerstone positions such as quarterback, offensive tackle, edge rusher, cornerback and wide receiver, how a team invests capital into less glamorous positions greatly affects a franchise’s trajectory.

No defensive position has been hit harder by the changing financial landscape than linebacker, once a glamorous and lucrative position to play. Stars will always be paid — the five largest linebacker contracts are still commensurate with elite role player contracts — but the threshold for what it costs to acquire starter to plus-starter talent at the second level of the defense is arguably beneath other positions that spend the majority of the game aligned between the hashes.

The current threshold for acquiring guards who can perform at a starter to plus-starter level falls around $3-5 million annually. For tight ends, expect to pay $5-7 million for reliable veteran production. Running backs, for all the depression in that market and the depth of talent available, still command $4-6 million for starter-level returns.

But at linebacker, nearly every player slated to earn north of just $4 million in 2022 has played at or near a Pro Bowl or All-Pro level in their career.

 

What does that mean, in the context of previous drafts? Unless peak Fred Warner is in the green room, it doesn’t make much sense to spend a top-15 pick on a linebacker — if a team ought to pick a linebacker in the first round at all. The first round of Dane Brugler’s latest mock draft features two linebackers, Georgia’s Nakobe Dean and Utah’s Devin Lloyd. But the last five years of first-round linebackers is a testament to the crapshoot nature of looking for franchise cornerstone-level performers in the first 32 picks. From 2017 until now, here’s how first-round linebackers have panned out:

 

• Jarrad Davis, 2017, no. 21 overall: Davis’ snaps have shrank each season since 2018, and Detroit declined his fifth-year option. After spending the 2021 season playing for the Jets, Davis is returning to Detroit on a one-year, league-minimum deal.

 

• Reuben Foster, 2017, no. 31 overall: Foster has not played an NFL snap since 2018, following legal trouble (stemming from separate arrests centered on drug and weapon offenses and a domestic dispute, respectively) and torn knee ligaments that landed him on injured reserve for two consecutive seasons. Most recently, Foster was invited to workout for the Miami Dolphins, but there has been little reporting suggesting a return to the league is imminent.

 

• Roquan Smith, 2018, no. 8 overall: Smith has started 59 of the 61 games he’s been on the active roster in Chicago, and he’s logged more than 90 solo tackles and 10+ tackles for loss in each of the last two seasons, making second team All-Pro both times. The Bears picked up Smith’s fifth-year option, which covers this coming season, and all signs indicate he will be a mainstay in Chicago’s defense through at least one more contract.

 

• Tremaine Edmunds, 2018, no. 16 overall: Edmunds has been the Bills’ starting middle linebackers in each of 61 games he’s made the active roster. Edmunds had his fifth-year options picked up by the Bills, and he made a pair of Pro Bowls (2019, 2020). I’d expect Edmunds to receive a second contract in Buffalo after the 2022 season.

 

• Leighton Vander Esch, 2018, no. 19 overall: Vander Esch has lost most of the shine from his breakout rookie campaign, when he logged 102 solo tackles and made second team All-Pro. Nearly half of his career solo tackles came in his first 16 career games, and the Dallas Cowboys declined his fifth-year option before resigning him to a one-year, $2 million dollar contract.

 

• Rashaan Evans, 2018, no. 22 overall: Evans started 50 of the 59 games while on the Titans’ active roster, but mostly middling production led to Tennessee phasing him out of an every-down starter role. The Titans declined to pick up Evans’ fifth-year option, and he’s now playing on a one-year deal with the Atlanta Falcons.

 

• Devin White, 2019, no. 5 overall: Short of Fred Warner, White’s resume stands at or near the top of the position in his first three years. Finishing just short of 100 solo tackles in 2020, and 90 in 2021, White has made an All-Pro or Pro Bowl team in each of the last two seasons. I expect White to be the next linebacker to reset the top of the market following his rookie contract.

 

• Devin Bush, 2019, no. 10 overall: 2022 is a pivotal season for Bush, after playing in just five games in 2020 and logging just 41 solo tackles and two tackles for loss in 16 games last year. Bush had a strong rookie season, but he’ll need to replicate a similar level of production to make the Pittsburgh Steelers comfortable with picking up his near-$11 million dollar fifth year option.

 

• Isaiah Simmons, 2020, no. 8 overall: Simmons certainly needed to be walked slowly into his role as the Cardinals’ leading linebacker, but year two provided much more reason for optimism than his rookie campaign. Simmons effectively doubled his tackling production and started in all 17 games in 2021, but he will need a breakout year soon to justify Arizona retaining his contract through year five.

 

• Kenneth Murray, 2020, no. 23 overall: The Chargers signed Troy Reeder this off-season after the departure of Kyzir White, which says plenty about the franchise’s internal evaluation of Murray. Given Murray logged just 337 snaps in 2021 — and one start after week 12 — it’s safe to assume that the Chargers aren’t expecting much beyond depth and special teams roles for Murray in year three.

 

• Jordyn Brooks, 2020, no. 27 overall: The NFL’s solo tackle leader in 2021, Brooks showed enough to make Seattle comfortable with letting Seahawks legend Bobby Wagner walk in the offseason. I don’t expect perennial Pro Bowls or All-Pro selections for Brooks, but another 80-plus solo tackle season will give the Texas Tech product a strong argument for the Seahawks picking up his fifth-year option.

 

• Patrick Queen, 2020, no. 28 overall: It’s difficult to evaluate (or even contextualize) the 2021 season for the Ravens, given the Baltimore’s poor injury luck. Queen’s tackle has production remained steady over two NFL seasons, but the Ravens will need him to take on a bigger role in coverage and show up more consistently in the run game in years three and four.

 

• Micah Parsons, 2021, no. 12 overall: As it currently stands, Parson is the best football player to be drafted last year, making first team All-Pro as a rookie and finishing as the runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year. Parsons logged production in the backfield consistent with a top-five pass rusher, and he only played on the line of scrimmage in obvious passing situations. Thirteen sacks and 20 tackles for loss per season is probably unsustainable, but playing for defensive coordinator Dan Quinn allows Parsons to maximize his athletic gifts.

 

• Zaven Collins, 2021, no. 16 overall: He played just 205 defensive snaps last year, but Arizona losing Jordan Hicks in free agency signals the franchise is ready to put more on the young linebacker’s shoulders. However, last season’s tape showed a linebacker who was still a half-step behind the speed of the NFL game.

 

• Jamin Davis, 2021, no. 19 overall: Davis started half of his 16 games in his rookie campaign and delivered average production. Washington drafted Davis in the hopes that his athleticism would lend itself towards a coverage-first linebacker with enough size to handle playing in the box when needed, but year one has not provided clarity as to whether that’s a long term role for the Kentucky product.

 

Making no assumptions about breakout years or a linear, upward trajectory for any of these players, just six appear to be valuable enough for a long-term second contract with the franchise that drafted them — and each of these players is a star, or close to it. A 40% hit rate isn’t too far from what you’d likely find at other positions drafted in the first round, but at least five of these players either already signed or are tracking toward playing on a “prove-it” deal for their next contract, leaving a huge delta in potential outcomes.

The top of this year’s linebacker class doesn’t do much to calm any anxiety about spending a first-round pick on a second-level defender. Dean and Lloyd are jack-of-all-trades types, essential in the modern game, but their play styles and body types aren’t all that similar, leaving some uncertainty about where the consensus may be for the two prospects.

[The article then goes into detail about Lloyd and Dean's strengths, weaknesses, and whether either player is worthy of a first round pick. Suffice it to say that Lloyd seems like a fit for what the Bills like to do, but will likely be gone by 25, while Dean doesn't really seem like a fit for the Bills defense. His teammate, Quay Walker, not mentioned in this piece, is likely more to the Bills' tastes with regard to playing style].

 

[MPL]

35 minutes ago, Logic said:

• Tremaine Edmunds, 2018, no. 16 overall: Edmunds has been the Bills’ starting middle linebackers in each of 61 games he’s made the active roster. Edmunds had his fifth-year options picked up by the Bills, and he made a pair of Pro Bowls (2019, 2020). I’d expect Edmunds to receive a second contract in Buffalo after the 2022 season.

The author has clearly never visited this website. 

Interesting piece, though. As running backs continue to be less and less valued, so to are middle linebackers. 

[billybrew1]

36 minutes ago, Logic said:

This article is behind a paywall. It's excellent, and is representative of the great stuff that the Athletic publishes regularly. If you can get one of those $1 per month trial deals, especially around draft season, I highly suggest you do it.

As for this article, I find the discussion of the ever evolving monetary and roster value of various positions fascinating, particularly linebacker. This article pertains to the Bills in three ways: it talks about the escalating prices of retaining premiere linebackers, it discusses Edmunds specifically, and it goes into detail about two top linebacker prospects that might be available to the Bills in the first round.

I'll post some snippets, but it's a long piece. 

https://theathletic.com/3244619/2022/04/12/nfl-draft-devin-lloyd-nakobe-dean/

 

The NFL draft is the perfect nexus of contextual value. Each pick requires teams to consider not just how good a prospect is, but also how valuable the player is given the position, team needs and the dollar amount attached to that pick under the rookie wage scale. As contracts balloon for cornerstone positions such as quarterback, offensive tackle, edge rusher, cornerback and wide receiver, how a team invests capital into less glamorous positions greatly affects a franchise’s trajectory.

No defensive position has been hit harder by the changing financial landscape than linebacker, once a glamorous and lucrative position to play. Stars will always be paid — the five largest linebacker contracts are still commensurate with elite role player contracts — but the threshold for what it costs to acquire starter to plus-starter talent at the second level of the defense is arguably beneath other positions that spend the majority of the game aligned between the hashes.

The current threshold for acquiring guards who can perform at a starter to plus-starter level falls around $3-5 million annually. For tight ends, expect to pay $5-7 million for reliable veteran production. Running backs, for all the depression in that market and the depth of talent available, still command $4-6 million for starter-level returns.

But at linebacker, nearly every player slated to earn north of just $4 million in 2022 has played at or near a Pro Bowl or All-Pro level in their career.

 

What does that mean, in the context of previous drafts? Unless peak Fred Warner is in the green room, it doesn’t make much sense to spend a top-15 pick on a linebacker — if a team ought to pick a linebacker in the first round at all. The first round of Dane Brugler’s latest mock draft features two linebackers, Georgia’s Nakobe Dean and Utah’s Devin Lloyd. But the last five years of first-round linebackers is a testament to the crapshoot nature of looking for franchise cornerstone-level performers in the first 32 picks. From 2017 until now, here’s how first-round linebackers have panned out:

 

• Jarrad Davis, 2017, no. 21 overall: Davis’ snaps have shrank each season since 2018, and Detroit declined his fifth-year option. After spending the 2021 season playing for the Jets, Davis is returning to Detroit on a one-year, league-minimum deal.

 

• Reuben Foster, 2017, no. 31 overall: Foster has not played an NFL snap since 2018, following legal trouble (stemming from separate arrests centered on drug and weapon offenses and a domestic dispute, respectively) and torn knee ligaments that landed him on injured reserve for two consecutive seasons. Most recently, Foster was invited to workout for the Miami Dolphins, but there has been little reporting suggesting a return to the league is imminent.

 

• Roquan Smith, 2018, no. 8 overall: Smith has started 59 of the 61 games he’s been on the active roster in Chicago, and he’s logged more than 90 solo tackles and 10+ tackles for loss in each of the last two seasons, making second team All-Pro both times. The Bears picked up Smith’s fifth-year option, which covers this coming season, and all signs indicate he will be a mainstay in Chicago’s defense through at least one more contract.

 

• Tremaine Edmunds, 2018, no. 16 overall: Edmunds has been the Bills’ starting middle linebackers in each of 61 games he’s made the active roster. Edmunds had his fifth-year options picked up by the Bills, and he made a pair of Pro Bowls (2019, 2020). I’d expect Edmunds to receive a second contract in Buffalo after the 2022 season.

 

• Leighton Vander Esch, 2018, no. 19 overall: Vander Esch has lost most of the shine from his breakout rookie campaign, when he logged 102 solo tackles and made second team All-Pro. Nearly half of his career solo tackles came in his first 16 career games, and the Dallas Cowboys declined his fifth-year option before resigning him to a one-year, $2 million dollar contract.

 

• Rashaan Evans, 2018, no. 22 overall: Evans started 50 of the 59 games while on the Titans’ active roster, but mostly middling production led to Tennessee phasing him out of an every-down starter role. The Titans declined to pick up Evans’ fifth-year option, and he’s now playing on a one-year deal with the Atlanta Falcons.

 

• Devin White, 2019, no. 5 overall: Short of Fred Warner, White’s resume stands at or near the top of the position in his first three years. Finishing just short of 100 solo tackles in 2020, and 90 in 2021, White has made an All-Pro or Pro Bowl team in each of the last two seasons. I expect White to be the next linebacker to reset the top of the market following his rookie contract.

 

• Devin Bush, 2019, no. 10 overall: 2022 is a pivotal season for Bush, after playing in just five games in 2020 and logging just 41 solo tackles and two tackles for loss in 16 games last year. Bush had a strong rookie season, but he’ll need to replicate a similar level of production to make the Pittsburgh Steelers comfortable with picking up his near-$11 million dollar fifth year option.

 

• Isaiah Simmons, 2020, no. 8 overall: Simmons certainly needed to be walked slowly into his role as the Cardinals’ leading linebacker, but year two provided much more reason for optimism than his rookie campaign. Simmons effectively doubled his tackling production and started in all 17 games in 2021, but he will need a breakout year soon to justify Arizona retaining his contract through year five.

 

• Kenneth Murray, 2020, no. 23 overall: The Chargers signed Troy Reeder this off-season after the departure of Kyzir White, which says plenty about the franchise’s internal evaluation of Murray. Given Murray logged just 337 snaps in 2021 — and one start after week 12 — it’s safe to assume that the Chargers aren’t expecting much beyond depth and special teams roles for Murray in year three.

 

• Jordyn Brooks, 2020, no. 27 overall: The NFL’s solo tackle leader in 2021, Brooks showed enough to make Seattle comfortable with letting Seahawks legend Bobby Wagner walk in the offseason. I don’t expect perennial Pro Bowls or All-Pro selections for Brooks, but another 80-plus solo tackle season will give the Texas Tech product a strong argument for the Seahawks picking up his fifth-year option.

 

• Patrick Queen, 2020, no. 28 overall: It’s difficult to evaluate (or even contextualize) the 2021 season for the Ravens, given the Baltimore’s poor injury luck. Queen’s tackle has production remained steady over two NFL seasons, but the Ravens will need him to take on a bigger role in coverage and show up more consistently in the run game in years three and four.

 

• Micah Parsons, 2021, no. 12 overall: As it currently stands, Parson is the best football player to be drafted last year, making first team All-Pro as a rookie and finishing as the runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year. Parsons logged production in the backfield consistent with a top-five pass rusher, and he only played on the line of scrimmage in obvious passing situations. Thirteen sacks and 20 tackles for loss per season is probably unsustainable, but playing for defensive coordinator Dan Quinn allows Parsons to maximize his athletic gifts.

 

• Zaven Collins, 2021, no. 16 overall: He played just 205 defensive snaps last year, but Arizona losing Jordan Hicks in free agency signals the franchise is ready to put more on the young linebacker’s shoulders. However, last season’s tape showed a linebacker who was still a half-step behind the speed of the NFL game.

 

• Jamin Davis, 2021, no. 19 overall: Davis started half of his 16 games in his rookie campaign and delivered average production. Washington drafted Davis in the hopes that his athleticism would lend itself towards a coverage-first linebacker with enough size to handle playing in the box when needed, but year one has not provided clarity as to whether that’s a long term role for the Kentucky product.

 

Making no assumptions about breakout years or a linear, upward trajectory for any of these players, just six appear to be valuable enough for a long-term second contract with the franchise that drafted them — and each of these players is a star, or close to it. A 40% hit rate isn’t too far from what you’d likely find at other positions drafted in the first round, but at least five of these players either already signed or are tracking toward playing on a “prove-it” deal for their next contract, leaving a huge delta in potential outcomes.

The top of this year’s linebacker class doesn’t do much to calm any anxiety about spending a first-round pick on a second-level defender. Dean and Lloyd are jack-of-all-trades types, essential in the modern game, but their play styles and body types aren’t all that similar, leaving some uncertainty about where the consensus may be for the two prospects.

[The article then goes into detail about Lloyd and Dean's strengths, weaknesses, and whether either player is worthy of a first round pick. Suffice it to say that Lloyd seems like a fit for what the Bills like to do, but will likely be gone by 25, while Dean doesn't really seem like a fit for the Bills defense. His teammate, Quay Walker, not mentioned in this piece, is likely more to the Bills' tastes with regard to playing style].

 

Davis and that whole Washington defense way underperformed. My guess is they don’t want to hurt anybody… They don’t want to end careers. 
plus, can’t you go over every position and find failures?

PS - I think the Bills need to spend a one to replace Tremaine effectively….perhaps a second rounder if we’re lucky…

[John from Riverside]

8 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Why?

Something something....need a whipping boy....something

[Shake_My_Head]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

• Roquan Smith, 2018, no. 8 overall: Smith has started 59 of the 61 games he’s been on the active roster in Chicago, and he’s logged more than 90 solo tackles and 10+ tackles for loss in each of the last two seasons, making second team All-Pro both times. The Bears picked up Smith’s fifth-year option, which covers this coming season, and all signs indicate he will be a mainstay in Chicago’s defense through at least one more contract.

 

• Tremaine Edmunds, 2018, no. 16 overall: Edmunds has been the Bills’ starting middle linebackers in each of 61 games he’s made the active roster. Edmunds had his fifth-year options picked up by the Bills, and he made a pair of Pro Bowls (2019, 2020). I’d expect Edmunds to receive a second contract in Buffalo after the 2022 season.

 

I absolutely loved Roquan Smith coming out in that 2018 draft, and he's been terrific so far.     

[Augie]

2 hours ago, MPL said:

The author has clearly never visited this website. 

Interesting piece, though. As running backs continue to be less and less valued, so to are middle linebackers. 

 

Some folks here want a Dick Butkus, Ray Lewis kinda run stuffing MLB, but the game has changed, as has the position. Coverage and eating space is more critical than it used to be. 

 

I don’t know what direction they will go at MLB going forward, but they have done enough to earn my trust. 

[Vickveto]

3 hours ago, Logic said:

Suffice it to say that Lloyd seems like a fit for what the Bills like to do, but will likely be gone by 25, while Dean doesn't really seem like a fit for the Bills defense. His teammate, Quay Walker, not mentioned in this piece, is likely more to the Bills' tastes with regard to playing style]

I don’t mind Walker but not at 25 which was mentioned on nfl.com a couple days ago. Second or third round I’m all for it.

Edited April 13, 2022 by Vickveto

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, Logic said:

This article is behind a paywall. It's excellent, and is representative of the great stuff that the Athletic publishes regularly. If you can get one of those $1 per month trial deals, especially around draft season, I highly suggest you do it.

As for this article, I find the discussion of the ever evolving monetary and roster value of various positions fascinating, particularly linebacker. This article pertains to the Bills in three ways: it talks about the escalating prices of retaining premiere linebackers, it discusses Edmunds specifically, and it goes into detail about two top linebacker prospects that might be available to the Bills in the first round.

I'll post some snippets, but it's a long piece. 

https://theathletic.com/3244619/2022/04/12/nfl-draft-devin-lloyd-nakobe-dean/

 

The NFL draft is the perfect nexus of contextual value. Each pick requires teams to consider not just how good a prospect is, but also how valuable the player is given the position, team needs and the dollar amount attached to that pick under the rookie wage scale. As contracts balloon for cornerstone positions such as quarterback, offensive tackle, edge rusher, cornerback and wide receiver, how a team invests capital into less glamorous positions greatly affects a franchise’s trajectory.

No defensive position has been hit harder by the changing financial landscape than linebacker, once a glamorous and lucrative position to play. Stars will always be paid — the five largest linebacker contracts are still commensurate with elite role player contracts — but the threshold for what it costs to acquire starter to plus-starter talent at the second level of the defense is arguably beneath other positions that spend the majority of the game aligned between the hashes.

The current threshold for acquiring guards who can perform at a starter to plus-starter level falls around $3-5 million annually. For tight ends, expect to pay $5-7 million for reliable veteran production. Running backs, for all the depression in that market and the depth of talent available, still command $4-6 million for starter-level returns.

But at linebacker, nearly every player slated to earn north of just $4 million in 2022 has played at or near a Pro Bowl or All-Pro level in their career.

 

What does that mean, in the context of previous drafts? Unless peak Fred Warner is in the green room, it doesn’t make much sense to spend a top-15 pick on a linebacker — if a team ought to pick a linebacker in the first round at all. The first round of Dane Brugler’s latest mock draft features two linebackers, Georgia’s Nakobe Dean and Utah’s Devin Lloyd. But the last five years of first-round linebackers is a testament to the crapshoot nature of looking for franchise cornerstone-level performers in the first 32 picks. From 2017 until now, here’s how first-round linebackers have panned out:

 

• Jarrad Davis, 2017, no. 21 overall: Davis’ snaps have shrank each season since 2018, and Detroit declined his fifth-year option. After spending the 2021 season playing for the Jets, Davis is returning to Detroit on a one-year, league-minimum deal.

 

• Reuben Foster, 2017, no. 31 overall: Foster has not played an NFL snap since 2018, following legal trouble (stemming from separate arrests centered on drug and weapon offenses and a domestic dispute, respectively) and torn knee ligaments that landed him on injured reserve for two consecutive seasons. Most recently, Foster was invited to workout for the Miami Dolphins, but there has been little reporting suggesting a return to the league is imminent.

 

• Roquan Smith, 2018, no. 8 overall: Smith has started 59 of the 61 games he’s been on the active roster in Chicago, and he’s logged more than 90 solo tackles and 10+ tackles for loss in each of the last two seasons, making second team All-Pro both times. The Bears picked up Smith’s fifth-year option, which covers this coming season, and all signs indicate he will be a mainstay in Chicago’s defense through at least one more contract.

 

• Tremaine Edmunds, 2018, no. 16 overall: Edmunds has been the Bills’ starting middle linebackers in each of 61 games he’s made the active roster. Edmunds had his fifth-year options picked up by the Bills, and he made a pair of Pro Bowls (2019, 2020). I’d expect Edmunds to receive a second contract in Buffalo after the 2022 season.

 

• Leighton Vander Esch, 2018, no. 19 overall: Vander Esch has lost most of the shine from his breakout rookie campaign, when he logged 102 solo tackles and made second team All-Pro. Nearly half of his career solo tackles came in his first 16 career games, and the Dallas Cowboys declined his fifth-year option before resigning him to a one-year, $2 million dollar contract.

 

• Rashaan Evans, 2018, no. 22 overall: Evans started 50 of the 59 games while on the Titans’ active roster, but mostly middling production led to Tennessee phasing him out of an every-down starter role. The Titans declined to pick up Evans’ fifth-year option, and he’s now playing on a one-year deal with the Atlanta Falcons.

 

• Devin White, 2019, no. 5 overall: Short of Fred Warner, White’s resume stands at or near the top of the position in his first three years. Finishing just short of 100 solo tackles in 2020, and 90 in 2021, White has made an All-Pro or Pro Bowl team in each of the last two seasons. I expect White to be the next linebacker to reset the top of the market following his rookie contract.

 

• Devin Bush, 2019, no. 10 overall: 2022 is a pivotal season for Bush, after playing in just five games in 2020 and logging just 41 solo tackles and two tackles for loss in 16 games last year. Bush had a strong rookie season, but he’ll need to replicate a similar level of production to make the Pittsburgh Steelers comfortable with picking up his near-$11 million dollar fifth year option.

 

• Isaiah Simmons, 2020, no. 8 overall: Simmons certainly needed to be walked slowly into his role as the Cardinals’ leading linebacker, but year two provided much more reason for optimism than his rookie campaign. Simmons effectively doubled his tackling production and started in all 17 games in 2021, but he will need a breakout year soon to justify Arizona retaining his contract through year five.

 

• Kenneth Murray, 2020, no. 23 overall: The Chargers signed Troy Reeder this off-season after the departure of Kyzir White, which says plenty about the franchise’s internal evaluation of Murray. Given Murray logged just 337 snaps in 2021 — and one start after week 12 — it’s safe to assume that the Chargers aren’t expecting much beyond depth and special teams roles for Murray in year three.

 

• Jordyn Brooks, 2020, no. 27 overall: The NFL’s solo tackle leader in 2021, Brooks showed enough to make Seattle comfortable with letting Seahawks legend Bobby Wagner walk in the offseason. I don’t expect perennial Pro Bowls or All-Pro selections for Brooks, but another 80-plus solo tackle season will give the Texas Tech product a strong argument for the Seahawks picking up his fifth-year option.

 

• Patrick Queen, 2020, no. 28 overall: It’s difficult to evaluate (or even contextualize) the 2021 season for the Ravens, given the Baltimore’s poor injury luck. Queen’s tackle has production remained steady over two NFL seasons, but the Ravens will need him to take on a bigger role in coverage and show up more consistently in the run game in years three and four.

 

• Micah Parsons, 2021, no. 12 overall: As it currently stands, Parson is the best football player to be drafted last year, making first team All-Pro as a rookie and finishing as the runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year. Parsons logged production in the backfield consistent with a top-five pass rusher, and he only played on the line of scrimmage in obvious passing situations. Thirteen sacks and 20 tackles for loss per season is probably unsustainable, but playing for defensive coordinator Dan Quinn allows Parsons to maximize his athletic gifts.

 

• Zaven Collins, 2021, no. 16 overall: He played just 205 defensive snaps last year, but Arizona losing Jordan Hicks in free agency signals the franchise is ready to put more on the young linebacker’s shoulders. However, last season’s tape showed a linebacker who was still a half-step behind the speed of the NFL game.

 

• Jamin Davis, 2021, no. 19 overall: Davis started half of his 16 games in his rookie campaign and delivered average production. Washington drafted Davis in the hopes that his athleticism would lend itself towards a coverage-first linebacker with enough size to handle playing in the box when needed, but year one has not provided clarity as to whether that’s a long term role for the Kentucky product.

 

Making no assumptions about breakout years or a linear, upward trajectory for any of these players, just six appear to be valuable enough for a long-term second contract with the franchise that drafted them — and each of these players is a star, or close to it. A 40% hit rate isn’t too far from what you’d likely find at other positions drafted in the first round, but at least five of these players either already signed or are tracking toward playing on a “prove-it” deal for their next contract, leaving a huge delta in potential outcomes.

The top of this year’s linebacker class doesn’t do much to calm any anxiety about spending a first-round pick on a second-level defender. Dean and Lloyd are jack-of-all-trades types, essential in the modern game, but their play styles and body types aren’t all that similar, leaving some uncertainty about where the consensus may be for the two prospects.

[The article then goes into detail about Lloyd and Dean's strengths, weaknesses, and whether either player is worthy of a first round pick. Suffice it to say that Lloyd seems like a fit for what the Bills like to do, but will likely be gone by 25, while Dean doesn't really seem like a fit for the Bills defense. His teammate, Quay Walker, not mentioned in this piece, is likely more to the Bills' tastes with regard to playing style].

 

I mean this is hilarious. He says it 40%, similar to every 1st round pick, then judging if the second year players are going to justify fifth year options?

 

lmao, what an analysis that is a complete waste of time when his own numbers flaunt his conclusion. 
 

Also hilarious to include a dude out of football for off the field concerns. I can’t wait for the “first round WR’s are risky” article from the Atlantic because Henry Ruggs killed someone.

Edited April 13, 2022 by FireChans

[Logic]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

I mean this is hilarious. He says it 40%, similar to every 1st round pick, then judging if the second year players are going to justify fifth year options?

 

lmao, what an analysis that is a complete waste of time when his own numbers flaunt his conclusion. 

Ok.

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, Logic said:

Ok.

Are there any more Diamond in the rough articles from this guy?

 

”why it doesn’t make sense to draft a QB high in the first, exhibit A: Tom Brady.”

[Rhode Island Red]

Thanks OP, nice to get the heads up on good reads. I do have an Athletic subscription, but like all things media here, I lag behind you forward scouts…FWIW, if anyone is on the fence, get the subscription and ask questions later.

 

i, for one, would not have recalled that four LBs were taken in Round One of the 2018 draft, much less all their names and credentials since.

 

FireChans: Perhaps you’ve found a statistical anomaly worthy of mention, maybe even further discussion, but clearly you can’t resist your Generation X, Z, whatever inclination to be hopelessly snarky. C’mon, man….

 

 

[Logic]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Are there any more Diamond in the rough articles from this guy?

 

”why it doesn’t make sense to draft a QB high in the first, exhibit A: Tom Brady.”

I take it the author is off your Christmas card list?

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

I mean this is hilarious. He says it 40%, similar to every 1st round pick, then judging if the second year players are going to justify fifth year options?

 

lmao, what an analysis that is a complete waste of time when his own numbers flaunt his conclusion. 
 

Also hilarious to include a dude out of football for off the field concerns. I can’t wait for the “first round WR’s are risky” article from the Atlantic because Henry Ruggs killed someone.

 

 

Wanna see something hilarious? "His own numbers flaunt his conclusion." Now that's hilarious.

 

It's a terrific article, one of many there that make me happy I pay for The Athletic.

[colin]

good data, i kinda think you only have to spend really top picks on qbs (because everyone needs one so overpaying isn't that bad) and pass rushers (because you need a crazy combo of skill and insane attributes).  im a bit less sure, but i think the same might apply to CBs too.

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, colin said:

good data, i kinda think you only have to spend really top picks on qbs (because everyone needs one so overpaying isn't that bad) and pass rushers (because you need a crazy combo of skill and insane attributes).  im a bit less sure, but i think the same might apply to CBs too.

You should absolute be spending first round picks on the highest value positions (aka positions you will 100% pay if they become Pro Bowlers). That includes QB, EDGE/pass rusher, LT, CB, WR.

 

It's why first rounders on safeties, LB's, OGs is a poor long term strategy even if the pick hits.

 

However, this article doesn't show that, at all. It tries to make a somewhat valid point but doesn't have the legs to do so.

 

Hilariously enough:

17 hours ago, Logic said:

 

But at linebacker, nearly every player slated to earn north of just $4 million in 2022 has played at or near a Pro Bowl or All-Pro level in their career.

This is completely wrong.  21 LB's have a cap hit over $4M in 22. 4 LB's with less than $4M cap hit are on rookie deals.  Goes to show you why he showed the top 5 players in a graphic (not informative at all and unrelated to his point) instead of the actual data of the position .

 

17 hours ago, Logic said:

A 40% hit rate isn’t too far from what you’d likely find at other positions drafted in the first round

 

17 hours ago, Logic said:

if a team ought to pick a linebacker in the first round at all

This make ZERO sense.  He basically went through all the players that may not justify draft position, then said the percentage is about the same as EVERY OTHER POSITION. lmao.  lol. I would barely pay 50 cents for this article.

 

Article sucks. Not worth a dollar. 

[Logic]

35 minutes ago, FireChans said:

You should absolute be spending first round picks on the highest value positions (aka positions you will 100% pay if they become Pro Bowlers). That includes QB, EDGE/pass rusher, LT, CB, WR.

 

It's why first rounders on safeties, LB's, OGs is a poor long term strategy even if the pick hits.

 

However, this article doesn't show that, at all. It tries to make a somewhat valid point but doesn't have the legs to do so.

 

Hilariously enough:

This is completely wrong.  21 LB's have a cap hit over $4M in 22. 4 LB's with less than $4M cap hit are on rookie deals.  Goes to show you why he showed the top 5 players in a graphic (not informative at all and unrelated to his point) instead of the actual data of the position .

 

 

This make ZERO sense.  He basically went through all the players that may not justify draft position, then said the percentage is about the same as EVERY OTHER POSITION. lmao.  lol. I would barely pay 50 cents for this article.

 

Article sucks. Not worth a dollar. 

 

I’m starting to think this is about more than just the article. 
 

Is everything ok? Anything you’d like to talk about? You’re in a safe space.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Edmunds is a defensive captain of the #1 defense in the NFL. But people think they’re #1 only because of who we faced. But no one else on the defense is criticized for facing a weak offensive schedule but Edmunds.

 

How a biased mind works.

[FireChans]

10 minutes ago, Logic said:

 

I’m starting to think this is about more than just the article. 
 

Is everything ok? Anything you’d like to talk about? You’re in a safe space.

I’ve probably made my point. I was really hoping it was gonna be good Bc it was behind a paywall. Instead we got dressed up dime store analysis.

[mushypeaches]

45 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Edmunds is a defensive captain of the #1 defense in the NFL. But people think they’re #1 only because of who we faced. But no one else on the defense is criticized for facing a weak offensive schedule but Edmunds.

 

How a biased mind works.

 

Noooooo... it's just that for a large number of fans, Edmunds doesn't pass the eye test.  

 

Yes, he's the captain of the defense, signal caller, etc.  But the man just DOES NOT MAKE PLAYS.  I can't recall a single game changing play that he's made in the last 4 years.  NONE

 

But yes, let's give him a handsome new contract because he has all the physical attributes, young, still growing, blah blah blah

 

MLB is not a premium position in this league and I don't want Beane and the Bills overpaying for replaceable talent

[Rico]

So, SO glad we didn’t draft Howdy Doody Esch. 1 year, $2M.