#Bills Draft Guide ==> Beane & McDermott's Draft Tendencies

[Watching since 1964]

Not sure if this has been posted already…

 

Here’s the vid Joe Marino did on this topic last week…

 

 

Edited April 10, 2022 by RockpileSurvivor

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

I've got to wonder about the ACC tendency and whether or not it's predictive...

 

Is it just a statistical fluke?  (The sample size isn't huge).

 

Do they favor the ACC for some reason?  Do they believe it produces more NFL caliber athletes?

 

Does our scout for the ACC have more pull at OBD?  Is he more persuasive?  

 

 

I have another theory..... it could be in part at least that the top athletes from the SEC tend to go early in the 1st round. The Bills have generally been picking later. The top SEC guys have often gone by then. And of course the two early picks we have made in this regime just happened not to be SEC - Josh Allen out of the Mountain West and Ed Oliver out of the ACC. 

 

[hmsmystic]

1 hour ago, RockpileSurvivor said:

Not sure if this has been posted already…

 

Here’s the vid Joe Marino did on this topic last week…

 

 

Thanks for posting the source- all of the OPs post not "much" was lifted from Joe Marino's locked on Bills podcast.  Wanted to make sure it gets a plug hear- I listend to while walking literally daily.  He really does a great job keeping us out of towners informed.

[Shake_My_Head]

14 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Also could be that the last 3 years, (upcoming one of the 3) they are drafting low, so the big names more SEC types are gone when the Bills pick so take guys under the radar which could be the way the ACC is viewed. 

 

I agree with this thought.  The SEC is the premier conference where all the "shiny" prospects (deservedly, or sometimes not) play.   The Bills seem less susceptible to the "I've heard of him!" buzz that often elevates prospects from football factory SEC schools in the pre-draft runup (hello Marrcell Dareus).   

[Just Joshin']

4 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I've got to wonder about the ACC tendency and whether or not it's predictive...

 

Is it just a statistical fluke?  (The sample size isn't huge).

 

Do they favor the ACC for some reason?  Do they believe it produces more NFL caliber athletes?

 

Does our scout for the ACC have more pull at OBD?  Is he more persuasive?  

 

 

 

 

It may be a bit of a moneyball thing.........SEC players aare assumed to be the best and play the toughest competition so teams are biased to the SEC when drafting.  Maybe Beane see some value in under rated ACC players as a result.  As others have said, the small sample size makes it more difficult to trend.

[fergie's ire]

They drafted some guy from the Mountain West?!!  What were they thinking.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, Shake_My_Head said:

 

I agree with this thought.  The SEC is the premier conference where all the "shiny" prospects (deservedly, or sometimes not) play.   The Bills seem less susceptible to the "I've heard of him!" buzz that often elevates prospects from football factory SEC schools in the pre-draft runup (hello Marrcell Dareus).   

 

Yeah always felt J Allen playing at Wyoming is more impressive than Tua playing at Bama

 

[glazeduck]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have another theory..... it could be in part at least that the top athletes from the SEC tend to go early in the 1st round. The Bills have generally been picking later. The top SEC guys have often gone by then. And of course the two early picks we have made in this regime just happened not to be SEC - Josh Allen out of the Mountain West and Ed Oliver out of the ACC. 

 

Literally came here to post almost word-for-word the same comment -- add Tremaine Edmunds to that list of non-SEC guys we prioritized.

 

ALSO also, the ACC probably has the 2nd-best athletes after the SEC, with many of them also coming from the same(ish) area (Rousseau/Jaquan are from FL, Edmunds/Basham are from VA).

 

To echo Gunner's point, it's pretty likely that we would prioritize SEC athletes if the right one(s) were there when we were drafting (see Tredavious...)

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 hours ago, Allen2Diggs said:

Andrew Booth checks all of those boxes except he missed the combine due to injury. 

 

Did he "miss" the combine or did he just not perform during the drills?  Because I think part of the reason the Bills are so set on selecting players who participated in the combine, is that they value the chance to see how they interact with the press and other players, and also to interview them in more depth than the Senior Bowl format allows.

 

17 hours ago, intimidatortj said:

Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott collaborate on the Draft.  As they should.

Below is a quick overview of "McBeane"'s draft tendencies.  Much of this I lifted from Joe Marino of TheDraftNetwork. Thanks Joe.

(....)

B) Brandon Beane has traded down only once while in Buffalo.   From the 6th round, down into the 7th.

While McBeane has traded up numerous times.   TENDENCY = trade up

 

If you're considering McDermott and Beane, collectively, and you're considering 37 picks, then you're including 2017.

That means you're overlooking the obvious "Trade down" elephant in the room: the 2017 trade with Kansas City that resulted in an extra 1st round pick in 2018 and the selection of Tre' White at 27 in 2017.

 

[wjag]

So that means out of these guys

 

RB James Cook Georgia 

OT Nicholas Petite-Frere Ohio State

TE Cade Otten Washington

RB Isaiah Spiller Texas A&M

TE Isaiah Likely Coastal Carolina

SAF Nick Cross Maryland 

SAF Lewis Cine Georgia 

CB Andrew Booth Clemson

CB Martin Emerson Miss State

OL Sean Rhyan UCLA 

RB Kevin Marks Buffalo(Doesn’t count)

 

 

Andrew Booth is CB2 at pick number 25.  

[intimidatortj]

15 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Great work, thank you.

 

In the other thread it was mentioned that in the last two years the Bills have only drafted one player who was in their Top 30 visits. I'm not sure if that is accurate but it definitely doesn't align with your point F).

COVID cancelled the 30 Pre-Draft Visits the last 2 years....so you are right, there wasn't any correlation. 

 

But historically 3-4 either Pre-Draft Visits OR private workouts turn out to be draft picks.    Why not more?

a)  They may bring in 7-8 players that are 1st round draft picks.  They may bring in 7-8 players that are 2nd round prospects.

So out of those 14-16 players, they can only draft 2 of them.  That is all the picks they have.

b)  A number of the Pre-Draft visits get drafted before the Bills get to put in their selection, so they miss out on those.

c)  Some of the Pre-Draft visitors don't do well in the "interview" or "workout" and the Bills decide to not draft them.

 

Overall, very generally, Pre-Draft visits will indicate some leanings.   They don't do all these visits and due diligence for no reason.   If they bring in 4-5 tight ends, figure there is a good chance they will draft a tight end, for example.   

 

Lastly, Private Workouts are very different than a 30 Pre-Draft visit.   A private workout is conducted at the prospect's college campus.  Coaches will travel there and put them through drills.  I know Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary and Cody Ford had private workouts with the Bills, but not a Pre-Draft Visit. 

1 hour ago, wjag said:

So that means out of these guys

 

RB James Cook Georgia 

OT Nicholas Petite-Frere Ohio State

TE Cade Otten Washington

RB Isaiah Spiller Texas A&M

TE Isaiah Likely Coastal Carolina

SAF Nick Cross Maryland 

SAF Lewis Cine Georgia 

CB Andrew Booth Clemson

CB Martin Emerson Miss State

OL Sean Rhyan UCLA 

RB Kevin Marks Buffalo(Doesn’t count)

 

 

Andrew Booth is CB2 at pick number 25.  

A lot of dots point towards Andrew Booth...if he is still on the board.

[intimidatortj]

12 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

 

First of all thanks for the work and good discussion topic. My two general comments:

1. Sample size is too small to draw any conclusions.

2. Most of things you listed are only relevant if we know league-wide numbers.  

 

Hey No-Matter-What,

 

Appreciate the feedback.   Two quick comments. 

37 draft picks is a pretty big sample size, when analyzing Beane/McDermott tendencies.

It isn't like we can wait for them both to be with the Bills for 20 years to take a stab at their tells. 

 

2nd, league-wide numbers.  I don't have time to grind all the numbers across the league, but I believe Bill Belicheat has drafted 14 SEC players in the last 5 drafts while the Bills drafted only 4.  Also I noticed Belicheat drafted 4 Michigan players, and the Bills none.  There are definitely differences from team to team.  

 

And we know out of 37 draft picks, 12 out of the Bills picks were from the ACC and only 1 is from the Mountain West, I conclude that while it is not an absolute, is a tendency. 

 

So, if Beane drafts a Mountain West guy in the 1st round this year, I will take any and all bets that he will draft an ACC prospect next before he drafts another Mountain West guy.  I could lose that bet, but I like my odds.

 

Fun facts to keep in mind.  Go Bills.

 

 

 

 

[KGun12TD]

22 hours ago, intimidatortj said:

Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott collaborate on the Draft.  As they should.

Below is a quick overview of "McBeane"'s draft tendencies.  Much of this I lifted from Joe Marino of TheDraftNetwork. Thanks Joe.

 

NOTE  These are tendencies, not absolutes, and not necessarily about the 1st round. 

 

A)  Since McBeane has been in Buffalo, they have made 37 draft picks.  

12 of them were players from the ACC.  12.   TENDENCY = ACC

5 from the AAC (Houston, Cinncy, UCF...)

4 from FCS schools (Weber St, Jacksonville St...)

4 SEC (4 out of 37 is a low % for the NFL)

3 PAC 12

2 BIG 12

2 BIG 10

1 Conference USA

1 Sunbelt

1 Mountain West

 

B) Brandon Beane has traded down only once while in Buffalo.   From the 6th round, down into the 7th.
While McBeane has traded up numerous times.   TENDENCY = trade up

 

C) Senior Bowl.   20 of the 37 picks played in the Senior Bowl   TENDENCY = Senior Bowl players

 

D) Combine. 36 out of 37 draft picks were combine participants.   TENDENCY = not at the combine? not likely

 

E) 6 of the 1st & 2nd round picks have been "Premier Positions", i.e. QB, DL, OT,  TENDENCY = Rd 1 & 2 Premier Positions
They don't prioritize positions like Running Back, Tight End, Center, etc in the first 2 rounds.

 

F) Pre-Draft Visits (when a prospect comes to Buffalo OR the Bills go to their college for a private workout).
A large % of draft picks have been Pre-Draft Visitors.  TENDENCY = Pre-Draft Visitors

IN Summary.  If your favorite prospect played in the Senior Bowl, was invited to the Combine, is from the ACC and is a Pre-Draft Visitor, you are probably in luck!
Lastly, sometimes the reason the Bills don't draft a prospect is because another team ahead of Buffalo drafts him first.

Wow! Impressive…thank you for this.

[intimidatortj]

5 hours ago, fergie's ire said:

They drafted some guy from the Mountain West?!!  What were they thinking.

I know nuts, right?

 

Hey they could do it again this year (LB Chad Muma or TE Trey McBride)!

[intimidatortj]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Did he "miss" the combine or did he just not perform during the drills?  Because I think part of the reason the Bills are so set on selecting players who participated in the combine, is that they value the chance to see how they interact with the press and other players, and also to interview them in more depth than the Senior Bowl format allows.

Projected 1st round picks can get a pass by teams if they can't participate in some or all of the physical drills at the Combine.....they are projected 1st rounders for a reason.   They have put up great game film.    Like you indicate, a lot of the combine is about the interactions (and the medicals of course).

 

I believe, mostly assuming, Booth missed drills at the combine because of his injury.   He may have done all the meetings.

 

Either way, if he is on the board at 25, the Bills have to give him hard consideration.

 

[longtimebillsfan]

On 4/9/2022 at 5:27 PM, intimidatortj said:

Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott collaborate on the Draft.  As they should.

Below is a quick overview of "McBeane"'s draft tendencies.  Much of this I lifted from Joe Marino of TheDraftNetwork. Thanks Joe.

 

NOTE  These are tendencies, not absolutes, and not necessarily about the 1st round. 

 

A)  Since McBeane has been in Buffalo, they have made 37 draft picks.  

12 of them were players from the ACC.  12.   TENDENCY = ACC

5 from the AAC (Houston, Cinncy, UCF...)

4 from FCS schools (Weber St, Jacksonville St...)

4 SEC (4 out of 37 is a low % for the NFL)

3 PAC 12

2 BIG 12

2 BIG 10

1 Conference USA

1 Sunbelt

1 Mountain West

 

B) Brandon Beane has traded down only once while in Buffalo.   From the 6th round, down into the 7th.
While McBeane has traded up numerous times.   TENDENCY = trade up

 

C) Senior Bowl.   20 of the 37 picks played in the Senior Bowl   TENDENCY = Senior Bowl players

 

D) Combine. 36 out of 37 draft picks were combine participants.   TENDENCY = not at the combine? not likely

 

E) 6 of the 1st & 2nd round picks have been "Premier Positions", i.e. QB, DL, OT,  TENDENCY = Rd 1 & 2 Premier Positions
They don't prioritize positions like Running Back, Tight End, Center, etc in the first 2 rounds.

 

F) Pre-Draft Visits (when a prospect comes to Buffalo OR the Bills go to their college for a private workout).
A large % of draft picks have been Pre-Draft Visitors.  TENDENCY = Pre-Draft Visitors

IN Summary.  If your favorite prospect played in the Senior Bowl, was invited to the Combine, is from the ACC and is a Pre-Draft Visitor, you are probably in luck!
Lastly, sometimes the reason the Bills don't draft a prospect is because another team ahead of Buffalo drafts him first.

Nice job.  Very interesting. 

 

Thank you.

Edited April 11, 2022 by longtimebillsfan

[intimidatortj]

On 4/9/2022 at 10:17 PM, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Another tendency I think Beane has is to draft on potential, guys with high ceilings.  I'm sure all 32 teams would say they do the same, but seems the Bills have gone out on that limb further, sometimes with success, sometimes without.  Allen certainly fits that bill, but others too like our favorite whipping boy Edmunds.   He was very young and felt he'd have alot of upside, hasn't yet worked out, but seems they like that type of player.  Last year they drafted both Groot and Brown, two guys who hadn't played the year prior in college.  That's kind of a gutsy move to do that IMO.

 

As far as the ACC trend, couple thoughts on that.  Not sure how much scouts rotate, but could mean the scout that covers the ACC does a better job of making the players he's looked at more appealing.  That's not necessarily a good thing if true, but human nature is what it is.  Also could be that the last 3 years, (upcoming one of the 3) they are drafting low, so the big names more SEC types are gone when the Bills pick so take guys under the radar which could be the way the ACC is viewed. 

 

I also think players in the SEC are so much more surrounded with talent that it makes everyone look better.  Surprising that the water boy at Alabama isn't drafted.  The SEC has the most players in the NFL which isn't surprising, but I couldn't find any stats on what conference has the most players with 5 or more years experience.  My thought was the SEC gets them drafted, but do they last in the league?

The stat of picking ACC players over SEC players IMO doesn't really have much to do with the 1st round.

Alabama players, for example, get drafted in all 7 rounds.   Ditto Georgia and Florida players.

 

I don't know why more ACC players.  Culture fits?  Just a fluke?  A regional thing?   The Bills sure don't draft many players from the Western part of the US.