Pounding the table for Christian Watson at 25

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

DK was talked about a lot as a 1st rounder too, although I have the exact same high second on both. I was not as shocked as most DK slid out of the 1st, but everyone was surprised he fell as far as he did. I think the two areas where Watson is a cleaner prospect than DK are health and personality. Watson from everything you hear is a great kid with a pro attitude. DK had been hurt and had some questions about the consistency of his effort. On the flip side DK was coming out of the SEC and Watson is coming out of a much lower lever of competition. 

 

 

I think DK was a significantly better prospect..........his massive, wide frame combined with that speed is a real tough cover for NFL DB's.........whereas they are used to defending narrow, angular types like Watson.

 

But I agree about the importance of the health aspect in the evaluation of Watson.   Watson has been healthy........which I think is a huge positive about him because it's often a struggle for receivers built like him.  

 

Like, for example, the Isaiah Weston comps.  Sure he has some similar RAS numbers........but Weston was hurt A LOT.

 

Tall, narrow framed receivers who can't stay healthy are a dime a dozen.

 

I also like what I've heard from Watson........seems like a smart kid who is going to take coaching well and work hard to get better.   Not that DK had a bad attitude but he was probably a bit more complacent due to his extremely high pedigree.    I think the bigger thing with him was the concerns that his neck problem would end his career.

[Vickveto]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I think DK was a significantly better prospect..........his massive, wide frame combined with that speed is a real tough cover for NFL DB's.........whereas they are used to defending narrow, angular types like Watson.

 

But I agree about the importance of the health aspect in the evaluation of Watson.   Watson has been healthy........which I think is a huge positive about him because it's often a struggle for receivers built like him.  

 

Like, for example, the Isaiah Weston comps.  Sure he has some similar RAS numbers........but Weston was hurt A LOT.

 

Tall, narrow framed receivers who can't stay healthy are a dime a dozen.

 

I also like what I've heard from Watson........seems like a smart kid who is going to take coaching well and work hard to get better.   Not that DK had a bad attitude but he was probably a bit more complacent due to his extremely high pedigree.    I think the bigger thing with him was the concerns that his neck problem would end his career.

I just disagree that Metcalf is a significantly better prospect if you watch the senior bowl tape he was cooking dbs’s don’t matter what school they came from and it wasn’t vertical fly routes. There were a lot of bad throws so you have to have a keen eye. but when he did go deep all I could think was what if Josh Allen was throwing that. The quarterbacks in the senior bowl couldn’t even get it there he had to try to come back for both of them. Whether we draft him or not I think he is going to be a superstar and he can give you 1000+ Rookie year. 

Edited April 8, 2022 by Vickveto

[Vickveto]

I just don’t see very many dBs they can handle him deep from what I saw at the senior bowl was enough of the other routes to be a serious problem.Plus he is a excellent blocker. no injury concerns. On another note Troy Anderson is flying up my board I just think he reminds me of Brian Urlacher he just looks so explosive on tape and he ran a 4.43 at 6.4 I could see that being the pick at 25 as well.

 

Edited April 8, 2022 by Vickveto

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, Vickveto said:

I just disagree that Metcalf is a significantly better prospect if you watch the senior bowl tape he was cooking dbs’s don’t matter was school they came from and it wasn’t vertical fly routes. There were a lot of bad throws so you have to have a keen eye. but when he did go deep all I could think was what if Josh Allen was throwing that. The quarterbacks in the senior bowl couldn’t even get it there he had to try to come back for both of them. Whether we draft him or not I think he is going to be a superstar and he can give you 1000+ Rookie year. 

 

 

There is still so much unknown with Watson.   He showed a lot in the Senior Bowl.........that elevated him significantly but that's a very brief exposure to top talent.   Spencer Brown was similar.........he was great at the Senior Bowl and blew up the combine..........physically he's an All Pro.    But despite a year of training with Joe Staley he hadn't actually played against much high end talent and he really struggled mightily in pass protection as a rookie.   I think the transition from SEC to NFL was easy for Metcalf........and he's also really a man amongst boys at his size.   Watson isn't built like Metcalf........he is almost identical physically to the similarly 4.3 speed Marques Valdes-Scantling........I'm not saying he won't do well as a rookie.........but he will be challenged physically by secondaries like Metcalf couldn't be.

[1ManRaid]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Two points on the drop rate thing:

 

1. He mainly runs downfield routes, so his catch rate doesn't benefit from some of those artificially inflated rates that the guys catching balls behind and around the line of scrimmage have. He does have some drops on his film that are bad drops, no question. But often it is him getting a hand on balls that are high degree of difficulty catches. 

 

2. There was a marked improvement on the 2021 film and the numbers bear that out. His drop rate in 2020 was 28% and that fell to just under 10% last year. Still not ideal, granted, but again some of that is down to the routes he runs and the types of catches he is attempting. 

 

I can see why it might put people off. It's a fair knock. Get open, catch the ball. He hasn't demonstrated a high level of the second element. That said, DK Metcalf's college drop rate was 10% too.... with guys like these, physical freaks who mainly just run vertically down the field, you have to consider the context to the numbers. But for sure, it's a concern and it is why I don't have a 1st round grade on Watson. The problem is I do have a top 32 grade on him and as such unless you are a team in the top 5 or 6 of round 2 your chances of taking him outside the 1st are slim IMO. 

 

I thought degree of difficulty was factored into if something is flagged as a drop.

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, 1ManRaid said:

 

I thought degree of difficulty was factored into if something is flagged as a drop.

 

Some analytics sites do adjusted drop % but the numbers I saw that had Watson 12.6% were straight up. So if you get your hands to it and don't bring it in it is regarded as a drop. 

[Mr. WEO]

I remember when all the Christians went to the Lions...

[Vickveto]

30 minutes in they recognized he was the best wide receiver at the senior bowl and it wasn’t even close.

[Coach Tuesday]

I don’t mind if they miss on a guy like this - they’ve proven they can develop elite athletes into well-rounded players and it’s better to aim high ceiling.  If they take him it means they have a plan for him and I’ll be fine with it.  

[BADOLBILZ]

20 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I don’t mind if they miss on a guy like this - they’ve proven they can develop elite athletes into well-rounded players and it’s better to aim high ceiling.  If they take him it means they have a plan for him and I’ll be fine with it.  

 

Part of the process of a good drafting team should be knowing that their 1st round pick is one of the few chances they are going to get to find game breakers and foundational pieces.    

 

A high ceiling should be a MUST.    You have to look at it like it's a $20M+ aav type investment.

 

It would be easy to get caught up in the moment.......ponder the uncertainty with the highest ceiling prospects........and just pick the low hanging fruit........like a CB with a seemingly high floor who could possibly step right in and play some CB2.

 

But then 4 years down the line if that player plays well will you feel very compelled to pay the man top dollar to play in your zone defense?

 

If not.......it's the wrong pick.

 

 

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

If the pick isn't a WR it's automatically a fail. There's nothing else that makes sense. Let's go Buffalo. I've wanted a WR in the 1st every year for like forever. It's goddamn time. It, is, God, damn, time. Put excellence around Josh Allen. Diggs is only one guy. Don't be the Packers wasting Aaron Rodgers because you only had one GUY. Like we all enjoy Gabe but don't be lazy and underprepared. Just because it's the fun sexy thing to do don't make it wrong na mean? It ain't 1989. Like, it ain't 1989. The rules are built for this. Defense is illegal. Like what we used to call pass coverage and pass rush is now not legal, bros! Take advantage with ruthlessness. Load up on explosive weapons and bombs a-freaking-way. Freaking carpet bombs. Goddamn atomic bombs. Hillary Clinton in Libya bombs.

 

The only missing ingredient is goddamn Dabes. The only OC since Kevin Gilbride who understood what I am saying to you right now. Dabes didn't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blow.

 

Honor the greatest OC in Bills history (just kidding (but not really)) by finishing the job he ***** started. Can I get an amennnnnnnnnnn-uh

 

I can already see the responses nope not under the influence boys. Just ready to drive 9 hours to downtown BUFFALO for a goddamn Superbowl parade!!! Do it while my father is alive god *****. He deserves it. That boy would go to games by himself at like 11 years old. Is that a different goddamn planet????

 

Don't screw around, just dominate. Ruthless. Bomb all their freaking heads off.  Show the rebel alliance the full power of this station and show every stupidass team that steps to us the full God. Damn. Power of Josh freaking Allen.

 

 

[Richard Noggin]

On 4/8/2022 at 6:53 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

Two points on the drop rate thing:

 

1. He mainly runs downfield routes, so his catch rate doesn't benefit from some of those artificially inflated rates that the guys catching balls behind and around the line of scrimmage have. He does have some drops on his film that are bad drops, no question. But often it is him getting a hand on balls that are high degree of difficulty catches. 

 

2. There was a marked improvement on the 2021 film and the numbers bear that out. His drop rate in 2020 was 28% and that fell to just under 10% last year. Still not ideal, granted, but again some of that is down to the routes he runs and the types of catches he is attempting. 

 

I can see why it might put people off. It's a fair knock. Get open, catch the ball. He hasn't demonstrated a high level of the second element. That said, DK Metcalf's college drop rate was 10% too.... with guys like these, physical freaks who mainly just run vertically down the field, you have to consider the context to the numbers. But for sure, it's a concern and it is why I don't have a 1st round grade on Watson. The problem is I do have a top 32 grade on him and as such unless you are a team in the top 5 or 6 of round 2 your chances of taking him outside the 1st are slim IMO. 

Sounds a lot like the reasons for downgrading Allen as a draft prospect for completion percentage/accuracy issues. Stats tell us a very limited story about projecting future production. Small school freaks require more in-depth scouting. 

[colin]

im guessing we put more resources into huge RAS guys this year.  that's been a theme w beene, and it seems to be accelerating.

 

the wr and that lb mentioned on this thread, there are a couple of safeties who score huge on the RAS, all could be need positions.

 

 

[intimidatortj]

Christian Watson is a real interesting prospect.

 

However, IMO, the Beaner won't force drafting a WR.   

 

Let's say the Bills don't draft a WR in the 1st two rounds, and instead draft another mid-rounder with upside like Gab Davis?

Or, they don't draft a WR until the 5th or 6th round?

 

The worry is Jamison Crowder will leave in free agency next year and then we need a WR.   

 

Here is the thing.  We have Josh Allen.

We can go and sign another FA WR next spring.  A lot of WRs will want to play on the Bills to be paired with Josh Allen. 

 

I don't think Beane forces a WR.    

 

[Einstein's Dog]

19 minutes ago, intimidatortj said:

Christian Watson is a real interesting prospect.

 

However, IMO, the Beaner won't force drafting a WR.   

 

Let's say the Bills don't draft a WR in the 1st two rounds, and instead draft another mid-rounder with upside like Gab Davis?

Or, they don't draft a WR until the 5th or 6th round?

 

The worry is Jamison Crowder will leave in free agency next year and then we need a WR.   

 

Here is the thing.  We have Josh Allen.

We can go and sign another FA WR next spring.  A lot of WRs will want to play on the Bills to be paired with Josh Allen. 

 

I don't think Beane forces a WR.    

 

The question is whether or not you consider C Watson to be a reach.  I've come around on Watson and would like it if he were drafted in the 1st.  Extreme potential.  Help stop the FA WR carousel.  Gives Josh/Dorsey 4-5 years of a raw atheletic WR to train and develop.

 

They don't have to draft a WR, but if one like C Watson is available there is a nice spot for him.  

[Vickveto]

7 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

The question is whether or not you consider C Watson to be a reach.  I've come around on Watson and would like it if he were drafted in the 1st.  Extreme potential.  Help stop the FA WR carousel.  Gives Josh/Dorsey 4-5 years of a raw atheletic WR to train and develop.

 

They don't have to draft a WR, but if one like C Watson is available there is a nice spot for him.  

I am honestly starting to feel like he won’t be there at 25 anymore. There will be a major run wide receivers starting between 17-24. Burks is the only other wide receiver I think it’s worth taking in the first. I think the majority of the best wide receivers in this class will not be drafted in the first round.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Vickveto said:

I am honestly starting to feel like he won’t be there at 25 anymore. There will be a major run wide receivers starting between 17-24. Burks is the only other wide receiver I think it’s worth taking in the first. I think the majority of the best wide receivers in this class will not be drafted in the first round.

 

 

I think he will be there at 25.    It only takes one team but I think fans get new player mania in the months leading up to the draft........while teams in many cases have had set opinions about certain players for years.

 

Scouts don't start learning about these players the season before they are drafted.............they are aware of many of them when they are still in HS in many cases.

 

Doug Whaley drafted Cyrus Kouandjio because he was enthralled with CK having been the top OL in his HS class.........scouts start accumulating favorites way before the last legs of the draft process.

 

For a lot of scouts Watson will be seen as a raw, untested and slightly over-aged player............so I don't see him jumping many of the other more established WR prospects and going top 25.    

 

I think we saw that with Spencer Brown last year..........some people were mocking him as high as round 1..........he cruised until end of round 3.

 

I don't think Watson will fall out of round 2 because of the WR frenzy we have seen this offseason but he is probably no more than a fringe late first in the scouting community, IMO.

Edited April 11, 2022 by BADOLBILZ

[glazeduck]

24 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I think he will be there at 25.    It only takes one team but I think fans get new player mania in the months leading up to the draft........while teams in many cases have had set opinions about certain players for years.

 

Scouts don't start learning about these players the season before they are drafted.............they are aware of many of them when they are still in HS in many cases.

 

Doug Whaley drafted Cyrus Kouandjio because he was enthralled with CK having been the top OL in his HS class.........scouts start accumulating favorites way before the last legs of the draft process.

 

For a lot of scouts Watson will be seen as a raw, untested and slightly over-aged player............so I don't see him jumping many of the other more established WR prospects and going top 25.    

 

I think we saw that with Spencer Brown last year..........some people were mocking him as high as round 1..........he cruised until end of round 3.

 

I don't think Watson will fall out of round 2 because of the WR frenzy we have seen this offseason but he is probably no more than a fringe late first in the scouting community, IMO.

Completely agree. This is a guy that draftniks love to love and NFL types view with great skepticism. 

 

Too add to that, there's the draft math... There's 24 picks ahead of us...

• Certainly 4, possibly 5 will be EDGE defenders
• Likely 4 OTs will go ahead of us
• 1-3 IOL get taken
• 1-3 IDL will be taken
• At least 3, possibly as many as 9 or 10 (unlikely) DBs get taken
• At minimum 1, possibly as many as 3 or 4 QBs get taken ahead of us as well
• Which brings us to the WR class -- by my board there's 7 or 8 guys who could go ahead of us (if you want to include Watson, since this is a 'what-if')

That is, at the most conservative, 21 selections (not including any surprise/non-chalk picks and LB, RB or TEs) and as many as 37. I'm not an advocate of taking Watson, I think he belongs squarely in the mid/back-half of the 2nd round, but if the draft falls such that he, in addition to all of the other viable WRs aren't even available at 25, that likely means other really good players are. Given our ability to find performance (Davis drafted in mid-rounds, McKenzie picked up off Denver's scout team, etc.) I think I'd be very okay with that. 

 

We're in a super bowl window, we can't afford to miss on an early draft pick and Watson is about the farthest thing from a sure draft pick this draft offers. DO NOT WANT (at least at 25...)

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, glazeduck said:

We're in a super bowl window, we can't afford to miss on an early draft pick and Watson is about the farthest thing from a sure draft pick this draft offers. DO NOT WANT (at least at 25...)

I agree C Watson will be there.  He's probably going to be the 6th or 7th WR taken.

 

What I don't agree with is your super bowl window stuff.  The draft is supposed to be for the future.  If the FO thinks a stud WR is the BPA you take him.  A stud WR is extremely valuable and is a key piece in keeping the super bowl window open.

[glazeduck]

7 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I agree C Watson will be there.  He's probably going to be the 6th or 7th WR taken.

 

What I don't agree with is your super bowl window stuff.  The draft is supposed to be for the future.  If the FO thinks a stud WR is the BPA you take him.  A stud WR is extremely valuable and is a key piece in keeping the super bowl window open.

I think you misunderstood me. I wasn't saying don't take a WR, I was saying not to take a guy with a high likelihood of busting. Relative to draft cost, Watson might have the biggest bust potential in the whole draft. My only point was you can't afford to miss on your 1st round pick when you're on the doorstep of a super bowl...