Why arm strength matters(Mac Jones/Josh Allen comparison in playoff game by Cover 1)

[djp14150]

3 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Since you are a data scientist, can you say that Jones could get the ball to that spot on the field throwing at a lower angle OR would that cause the ball to land at a different location? 

i coukd not tell his throwing snake and how much ooomof he had on it.

 

45 degree angle gets you the farthest. +/- around 45 cuts out on distance. Higher degrees will take more time and can be affected more by w8nd.

 

in a windy day if you can do the throw at say 30 degrees you won’t be as affected from winds altering trajectory than a high ball.  If you have good arm stragth you can throw far at low angles….limiting wind effects.

 

it’s similar with golf and driving a ball. You hit a ball below tree line wind won’t factor in as much as a high arc drive where the ball got above the tree line.

 

Jones missing the pass is more of timing of throw than arm.

 

with all deep passes you want it ahead of your receiver because DBs are usually behind them.

 

another factor is the safety anticipation of the throw and playing it.  
 

no analysis was done on looking off the safety or other route distractions that could have limited safety help.

 

 

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, CoudyBills said:

This conversation is with regard to Mac and Josh.  

 

This "conversation" is simply a poor attempt to dump on Jones (and the Pats) and pretend it's not by making generalized statements about physical traits being supreme.  That's nonsense.   What makes Allen an elite NFL QB isn't his arm strength but all his "intangibles", especially his drive, his processing ability, his decision making.  He came with the drive but he's had to work on his mechanics to improve his accuracy, he had to learn to read/recognize defenses, and he had to improve his decision making based on his experience.   Guess what, most QBs who have come into the NFL with great arms have never improved nearly as much as Allen has, which is, again, why he's special.

 

If Jones has as much drive and other intangibles as Allen, based off of his rookie season, Jones may very well become a successful NFL QB if he continues to work on his game.  He won't be in Allen's level but there aren't many QBs who are.

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

This "conversation" is simply a poor attempt to dump on Jones (and the Pats) and pretend it's not by making generalized statements about physical traits being supreme.  That's nonsense.   What makes Allen an elite NFL QB isn't his arm strength but all his "intangibles", especially his drive, his processing ability, his decision making.  He came with the drive but he's had to work on his mechanics to improve his accuracy, he had to learn to read/recognize defenses, and he had to improve his decision making based on his experience.   Guess what, most QBs who have come into the NFL with great arms have never improved nearly as much as Allen has, which is, again, why he's special.

 

If Jones has as much drive and other intangibles as Allen, based off of his rookie season, Jones may very well become a successful NFL QB if he continues to work on his game.  He won't be in Allen's level but there aren't many QBs who are.

 

This isn't about whether Jones can be successful or not on this level. It's simply showing he doesn't have the arm strength to make a throw that Allen effortlessly makes. Can Jones be an elite game manager? Sure. But at the end of the day he is just a game manager. They can do really well in the regular season...look at Alex Smith with the Chiefs or Chad Pennington. But once they get in the playoffs it's a different game.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Big Turk

[eball]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

And if he throws it a little more outside, Hyde also can’t make that play.

 

I stand by that it’s not as simple as arm strength.

 

Sounds like you're just arguing to argue.  Suit yourself.

[Don Otreply]

57 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

This "conversation" is simply a poor attempt to dump on Jones (and the Pats) and pretend it's not by making generalized statements about physical traits being supreme.  That's nonsense.   What makes Allen an elite NFL QB isn't his arm strength but all his "intangibles", especially his drive, his processing ability, his decision making.  He came with the drive but he's had to work on his mechanics to improve his accuracy, he had to learn to read/recognize defenses, and he had to improve his decision making based on his experience.   Guess what, most QBs who have come into the NFL with great arms have never improved nearly as much as Allen has, which is, again, why he's special.

 

If Jones has as much drive and other intangibles as Allen, based off of his rookie season, Jones may very well become a successful NFL QB if he continues to work on his game.  He won't be in Allen's level but there aren't many QBs who are.

It’s always okay to dump on the entire Pats organization, to include their QB, in fact if you are a real fan you dump on any team that’s not your own, like it or not, it’s a rule…,  😁👍

 

 

 

[TheBrownBear]

Yes, a guy with freakish arm strength can make plays that an average arm can't.  That's been true throughout the entire history of the forward pass.  That doesn't mean Mac Jones can't be a good-to-great QB.  He just needs to make up for it in different ways (pre-snap reads, anticipation, looking guys off, ball placement, etc.).  Yes, he's an extreme outlier, but look at what Drew Brees accomplished over his career with an average arm.  And Brady didn't have a particularly strong arm when he entered the league, but he somehow improved that over time through "diet and excercise."  I'm not about to write a guy off after a solid rookie season where he led a mediocre roster to the playoffs. 

[Mat68]

On 4/9/2022 at 6:31 PM, PonyBoy said:

I agree with your video and stat post. However! Bills fans and NFL fans would say, that was a ridiculous closing speed interception & perception by Hyde!!!

That is a lazer beam like Allens its likely a TD.  The air under the ball allowed the extra time needed to make a play on the ball.   It doesnt make any blanket statements about Jones success level.  Simply, this time of year traits get downplayed by many looking at draft prospects.  This video shows why things like arm strength can make a difference.  

[FLFan]

On 4/9/2022 at 5:41 PM, FireChans said:

Lol I mean sure, but Mac’s ball a little more accurately placed outside is a TD. And Sanders was way more open.

Yeah, but it was not accurate, and it took long to get there.  Maybe he was more open because the DBs could not close on it?  

[Dukestreetking]

On 4/9/2022 at 8:56 PM, CincyBillsFan said:

You can also fool safeties with your eyes and Allen has become quite good at that

 

This. Very underated part of his game.

[eball]

1 hour ago, TheBrownBear said:

I'm not about to write a guy off after a solid rookie season where he led a mediocre roster to the playoffs. 

 

Define "led."  Are you really suggesting the Pats*** won games last year because of Mac Jones' play?  I think most outside observers would say the Pats*** made it to the playoffs behind a stellar defense and running game.  Was he serviceable?  Sure.  He put up a decent rating with his dinks and dunks, but from what I witnessed he didn't ever put the team on his back.

 

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by eball

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, Don Otreply said:

It’s always okay to dump on the entire Pats organization, to include their QB, in fact if you are a real fan you dump on any team that’s not your own, like it or not, it’s a rule…,  😁👍

 

 

 

 

After decades of being on the receiving end of manure from Pats, Fins, and Jests fans because this franchise was so hopeless for so long, I revel in knowing that we have one of the very best organizations in the NFL that found a generational talent at QB.  I don't get my jollies rubbing other teams' proverbial noses in poop on a MB.  The Bills kicking butt during the season and playoffs is sweet enough revenge.

 

1 hour ago, TheBrownBear said:

Yes, a guy with freakish arm strength can make plays that an average arm can't.  That's been true throughout the entire history of the forward pass.  That doesn't mean Mac Jones can't be a good-to-great QB.  He just needs to make up for it in different ways (pre-snap reads, anticipation, looking guys off, ball placement, etc.).  Yes, he's an extreme outlier, but look at what Drew Brees accomplished over his career with an average arm.  And Brady didn't have a particularly strong arm when he entered the league, but he somehow improved that over time through "diet and excercise."  I'm not about to write a guy off after a solid rookie season where he led a mediocre roster to the playoffs. 

 

Totally agree.  IMO, Belichick wanted Jones because he thinks he can coach him into a facsimile of Brady.  Maybe he can but he probably won't, but certainly Brady and Brees are examples of guys without rocket arms who are going to Canton on the first ballot.

 

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

That is a lazer beam like Allens its likely a TD.  The air under the ball allowed the extra time needed to make a play on the ball.   It doesnt make any blanket statements about Jones success level.  Simply, this time of year traits get downplayed by many looking at draft prospects.  This video

 

shows why things like arm strength can make a difference.  

 

Unfortunately, QBs like Rodgers or Mahomes or Allen don't come along that often.   That's why they're "generational talents".  

 

Mostly, the best a team can realistically hope for is getting a Russell Wilson or a Ben Roethlisberger or Drew Brees.  They're great QBs but a team that finds a Rodgers, Mahomes or Allen has a horseshoe up its butt.  For a team to get into the position to draft a top QB prospect when it needs one usually means having several circumstances to fall their way.  The best QB in a draft class may very well not be the #1 overall pick.  Rodgers (#24), Mahomes(#10) or Allen(#7) weren't the first QBs taken in their draft classes. 

Edited April 11, 2022 by SoTier

[TheBrownBear]

37 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Define "led."  Are you really suggesting the Pats*** won games last year because of Mac Jones' play?  I think most outside observers would say the Pats*** made it to the playoffs behind a stellar defense and running game.  Was he serviceable?  Sure.  He put up a decent rating with his dinks and dunks, but from I witnessed he didn't ever put the team on his back.

"Led" in that he started 17 games for a playoff team, completed 67% of his passes and threw for over 3800 yards - as a rookie.  We tend to think Bill treated him with kid gloves because of the wind game, but he attempted 521 passes, which puts him in the top half of the league.  He clearly elevated that offense compared to what they rolled out there in 2020.  I'm not saying he strikes fear in me as a Bills fan, but he clearly was a difference maker for the Pats as a rookie and was light years ahead of a guy like Tua.  

[eball]

2 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

I'm not saying he strikes fear in me as a Bills fan, but he clearly was a difference maker for the Pats as a rookie and was light years ahead of a guy like Tua.  

 

And that's where we disagree.  I think Belichick can take just about any mid-level QB and get that performance out of him with his dink and dunk system if he's got a strong defense and running game.  Calling Jones a "difference-maker" is hilarious; in extreme conditions he wasn't even allowed to play the position.

 

Only three QBs who started all 17 games last season threw for fewer yards than Jones.  Only three threw fewer TDs.  He is a "middle of the pack" QB in just about every aspect of the game, which is fine.  He can have a nice little NFL career.  Gotta dream bigger with a 1st round QB.

 

[Don Otreply]

3 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

After decades of being on the receiving end of manure from Pats, Fins, and Jests fans because this franchise was so hopeless for so long, I revel in knowing that we have one of the very best organizations in the NFL that found a generational talent at QB.  I don't get my jollies rubbing other teams' proverbial noses in poop on a MB.  The Bills kicking butt during the season and playoffs is sweet enough revenge.

 

 

Totally agree.  IMO, Belichick wanted Jones because he thinks he can coach him into a facsimile of Brady.  Maybe he can but he probably won't, but certainly Brady and Brees are examples of guys without rocket arms who are going to Canton on the first ballot.

 

 

Unfortunately, QBs like Rodgers or Mahomes or Allen don't come along that often.   That's why they're "generational talents".  

 

Mostly, the best a team can realistically hope for is getting a Russell Wilson or a Ben Roethlisberger or Drew Brees.  They're great QBs but a team that finds a Rodgers, Mahomes or Allen has a horseshoe up its butt.  For a team to get into the position to draft a top QB prospect when it needs one usually means having several circumstances to fall their way.  The best QB in a draft class may very well not be the #1 overall pick.  Rodgers (#24), Mahomes(#10) or Allen(#7) weren't the first QBs taken in their draft classes. 

Sports without talking smack with friends and other teams fans is a vastly reduced experience, where would we be if no one ever busted a fins fan over their weak little QB? Or a jets fan about the tire fire that is that organization?? The freaking world would stop spinning on its axis, the space time continuum would collapse, I could end up the dictator of the planet earth…, and really, who wants that????  We are all better off talking some trash from time to time, it soothes the soul, much like a well mixed martini and a cigarette 🚬 

[Nextmanup]

Arm strength is not all about launching the ball 60 yards down the field.

 

I don't think most fans have an appreciation for HOW LONG OF A THROW a pass is that goes 7 yards downfield, but goes close to the width of the field, or from one hash mark to the other.  There is a lot of open space out there on an NFL football field!

 

 

3 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

After decades of being on the receiving end of manure from Pats, Fins, and Jests fans because this franchise was so hopeless for so long, I revel in knowing that we have one of the very best organizations in the NFL that found a generational talent at QB.  I don't get my jollies rubbing other teams' proverbial noses in poop on a MB.  The Bills kicking butt during the season and playoffs is sweet enough revenge.

 

 

Totally agree.  IMO, Belichick wanted Jones because he thinks he can coach him into a facsimile of Brady.  Maybe he can but he probably won't, but certainly Brady and Brees are examples of guys without rocket arms who are going to Canton on the first ballot.

 

 

Unfortunately, QBs like Rodgers or Mahomes or Allen don't come along that often.   That's why they're "generational talents".  

 

Mostly, the best a team can realistically hope for is getting a Russell Wilson or a Ben Roethlisberger or Drew Brees.  They're great QBs but a team that finds a Rodgers, Mahomes or Allen has a horseshoe up its butt.  For a team to get into the position to draft a top QB prospect when it needs one usually means having several circumstances to fall their way.  The best QB in a draft class may very well not be the #1 overall pick.  Rodgers (#24), Mahomes(#10) or Allen(#7) weren't the first QBs taken in their draft classes. 

Russel Wilson and especially Drew Brees are absolutely outstanding QBs! 

 

I'd put Brees right up there with Mahomes or Allen, he just came earlier.  He was an exceptional talent. Maybe not the runner, but who cares if you can throw the ball like Drew Brees.

 

Brady is clearly the best of all time--he couldn't run for crap.  Neither could Jim Kelly.

 

 

[Bill from NYC]

2 hours ago, eball said:

 

Only three QBs who started all 17 games last season threw for fewer yards than Jones.  Only three threw fewer TDs.  He is a "middle of the pack" QB in just about every aspect of the game, which is fine.  He can have a nice little NFL career.  Gotta dream bigger with a 1st round QB.

 

Oh yeah, NE should have grabbed Justin Fields, right? 🙄🤨🙄

[CoudyBills]

6 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

This "conversation" is simply a poor attempt to dump on Jones (and the Pats) and pretend it's not by making generalized statements about physical traits being supreme.  That's nonsense.   What makes Allen an elite NFL QB isn't his arm strength but all his "intangibles", especially his drive, his processing ability, his decision making.  He came with the drive but he's had to work on his mechanics to improve his accuracy, he had to learn to read/recognize defenses, and he had to improve his decision making based on his experience.   Guess what, most QBs who have come into the NFL with great arms have never improved nearly as much as Allen has, which is, again, why he's special.

 

If Jones has as much drive and other intangibles as Allen, based off of his rookie season, Jones may very well become a successful NFL QB if he continues to work on his game.  He won't be in Allen's level but there aren't many QBs who are.

  This conversation is about A single throw where elite physical traits made all the difference. 

Edited April 11, 2022 by CoudyBills
Cleaned up

[K-9]

Mac Jones shouldn’t feel bad about not having as strong an arm as Josh Allen. You can count the number of QBs in history that have comparable arms on one hand. 

[SoTier]

15 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Sports without talking smack with friends and other teams fans is a vastly reduced experience, where would we be if no one ever busted a fins fan over their weak little QB? Or a jets fan about the tire fire that is that organization?? The freaking world would stop spinning on its axis, the space time continuum would collapse, I could end up the dictator of the planet earth…, and really, who wants that????  We are all better off talking some trash from time to time, it soothes the soul, much like a well mixed martini and a cigarette 🚬 

 

I'm old ... I've mellowed.

[1ManRaid]

On 4/9/2022 at 6:07 PM, The Dean said:

Has someone actually argued that arm strength doesn't matter at all? Has zero impact?  I know that arm strength is only ONE factor, but of course it matters. This seems like a straw man argument to me.

 

You're the one strawmanning, because no one's making the claim that people are saying arm strength doesn't matter AT ALL.  People (Patriot/Dolphin fans) are saying their QBs' lack of arm strength won't hold them back from being an elite QB and better than Josh Allen.  Basically that short accuracy (which they use to inflate completion % with checkdowns) is just that much more important than arm strength.  That or they just outright deny that Tua or McCorkle have weak arms, but that's another argument about delusion.