If the Bills think that Tre will be ready by the start of the season, does that change their draft strategy?

[LyndonvilleBill]

Even when Tre returns,  we still need a CB. The way I am looking at it, Tre will not be 100% himself this year regardless of when he starts. For this year I am looking at it as Tre being #2 seeing he will not be 100%. So draft a #1 this year, use Tre as #2 and Jackson as #3. When/if Tre returns to 100% what's the problem with having 2 top corners? Especially when you look at the WR's we are going to face. Not saying we have to trade up or even take a CB at 25, but we better get someone that can play as a 1B CB until Tre is 100%.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

15 hours ago, njbuff said:

We have seen players come back from Tre's injury in relatively short order in recent years, but Tre is a CB and he relies on cutting and changing direction more than any player out there.

 

Everybody is saying late October, early November for a Tre return.

 

But what if his rehab is coming along very swimmingly according to McDermott and could be ready for week one.

 

Does this change everything or is a CB still high on your list?

unless there was other than the typical injury to where it is career threatening 

 

I don’t see why, other than depth.  

[machine gun kelly]

Even if Tre comes back in September, we still would value most on defense with a top flight CB.  The thought of Tre, this pick, Hyde, Poyer, and Taron is daunting.  With the upgraded front four with better run stuffers and penetrators, along with sideline to sideline LBs is awesome.  That’s a blanket.  A true #1 defense against this year the AFCN, NFCN (Packers), KC, and TN, and the Rams.

 

Well, looking at the draft chart evolved from the Jimmy Johnson chart avg. our 25th pick is valued at 720 pts..  Beane won’t likely want to give away future picks as we’ll need cheap talent as to the ballooning contracts of our top guys so we are left with this years pts for our picks or players.  I’m no guru to look at players and assess their value so I’m throwing that out.  If people want to throw spaghetti on the wall and say Moss, Edmunds, or whoever, I wouldn’t know how to give an educated guess as to their value.

 

From the article on potential trade partners, the most attractive is Philly at 15 and 17.  I don’t think we have the juice to get to 5 or 7 with the Giants.

 

So the 15th pick is worth 1050 pts. - 1050-720=330 needed

 

The 17th pick is worth 950 pts. - 950-720=230 pts. Needed

 

Well here are our picks values.  Remember we’d love to keep our 2nd at least for a WR, G if at all possible.

 

Bills Rounds

1- 720

2- 330

3- 145

4- 42

5- 22.6

6- 15.8

6- 8.6

7- 1

7- traded for Keenum

 

For Buffalo math to make it close, we’d have to swap 1’s, and give away our 3rd, and 4th.  Next years picks if we went that way are less valuable than this years.

 

Would you don’t it, or what would you like do if Beane’s Apple of his eye at CB is there at 15th or 17th.

 

This is just for fun as impossible to input all the variables and also what are the needs of you’re trade partner.  The only way to get to the best CB would be to trade with the Giants at 5th or 7th if that stud is there.  Schein is a friend, but shrewd.  My guess is we’d have to give Edmunds, and Moss, and swap 1sts, and other picks.  Is that worth it?

 

I do this every year, and everyone dissects this message.  I’m not right, just it’s important you look up the draft chart and make suggestions on what is truly feasible, not just what’s good for us, and not pie in the sky.

 

Or maybe you just think a role guy and don’t care about another stud CB.

 

[SCBills]

If we trade up for a CB I’ll be pretty disgusted.  I could see a trade-up for Olave or Williams though.. those guys may not make it to 25, but could be within trade-up reach and would be that missing speed piece on offense. 
 

I don’t want a CB in RD1, but if Andrew Booth is there at 25, I wouldn’t hate it. 
 

If that were to happen, RD’s 2-4 should all be directed to Offense. 
 

If we go Offense RD1, I’m sure we’ll go CB in RD2 or RD3.. RD4 at the latest if we get a reliable vet before the Draft. 
 

I don’t think Tre’s return time affects any of this.  We need 2 more corners regardless.  I’d venture to guess that their view of Dane Jackson affects what we do at cornerback far more.  
 

 

[Long Suffering Fan]

14 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I don’t think Tre’s return time affects any of this.  We need 2 more corners regardless.  I’d venture to guess that their view of Dane Jackson affects what we do at cornerback far more.  

 

My guess would be that the Bills want to get better at the corner position as compared to last year.  I base that on the fact that Wallace left for $4M/year.  Despite any nice words coming out of OBD, I think that says that Wallace was merely okay at the position (in their opinion).  The only other reason for letting him walk like that would be if they thought Dane Jackson was better, but Wallace was definitely ahead of Jackson on the depth chart.

 

To me, that all screams they will draft a corner on day 1 or 2.

[jethro_tull]

NO.  Smart teams draft for next year's needs and future development.  No way any player they pick will be able to fill TW's shoes.  

[SCBills]

15 minutes ago, Long Suffering Fan said:

 

My guess would be that the Bills want to get better at the corner position as compared to last year.  I base that on the fact that Wallace left for $4M/year.  Despite any nice words coming out of OBD, I think that says that Wallace was merely okay at the position (in their opinion).  The only other reason for letting him walk like that would be if they thought Dane Jackson was better, but Wallace was definitely ahead of Jackson on the depth chart.

 

To me, that all screams they will draft a corner on day 1 or 2.

I agree that they let Levi walk.  They clearly wanted to move on from him.  IMO, they want to get faster in the secondary.. and Levi is the opposite of that.  Faster doesn’t necessarily mean RD1 CB. 

[BillsFan130]

17 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

The Bills take BPA round 1 - miraculously it will be a CB.  The Bills are thin at this key position. It would not shock me to see them pick another in rd 2 or rd 3. 

I hope so.

 

But apparently there are 4 good corners that are first round worthy and they are all projected to go ahead of the bills.

 

Maybe the bills would trade back if that's the case and then use more ammunition to move up in the 2nd and 3rd round.

[Buddo]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

I agree that they let Levi walk.  They clearly wanted to move on from him.  IMO, they want to get faster in the secondary.. and Levi is the opposite of that.  Faster doesn’t necessarily mean RD1 CB. 

 

While it doesn't really matter, I'm not so sure they just let Levi 'walk'. I think they did it, in part, because they were signing McKissic, and needed the $ for him.

 

If they didn't have a deal with him, I think they may well have brought Levi back, because I think at $4 million per, he's good value, and Beane hinted about that on the Macafee show he did.

 

I don't think re-signing Levi would have changed anything about their strategy much either. He would probably fill the idea of a vet CB, that we seem to think we need, and not make any difference to our draft strategy, which I'm convinced will yield a CB in the first two rounds, depending on who falls where.

[Dr. Who]

56 minutes ago, Buddo said:

 

While it doesn't really matter, I'm not so sure they just let Levi 'walk'. I think they did it, in part, because they were signing McKissic, and needed the $ for him.

 

If they didn't have a deal with him, I think they may well have brought Levi back, because I think at $4 million per, he's good value, and Beane hinted about that on the Macafee show he did.

 

I don't think re-signing Levi would have changed anything about their strategy much either. He would probably fill the idea of a vet CB, that we seem to think we need, and not make any difference to our draft strategy, which I'm convinced will yield a CB in the first two rounds, depending on who falls where.

I do think this added to Beane's chagrin with the Commodes.

[MasterStrategist]

4 hours ago, SCBills said:

If we trade up for a CB I’ll be pretty disgusted.  I could see a trade-up for Olave or Williams though.. those guys may not make it to 25, but could be within trade-up reach and would be that missing speed piece on offense. 
 

I don’t want a CB in RD1, but if Andrew Booth is there at 25, I wouldn’t hate it. 
 

If that were to happen, RD’s 2-4 should all be directed to Offense. 
 

If we go Offense RD1, I’m sure we’ll go CB in RD2 or RD3.. RD4 at the latest if we get a reliable vet before the Draft. 
 

I don’t think Tre’s return time affects any of this.  We need 2 more corners regardless.  I’d venture to guess that their view of Dane Jackson affects what we do at cornerback far more.  
 

 

Agree, except I'm a big fan of Dotson and think he might be there at 25.  The potential issue is that alot of teams in that 15-24 range will be considering WRs, also will be interesting how the inflated/recent WR contracts may impact draft strategy (ie: extra year of control for Rd1).

 

Corner in Round 2 is ideal, IMO, someone who can compete with Dane and potentially hold down a spot until Tre is ready.

 

Then focus on OL, rounds 3-4, rest of draft can be finding value/role players.  Wouldn't be a surprise to see us move around in the 3rd-5th range, I think that will be a sweet spot for value this year at certain positions.

 

 

[Logic]

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Did drafting two DE's in round 1 and 2 last season "ensure" that the pass rush would be strong?

 

No it did not..........throwing numbers at a perceived problem in the draft doesn't guarantee anything. 

 

Beane is a confidence man at the mic.........so we know he's not afraid to bald-face lie to the fans or media in his job............but I do believe him when he says that he didn't select a CB early in the draft last year because he didn't think any of them could beat out Dane Jackson.    

 

McBeane have had undrafted Levi Wallace and late rounder Dane Jackson starting a lot of games with great success the past couple seasons...........they like some of their low pedigree reserves including toolsy Nick McCloud who ran a 4.37 at the ND pro day last year and has 32" arms.    

 

Adding 3 new CB's to the existing mix of White/Jackson/Johnson/Neal/Lewis/McCloud/Griffin isn't out of the question but it also could end up causing a roster crunch and/or leaving the Bills with a disgruntled vet on the bench and a high draft pick struggling to get playing time ahead of more experienced young players who have been in the system.

 

If they eschew BPA to throw numbers at CB that would be a mistake.

 

And how did that work out for them against good passing offenses last year? How did it work for them against the Kansas City Chiefs two years in a row in the playoffs? How effective were undrafted Levi Wallace and late rounder Dane Jackson in limiting Tyreek Hill in the most important games of the year? 

I would contend that while McDermott and Frazier are quite capable of coaching up late round corners in order to field a generally good pass defense, the lack of talent at CB2 (and once Tre was injured, at CB1) limited their defense schematically and left them vulnerable against good passing offenses. There were other factors, of course, but look at the defensive performance the first time we played Kansas City in 2021 vs the playoff game. Having Dane Jackson and Levi Wallace as the two starting corners absolutely cost the Bills.

I don't believe that subtracting Levi Wallace and then adding in any combination of Nick McCloud, Olaijah Griffin, Cam Lewis, or Siran Neal is going to IMPROVE the secondary from what we saw in that playoff loss in KC, and make no mistake, the secondary needs to be better than it was in that game. Tre returning will help, but we don't know how many games he'll miss or how good he'll be immediately upon return. And even then, upgrading the CB2 spot -- I'm not ready to just hand it to Dane Jackson -- should be a priority. And on top of THAT, improved depth at outside corner is a necessity, as we saw after Thanksgiving last year. 

As for "eschewing BPA", I don't think I mentioned that anywhere in my post. I'd like to see two corners taken in this draft, but I didn't say that they should force it, or that one of them had to be a 1st rounder. I have said, and will repeat, that I'd actually prefer they use their 1st round pick on an offensive player. But between rounds 2-7, and with 8 picks overall, there's no reason they can't draft a couple corners. The pile of undrafteds (McCloud, Griffin, Lewis) is not enough to dissuade me from this notion. The AFC is loaded with good quarterbacks and good passing offenses. It's high time the Bills move past this "we can get by with undrafted guys from Alcorn State!" phase and add some outside corner talent opposite White.
 

[Boatdrinks]

No . Either way draft should be :
Round 1 WR

Round 2 CB or move back into round 1 with trade up 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

And how did that work out for them against good passing offenses last year? How did it work for them against the Kansas City Chiefs two years in a row in the playoffs? How effective were undrafted Levi Wallace and late rounder Dane Jackson in limiting Tyreek Hill in the most important games of the year? 

I would contend that while McDermott and Frazier are quite capable of coaching up late round corners in order to field a generally good pass defense, the lack of talent at CB2 (and once Tre was injured, at CB1) limited their defense schematically and left them vulnerable against good passing offenses. There were other factors, of course, but look at the defensive performance the first time we played Kansas City in 2021 vs the playoff game. Having Dane Jackson and Levi Wallace as the two starting corners absolutely cost the Bills.

I don't believe that subtracting Levi Wallace and then adding in any combination of Nick McCloud, Olaijah Griffin, Cam Lewis, or Siran Neal is going to IMPROVE the secondary from what we saw in that playoff loss in KC, and make no mistake, the secondary needs to be better than it was in that game. Tre returning will help, but we don't know how many games he'll miss or how good he'll be immediately upon return. And even then, upgrading the CB2 spot -- I'm not ready to just hand it to Dane Jackson -- should be a priority. And on top of THAT, improved depth at outside corner is a necessity, as we saw after Thanksgiving last year. 

As for "eschewing BPA", I don't think I mentioned that anywhere in my post. I'd like to see two corners taken in this draft, but I didn't say that they should force it, or that one of them had to be a 1st rounder. I have said, and will repeat, that I'd actually prefer they use their 1st round pick on an offensive player. But between rounds 2-7, and with 8 picks overall, there's no reason they can't draft a couple corners. The pile of undrafteds (McCloud, Griffin, Lewis) is not enough to dissuade me from this notion. The AFC is loaded with good quarterbacks and good passing offenses. It's high time the Bills move past this "we can get by with undrafted guys from Alcorn State!" phase and add some outside corner talent opposite White.
 

 

 

So we are in agreement that expecting 1st and 2nd round rookies to be difference makers in the defense.........thereby addressing the perceived immediate need for pass rush........did not fix the problem.

 

Personally,  I think the lack of finish in the pass rush was the biggest problem for the Bills defense in their loss to KC............not the cornerback play.

 

All Pro quality Tre White on his best day can't cover Tyreek Hill for 4 seconds........as evidenced by the scorching Hill gave him in the AFCCG in January 2021.    Having a stud CB out there made zero difference against Mahomes without effective pass rush.  

 

Now with Von Miller and Settle/Phillips and the developing young DE's that has been HEAVILY addressed the past 2 offseasons.

 

The Bills defensive secondary is what it is though.......heavy zone based......and it's probably not an accident that players who know their limitations and their role in the defense have thrived in it.

 

Maybe Tre White doesn't come back to the All Pro form he was playing at last season.........but could he come back and play his role as well as Levi Wallace until he gets there?   I think so.   And that was good enough to be a #1 ranked defense.........the first game the Bills lost after the White injury game was the last one.

 

I'm not saying don't draft or sign any CB's but there are positions on the team where elite early round traits actually do make a big difference............and CB hasn't been one of those in the McDefense..........and once you get past those early rounds then it goes back to what Beane said..........can draft picks beat out the experienced young players they have on the roster? 

 

 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

And that was good enough to be a #1 ranked defense.........the first game the Bills lost after the White injury game was the last one.

 

They lost the Bucs game too. Both losses were against other championship caliber teams, the kind we need to beat to win a Super Bowl, and both were close enough that it's reasonable to think White being in the game would have tilted the scales in our favor. A CB that can be left on an island is a huge need in McDermott's ideal defense. In the event that White doesn't come back his usual self this season having a CB that can at least cover #2 WRs on an island (Wallace couldn't even do that) is imperative. An improved pass rush should certainly help the secondary. But CB is still the one glaring hole on the team.

[stevestojan]

Having the luxury to not NEED any position is such a bizarre new feeling. 
 

That said, coming from someone who doesn’t follow college football much so don’t know what value will be there at 25, but in my opinion it’s CB then RB. 

 

We shore up those two positions and we might win every game 200-0. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

They lost the Bucs game too. Both losses were against other championship caliber teams, the kind we need to beat to win a Super Bowl, and both were close enough that it's reasonable to think White being in the game would have tilted the scales in our favor. A CB that can be left on an island is a huge need in McDermott's ideal defense. In the event that White doesn't come back his usual self this season having a CB that can at least cover #2 WRs on an island (Wallace couldn't even do that) is imperative. An improved pass rush should certainly help the secondary. But CB is still the one glaring hole on the team.

 

 

As I said before you tried to straw-man me..........the first game they lost AFTER the injury was KC.

 

When White got hurt in Tampa they were already being blow torched by the Bucs offense.........mainly because they were playing uninspired football as they had been doing consistently for 2 months.

 

They actually began playing better WITHOUT him.........which isn't to say that he's not a tremendous player but rather it underscores that the Bills secondary isn't about dynamic matchup athletes..........it's about executing the assignments and minimizing big plays.     

 

Reality is that they tied both of those games and lost in OT...........it isn't OBVIOUS that secondary play cost them those games..........not at all really.

[GreggTX]

No. It makes no sense to leave a starting job at such an important spot in the hands of a 'bubble player' when you just signed an elite pass rusher. The front and back work together. McD and Frazier working with the best talent on D that we've seen in years? Oh he__ ya!

[Big Turk]

No, they are going to take BPA like always.

 

Being ready and being back to normal are two different things.

 

He could very well be ready but take a year to be back to his old self again.

[Greg S]

The Von Miller signing is proof that the 2022 season is Super Bowl or bust for the Bills. You don't make a move like that unless you think you can win the whole thing. No way Beane goes into this season with Dane Jackson as the #1 CB. Nothing against Jackson but they have to upgrade. They will probably sign a vet and go CB in RD 1 would be my guess.