What would you do with the new OT rule? Defer or take the ball?

[Tanoros]

2 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

I look at it exactly the opposite way.

 

Team 1 has little control because they have no way of knowing what team 2 will do.  They are trying to score, but then have to decide on going for 2.  No matter what they do - they can not win on that first drive - only dictate what team #2 needs to do to win.

 

Team 2 knows exactly what they have to do to win when they get the ball.  Did team 1 punt or kick a FG?  Did they score and kick and XP or get stopped at the 45 yard line?  Did they get a TD and make a 2 pt or miss the 2 point conversion?  Team 2 knows exactly what they have to do to win and prevent team 1 from getting the ball back.

 

Literally the only way team 1 is guaranteed to get the 3rd possession is a TD and 2 pt on the first drive - even then they don’t win - they only guaranteed a shot with the 3 possession.  The 2nd team gets the ball and in most instances has a shot to win the game on their possession.

 

 

While I agree with much of what your saying about the reasons for the getting the ball second (especially because we have Allen), I want to make one important correction. 
 

You said the only way for a 3rd possession is if team 1 scores a td and 2pt on the first drive. This is wrong. The 3rd possession can happen multiple ways. 
-both team fail to score and punt. 
-both teams have turnovers/turnover on downs.
-both teams score field goals

-both teams score td and xp

-both teams score td and 2pt

 

Many of us Bills fans are viewing this OT rule through the lens of the Bills/Chiefs playoff game, and acting as if it’s a given both teams score td’s, but that’s not the case. 

6 minutes ago, The Red King said:

One advantage to getting it first.  If you drive deep but don't score, you punt and pin them very deep, maybe even close to their goal line.  Get a three and out and you get good field position and only need a FG now for the win.

Many are not considering this part in having the ball first. This is the reason I keep saying the right answer is highly dependent on the game/game flow. 

[Max Fischer]

I'd defer because I want to know what I need to do. I'd hate to have the ball first and have to decide to kick an easy FG or attempt a difficult fourth down. If you have the ball second that decision is made for you. 

[Tanoros]

7 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

I was extremely excited last season, but going into this season is the most optimistic I’ve EVER been. We are stacked in nearly every facet of the game. I feel like our defense is now getting to the point where they are talented enough to win games on their own, let alone thinking we have a crew of honey badgers on offense. I honestly could see an undefeated season this year if we have a really good draft. 

I love your optimism, and this is also the best I’ve felt about an upcoming season in along time. However, adversity is a common theme in the NFL, and the 2022 Bills will face it as well. Most likely that adversity leads to losing a game or two. However, Allen is the key. Depending on his play, your guess could be spot on. If Allen plays anything close to playoff Allen most/all of next season. Man, we will be very hard to beat, much less force a punt 😉

[Patrick Duffy]

10 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

I did not bold it - you did when you quoted me.

 

 

Yes, I bolded it because I was pointing out the way you worded it sounded like you meant as fact. No big deal either way.....

[Milanos Milano]

1 minute ago, Tanoros said:

I love your optimism, and this is also the best I’ve felt about an upcoming season in along time. However, adversity is a common theme in the NFL, and the 2022 Bills will face it as well. Most likely that adversity leads to losing a game or two. However, Allen is the key. Depending on his play, your guess could be spot on. If Allen plays anything close to playoff Allen most/all of next season. Man, we will be very hard to beat, much less force a punt 😉

Allen is reaching new levels of play. I honestly believe he hasn’t even reached his ceiling yet. Imagine what he would do with another high end speed WR. Allen is going to be the greatest player to ever play the game when all said and done, I’m fully convinced. Imagine what he would do with better line play and a receiving back. I think this is the year everyone in the league will be picking their jaws off the floor. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Great discussion. 

I understand the logic and points made by the folks choosing to defer. And they are all valid points.  I get the emotion of taking the ball and going out to win the game like in the past.

At first I said take the ball, but reading the whole thread I'm changing my mind to defer. 

[Tanoros]

32 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

And you get 4 downs the whole drive. Deferring offers a lot of benefits. Going first is only a benefit if you elect to go for 2 and go up 8 points. 

Why are so many saying going first only offers benefit if scoring 8 points? Last I checked scoring wasn’t automatic. There are several ways to bring about a 3rd possession, and not all OT’s come about because two offenses are unstoppable.

-turnovers, punting, trading fg’s. There are several ways in which the third possession can come about. While I agree with the sentiment of taking the ball second, I don’t think it’s such an obvious choice. 

[Rochesterfan]

4 minutes ago, Tanoros said:

While I agree with much of what your saying about the reasons for the getting the ball second (especially because we have Allen), I want to make one important correction. 
 

You said the only way for a 3rd possession is if team 1 scores a td and 2pt on the first drive. This is wrong. The 3rd possession can happen multiple ways. 
-both team fail to score and punt. 
-both teams have turnovers/turnover on downs.
-both teams score field goals

-both teams score td and xp

-both teams score td and 2pt

 

Many of us Bills fans are viewing this OT rule through the lens of the Bills/Chiefs playoff game, and acting as if it’s a given both teams score td’s, but that’s not the case. 

Many are not considering this part in having the ball first. This is the reason I keep saying the right answer is highly dependent on the game/game flow. 

 

No what is said is the only way for team #1 to guarantee  a 3rd possession is if team 1 scores a TD and a 2 pt conversion.  All of the others ways would give a 3rd possession correct and have been mentioned previously, but non are guaranteed.

 

The difference being if Team 1 performs any of the first 4 options - team 2 has a chance to finish the game and outright win or lose without ever getting to sudden death.  That does not mean they will, but they have that ability.

 

There is absolutely nothing Team #1 can do that wins the game on the 1st possession.  Team 2 will always get the ball and have a chance to win or tie the game.

 

 

[Tanoros]

2 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Allen is reaching new levels of play. I honestly believe he hasn’t even reached his ceiling yet. Imagine what he would do with another high end speed WR. Allen is going to be the greatest player to ever play the game when all said and done, I’m fully convinced. Imagine what he would do with better line play and a receiving back. I think this is the year everyone in the league will be picking their jaws off the floor. 

I agree with all you said about Allen. I also strongly believe he will be considered the best to ever play when it’s all said and done. I hope this upcoming season we get to see both Knox and Davis break out (among others, namely some defensive guys). 

[Milanos Milano]

7 minutes ago, Tanoros said:

I agree with all you said about Allen. I also strongly believe he will be considered the best to ever play when it’s all said and done. I hope this upcoming season we get to see both Knox and Davis break out (among others, namely some defensive guys). 

This team is going to be so great this year, it will be talked about with a lot of the other great teams in history. Our defense was already top in pressures, and we added Miller who by himself adds nearly half of our teams stats. Plus we bring back White on top of all that. Not even including the draft. This team is absolutely going to MAUL teams and it’s going to be a thing of beauty. I would not be surprised if this team sets the offensive ppg NFL record and the defensive fewest points allowed record at the same time. 

Edited March 29, 2022 by IronMaidenBills

[Tanoros]

4 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

No what is said is the only way for team #1 to guarantee  a 3rd possession is if team 1 scores a TD and a 2 pt conversion.  All of the others ways would give a 3rd possession correct and have been mentioned previously, but non are guaranteed.

 

The difference being if Team 1 performs any of the first 4 options - team 2 has a chance to finish the game and outright win or lose without ever getting to sudden death.  That does not mean they will, but they have that ability.

 

There is absolutely nothing Team #1 can do that wins the game on the 1st possession.  Team 2 will always get the ball and have a chance to win or tie the game.

 

 

True, I missed the most important word of your previous post. Your point about team 1 not being able to win with their first possession is true, and I do think the trend will be for teams to defer (at-least at the start). However, there is certainly merit to taking the ball first and having the option for a 3rd possession. 
 

For instance, with Allen I’d feel comfortable with him driving down and scoring a td on the first possession. Namely, because Allen can convert even 3rd and longs with relative ease (at least compared to just about everyone else besides Mahomes), and I’d feel really good about Allen getting us into fg distance on a 3rd drive. Also, I trust our defense to hold in a 2pt attempt, at least, enough to take the chance. 
 

Question for you. If we got the ball first, do you automatically go for 2 every time (playoff OT)? Situation dependent? I do trust Allen going for 2, but I’d still go for the xp, unless our defense couldn’t stop anything (like our last game). 

 

[Milanos Milano]

I’d almost trade a lot of our picks just to get Sauce Gardner. Nobody is stopping us with White, Gardner, Hyde, and Poyer. 

[Tanoros]

4 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

This team is going to be so great this year, it will be talked about with a lot of the other great teams in history. Our defense was already top in pressures, and we added Miller who by himself adds nearly half of our teams stats. Plus we bring back White on top of all that. Not even including the draft. This team is absolutely going to MAUL teams and it’s going to be a thing of beauty. I would not be surprised if this team sets the offensive ppg NFL record and the defensive fewest points allowed record at the same time. 

Your a Breece Hall in the first guy right? I’ve been warming up to that possibility myself. Either way, I just want our team to come out of the draft with atleast 1 playmaker and a couple solid starters/depth pieces. If the playmaker is a cb, wr, rb, whatever, I just want someone who will make an impact year 1 and help push us over the top. 

[Patrick Duffy]

I still believe it depends on certain situations and who the opponent is. In an offensive fire power game like Buf/KC was I can see why deferring is better. But games like Washington vs Eagles etc with mostly defensive game I would take ball. Also if those kinds of teams/games I feel they both kick XP 

[Milanos Milano]

1 minute ago, Tanoros said:

Your a Breece Hall in the first guy right? I’ve been warming up to that possibility myself. Either way, I just want our team to come out of the draft with atleast 1 playmaker and a couple solid starters/depth pieces. If the playmaker is a cb, wr, rb, whatever, I just want someone who will make an impact year 1 and help push us over the top. 

Yes I like Hall. But I just want play makers, don’t really care who. If we trade up and get Sauce Gardner, I’d be happy to. Just get us a difference maker. 

[Tanoros]

Just now, IronMaidenBills said:

Yes I like Hall. But I just want play makers, don’t really care who. If we trade up and get Sauce Gardner, I’d be happy to. Just get us a difference maker. 

I’m so curious to see what we do at cb. This will be very telling for us long term how the Bills value cb (or Tre is making a remarkable recovery). I kinda want to see us get 3 picks in the first two rounds, which most likely with 2 second round picks. So either a trade up, or a trade down (then still moving around a bit to get “our” guys). 
 

There’s a good chance we can get a good cb at 25 and then move up and get Hall. That would be a great scenario for us. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

The reason coach’s defer is this

Quote

Some believe coaches are waiting until the second half to get a better feel for how the opposing team is performing. Others think it could be a matter of “herd mentality.” It’s possible that weather is a factor in decision-making. Or, maybe it’s just the thing to do these days. Regardless, it seems like everyone is doing it.

https://www.sportscasting.com/why-do-nfl-teams-defer-after-winning-the-coin-toss/?amp
 

by the end of the 4th one would think you had a “feel“ of what they are doing!

 

Quote

ouston Texans’ special teams coach Brad Seely explained that it “comes down to the chance to pair a score at the end of the first half with one at the start of the second. It’s the only opportunity a team has for two straight possessions and can be a chance to instantly put the game out of reach

which is not relevant with OT

Edited March 29, 2022 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[GETTOTHE50]

You always ALWAYS receive. 
 

You always want to score first and get on the board first. 

[billykay]

4 hours ago, SWATeam said:

There's very little benefit in taking the ball.  If you defer you know exactly what you need to win.

Plus you get 4 downs.

[Utah John]

The only reason I can see not to defer is this:  Deferring means you're putting your tired defense back on the field.  The other team's offense gets the ball and takes five minutes to score on your tired D, while THEIR defense is sitting and resting.