Vegas over/under wins; Bills 11.5 - How do we get to 12?

[TheBrownBear]

Reminder - every single team in the NFL has a road game at Buffalo penciled in as a projected loss.  So, start from there, and then give us three road wins at Pats/Find/Jets and all we need to do is win at Chicago and Detroit.  And I like us to take 2 of the 4 against Ravens/Rams/Chiefs/Bengals.

 

[Locomark]

Yes. I think we are right at 12. 13 if injuries are key positions are at a minimum and Josh plays every game. 

[longtimebillsfan]

On 4/2/2022 at 10:17 AM, Inigo Montoya said:

https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/article/executive-decision/early-action-nfl-win-totals-analyzed

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/schedule/future-opponents

 

Vegas has the early over under number of wins for the Bills this season at  11 1/2.  So far the betting action is moving to the "over" side of that equation.

 

Home opponents;

AFCE

Packers

Vikings

Steelers

Browns

Titans

 

Away opponents;

AFCE

Ravens

Bengals

Bears

Lions

Chiefs

Rams

 

If we go 5-1 in the division we should win these five games and get us to 10 wins;

Steelers

Browns (Brissett or Watkins is the question)

Bears

Vikings

Lions

 

That means we would need to win two of the following games to hit the over at 12 wins;

Packers

Titans

Bengals

Chiefs

Rams

Ravens

 

If we can sweep the AFCE that gives us one more game we can lose and still hit the over of 12 wins.  I would bet the over.  

 

 

 

Given the uneven play of the Bills in 2021 (see Steelers,Jaguars, Colts, and Patriots losses) I would be inclined to take the under.

 

This is a very difficult schedule.  The Bills will need to be at the top of their game every week to avoid disappointing losses.  When you factor in key injuries, 12 wins seems overly optimistic. 

[Billznut]

15 hours ago, Chaos said:

How many times in a row have will we have played the chiefs in arrowhead?

Including playoffs, this year’s game will be the 4th straight in Arrowhead. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

55 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said:

Given the uneven play of the Bills in 2021 (see Steelers,Jaguars, Colts, and Patriots losses) I would be inclined to take the under.

 

This is a very difficult schedule.  The Bills will need to be at the top of their game every week to avoid disappointing losses.  When you factor in key injuries, 12 wins seems overly optimistic. 

the Pats loss was a fluke of the weather 

 

the Jags should never have happened 

 

McD went for a win, Daboll called a QB sneak and Josh slipped Game Over

 

who knows what OT would have been 

 

Similarly with the Titans game. 
 He went for the W when a chip shot FG toes the game. 

[nucci]

since you can't win half a game....

[longtimebillsfan]

33 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

the Pats loss was a fluke of the weather 

 

the Jags should never have happened 

 

McD went for a win, Daboll called a QB sneak and Josh slipped Game Over

 

who knows what OT would have been 

 

Similarly with the Titans game. 
 He went for the W when a chip shot FG toes the game. 

Agree with all your points.

 

I just think with all the top level qbs we will be facing, 12 wins is a lot yo expect.

 

The Jacksonville game should never have been even close. 

 

The Colts blow out loss was an embarrassment. 

[Greg S]

12 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

Reminder - every single team in the NFL has a road game at Buffalo penciled in as a projected loss.  So, start from there, and then give us three road wins at Pats/Find/Jets and all we need to do is win at Chicago and Detroit.  And I like us to take 2 of the 4 against Ravens/Rams/Chiefs/Bengals.

 

 

I doubt the Bills go 8-0 at home. That's a really tough thing to do. I do think they will win 12-13 games next season but they will lose a game in OP.

[Matt_In_NH]

Seems low-ish for the SB favorites

[TheBrownBear]

4 hours ago, Greg S said:

 

I doubt the Bills go 8-0 at home. That's a really tough thing to do. I do think they will win 12-13 games next season but they will lose a game in OP.

I actually agree, Greg.  Just using those home wins as a template and working from there.  Point being, I think we should win 13-14 games, but it never really shakes out the exact way you expect it to.  

Edited April 4, 2022 by TheBrownBear

[BearNorth]

Getting to 13 would probably require winning all 8 at Home.  GB scares me a lot less since Adams is gone. 

 

It will be interesting when they schedule the Titans, I could see that being a Thursday night, and probably after a tough road game.

 

Bengals, Chiefs, and Rams will be tough on the road. 

 

Not sure how well we match up with the Ravens, and based on last two seasons, I expect there could be one stinker loss along the lines of recent Jax or Indy games.

 

With the parity in the league of late, anything over 12 wins probably requires some good luck on the Bills part, and/or misfortune on one of the other teams.

 

Edited April 4, 2022 by BearNorth