Pounding the table for Christian Watson at 25

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, glazeduck said:

Completely agree. This is a guy that draftniks love to love and NFL types view with great skepticism. 

 

Too add to that, there's the draft math... There's 24 picks ahead of us...

• Certainly 4, possibly 5 will be EDGE defenders
• Likely 4 OTs will go ahead of us
• 1-3 IOL get taken
• 1-3 IDL will be taken
• At least 3, possibly as many as 9 or 10 (unlikely) DBs get taken
• At minimum 1, possibly as many as 3 or 4 QBs get taken ahead of us as well
• Which brings us to the WR class -- by my board there's 7 or 8 guys who could go ahead of us (if you want to include Watson, since this is a 'what-if')

That is, at the most conservative, 21 selections (not including any surprise/non-chalk picks and LB, RB or TEs) and as many as 37. I'm not an advocate of taking Watson, I think he belongs squarely in the mid/back-half of the 2nd round, but if the draft falls such that he, in addition to all of the other viable WRs aren't even available at 25, that likely means other really good players are. Given our ability to find performance (Davis drafted in mid-rounds, McKenzie picked up off Denver's scout team, etc.) I think I'd be very okay with that. 

 

We're in a super bowl window, we can't afford to miss on an early draft pick and Watson is about the farthest thing from a sure draft pick this draft offers. DO NOT WANT (at least at 25...)

 

I agree he will be there at #25. I think his draft ceiling (i.e. the very first place he is in play) is probably Green Bay at #22. Then Arizona at #23 and then the Bills at #25 - and those 3 are only in play if the run on receiver starts early. Like if Atlanta goes receiver at #8 and then Houston at #13 I can see a position where 4 or 5 are off the board by the time Green Bay select and they HAVE to get a receiver. Conversely, I think there is almost no chance he is there at #57. If you want to take Watson, it is a trade back into the last couple of picks of the first or first few picks of the 2nd. Or a big trade up in round 2 (which I am not sure the Bills would be willing to make). I'd personally love our first two picks to be Andrew Booth and Christian Watson. That is my absolute dream scenario. I just can't see a way of it happening. 

[Vickveto]

1 hour ago, glazeduck said:

I think you misunderstood me. I wasn't saying don't take a WR, I was saying not to take a guy with a high likelihood of busting. Relative to draft cost, Watson might have the biggest bust potential in the whole draft. My only point was you can't afford to miss on your 1st round pick when you're on the doorstep of a super bowl... 

biggest bust potential? We don’t even know how Williams will recover from surgery. This year‘s quarterback class looks abysmal. 20 out of 37 players we drafted performed at the senior bowl it is really important to us. in my personal opinion it is the best tape you can look at because some systems hide players deficiencies really well and every single player on the field there that you are competing against is of a certain level. Watson dominated the receivers and DBs  that you are clamoring for in the later rounds. 

[Vickveto]

Sixth wide receivers gone before we pick at 25. Not saying this is the way that the draft is going to go but I could definitely see it going like this.

[John from Riverside]

On 4/4/2022 at 2:26 PM, Vickveto said:

Everybody wants him in the second round. That means his value is going to go up he will not make it out of the first round he might not even make it till 25.

draft is whackadoo.......cant really tell what is going to happen

[BillsFanForever19]

On 4/11/2022 at 10:41 AM, Vickveto said:

I am honestly starting to feel like he won’t be there at 25 anymore. There will be a major run wide receivers starting between 17-24. Burks is the only other wide receiver I think it’s worth taking in the first. I think the majority of the best wide receivers in this class will not be drafted in the first round.

 

I'm so confused by this post. You say you expect a major run on WR's between 17-24, but then say you think the majority of the best WR's won't be drafted in the First Round?

 

And are you saying you think the only WR's worth taking in Round 1 are Treylon Burks and Christian Watson? 🤨

[transplantbillsfan]

Ya know, the more I think about round 1 and Brandon Beane, the more I think it's going to be a traits guy we draft over anything like a "safe bet" or "great college production.

 

2018 he drafts Allen and Edmunds in round 1.... TRAITS!!!!

2019 he drafts Oliver... TRAITS!!! (yes I know he's small, but the traits weren't his size)

2020 we had no 1st rounder

2021 he drafts Groot... TRAITS!!!

 

It almost seems like a better bet that Beane goes out of his way to figure out how to draft the physical freaks of this draft (Watson, Drake Burks, Booth, Jameson Williams, Stingley, Sauce, Kyle Hamilton) over the more polished guys with college production (McDuffie, Gordon, Olave, Wilson, McReary, Dotson, Moore).

 

And notice I said "better bet."  I don't think the guys on that 2nd list are off our board, it just seems like Beane really values unique physical traits f some sort.  And I know all those guys on that first list don't share the same physical traits, but there's something physically with them that stands out.  It actually makes me wonder how high a guy like Tyquan Thornton is on Beane's board.

[gobills404]

The Christian Watson hype since the combine has gotten out of control. 40 yard dash is extremely overrated for WRs and all the reasons he was viewed as a mid round pick before the combine (route running, drops, didn’t dominate FCS) still exist. No idea why any team would take Watson in the first 2 rounds when they could just get Isaiah Weston on day 3.

 

[Vickveto]

1 hour ago, gobills404 said:

 

The Christian Watson hype since the combine has gotten out of control. 40 yard dash is extremely overrated for WRs and all the reasons he was viewed as a mid round pick before the combine (route running, drops, didn’t dominate FCS) still exist. No idea why any team would take Watson in the first 2 rounds when they could just get Isaiah Weston on day 3.

 

No that is false. The hype started when he was the best receiver at the senior bowl BY A WIDE MARGIN. If he route running is so poor what does that say about the other 15+ seniors receivers including ISAIAH WESTON that attend and performed there? Plus when I looked into Weston he has tore his ACL before and his battled foot issues his whole career. Watson has never been reported injured. 

[Vickveto]

I don’t know how credible this guy is but if he is there take him.

[4merper4mer]

On 4/11/2022 at 3:11 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree he will be there at #25. I think his draft ceiling (i.e. the very first place he is in play) is probably Green Bay at #22. Then Arizona at #23 and then the Bills at #25 - and those 3 are only in play if the run on receiver starts early. Like if Atlanta goes receiver at #8 and then Houston at #13 I can see a position where 4 or 5 are off the board by the time Green Bay select and they HAVE to get a receiver. Conversely, I think there is almost no chance he is there at #57. If you want to take Watson, it is a trade back into the last couple of picks of the first or first few picks of the 2nd. Or a big trade up in round 2 (which I am not sure the Bills would be willing to make). I'd personally love our first two picks to be Andrew Booth and Christian Watson. That is my absolute dream scenario. I just can't see a way of it happening. 

Can we get Pickens at 57?  If so how would that sit with you?

[GunnerBill]

30 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Can we get Pickens at 57?  If so how would that sit with you?

 

I doubt it. Very well. 

[Thurman#1]

On 4/7/2022 at 8:20 AM, Alphadawg7 said:

I like Watson a lot.

 

But...now that Diggs is extended and hearing the way Emmanuel Sanders GUSHED about Davis, I think its very unlikely we take a WR round 1 unless there was just nothing else on the board that Beane felt good about.  In which case, I think he trades back if that happened.  

 

If anyone hasn't yet seen it, Sanders gushed about Davis talking about all the greats hes been around like AB, D. Thomas, M. Thomas, etc and said Davis is just built different and hes a pro bowl level WR he expects to break out big time this year.  Thats high praise coming from a great pro like Sanders whose played with a ton of talented QB's and WR's.  

 

So for me, I think first round is not likely to be WR post Diggs extension. 

 

 

I disagree there. I could very easily see WR, and I don't think the extension made much of a difference in this discussion. The Bills knew they were going to keep Diggs. They weren't factoring need at WR1 in. 

 

They have real needs at WR2/3/4/5, though. And they don't want to be in a position where an injury puts a guy like Hodgins, Kumerow, Stevenson or Gentry on the field for significant numbers of reps.

 

They go every year with BPA at a position of need. They say this over and over and then they show it.

 

Receiver is absolutely a position of need by their standards.

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, Vickveto said:

I don’t know how credible this guy is but if he is there take him.

 

Late day 1 / early day 2 feels right to me. 

[Sierra Foothills]

On 4/13/2022 at 1:04 PM, John from Riverside said:

draft is whackadoo.......cant really tell what is going to happen

 

True.

 

But you should still be trying to predict what will happen.

 

On 4/13/2022 at 1:53 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

Ya know, the more I think about round 1 and Brandon Beane, the more I think it's going to be a traits guy we draft over anything like a "safe bet" or "great college production.

 

I agree. I think if this organization has one tendency (without evidence) I would say that they value traits.

 

On 4/13/2022 at 2:37 PM, gobills404 said:

The Christian Watson hype since the combine has gotten out of control. 40 yard dash is extremely overrated for WRs and all the reasons he was viewed as a mid round pick before the combine (route running, drops, didn’t dominate FCS) still exist. No idea why any team would take Watson in the first 2 rounds when they could just get Isaiah Weston on day 3.

 

 

That's a got ya moment.

 

All of us are now scurrying to watch video of Isaiah Weston.

 

At least I am.

 

5 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Can we get Pickens at 57?  If so how would that sit with you?

 

Honestly I was a huge Carl Pickens fan so it's hard for me to be objective because of that and also I'm behind on my "research."

 

From everything I hear  should be happy of we get Pickens at 57. I have to watch the video.

[Thurman#1]

On 4/14/2022 at 7:55 AM, Vickveto said:

No that is false. The hype started when he was the best receiver at the senior bowl BY A WIDE MARGIN. If he route running is so poor what does that say about the other 15+ seniors receivers including ISAIAH WESTON that attend and performed there? Plus when I looked into Weston he has tore his ACL before and his battled foot issues his whole career. Watson has never been reported injured. 

 

 

You keep going on about the Senior Bowl, and you're right he was the consensus best WR there.

 

But after Dotson opted out, there were mostly Day 3 guys there. It's good that he was the best, but that's not saying a ton.

 

What does it say about the others if Watson's route running was weak? Not much. He was better than them, but maybe his route running was weaker. Route running tends to take much more importance in the pros as you come up against defenders who are closer to your talent level.

 

Like it or not, his route running is a real concern. You also have to take into account his strengths, and certainly his speed and size are strengths. But route running means something. Some guys get a ton better at route running with coaching in the pros. Others don't.

[Sharky7337]

As bills fans shouldn't this title be " breaking the table for'

[LEBills]

8 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Can we get Pickens at 57?  If so how would that sit with you?

Pickens is being rumored to have some off the field issues, I could definitely see him there at 57 due to that and his injury history but doubt the Bills would take him if those rumors are true.

[Food_Pyramid_Wrong]

no more table pounding. approach the draft with dispassionate analysis and go with the flow. namaste.

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

On 4/4/2022 at 4:02 PM, Vickveto said:

Pounding the table

 

Picnic Table F'er would like a word with you.

[Vickveto]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You keep going on about the Senior Bowl, and you're right he was the consensus best WR there.

 

But after Dotson opted out, there were mostly Day 3 guys there. It's good that he was the best, but that's not saying a ton.

 

What does it say about the others if Watson's route running was weak? Not much. He was better than them, but maybe his route running was weaker. Route running tends to take much more importance in the pros as you come up against defenders who are closer to your talent level.

 

Like it or not, his route running is a real concern. You also have to take into account his strengths, and certainly his speed and size are strengths. But route running means something. Some guys get a ton better at route running with coaching in the pros. Others don't.

His route running definitely needs work but he is at a higher level than you are giving him credit for. He just flat out runs by people and with Josh Allen at quarterback you know the rest. He is also very fluid in the hips for his size he can run the gadgets we like to run with McKenzie he’s also took a couple to the house on kick off returns. I think he has the highest upside of any receiver in the draft. I think he is a day one gamebreaker. Do you believe he is worth the pick at 25? That’s what I think this boils down to. There are other players that I like at 25 even a couple other receivers but I think Watson will be the best and is the best fit for us.