Western New York Land Prices

[Milanos Milano]

So I’m in the market for some land, preferably in southern Erie county. What is the general going rate for an acre of land? Obviously prices will be different from region to region, but wooded or meadow lands are generally cheaper than plowed lands. Most places listed on Zillow and such are outrageously overvalued in my opinion. Most wooded or shrub land is about $2,000 an acre in PA, and I’ve seen a lot of public previous sales go in the $2,000-3,000 an acre range in southern Erie county. A lot of online sellers are looking for 4-5k which is ridiculous. Thoughts? 

[Draconator]

From a real estate agent

 

First - Stay far away from Zillow. They use what they think the lot would sell for if there's a house on it. If there is a house on it, they take the average neighborhood price and give it that price. Nevermind any updates and amenities. Zillow is on average 30% accurate. 

 

You're right when you say that wooded and meadow lands are cheaper. Reason is you generally can't build on those lands because the water table and/or flood plane would continually flood the house out. Community prices are also factors. Lots in East Aurora will be a bit more expensive than lots in Boston, Colden. etc. 

 

A little self promoting shameless plug, but if you want to look up accurate prices and descriptions that pull from the MLS, my real estate brokerage has an app for each agent. Mine is  https://ken-hoffman.seeingyouhome.com/KHoffman-app. Download and install it if you wish, and reach out if you have any other questions. 

Edited March 30, 2022 by Draconator

[flaz]

Link no workie 

[Draconator]

16 minutes ago, flaz said:

Link no workie 

Sorry about that. Try it now. 

[flaz]

2 hours ago, Draconator said:

Sorry about that. Try it now. 

I'm not comfortable letting them see if I have hemorrhoids. Is this legit, or does it ask for  my ss# on page 8? I grew uncontrollable on page 7

[Draconator]

34 minutes ago, flaz said:

I'm not comfortable letting them see if I have hemorrhoids. Is this legit, or does it ask for  my ss# on page 8? I grew uncontrollable on page 7

Hemorrhoids can be used for lower points with some brokerages. 

 

No SSN's will be required, but pictures of your dog chasing a rabbit through your outhouse would be more than acceptable.

[Milanos Milano]

3 hours ago, Draconator said:

From a real estate agent

 

First - Stay far away from Zillow. They use what they think the lot would sell for if there's a house on it. If there is a house on it, they take the average neighborhood price and give it that price. Nevermind any updates and amenities. Zillow is on average 30% accurate. 

 

You're right when you say that wooded and meadow lands are cheaper. Reason is you generally can't build on those lands because the water table and/or flood plane would continually flood the house out. Community prices are also factors. Lots in East Aurora will be a bit more expensive than lots in Boston, Colden. etc. 

 

A little self promoting shameless plug, but if you want to look up accurate prices and descriptions that pull from the MLS, my real estate brokerage has an app for each agent. Mine is  https://ken-hoffman.seeingyouhome.com/KHoffman-app. Download and install it if you wish, and reach out if you have any other questions. 

I’ve been mostly looking at Ag lands/just outside town limits. South towns like Colden, Boston, Springville, Collins, etc. Some of these brush properties have access to municipal services. However most sellers are asking for outrageous prices. Maybe I have been out of WNY long enough now that I can’t remember, but 5k an acre seems unreasonable, let alone 10k for some areas. Most plowed lands generally used to go for 3k or 3.5k in these regions. 

[Draconator]

Just now, IronMaidenBills said:

I’ve been mostly looking at Ag lands/just outside town limits. South towns like Colden, Boston, Springville, Collins, etc. Some of these brush properties have access to municipal services. However most sellers are asking for outrageous prices. Maybe I have been out of WNY long enough now that I can’t remember, but 5k an acre seems unreasonable, let alone 10k for some areas. Most plowed lands generally used to go for 3k or 3.5k in these regions. 

 

Welcome to real estate in 2022. 

 

My wife who is also an agent is representing a young couple buying their first home. She put in an offer of $60K over asking on a home. There were 67 offers on the home, and her offer was in the middle of the pack. That's how it's been and will be that way for the foreseeable future. 

[Milanos Milano]

9 minutes ago, Draconator said:

 

Welcome to real estate in 2022. 

 

My wife who is also an agent is representing a young couple buying their first home. She put in an offer of $60K over asking on a home. There were 67 offers on the home, and her offer was in the middle of the pack. That's how it's been and will be that way for the foreseeable future. 

But I go and look at public sales records, and a lot of adjacent properties were sold for 3k or 3.5k an acre,  and they are similar in nature. I feel like people are over asking for acreage that is simply brush field. We are talking about properties that have been on the market for nearly a year. These people think they will get 5k per acre but they won’t. Now if it’s in a big town like Lackawanna or whatever, then acreage amounts are high which is to be somewhat expected, but we are talking about places like Collins and Springville, which is just ridiculous. 

Edited March 31, 2022 by IronMaidenBills

[Draconator]

7 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

But I go and look at public sales records, and a lot of adjacent properties were sold for 3k or 3.5k an acre,  and they are similar in nature. I feel like people are over asking for acreage that is simply brush field. We are talking about properties that have been on the market for nearly a year. These people think they will get 5k per acre but they won’t. Now if it’s in a big town like Lackawanna or whatever, then acreage amounts are high which is to be somewhat expected, but we are talking about places like Collins and Springville, which is just ridiculous. 

To be honest, the average buyer won't put in the work you are doing. What you are doing is a good negotiating point for the realtor to use!

[Augie]

3 hours ago, Draconator said:

From a real estate agent

 

First - Stay far away from Zillow. They use what they think the lot would sell for if there's a house on it. If there is a house on it, they take the average neighborhood price and give it that price. Nevermind any updates and amenities. Zillow is on average 30% accurate. 

 

You're right when you say that wooded and meadow lands are cheaper. Reason is you generally can't build on those lands because the water table and/or flood plane would continually flood the house out. Community prices are also factors. Lots in East Aurora will be a bit more expensive than lots in Boston, Colden. etc. 

 

A little self promoting shameless plug, but if you want to look up accurate prices and descriptions that pull from the MLS, my real estate brokerage has an app for each agent. Mine is  https://ken-hoffman.seeingyouhome.com/KHoffman-app. Download and install it if you wish, and reach out if you have any other questions. 

 

After my banking years I bought into a regional appraisal company on the west coast of Florida, then moved to ATL and worked for an appraisal management company. I then worked leasing high end properties for Sotheby's in Atlanta. (Who rents a house for $10-25k/month????) 

 

Having said all that…..I want to confirm that Zillow is hot garbage! It’s easy, and it’s handy, but they have never been inside one of those houses. They are also FAR from current. I had listings that had been off the market for months, and I’d still get calls based on Zillow info. I also have seen multiple parcel sales shown in Zillow as though a single lot sold for that price. It is not to be trusted. 

 

It’s OK to look at Zillow (it’s easy, after all), but it’s a mistake to trust anything you see there. 

 

There is also this to consider.

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-viral-tiktok-accuses-zillow-and-its-competitors-of-manipulating-the-housing-market-heres-whats-really-going-on-11632511943

 

Rant over, for now. 

[BADOLBILZ]

39 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

But I go and look at public sales records, and a lot of adjacent properties were sold for 3k or 3.5k an acre,  and they are similar in nature. 

 

 

Hell, my grandfather paid less than $10/acre when he moved to WNY from Long Island!

 

Sales that happened pre-or even early pandemic might as well have been 30 years ago.

 

 

[Milanos Milano]

16 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Hell, my grandfather paid less than $10/acre when he moved to WNY from Long Island!

 

Sales that happened pre-or even early pandemic might as well have been 30 years ago.

 

 

The problem is, unless you develop the land, it’s a hot garbage investment at those kind of prices. Nobody is paying 5-7k an acre for Ag land or brush land for recreation. Say you lease it out to some farmer, you may turn a profit, but you are talking about a ROI of 10 years at those prices. Assuming you actually do something with it. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, IronMaidenBills said:

The problem is, unless you develop the land, it’s a hot garbage investment at those kind of prices. Nobody is paying 5-7k an acre for Ag land or brush land for recreation. Say you lease it out to some farmer, you may turn a profit, but you are talking about a ROI of 10 years at those prices. Assuming you actually do something with it. 

 

Land is a good, safe long term investment...........and yeah, some day......maybe even in your 10 year time frame........people will be paying $5K-$10K acre for recreation land.    Because land corporations are snapping it up thousands of acres at a time and once they've consumed enough of it the values will skyrocket.   

 

It sounds like you are expecting to buy land and just start turning a profit on it annually without doing anything.    That would be like the Pegula's expecting to buy the Bills and make back that $1.4B in cash in a few years while still owning the asset.   

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

 

[SoTier]

10 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

I’ve been mostly looking at Ag lands/just outside town limits. South towns like Colden, Boston, Springville, Collins, etc. Some of these brush properties have access to municipal services. However most sellers are asking for outrageous prices. Maybe I have been out of WNY long enough now that I can’t remember, but 5k an acre seems unreasonable, let alone 10k for some areas. Most plowed lands generally used to go for 3k or 3.5k in these regions. 

 

10 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

But I go and look at public sales records, and a lot of adjacent properties were sold for 3k or 3.5k an acre,  and they are similar in nature. I feel like people are over asking for acreage that is simply brush field. We are talking about properties that have been on the market for nearly a year. These people think they will get 5k per acre but they won’t. Now if it’s in a big town like Lackawanna or whatever, then acreage amounts are high which is to be somewhat expected, but we are talking about places like Collins and Springville, which is just ridiculous. 

 

Have you tried looking on realtor.com?   Those are listings of properties that are actually for sale as opposed to Zillow.  I think that prices for bare land within easy commute to the Buffalo suburbs, which would be the towns you mentioned, have soared in recent years.    I know that asking prices for bare land in northern Cattaraugus County and in Chautauqua County generally have increased significantly in the last couple of years.

 

The price per acre also depends upon the size of the acreage and the quality of the land.   Generally, a 2 acre parcel will cost more per acre than a 10 acre parcel of the same quality land and considerably more than a 100 acre parcel.  You can't really judge the quality of the parcel without walking it yourself, though.  A large wooded acreage might have valuable hardwoods that are ready to harvest and easy for loggers to access -- or it might have been logged recently and won't produce another harvest for a decade or more.   It might be that while it contains valuable hardwoods, they are virtually inaccessible because of a ravine or some other topographic feature.   A property might have significant wetlands (several acres) that cannot be disturbed, which might not be a big deal on a 200 acre plot but might be a deal breaker on a 5 acre parcel that you want for building your dream house.   A hayfield located on a gently sloping south facing hillside with a view is probably more valuable for somebody looking to build a house than the same sized hayfield sliced with a meandering creek running through it that suggests its vulnerable to flooding.

 

 

 

[Cynical]

On 3/30/2022 at 9:34 PM, Augie said:

 

After my banking years I bought into a regional appraisal company on the west coast of Florida, then moved to ATL and worked for an appraisal management company. I then worked leasing high end properties for Sotheby's in Atlanta. (Who rents a house for $10-25k/month????) 

 

Having said all that…..I want to confirm that Zillow is hot garbage! It’s easy, and it’s handy, but they have never been inside one of those houses. They are also FAR from current. I had listings that had been off the market for months, and I’d still get calls based on Zillow info. I also have seen multiple parcel sales shown in Zillow as though a single lot sold for that price. It is not to be trusted. 

 

It’s OK to look at Zillow (it’s easy, after all), but it’s a mistake to trust anything you see there. 

 

There is also this to consider.

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-viral-tiktok-accuses-zillow-and-its-competitors-of-manipulating-the-housing-market-heres-whats-really-going-on-11632511943

 

Rant over, for now. 

 

Zillow's wasn't trying to manipulate the market, Zillow's valuations models were f***ing terrible.

 

Zillow started Offers with the intent of proving their valuation algorithms were highly accurate.

They got into the house flipping business.

It ended in a disaster.

Zillow lost hundreds of millions of dollars (400+ IIRC).

 

They shut it down, and cut 25% of their employees.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/zillow-layoffs-closing-zillow-offers-selling-homes/

 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

We just bought a WNY home for 20% over ask. It had multiple offers, escalation clauses, waived inspections and no contingencies. There were all cash offers and people willing to rent back for free to adhere to the delayed closing request of the seller. 
 

We also sold our current WNY home for 23% over asking price with similar circumstances. 
 

It’s a double-edged sword. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Are these related?  
Land value and Property Value?

 

The housing bubble may burst soon. 
 

if you buy now be wary.  You may be under water if it does 

 

I built my house after the last bubble burst.

 

Paid $325 and my home value is over $425 so I’m set. 

 

12 years later the half dozen homes may just be breaking even. 

Edited April 4, 2022 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce