Mock draft has Bills trade next years round 1 + , to move up in first - Too much?

[YoloinOhio]

Yes it’s too much and Beane has been resistant to trade future ones even when he moved up for Allen. He did it for diggs who was an established player with a reasonable multi year deal in place. But cannot see it to move up for a rookie. 

[atlbillsfan1975]

When you have a QB making $40 mil you need more rookie contracts not less. 

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, Bag of Milk said:

They are doing their due diligence on Kyle Hamilton. Thus, it appears he would be their target on a trade up.

 

Beane has said he interviews some prospects that he believes our divisional rivals may take, to scope them out as potential opponents. I am certain that if we've met with Hamilton it's because we think he could be a NY Jet for the next decade.

[Thurman#1]

Much too much.

 

As a thought experiment, it's interesting.

 

But you don't give up ths much except for a franchise QB. We've already got one. 

 

This would go down as a second Watkins trade.

Edited April 6, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

Correct. It was an idiotic pick to run away from a HOF QB to draft a corner.

 

 

 

Trading away Mahomes sounds idiotic till you realize we got Allen and Tre. A fantastic trade.

 

The making of this team.

 

 

3 hours ago, Max Fischer said:

It makes no sense.

 

First, Bills would need to assume Gardner is a can't miss prospect. 

Second, that Gardner is THE key to a Super Bowl this year. 

Third, there are no other good options at CB (even by the third round)

Fourth, the Bills have exhausted all other options to give up a 2023 first and third for other assests.  

 

On the surface, none of these can be reasonably considered true. 

 

Very nicely put.

 

 

Edited April 6, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Aussie Joe]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Flat-out wrong. 

 

Trading away Mahomes sounds idiotic till you realize we got Allen and Tre. A fantastic trade.

More good luck then good management but I’ll take it 

 

 

Edited April 6, 2022 by Aussie Joe

[Putin]

7 hours ago, Desert Bills Fan said:

New York Upstate has the scenario where we trade this years 1st and 3rd plus next years 1st and 5th, to move way up and get DB Sauce Gardner! 
That is a lot , and I don’t watch much college ball, but the pundits think he is great. I think this would be a good deal to go along with the moves already made, all in for this year (and the next couple). We definitely need cornerback help, and not many draft picks will make an impact on this team, but seems the sauce could. 
 

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2022/04/nfl-draft-2022-bills-find-missing-ingredient-add-sauce-to-secondary-in-big-trade-mock-20.html

 

what do you think? Too much for a DB position?

Is he a Jalen Ramsey 2.0 ? Thought call !!! 

[KOKBILLS]

I don't see the logic in trading future premium picks that will likely be cheap labor starters, or prime back-ups, when you are clearly going to be up against the cap...

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

We traded a ton for Sammy when we had EJ and Kyle Orton at QB. Of course it failed.

 

We traded a similar amount for Diggs with Josh at QB, and it's worked out pretty well.

 

Completely different teams. Cant compare to old trades in a vacuum.

 

 

No, we traded one first round pick for Diggs, along with a 5th and a 6th in that year and a 4th the next, receiving a 7th that year.

 

This is two 1st round picks plus a 3rd and a 5th. 

 

Terrible trade. 

 

For Diggs, we traded away:

 

2020 #22

2020 #155

2020 #201

2021 #134

 

and received the Vikes 2020 #239

 

For this new trade, we'd be trading away:

 

2022 #25

2022 #89

2023 1st

2023 5th

 

Only for a franchise QB. That's the standard rule. Never trade away two firsts except for a franchise QB. Again, we have one.

 

The analytics tell us that this kind of trade works out infrequently. Check "The Loser's Curse: Decision Making and Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft" by Massey and Thaler. All the articles say the same thing as well.

 

The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective article "How to Value Draft Picks" backs up Massey and Thaler. They all do, really.

 

 

Edited April 6, 2022 by Thurman#1

[HurlyBurly51]

Drooling at the thought of Sauce and Tre though...

[st pete gogolak]

Really, really hate the idea of trading next year's #1, not just for the Bills but anyone (thought Saints giving up next year's #1 to Eagles was just flat out stupid when there is a good chance it will be a top ten pick).  Of course it worked out ok for KC giving up a next year #! to get Mahones.  I've seen Gardner mocked anywhere from #4 to #12.  If he is there at #10, I'd consider trading #25 and next year's #1 for Gardner.  I certainly wouldn't hate it.  That would be top offer, however.  Wouldn't give up anything else.  

[thenorthremembers]

1 hour ago, DCofNC said:

The contract is the key.

The player is the key.   You can move money around.  You cant teach Sauce Gardner to be Jalen Ramsey.    Huge risk to give up multiple picks for a player who doesnt have the ball in his hands ever  

[HappyDays]

8 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

So we give up as much to get Sauce Gardner as the Rams did to get Jalen Ramsey?  

 

I'm not in favor of this potential trade up but the Ramsey trade is not a good comparison. If Gardner works out you get an elite CB on a rookie contract with a 5th year option at the end. Ramsey counts $25 million against the cap this year. Gardner will be around $5 to $6 million.

[Motor26]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm not in favor of this potential trade up but the Ramsey trade is not a good comparison. If Gardner works out you get an elite CB on a rookie contract with a 5th year option at the end. Ramsey counts $25 million against the cap this year. Gardner will be around $5 to $6 million.

Yes but Ramsey was an All Pro corner vs. a rookie unknown…counting on Gardner to be as good as Ramsey is absurdly optimistic.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I love Talbot's mock draft. Usually I advocate for trading down but Beane plugged so many holes,, there just is not enough roster space to fill.

His mock adds an elite corner and bolsters both OT and OG. At the same time get a punter and jettisons the late round picks for picks next year. Love it!

The only change I would make is Iwould draft MLB or Safety in the second round. As someone else pointed out, at least one if not two of the three - Edmunds, Poyer, and Hyde will be gone after this year. My preference would be draft MLB in the second round. Let Edmunds walk after this year. 

As for WR, they have enough on the roster now, but I would still make a run at Sanders for one more year.

[Aussie Joe]

23 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I love Talbot's mock draft. Usually I advocate for trading down but Beane plugged so many holes,, there just is not enough roster space to fill.

His mock adds an elite corner and bolsters both OT and OG. At the same time get a punter and jettisons the late round picks for picks next year. Love it!

The only change I would make is Iwould draft MLB or Safety in the second round. As someone else pointed out, at least one if not two of the three - Edmunds, Poyer, and Hyde will be gone after this year. My preference would be draft MLB in the second round. Let Edmunds walk after this year. 

As for WR, they have enough on the roster now, but I would still make a run at Sanders for one more year.

 

I think the 2023 first round next year and the third this year might make the roster...

 

 

 

Edited April 6, 2022 by Aussie Joe

[whorlnut]

12 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Or he could be a giant bust.

 

All mocks are terrible. All of them. But trading this much to move up for a CB when one might be there (if it’s BPA seeing as drafting for need is dumb) at 25 is a bit much. Even for a mock.

Exactly. This idea that this team has to draft a corner in 1 is not smart. Beane has never drafted for need. In fact, Beane might not see it as as much of a need as fans do. I get the idea he really likes Jackson. I can’t see ya trading all that to get a CB2 at all. 

[hondo in seattle]

16 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

When you have a QB making $40 mil you need more rookie contracts not less. 

 

Exactly.  

While trading up for Josh worked well, the draft is a crapshoot.  You're more likely to hit it big with more picks. 

 

And we need some hits.  We need impact players who are on rookie contracts to counterbalance the big contract players (Allen, Miller, Diggs).  

[Special K]

21 hours ago, Special K said:

if the Bills do that, there would be a high chance that the Bills would trade Diggs for a first next offseason to get that first rounder back

 

Very happy to be wrong about this!!

[DrPJax]

23 hours ago, Desert Bills Fan said:

New York Upstate has the scenario where we trade this years 1st and 3rd plus next years 1st and 5th, to move way up and get DB Sauce Gardner! 
That is a lot , and I don’t watch much college ball, but the pundits think he is great. I think this would be a good deal to go along with the moves already made, all in for this year (and the next couple). We definitely need cornerback help, and not many draft picks will make an impact on this team, but seems the sauce could. 
 

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2022/04/nfl-draft-2022-bills-find-missing-ingredient-add-sauce-to-secondary-in-big-trade-mock-20.html

 

what do you think? Too much for a DB position?

Would NEVER happen.  First Beane gave up a 1st for Diggs and was miserable on draft day  not having a first round pick and stated he was unlikely to do that again and second, Mcd has never ( including his Carolina days) used valuable picks / assets to fill the 2nd cb roster spot.  He is confident on developing late round picks / ufas for that spot.   This roster will need labor on rookie contracts moving forward as well and the price to get up above cb needy rivals who have multiple picks and can afford to take Gardner in the top 5-10  is too steep. Many have the jets taking him at 4 I believe and we are not going to make a move from 25 to get anywhere close to that high.  
 

We made our huge moves with Von , Diggs, Bates’ etc and this team does need depth to offset injuries we see happen every year to every NFL  team and we need o line , cb , wr , legit rb talent , a legit one technique DT ( settles is still a mild ? mark and needs development still ).  Gardner is good yet there are very good scheme fit cbs for the NUMBER 2 CB who will be there thru th 3 rd round in all likelihood. Beane did his all in move with Miller and that’s how Mcd plays pass d, he values d line pressure to Help his cbs hold up.and if he valued cb 2 that much , he could have replaced Wallace several seasons going and last year they didn’t even devote a single pick to a cb !  Now you expect them to throw multiple high round picks for a position they have demonstrated they will fill with FA’s / udfa’s ?   Pl
 

We don’t draft in a vacuum and other teams value Gardner so he is an early target.  You only give up that much draft value going after a franchise QB , not your cb 2. who doesn’t even cover other teams #1 wr.  Mcd uses scheme to effect his philosophy on pass d and year after year he / Beane have proven they value d line pressure to achieve that   They finally  invested in the piece ( Miller ) to be sure they get the sacks / pressures they value.  This isn’t madden ; the Bills Need depth and rookie contracts moving forward and they will also need guys developing to fill roster spots of guys here on one year deals like Safford should he chose to retire next year etc.    The only position you throw that much draft capital at is a franchise Qb and we were lucky to get to 7 to get Josh; no way possible to get that high from 25 or to get above the Jets at 4 realistically. If something weird happened and Gardner dropped out of the top 10 , maybe they inquire, but that seems very implausible.

 

My strongest argument tho is you don’t go several years ( or in mcds case , his career); fielding low picks / udfa’s at your cb 2 spot , throw millions at the d line year after year , to now suddenly act counter to that by throwing so much at the cb2 and then be vulnerable at other valued positions for several subsequent years. Mcd has shown he can make his d work with cb talent taken with later picks and I can’t see he or Beane varying from that now , esp given all the asset allocation to the d line where they obviously ARE willing to throw multiple picks at and spend huge FA money on. Franchise qbs have that much impact on winning , cb2’s do not and that’s been proven throughout the league. Even if White doesn’t return to form , he’s proof you can get adequate talent at 25 and don’t need to mortgage multiple assets trying to find.  They also obviously value Jackson , and will either add a vet later or add another later pick at cb to compete with him.    Tasker / Brown/ Greg Cosell have all said the same as well ; there will be good cb fits for the Bills even in rounds 2-3 who can compete for cb 2  in mcds scheme.