Pounding the table for Christian Watson at 25

[Coach Tuesday]

7 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

@Vickveto I'd encourage you to look deeper into the metrics that most often lead to pro success. One of the leading indicators is breakout age and Pickens has one of the youngest, ever at 18.5 -- basically, how early did this kid dominate college football and he did it almost immediately. He also, in that freshman season, had a 27% dominator rating, so he was REALLY good, right away (in the SEC, no less).

 

As for his speed? The guy ran a 4.47 while rehabbing a torn ACL, so he's certainly not slow. 

Catch radius? He's 5th in this draft class among the realistic top WRs with a 77 3/8 wingspan.

His RAS (again, coming off of a major injury) was 8th best among ALL WRs -- 3rd among relevant ones.

His freak score was 4th among top WRs as well (and once again, see: tear, ACL)

 

By the data, mid-ACL-tear-recovery George Pickens is easily a top 10 wr prospect. Once he's healthy, I'd argue top 5. Then, go put on the tape. The kid is a DOG. He blocks his @$$ off, he plays with emotion and intensity, his swagger just jumps off the screen. You see a player who's average at everything, I see a kid readymade for the NFL with zero weaknesses and nothing but sky-high ceiling. 

Supposedly Green Bay is very interested in him as a potential replacement for Adams.

[glazeduck]

1 minute ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Supposedly Green Bay is very interested in him as a potential replacement for Adams.

I can absolutely see that. I won't be at all surprised if he's drafted ahead of Watson (GASP!!!), Pierce, Burks, possibly even the Ohio State kids. To me he's all upside with next to exceedingly limited bust potential, and that's absolutely what most GMs are looking for in this draft (especially when you've got Aaron Rodgers needing immediately reliable weapons).

 

That's a good place to be when your competition is a speed merchant coming off a more recent ACL tear, 2 guys who look best aligned in the slot, an enigma that hasn't lived up to hype (Burks), and a small-school athletic phenom without the performance to back up his draft hype.

[KOKBILLS]

1 hour ago, Vickveto said:

You still did not answer the question nor did the scout which of those four categories is pickens  going to be elite in because all the league wide receivers in the league or elite in at least one of those categories so don’t tiptoe around it and no 4.47 is not enough he’s very good like I said but he’s not a blazer I do not need safety help for Pickens. You have made zero points I just explained how four wide receivers in the first round could possibly become elite because they have an elite attribute but not Pickens. If he was so ALPHA he would be RAC beast like Burk. He is a second round pick he can probably become a good two. That’s not what you spend a first round draft pick on. You spend it on somebody who you think can become an elite receiver not just very good.

 

What?...Anyway...Have a good one...

[Vickveto]

16 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

You are kind of overlooking that Diggs was nowhere near your definition of “elite” when he was drafted (in the 5th round).  He wasn’t the route runner then that he is now.  Same withe Cooper Kupp. 
 

I think your criteria are missing some things and, again, it is unrealistic to think that every first round pick will be elite.  It is perfectly OK and a win to get “just” a good starter and every year there are guys who don’t pan out even from round 1.

There is irrelevant every team missed on those players  most teams five times Teams miss on players and players develop every year In order to be a first round pick worthy of a first round grade you have to be projected to be elite and come in day one a good player there are thousands of players eligible to get drafted in the NFL every year you better be an elite player with some elite intangibles to be worthy of a first round pick.

[OldTimer1960]

2 minutes ago, Vickveto said:

There is irrelevant every team missed on those players  most teams five times Teams miss on players and players develop every year In order to be a first round pick worthy of a first round grade you have to be projected to be elite and come in day one a good player there are thousands of players eligible to get drafted in the NFL every year you better be an elite player with some elite intangibles to be worthy of a first round pick.

I just flat disagree.  Every year there are 32 first round picks, if there are not 32 players who fit your definition of “elite”, teams just go with who they think are the best available.  

[Vickveto]

1 minute ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I just flat disagree.  Every year there are 32 first round picks, if there are not 32 players who fit your definition of “elite”, teams just go with who they think are the best available.  

I will start off by saying if people think Pickens is a first round pick OK that’s fine I just stated in my reasons why I do not believe he is a first but a second round grade.

 

Depending on the draft class The amount of first ground grades varies it may not even be 32 first round grades. so therefore you are semi-correct.but  it could be all the way up to 45 first round grades from what I’ve seen. Different teams have different draft strategies. Most teams will grab a first round graded player for a position of need.Some teams impact. Genuine BPA drafting is rare.

[Coach Tuesday]

Just now, Vickveto said:

I will repeat if people think Pickens is a first round pick that is fine I believe he has a second round grade nobody here has stated that they believe pickens will become a top 15 receiver or even an elite receiver. They say he will be very good and I can see that.

 

therefore nobody actually believes he is worthy of a first round draft pick. That’s my opinion.

What does that have to do with what I posted?

[Vickveto]

5 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

What does that have to do with what I posted?

I think it’s a smokescreen but I guess only time will tell. I think they take Olave or Watson

[OldTimer1960]

On 4/4/2022 at 5:32 PM, BillsFanForever19 said:

He's one of my favorite WR fits for what Buffalo's looking for. There was a time when I was all in on him as our 2nd Round pick. When I do mock draft simulations, I always take him if he's on the board in Round 2.

 

However, he reportedly has been flying up Draft Boards and could now be selected at the end of Round 1. I think 25 is too high for him. If there's a run at CB and WR where 5 CB's and 6 WR's are taken in Round 1 - maybe. 

 

But I think my strategy is CB Round 1 and then if he's on the board at the top of Round 2, try and trade up. Or if it does fall that way where 11 of the first 24 picks are CB's and WR's, I'd try and trade down for in an extra pick in Round 2 or 3 and maybe Watson is one of those top picks a little later than 25.

Costs a lot to go from Bills’ pick to top of round 2.  Their 2nd + 3rd + 4th does not likely get them to the top of the 2nd.  That might get you to about pick 38.

[Manther]

On 4/4/2022 at 5:48 PM, John from Riverside said:

If we are gonna do it....trade down.....get an additional 2nd

Take your guy, don't get cute.

 

Regarding a trade down, I am not against it.  Get your guy before acquiring assets IF you still want your guy.  Depends how many WRs are off the board.  My guess is many at 25, if so, take him if he is your guy.

[Patrick Duffy]

19 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Come on man. You understood my point though and it’s obvious their first priority is defense year in and year out.

You think there's a chance they switch it up this draft and go offense with 1st pick?

Edited April 6, 2022 by Sheneneh Jenkins

[NewEra]

41 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Come on man. You understood my point though and it’s obvious their first priority is defense year in and year out.

Then you should say that…..you go ridiculously overboard. 

[Alphadawg7]

I like Watson a lot.

 

But...now that Diggs is extended and hearing the way Emmanuel Sanders GUSHED about Davis, I think its very unlikely we take a WR round 1 unless there was just nothing else on the board that Beane felt good about.  In which case, I think he trades back if that happened.  

 

If anyone hasn't yet seen it, Sanders gushed about Davis talking about all the greats hes been around like AB, D. Thomas, M. Thomas, etc and said Davis is just built different and hes a pro bowl level WR he expects to break out big time this year.  Thats high praise coming from a great pro like Sanders whose played with a ton of talented QB's and WR's.  

 

So for me, I think first round is not likely to be WR post Diggs extension. 

[Vickveto]

17 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I like Watson a lot.

 

But...now that Diggs is extended and hearing the way Emmanuel Sanders GUSHED about Davis, I think its very unlikely we take a WR round 1 unless there was just nothing else on the board that Beane felt good about.  In which case, I think he trades back if that happened.  

 

If anyone hasn't yet seen it, Sanders gushed about Davis talking about all the greats hes been around like AB, D. Thomas, M. Thomas, etc and said Davis is just built different and hes a pro bowl level WR he expects to break out big time this year.  Thats high praise coming from a great pro like Sanders whose played with a ton of talented QB's and WR's.  

 

So for me, I think first round is not likely to be WR post Diggs extension. 

I’m not sold on Davis but fine let’s say you’re right and he is good  if Davis or Diggs goes down to injury Jake Kumerow is going to be starting outside I think I’ll take a pass on that give me more talent. I don’t think he has the talent to be single coverage consistently. We throw the ball 70% of the time which means Davis and Diggs have to take breaks  I don’t want to see Jake Kumerow seeing any meaningful snaps. Him and Stevens are practice squad level players IMO. we are one injury away.

Edited April 6, 2022 by Vickveto

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, NewEra said:

I didn’t pretend anything.  Offense WAS prioritized over defense in the first round of that draft.  That isn’t made up. 
 

Who was arguing the bolded point? Not I. First round was the talking point….not “early in the draft”.
 

No one is arguing any of the other points you’re talking about…..but carry on.   

 

 

It's not just the first round.........most of Beane's second round picks have been exhausted on defense as well.

 

Edmunds was a 1 + 2

Epenesa

Basham

 

Ford is the outlier

 

And yes they wheeled and dealed picks away to move up for Allen...........but how did they gain extra capital?    All of the draft capital they acquired in 2018 to get Allen and Edmunds was done by trading 3 offensive players and moving back out of the Mahomes pick spot with KC.    

 

You can argue that those trades worked out so they show how smart Beane is...........but by the same token NONE of Beane's MANY notable defensive free agent signings have panned out........Star/Murphy/Vontae/Norman/Jefferson/Butler..........nothing but busts with the exception of Mario Addison who was underwhelming at best.

 

And look at it this way...........when they need a 1 Tech to play 40% of the snaps they pay Jones $7M aav on a multi-year deal......when they need a slot receiver they pay $2M.........when they need starting guards they pay $4M and $6M.     I mean Bates deal is closer to backup slot CB Siran Neal's $3M+ or backup LB Matakevich original $4M aav deal than it is what they played Jones to play 60% less snaps than him.  

 

Quality on defense has been consistently prioritized over offense.   It's hard to argue otherwise............so why doth you protest so much?

[Alphadawg7]

11 minutes ago, Vickveto said:

I’m not sold on Davis but fine let’s say you’re right and he is good  if Davis or Diggs goes down to injury Jake Kumerow is going to be starting outside I think I’ll take a pass on that give me more talent. I don’t think he has the talent to be single coverage consistently. We throw the ball 70% of the time which means Davis and Diggs have to take breaks  I don’t want to see Jake Kumerow seeing any meaningful snaps. Him and Stevens our practice squad level players IMO we are one injury away.

I did not say we wouldnt draft one.  I said we won’t take one in the first.  
 

Look around the league, most the top 10 WRs were not drafted in the first round.  There is this obsession as if we have to get one in the first, but that’s just not the case.  
 

Diggs, Adam’s, , Kupp, Deebo, AJ, DK, Hill, Thomas, etc were all not first round picks.   
 

We can wait and get another WR in round 2,3, or 4

And watch Sanders talk about Davis:

 

 

 

Edited April 6, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[Vickveto]

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I did not say we wouldnt draft one.  I said we won’t take one in the first.  
 

Look around the league, most the top 10 WRs were not drafted in the first round.  There is this obsession as if we have to get one in the first, but that’s just not the case.  
 

Diggs, Adam’s, , Kupp, Deebo, AJ, DK, Hill, Thomas, etc were all not first round picks.   
 

We can wait and get another WR in round 2,3, or 4

And watch Sanders talk about Davis:

 

 

 

of course he’s going to talk good about the bills we may call him if injuries get thick. Gabe Davis did not win that starting job and that monster game the defense dedicated themselves to double teaming diggs. And the most important part is I think Watson is going to be the best player available at 25 if Burk falls I think he will be worth the pick as well.

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, Vickveto said:

of course he’s going to talk good about the bills we may call him if injuries get thick. Gabe Davis did not win that starting job and that monster game the defense dedicated themselves to double teaming diggs. And the most important part is I think Watson is going to be the best player available at 25 if Burk falls I think he will be worth the pick as well.

 

Its not about the Bills, its what he specifically said about Davis.  And he gushed about Davis in multiple segments.  I don't know why you aren't sold on Davis, he has produced when called upon and seems poised for a breakout.  

 

Either way, this obsessive need by some people to take a WR first round is puzzling to me.  Most the best WR's in the game now and many in the past were not first round picks.  I mean, lets make a list of arguably the top 10 in no particular order:

• Adams
• Diggs
• Hill
• AJ Brown
• Deebo
• Kupp
• Hopkins
• Jefferson
• Chase
• Metcalf

Only 3 of them were first round picks.  Then you have lots of other guys too after that like Lockett, McLaurin, Keenan Allen, etc.  

 

So I wouldn't get your hopes up, I will say its highly unlikely we take a WR in the first round, nor do we need to.  While you are worried about who is going to give Diggs and Davis breaks, we literally don't have enough corners to start week 1 on the roster.  And lets say we get lucky and Tre is available to start week 1, its going to take a while before he finds his form again.  

 

And in the loaded AFC, we are going to need more speed and depth at CB.  Not to mention all the speed we have to contend with just in our division now with the likes of the Dolphins who might have the fastest offense in the NFL now.  

[stinky finger]

23 minutes ago, Vickveto said:

of course he’s going to talk good about the bills we may call him if injuries get thick. Gabe Davis did not win that starting job and that monster game the defense dedicated themselves to double teaming diggs. And the most important part is I think Watson is going to be the best player available at 25 if Burk falls I think he will be worth the pick as well.

 

Davis is gonna be dynamite.

 

Watch - and be amazed.

[Vickveto]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Its not about the Bills, its what he specifically said about Davis.  And he gushed about Davis in multiple segments.  I don't know why you aren't sold on Davis, he has produced when called upon and seems poised for a breakout.  

 

Either way, this obsessive need by some people to take a WR first round is puzzling to me.  Most the best WR's in the game now and many in the past were not first round picks.  I mean, lets make a list of arguably the top 10 in no particular order:

• Adams
• Diggs
• Hill
• AJ Brown
• Deebo
• Kupp
• Hopkins
• Jefferson
• Chase
• Metcalf

Only 3 of them were first round picks.  Then you have lots of other guys too after that like Lockett, McLaurin, Keenan Allen, etc.  

 

So I wouldn't get your hopes up, I will say its highly unlikely we take a WR in the first round, nor do we need to.  While you are worried about who is going to give Diggs and Davis breaks, we literally don't have enough corners to start week 1 on the roster.  And lets say we get lucky and Tre is available to start week 1, its going to take a while before he finds his form again.  

 

And in the loaded AFC, we are going to need more speed and depth at CB.  Not to mention all the speed we have to contend with just in our division now with the likes of the Dolphins who might have the fastest offense in the NFL now.  

The bills are in a unique position we really don’t have any holes. if we land Gilmore or Haden those two will probably perform better than any rookie corner. With this unique position that the bills are in I think you take the best playmaker available in the first as long as the grade matches. I watch Metcalf and Claypool pass us and I thought they were worth the picks I don’t want to see it happen again with Watson. If we got McDuffe or boothe I wouldn’t be mad at all. The only player that would piss me off is Drake London in the first round. But I was still trust the GM saw something I didn’t see.