Pounding the table for Christian Watson at 25

[Vickveto]

13 minutes ago, inaugural balls said:

 

Davis is gonna be dynamite.

 

Watch - and be amazed.

I hope he is I want to win a championship. But unless you feel the same way about Kumerow and Stevens then we should probably be discussing somebody who can step in day one outside.

[Warcodered]

 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It's not just the first round.........most of Beane's second round picks have been exhausted on defense as well.

 

Edmunds was a 1 + 2

Epenesa

Basham

 

Ford is the outlier

 

And yes they wheeled and dealed picks away to move up for Allen...........but how did they gain extra capital?    All of the draft capital they acquired in 2018 to get Allen and Edmunds was done by trading 3 offensive players and moving back out of the Mahomes pick spot with KC.    

 

You can argue that those trades worked out so they show how smart Beane is...........but by the same token NONE of Beane's MANY notable defensive free agent signings have panned out........Star/Murphy/Vontae/Norman/Jefferson/Butler..........nothing but busts with the exception of Mario Addison who was underwhelming at best.

 

And look at it this way...........when they need a 1 Tech to play 40% of the snaps they pay Jones $7M aav on a multi-year deal......when they need a slot receiver they pay $2M.........when they need starting guards they pay $4M and $6M.     I mean Bates deal is closer to backup slot CB Siran Neal's $3M+ or backup LB Matakevich original $4M aav deal than it is what they played Jones to play 60% less snaps than him.  

 

Quality on defense has been consistently prioritized over offense.   It's hard to argue otherwise............so why doth you protest so much?

Yes……it absolutely was just the first round that I was commenting on.  
 

you’re barking up the wrong tree right now…..while trying to move the goal posts.  
 

yes, I know that Beane has prioritized defense over offense.  I’ve said that several times over the last couple years.  

[Vickveto]

This is our championship window it is time to stack the deck before contracts and age break this team apart. We are not in the conversation  of best weapon groups when I talk to people, and I agree  we need more speed Watson/Williams/Burk and breece hall/Kenneth Walker/James Cook

I want two big time potential play makers early in the draft. I hope we trade up this year too and go all-in.

[Vickveto]

 

[K-9]

Chris Watson? He’s just a punt catcher.
 

 

Edited April 7, 2022 by K-9

[Vickveto]

21 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

 

9.62 wesson 

9.99 Watson 

still very intrigued sign me up

[Warcodered]

 

[Locomark]

This kid will be there at the end of round 2. 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Warcodered said:

 

 

Not saying Matt is copying me but..... go look at my post in the sleepers thread! Interesting he thinks he will go round 3. I think that is too early... but the kid does a lot of things well. 

[No_Matter_What]

8 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It's not just the first round.........most of Beane's second round picks have been exhausted on defense as well.

 

Edmunds was a 1 + 2

Epenesa

Basham

 

Ford is the outlier

 

And yes they wheeled and dealed picks away to move up for Allen...........but how did they gain extra capital?    All of the draft capital they acquired in 2018 to get Allen and Edmunds was done by trading 3 offensive players and moving back out of the Mahomes pick spot with KC.    

 

You can argue that those trades worked out so they show how smart Beane is...........but by the same token NONE of Beane's MANY notable defensive free agent signings have panned out........Star/Murphy/Vontae/Norman/Jefferson/Butler..........nothing but busts with the exception of Mario Addison who was underwhelming at best.

 

And look at it this way...........when they need a 1 Tech to play 40% of the snaps they pay Jones $7M aav on a multi-year deal......when they need a slot receiver they pay $2M.........when they need starting guards they pay $4M and $6M.     I mean Bates deal is closer to backup slot CB Siran Neal's $3M+ or backup LB Matakevich original $4M aav deal than it is what they played Jones to play 60% less snaps than him.  

 

Quality on defense has been consistently prioritized over offense.   It's hard to argue otherwise............so why doth you protest so much?

I find it really interesting how for Edmunds you count also 2nd rounder we spent to move up but for Diggs you refuse to consider it as using a first round for offense

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

I find it really interesting how for Edmunds you count also 2nd rounder we spent to move up but for Diggs you refuse to consider it as using a first round for offense

 

 

They used a first rounder on Diggs..........they didn't draft him.

 

Drafting an unknown is being willing and confident enough in your ability to evaluate personnel to take more risk.........which is what they've shown wrt defense........probably because McDermott is a defensive HC and they have more trust in themselves on that side of the ball.  

 

And frankly,  none of us should have trusted their eye for offense based on the offenses they put on the field in 2017-2018-2019............it was easy to understand why they would trade for an expensive proven commodity.    Understandable but a reflection of weakness nonetheless.

 

What is the opportunity cost of not being more offense-centric?   Well, everyone knew that 2020 was a tremendous WR draft..........and the player that was selected with their traded pick was almost instantly the equal of Diggs......surpassed him last season.........and is playing on a contract with just a $4M aav.

[stinky finger]

20 hours ago, Vickveto said:

I hope he is I want to win a championship. But unless you feel the same way about Kumerow and Stevens then we should probably be discussing somebody who can step in day one outside.

I’m all for procuring another quality WR. 
 

Not because I worry about Gabe.

[BADOLBILZ]

20 hours ago, Warcodered said:

 

 

 

Woods may have great workout numbers but he runs like an old man........when his knees go up his shoulders go up........it's very disco-esque........lotta' wasted motion.  He is the opposite of a smooth athlete and definitely doesn't play anywhere near those speed and agility numbers on the field.    And for an ex-QB.......he doesn't handle the football well........shaky hands.  He is huge and can block so there is hope.   But he was on NFLN the other day and they were interviewing him and talking about Kyle Pitts comps.

 

[CapeBreton]

6 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Woods may have great workout numbers but he runs like an old man........when his knees go up his shoulders go up........it's very disco-esque........lotta' wasted motion.  He is the opposite of a smooth athlete and definitely doesn't play anywhere near those speed and agility numbers on the field.    And for an ex-QB.......he doesn't handle the football well........shaky hands.  He is huge and can block so there is hope.   But he was on NFLN the other day and they were interviewing him and talking about Kyle Pitts comps.

 

It’s weird, I find Jelani Woods looks slow and not super athletic on tape but he destroyed the combine. Meanwhile, a guy like Isaiah Likely looks fast/athletic on tape but had a dreadful combine and very poor 40 time. I think I’d rather trust my eyes with what I see during the game instead of a few practice drills. 

 

[DrPJax]

On 4/4/2022 at 5:19 PM, OldTimer1960 said:

None of the higher rated WRs were at the Senior Bowl, so “best WR at the Senior Bowl” is nice, but doesn’t necessarily mean that he is a first round pick.

 

Don’t get me wrong, I like what I have seen of him, he is a great athlete beyond just his 40 time and he has outstanding size, but drops and level of competition leave me wondering.  Mid-2nd?  Sure.  Pick 25 with screaming need at corner, I would think risk and opportunity cost too high.

Great points!  In another thread on here I saw stats posted showing he had one of the highest drop rates , like 12% or so , among this current crop of receivers. That’s enough of a warning to drop him out of first round consideration given all the talent available. Might be a great second round pick depending on how the board falls and how pressed we are to fill the corner need etc, at least from a depth perspective. Other drop rates were about half that much for the wrs considered 1 st round talent. It’s pretty basic, your #1 trait for a wr has to be you can catch the ball first above all else , and that drop rate was against lower talent as well. So with our wr corp already in place , I’m not using a 1 st to then have questions about reliability; more willing to accept that risk with later picks.  

 

One interesting fact that Chris Brown pointed out was that since 2017 , 43% of the Bills draft choices played in the senior bowl !  So having a good week / game there has obviously carried weight with this staff. Tasker felt it was the icing on the cake so to speak , sorting out last questions and issues with close candidates.  It’s a whole week around NFL coaching and they scrutinize all behavior.  For example , one gm told Tasker he watched a guy miss the trash can throwing away a cup , AND he watched to see if the guy went over from the bench to pick it up or not !  It’s that level of scrutiny and shows how even little things can make a difference on considering if a guy is coachable.  So if he had a good week at the senior bowl , he probably is certainly on the Bills radar, but I would suspect that drop rate is also on their radar. Beane does like his high RAS guys , but I’m not sure this wr is going to fall in the right area value wise , and if he should go in the first/ early second , I would bet it will be to a different team.  I would be happy if he ended up with us in the second , but I wouldn’t trade up because of that drop rate, unless I was convinced poor QB play was a factor for it being so high.  It might take a year on the ps for him to blossom and I would lean more toward getting production this year for those first two picks , but if he is standing out on their board given their senior bowl bias , he could be a great bargain in the second round. 

[GunnerBill]

32 minutes ago, DrPJax said:

Great points!  In another thread on here I saw stats posted showing he had one of the highest drop rates , like 12% or so , among this current crop of receivers. 

 

Two points on the drop rate thing:

 

1. He mainly runs downfield routes, so his catch rate doesn't benefit from some of those artificially inflated rates that the guys catching balls behind and around the line of scrimmage have. He does have some drops on his film that are bad drops, no question. But often it is him getting a hand on balls that are high degree of difficulty catches. 

 

2. There was a marked improvement on the 2021 film and the numbers bear that out. His drop rate in 2020 was 28% and that fell to just under 10% last year. Still not ideal, granted, but again some of that is down to the routes he runs and the types of catches he is attempting. 

 

I can see why it might put people off. It's a fair knock. Get open, catch the ball. He hasn't demonstrated a high level of the second element. That said, DK Metcalf's college drop rate was 10% too.... with guys like these, physical freaks who mainly just run vertically down the field, you have to consider the context to the numbers. But for sure, it's a concern and it is why I don't have a 1st round grade on Watson. The problem is I do have a top 32 grade on him and as such unless you are a team in the top 5 or 6 of round 2 your chances of taking him outside the 1st are slim IMO. 

[colin]

so, i'm presuming dk metcalf was just behind this guy on the total athletic index score (i could be wrong).  How is this guy getting talked about in the 1st and dk fell to the second?  and we missed him for fatty fat fat ford!  

 

im guessing the issue there is that metcalf obv shoulda been higher, not that this watson kid should be much lower.

 

looking at the top 4 ranked athletic guys, they were all super producers.  Matt jones is the exception, but if i recall correctly, he was a drug addict who couldn't hack being a pro athlete.  he still went from qb to wr and made some shocking one handed catches for TDs for the short time he played.

[GunnerBill]

42 minutes ago, colin said:

so, i'm presuming dk metcalf was just behind this guy on the total athletic index score (i could be wrong).  How is this guy getting talked about in the 1st and dk fell to the second?  and we missed him for fatty fat fat ford!  

 

im guessing the issue there is that metcalf obv shoulda been higher, not that this watson kid should be much lower.

 

looking at the top 4 ranked athletic guys, they were all super producers.  Matt jones is the exception, but if i recall correctly, he was a drug addict who couldn't hack being a pro athlete.  he still went from qb to wr and made some shocking one handed catches for TDs for the short time he played.

 

DK was talked about a lot as a 1st rounder too, although I have the exact same high second on both. I was not as shocked as most DK slid out of the 1st, but everyone was surprised he fell as far as he did. I think the two areas where Watson is a cleaner prospect than DK are health and personality. Watson from everything you hear is a great kid with a pro attitude. DK had been hurt and had some questions about the consistency of his effort. On the flip side DK was coming out of the SEC and Watson is coming out of a much lower lever of competition. 

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, CapeBreton said:

It’s weird, I find Jelani Woods looks slow and not super athletic on tape but he destroyed the combine. Meanwhile, a guy like Isaiah Likely looks fast/athletic on tape but had a dreadful combine and very poor 40 time. I think I’d rather trust my eyes with what I see during the game instead of a few practice drills. 

 

 

 

And another thing about Woods...........his size seems to be a detriment after the catch..........instead of bowling defenders over his gangly awkwardness just seems to make him easier to tackle.   Maybe this is another Logan Thomas situation and he makes broad improvements with more experience..........but the hype about his RAS really doesn't match up with his tape AT ALL.