#Bills Draft Guide ==> Beane & McDermott's Draft Tendencies

[intimidatortj]

Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott collaborate on the Draft.  As they should.

Below is a quick overview of "McBeane"'s draft tendencies.  Much of this I lifted from Joe Marino of TheDraftNetwork. Thanks Joe.

 

NOTE  These are tendencies, not absolutes, and not necessarily about the 1st round. 

 

A)  Since McBeane has been in Buffalo, they have made 37 draft picks.  

12 of them were players from the ACC.  12.   TENDENCY = ACC

5 from the AAC (Houston, Cinncy, UCF...)

4 from FCS schools (Weber St, Jacksonville St...)

4 SEC (4 out of 37 is a low % for the NFL)

3 PAC 12

2 BIG 12

2 BIG 10

1 Conference USA

1 Sunbelt

1 Mountain West

 

B) Brandon Beane has traded down only once while in Buffalo.   From the 6th round, down into the 7th.
While McBeane has traded up numerous times.   TENDENCY = trade up

 

C) Senior Bowl.   20 of the 37 picks played in the Senior Bowl   TENDENCY = Senior Bowl players

 

D) Combine. 36 out of 37 draft picks were combine participants.   TENDENCY = not at the combine? not likely

 

E) 6 of the 1st & 2nd round picks have been "Premier Positions", i.e. QB, DL, OT,  TENDENCY = Rd 1 & 2 Premier Positions
They don't prioritize positions like Running Back, Tight End, Center, etc in the first 2 rounds.

 

F) Pre-Draft Visits (when a prospect comes to Buffalo OR the Bills go to their college for a private workout).
A large % of draft picks have been Pre-Draft Visitors.  TENDENCY = Pre-Draft Visitors

IN Summary.  If your favorite prospect played in the Senior Bowl, was invited to the Combine, is from the ACC and is a Pre-Draft Visitor, you are probably in luck!
Lastly, sometimes the reason the Bills don't draft a prospect is because another team ahead of Buffalo drafts him first.

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

Andrew Booth checks all of those boxes except he missed the combine due to injury. 

[Green Lightning]

Nice primer. Thanks for the effort.

[billybrew1]

I think (C) played in the senior bowl is a pretty outstanding stat. Maybe every team has a similar stat, IDK? I’m guessing…

It is weird that we favor ACC over SEC do much…

 

Im jonesing for an injured player this year… I say sign Gilmore…. Draft Ojabo or Jameson at 25… We will never again get a shot at that kind of talent as long as JA is ur QB, we need to act!

 

Sign Stephon.

Draft Ojabo.

Best OL or DL in the second. Never forget the lines.

Best CB in the third.

BPA the rest of the way….depending on who we get Ojabo or Jameson…..

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Another tendency I think Beane has is to draft on potential, guys with high ceilings.  I'm sure all 32 teams would say they do the same, but seems the Bills have gone out on that limb further, sometimes with success, sometimes without.  Allen certainly fits that bill, but others too like our favorite whipping boy Edmunds.   He was very young and felt he'd have alot of upside, hasn't yet worked out, but seems they like that type of player.  Last year they drafted both Groot and Brown, two guys who hadn't played the year prior in college.  That's kind of a gutsy move to do that IMO.

 

As far as the ACC trend, couple thoughts on that.  Not sure how much scouts rotate, but could mean the scout that covers the ACC does a better job of making the players he's looked at more appealing.  That's not necessarily a good thing if true, but human nature is what it is.  Also could be that the last 3 years, (upcoming one of the 3) they are drafting low, so the big names more SEC types are gone when the Bills pick so take guys under the radar which could be the way the ACC is viewed. 

 

I also think players in the SEC are so much more surrounded with talent that it makes everyone look better.  Surprising that the water boy at Alabama isn't drafted.  The SEC has the most players in the NFL which isn't surprising, but I couldn't find any stats on what conference has the most players with 5 or more years experience.  My thought was the SEC gets them drafted, but do they last in the league?

[Ethan in Cleveland]

16 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Another tendency I think Beane has is to draft on potential, guys with high ceilings.  I'm sure all 32 teams would say they do the same, but seems the Bills have gone out on that limb further, sometimes with success, sometimes without.  Allen certainly fits that bill, but others too like our favorite whipping boy Edmunds.   He was very young and felt he'd have alot of upside, hasn't yet worked out, but seems they like that type of player.  Last year they drafted both Groot and Brown, two guys who hadn't played the year prior in college.  That's kind of a gutsy move to do that IMO.

 

As far as the ACC trend, couple thoughts on that.  Not sure how much scouts rotate, but could mean the scout that covers the ACC does a better job of making the players he's looked at more appealing.  That's not necessarily a good thing if true, but human nature is what it is.  Also could be that the last 3 years, (upcoming one of the 3) they are drafting low, so the big names more SEC types are gone when the Bills pick so take guys under the radar which could be the way the ACC is viewed. 

 

I also think players in the SEC are so much more surrounded with talent that it makes everyone look better.  Surprising that the water boy at Alabama isn't drafted.  The SEC has the most players in the NFL which isn't surprising, but I couldn't find any stats on what conference has the most players with 5 or more years experience.  My thought was the SEC gets them drafted, but do they last in the league?

Interesting thought. To extrapolate further McD seems comfortable sitting guys for long stretches until they are ready to play. So it seems to fit your narrative that maybe they look for guys that have more upside that has not been fully seen yet. 

The counter to this thought would be Epenesa who looks like he peaked a long time ago.

[RyanC883]

2 hours ago, billybrew1 said:

I think (C) played in the senior bowl is a pretty outstanding stat. Maybe every team has a similar stat, IDK? I’m guessing…

It is weird that we favor ACC over SEC do much…

 

Im jonesing for an injured player this year… I say sign Gilmore…. Draft Ojabo or Jameson at 25… We will never again get a shot at that kind of talent as long as JA is ur QB, we need to act!

 

Sign Stephon.

Draft Ojabo.

Best OL or DL in the second. Never forget the lines.

Best CB in the third.

BPA the rest of the way….depending on who we get Ojabo or Jameson…..

 

 

I'm not opposed to Ojabo if he checks out medically.  Never saw him play, but if he is a legit day 1 player minus the injury I have no issues there.  Jameson worries me as a bit of a 1 year wonder from what I've read.  I think CB at 25 looks increasingly unlikely unless we reach, the highest ranked guys seem to be gone by then in most mocks.  

[Logic]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Another tendency I think Beane has is to draft on potential, guys with high ceilings.  I'm sure all 32 teams would say they do the same, but seems the Bills have gone out on that limb further, sometimes with success, sometimes without.  Allen certainly fits that bill, but others too like our favorite whipping boy Edmunds.   He was very young and felt he'd have alot of upside, hasn't yet worked out, but seems they like that type of player.  Last year they drafted both Groot and Brown, two guys who hadn't played the year prior in college.  That's kind of a gutsy move to do that IMO.

 

As far as the ACC trend, couple thoughts on that.  Not sure how much scouts rotate, but could mean the scout that covers the ACC does a better job of making the players he's looked at more appealing.  That's not necessarily a good thing if true, but human nature is what it is.  Also could be that the last 3 years, (upcoming one of the 3) they are drafting low, so the big names more SEC types are gone when the Bills pick so take guys under the radar which could be the way the ACC is viewed. 

 

I also think players in the SEC are so much more surrounded with talent that it makes everyone look better.  Surprising that the water boy at Alabama isn't drafted.  The SEC has the most players in the NFL which isn't surprising, but I couldn't find any stats on what conference has the most players with 5 or more years experience.  My thought was the SEC gets them drafted, but do they last in the league?

 

 

[Sierra Foothills]

4 hours ago, intimidatortj said:

Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott collaborate on the Draft.  As they should.

Below is a quick overview of "McBeane"'s draft tendencies.  Much of this I lifted from Joe Marino of TheDraftNetwork. Thanks Joe.

 

NOTE  These are tendencies, not absolutes, and not necessarily about the 1st round. 

 

A)  Since McBeane has been in Buffalo, they have made 37 draft picks.  

12 of them were players from the ACC.  12.   TENDENCY = ACC

5 from the AAC (Houston, Cinncy, UCF...)

4 from FCS schools (Weber St, Jacksonville St...)

4 SEC (4 out of 37 is a low % for the NFL)

3 PAC 12

2 BIG 12

2 BIG 10

1 Conference USA

1 Sunbelt

1 Mountain West

 

B) Brandon Beane has traded down only once while in Buffalo.   From the 6th round, down into the 7th.
While McBeane has traded up numerous times.   TENDENCY = trade up

 

C) Senior Bowl.   20 of the 37 picks played in the Senior Bowl   TENDENCY = Senior Bowl players

 

D) Combine. 36 out of 37 draft picks were combine participants.   TENDENCY = not at the combine? not likely

 

E) 6 of the 1st & 2nd round picks have been "Premier Positions", i.e. QB, DL, OT,  TENDENCY = Rd 1 & 2 Premier Positions
They don't prioritize positions like Running Back, Tight End, Center, etc in the first 2 rounds.

 

F) Pre-Draft Visits (when a prospect comes to Buffalo OR the Bills go to their college for a private workout).
A large % of draft picks have been Pre-Draft Visitors.  TENDENCY = Pre-Draft Visitors

IN Summary.  If your favorite prospect played in the Senior Bowl, was invited to the Combine, is from the ACC and is a Pre-Draft Visitor, you are probably in luck!
Lastly, sometimes the reason the Bills don't draft a prospect is because another team ahead of Buffalo drafts him first.

 

Great work, thank you.

 

In the other thread it was mentioned that in the last two years the Bills have only drafted one player who was in their Top 30 visits. I'm not sure if that is accurate but it definitely doesn't align with your point F).

 

2 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Interesting thought. To extrapolate further McD seems comfortable sitting guys for long stretches until they are ready to play. So it seems to fit your narrative that maybe they look for guys that have more upside that has not been fully seen yet. 

The counter to this thought would be Epenesa who looks like he peaked a long time ago.

 

Hmmm it seems to me that many more of the Bills high draft picks have played immediately than have been brought along slowly.

[Doc Brown]

3 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Hmmm it seems to me that many more of the Bills high draft picks have played immediately than have been brought along slowly.

First round picks.  Definitely.  White, Edmunds, Oliver, and Rousseau each played at least 15 games their rookie season.  McDermott isn't afraid to make them health scratches though (Oliver and Rousseau) if he thinks they need a kick in the pants.  Allen is the exception as he missed a few games because of injury.

Edited April 10, 2022 by Doc Brown

[No_Matter_What]

5 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

First round picks.  Definitely.  White, Edmunds, Oliver, and Rousseau each played at least 15 games their rookie season.  McDermott isn't afraid to make them health scratches though (Oliver and Rousseau) if he thinks they need a kick in the pants.  Allen is the exception as he missed a few games because of injury.

Rousseau was never a healthy scratch. He also started every game we player and never fell below 38% of snaps.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Rousseau was never a healthy scratch. He also started every game we player and never fell below 38% of snaps.

 

Nor was Ed Oliver, who has played every game he has been in Buffalo. 

 

Maybe the confusion was Ed wasn't autimatically a starter as a rookie? They began the season with Star and Jordan Phillips. Ed only became a starter later in his rookie year. 

[Doc Brown]

5 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Rousseau was never a healthy scratch. He also started every game we player and never fell below 38% of snaps.

Whoops.  I thought they sat him for the Bucs game.  I stand corrected.

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

In the other thread it was mentioned that in the last two years the Bills have only drafted one player who was in their Top 30 visits. I'm not sure if that is accurate but it definitely doesn't align with your point F).

 

In fairness the last two years the 30 visits thing has been a bit different because they have been zoom visits. Their MO previously was first two rounds were generally guys they have had in the building physically.

[No_Matter_What]

8 hours ago, intimidatortj said:

Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott collaborate on the Draft.  As they should.

Below is a quick overview of "McBeane"'s draft tendencies.  Much of this I lifted from Joe Marino of TheDraftNetwork. Thanks Joe.

 

NOTE  These are tendencies, not absolutes, and not necessarily about the 1st round. 

 

A)  Since McBeane has been in Buffalo, they have made 37 draft picks.  

12 of them were players from the ACC.  12.   TENDENCY = ACC

5 from the AAC (Houston, Cinncy, UCF...)

4 from FCS schools (Weber St, Jacksonville St...)

4 SEC (4 out of 37 is a low % for the NFL)

3 PAC 12

2 BIG 12

2 BIG 10

1 Conference USA

1 Sunbelt

1 Mountain West

 

First of all thanks for the work and good discussion topic. My two general comments:

1. Sample size is too small to draw any conclusions.

2. Most of things you listed are only relevant if we know league-wide numbers.

 

This conference thing is really interesting. To put it into perspective, there were 1277 players selected in last 5 years, 185 of which were from ACC and 298 from SEC - that is 14,5% ACC and 23,3% SEC. As you noted, Bills have drafted 32,4% ACC and only 10,8% SEC. That's extreme difference (vs league total numbers), even for such small sample size.

 

I'd say this is really a tendency. Anybody has a clue what is the reason?

  

8 hours ago, intimidatortj said:

C) Senior Bowl.   20 of the 37 picks played in the Senior Bowl   TENDENCY = Senior Bowl players

 

D) Combine. 36 out of 37 draft picks were combine participants.   TENDENCY = not at the combine? not likely

 

F) Pre-Draft Visits (when a prospect comes to Buffalo OR the Bills go to their college for a private workout).
A large % of draft picks have been Pre-Draft Visitors.  TENDENCY = Pre-Draft Visitors

 

 These numbers need some comparison with whole NFL. How many of all drafted players were in the Senoir Bowl? What percentage of draftees participate at the combine? Anybody knows? For example, if 95% of players drafted were at the combine and participants constitute 97% of players we drafted, then it is not much of a tendency. I see that usually over 320 players are invited to combine and about 255 players are drafted, so I assume almost everybody who is drafted was actually at the combine.

 

As for the pre draft visits, I guess it is the same (similar) for all teams.

 

8 hours ago, intimidatortj said:

E) 6 of the 1st & 2nd round picks have been "Premier Positions", i.e. QB, DL, OT,  TENDENCY = Rd 1 & 2 Premier Positions
They don't prioritize positions like Running Back, Tight End, Center, etc in the first 2 rounds.

 

I am confused how you counted this one. Who are those 6 players? Did you count WR as premier position? I have no idea who did you include.

 

Last 5 years there were 9 players drafted by the Bills in the first 2 rounds:

 

DE Rousseau, DE Basham, DE Epenesa, DT Oliver, OT Ford, QB Allen, LB Edmunds, CB White, WR Jones, OT Dawkins (listed as OG on wiki - I don't remember what he was on college).

 

But in orded to consider this we need to be clear what is "premier position" and then compare it to league wide numbers.

  

8 hours ago, intimidatortj said:

Lastly, sometimes the reason the Bills don't draft a prospect is because another team ahead of Buffalo drafts him first.

 

Well, this is certainly true

[TBBills]

Beane's probably reading this ***** and taking notes also.

[Solomon Grundy]

I wouldn't try to analyze a WIZARD 😎

[Ethan in Cleveland]

6 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Great work, thank you.

 

In the other thread it was mentioned that in the last two years the Bills have only drafted one player who was in their Top 30 visits. I'm not sure if that is accurate but it definitely doesn't align with your point F).

 

 

Hmmm it seems to me that many more of the Bills high draft picks have played immediately than have been brought along slowly.

Yeah as I think about it now it has been more sporadic.  White, Edmunds, Rousseau,  Knox and heck even Ford started right away.  The plan was to sit Allen at first but thankfully Peterman took care of that. Oliver played in the rotation but did not start right away. Basham and Epenesa were brought along at the slowest pace. 

[Orlando Buffalo]

12 hours ago, intimidatortj said:

Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott collaborate on the Draft.  As they should.

Below is a quick overview of "McBeane"'s draft tendencies.  Much of this I lifted from Joe Marino of TheDraftNetwork. Thanks Joe.

 

NOTE  These are tendencies, not absolutes, and not necessarily about the 1st round. 

 

A)  Since McBeane has been in Buffalo, they have made 37 draft picks.  

12 of them were players from the ACC.  12.   TENDENCY = ACC

5 from the AAC (Houston, Cinncy, UCF...)

4 from FCS schools (Weber St, Jacksonville St...)

4 SEC (4 out of 37 is a low % for the NFL)

3 PAC 12

2 BIG 12

2 BIG 10

1 Conference USA

1 Sunbelt

1 Mountain West

 

B) Brandon Beane has traded down only once while in Buffalo.   From the 6th round, down into the 7th.
While McBeane has traded up numerous times.   TENDENCY = trade up

 

C) Senior Bowl.   20 of the 37 picks played in the Senior Bowl   TENDENCY = Senior Bowl players

 

D) Combine. 36 out of 37 draft picks were combine participants.   TENDENCY = not at the combine? not likely

 

E) 6 of the 1st & 2nd round picks have been "Premier Positions", i.e. QB, DL, OT,  TENDENCY = Rd 1 & 2 Premier Positions
They don't prioritize positions like Running Back, Tight End, Center, etc in the first 2 rounds.

 

F) Pre-Draft Visits (when a prospect comes to Buffalo OR the Bills go to their college for a private workout).
A large % of draft picks have been Pre-Draft Visitors.  TENDENCY = Pre-Draft Visitors

IN Summary.  If your favorite prospect played in the Senior Bowl, was invited to the Combine, is from the ACC and is a Pre-Draft Visitor, you are probably in luck!
Lastly, sometimes the reason the Bills don't draft a prospect is because another team ahead of Buffalo drafts him first.

Well done- so now you know all of these will be wrong this year!

[hondo in seattle]

I've got to wonder about the ACC tendency and whether or not it's predictive...

 

Is it just a statistical fluke?  (The sample size isn't huge).

 

Do they favor the ACC for some reason?  Do they believe it produces more NFL caliber athletes?

 

Does our scout for the ACC have more pull at OBD?  Is he more persuasive?  

 

 

 

 

Edited April 10, 2022 by hondo in seattle