Vegas over/under wins; Bills 11.5 - How do we get to 12?

[Robert Paulson]

Easy over

[Fan in Chicago]

3 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

 

If we can sweep the AFCE that gives us one more game we can lose and still hit the over of 12 wins.  I would bet the over.  

 

 

 

I am having a tough time picking 5 losses

[Robert Paulson]

53 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

I think the Bills beat the Packers and Titans…Bengals, Rams, and Chiefs are basically pickem depending on when we play them and injuries 

Cincinnati doesn't  scare me yet. Burrows looks like the type to go into this season #### and get exposed a bit since they are now favorites

 

[Process]

6 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

Cincinnati doesn't  scare me yet. Burrows looks like the type to go into this season #### and get exposed a bit since they are now favorites

 

The Bengals are 7th in betting odds to win the AFC. 

 

Unless you're a casual football fan or host on NFL Newtork, you know that a QB who throws 5 TDs in 4 playoff games isn't a favorite to do ****.

[JGMcD2]

3 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

0-5 in the regular season last year in one score games and managed 11 wins still. So going 1-4 or better is how they get to 12 wins. Pretty high bar…

Data shows that teams who over or under perform in 1 score games end up trending back towards the middle. 
 

We should be roughly .500 in our 1 score games this year. 

[Magox]

When I look at the schedule it doesn’t scare me one bit.  I think the Bills are the best team in the NFL and barring any catastrophic injuries, the Bills go 14-3, win the Division and a conference, get home field advantage, go to SuperBowl and win it all this year. 
 

This is the year!

[78thealltimegreat]

2 hours ago, Robert Paulson said:

Cincinnati doesn't  scare me yet. Burrows looks like the type to go into this season #### and get exposed a bit since they are now favorites

 

I can see your point and I’d take the Bills at home but having to goto Cincy makes it a little tougher  

[The Red King]

This is a team that could go undefeated.  Having saying that, there is always the occasional fluke.  Maybe 5-1 in the AFC East, because there's normally "that game".  Last yeah was the wind game.  Even in NE's run of dominance there was that one game most years (usually vs. Miami).  Throw in a potential WTF game (JAX last year).  Then 1-2 possible losses against the big boys.  That still gets you to 14-3 or 13-4.

 

I'd bet over.

[Augie]

5 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

This may not be a popular opinion but I'm hoping we don't have too many primetime games this season.  It would be nice for the Bills to get a 1 pm EST rhythm going.  Primetime games usually result in a short week and I'd rather the other marquise teams get the lion's share of those games.

 

I'm not very hopeful though, Josh Allen is just too damn entertaining for his own good.  I think this is the year the unrecruited / JUCO QB and pistachio farmer in Buffalo becomes one of the faces of the NFL.

 

It’s not unpopular with me! I have an internal body clock that expects a Bills game at 1:00pm every Sunday. Anything else messes me up a bit.

 

As for how we win more, just avoid the stinkers like the Jags game and fix the OL so Josh doesn’t have to be our main running threat. I’m happy to have Kromer coming in.

 

As for how we get Vegas to change the line, just pour your money into the other side! They are an equal opportunity enterprise! The only favorite they play is CA$H! 

[machine gun kelly]

7 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/article/executive-decision/early-action-nfl-win-totals-analyzed

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/schedule/future-opponents

 

Vegas has the early over under number of wins for the Bills this season at  11 1/2.  So far the betting action is moving to the "over" side of that equation.

 

Home opponents;

AFCE

Packers

Vikings

Steelers

Browns

Titans

 

Away opponents;

AFCE

Ravens

Bengals

Bears

Lions

Chiefs

Rams

 

If we go 5-1 in the division we should win these five games and get us to 10 wins;

Steelers

Browns (Brissett or Watkins is the question)

Bears

Vikings

Lions

 

That means we would need to win two of the following games to hit the over at 12 wins;

Packers

Titans

Bengals

Chiefs

Rams

 

If we can sweep the AFCE that gives us one more game we can lose and still hit the over of 12 wins.  I would bet the over.  

 

 

 

Inigo, I luv ya my six fingered friend.  I’ll take that bet we hit a minimum of 12.  We improved and some others slid or stayed even.  The draft will be telling, and so will injuries of course, but we’re a better team than we were in the 21 season.  Betting on 12 is safe for me, very conservative is 11, and aggressive is 13.  No on wins them all, but we expect each week to win.

 

As a couple people wrote, Hill is no longer in KC, and that hurts them more then helps Miami given the QB’s.  No Davonte Adams for GB will at least modestly affect Rodgers.

 

We can split the tough teams you identified, and away is not a big deal for this team.  Heck Allen see,s to play better away for two years.

 

Thanks for the links.   Good stuff.

[strive_for_five_guy]

7 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/article/executive-decision/early-action-nfl-win-totals-analyzed

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/schedule/future-opponents

 

Vegas has the early over under number of wins for the Bills this season at  11 1/2.  So far the betting action is moving to the "over" side of that equation.

 

Home opponents;

AFCE

Packers

Vikings

Steelers

Browns

Titans

 

Away opponents;

AFCE

Ravens

Bengals

Bears

Lions

Chiefs

Rams

 

If we go 5-1 in the division we should win these five games and get us to 10 wins;

Steelers

Browns (Brissett or Watkins is the question)

Bears

Vikings

Lions

 

That means we would need to win two of the following games to hit the over at 12 wins;

Packers

Titans

Bengals

Chiefs

Rams

 

If we can sweep the AFCE that gives us one more game we can lose and still hit the over of 12 wins.  I would bet the over.  

 

 

 

Don’t forget Ravens in your second set of lists.

[Inigo Montoya]

25 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Don’t forget Ravens in your second set of lists.

 

Thanks, I'll go back and change it.  Appreciate the heads up.

 

[Saxum]

45 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Inigo, I luv ya my six fingered friend. 

Don Shiula is his six fingered friend. 

[DapperCam]

Our team is very similar to last year, so I could see losses:

 

- Steelers (lost to them last year, TJ Watt and Cam Heyward are still a thing)

- Titans (lost to them the past 2 years)
- KC (1-3 the past 2 years)

- Pats (2-1 vs them last year)

- Green Bay (Rodgers reigning MVP)

- Rams (reigning SB champs)

- Bengals (reigning AFC champs)

 

That would bring us to 10-7 at the most pessimistic.

 

I only expect potential losses from GB, KC, and the Rams. Or at least for those games to be toss-ups. All other games I expect to win.

 

So 14-3 at the most optimistic.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

19 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Home opponents;

 

Away opponents;

 

Home opponents;

AFCE = 3

Packers

Vikings

Steelers

Browns

Titans

 

Away opponents;

AFCE = 3

Ravens

Bengals

Bears

Lions

Chiefs

 

hmm 🤔 🤨 Easy Peasy

Edited April 3, 2022 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 Peasy 

19 hours ago, Warcodered said:

A little annoying that our Home and Away opponents seem so clearly unbalanced.

how so?  
The legend of AARon?

Vikings and Cousins 

 

Titans maybe BUT the game is home and not in Tenny like the last couple of games 

 

Shirley not the NYETS, or the fading Belicheat.   It took gale force winds and 3 passes and a porous run defense 

 

Will Mia will toggle Tua again? 
the recipe for disaster 

 

the Browns are as much a dumpster 🔥 as the JETS 

Edited April 3, 2022 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[Warcodered]

3 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 Peasy 

how so?  
The legend of AARon?

Vikings and Cousins 

 

Titans maybe BUT the game is home and not in Tenny like the last couple of games 

 

Shirley not the NYETS, or the fading Belicheat.   It took gale force winds and 3 passes and a porous run defense 

 

Will Mia will toggle Tua again? 
the recipe for disaster 

 

the Browns are as much a dumpster 🔥 as the JETS 

Opposite direction we play the Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs and Rams as away teams and maybe the Browns and Titans are the tougher home teams. I'm not worried really, it just seems unbalanced as far the strength of the teams on home and away.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

27 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Opposite direction we play the Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs and Rams as away teams and maybe the Browns and Titans are the tougher home teams. I'm not worried really, it just seems unbalanced as far the strength of the teams on home and away.

Oh 💩  the Rams were not even listed 😆 

 

OP musta been half asleep 💤 

 

the Cravens don’t worry me. 

RE the Titans — McD went for the win over the tie and Lost 😡 

They won’t beat the Bills 3 seasons in a row. 

 

 

Psssst. I’m in homer mode 😝 

[Simon Says]

I hope this team,assuming they draft well and  don't have horrible injuries...can win 12,13.

[Chaos]

On 4/2/2022 at 1:21 PM, Warcodered said:

A little annoying that our Home and Away opponents seem so clearly unbalanced.

How many times in a row have will we have played the chiefs in arrowhead?