What would you do with the new OT rule? Defer or take the ball?

[Billsrhody]

19 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Question:  How many coaches who defer in the 1st half, also defer in the 2nd half?  Answer: NONE!  You don't defer unless you have the option of getting the 1st possession later in the game.  

Logic says choose the option that has the possibility of more possessions.  If you both score and the game is tied the team that took the ball can win the game with the team that deferred not having another possession.  Give me the possibility of a 2-1 possession advantage in overtime every game.   

 

+1 to this

 

For all the folks referencing the "advantage" of going second and being able to go for it on 4th down and go for the 2 point conversions. How is that an advantage is the team that goes first can do those things as well (and probably should)? 

[Dablitzkrieg]

26 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

 

? Are you saying take the ball first and score? Or are you saying defer and let Allen score and go for 2? 

We want the ball and we're gonna score

[Milanos Milano]

10 minutes ago, Tanoros said:

Your point is in regard to a very specific situation. What I’m saying is, a 3rd possession in sudden death is an advantage. There is no way to argue that it isn’t. A 3rd possession can come about in a few different ways, the how isn’t important, the fact that’s it’s possible is the important part. 
 

I also think your wrong about the first team going for two when scoring a td. I certainly can see it happening, but it would be the exception and not the rule. Only elite offenses or teams with elite qb’s would be so brazen as to go for two on the first possession td. 
 

I’d feel pretty good about the Bills having to stop a td/2pt for the win in just about every situation. Even that ***** Kansas playoff game, I’d be ok with a one play 2pt stop for our defense. I feel like, this is the way the vast majority of NFL coaches would view it as well. But only time will tell. 

 

I have a feeling this OT rule is going to bring about a whole bunch of aggressiveness and interesting decisions. Hopefully it works it’s way down into the regular season, because I feel like the fact that the board can’t agree 100% let alone 80%  on what to do, some teams are going to play around with it and make it entertaining. 

5 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

We want the ball and we're gonna score

And go for XP or for 2pt? If we are going to take the ball first, there would be no point unless we go for 2 and put up 8 points. Otherwise there is no guarantee Allen gets that 3rd possession advantage. 

Edited March 29, 2022 by IronMaidenBills

[Patrick Duffy]

1 minute ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

We want the ball and we're gonna score

Lol, yeah don't want to pull a Matt Hasselbeck and end up looking silly

[BuffaloMatt]

depends on D. If they were on field like the last game defer and allow them to recoup a bit. 

[Tanoros]

6 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

I agree, but I think it applies to a huge % of teams - not just the Bills.  Most teams want to control their own destiny and most teams feel they control things when they have the ball.

 

Therefore to me if I want to control my destiny - I want the ball second with everything on the line and I know exactly what I need to do to win this game.  Even if I am a defensive minded guy - I want the opportunity to stop them and know a FG wins.  
 

I want the pressure and the knowledge every time.

See, I disagree here. When considering this question in the general aspect, it can’t be properly answered without one knowing how the game is going. Consider a defense struggle of a game, a field position, old school kind of game. In this type of game, having a 3rd possession and sudden death is an advantage. Especially if the first possession is used to pin the second team deep in their own territory. 
 

The point is, the correct decision will vary from team to team and more importantly, from game to game. I’m some ways, saying that, “we should always take the ball second or defer” is like saying, “we should always go for it on 4th and 1 or less”. Tough decisions/strategies in football are generally situation/game dependent, and I feel that the decision to either receive or defer in OT is the same. 

[Rochesterfan]

25 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

I don't think they would. Far from it actually, also not sure why you're stating these percentages as a fact. I mean we don't know since obviously it's a new rule. Some will probably go for 2 when a situation presents itself. I just think the percentage of kicking XP will be higher than going for 2.

 

I am not stating it as fact - it Is what I believe that playoff coaches will decide when the game is on the line and I think the numbers grow every year as teams do more and more analytical work showing how your win percentage alters based on 1 play.

 

If you are the second team in a playoff game and the first team went down scored a TD and kicked the XP and you just matched that and scored a TD - why on earth would any coach just kick to XP in that situation and let it go to sudden death with the other team getting the ball?

 

A 2 point conversion is just below 50% for every team, but tends to run slightly higher than 50% for playoff teams.  Therefore, going for 2 would give you better odds of winning outright over losing outright.  
 

I believe coaches can justify that decision, but will be rightly questioned if they just kick the XP and let the other team have the ball with a shot to win.

 

Regular season might be different, but playoffs - I can’t see a coach not going for the win, but I am sure there is one old school coach that would play for the tie.

 

 

 

 

[Milanos Milano]

Just now, BuffaloMatt said:

depends on D. If they were on field like the last game defer and allow them to recoup a bit. 

Upon further review, I think Deferring it 90% of the time is the best way to go. Then you get to work with 4 downs, you then get to know what you need to win. The only caveat would be if a team like KC was ballsy enough to go for 2 with the first possession and go up 8. 

[Kmart128]

Defer but if you end up tieing then you could be screwed. So i would defer and try and win game with 2 point conversion cause there is no gurantee you will get ball back

[sonyab1974]

Take the damn ball! Why would you want to defer?

[TBBills]

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

Score the TD and make them follow you

 

then stop them. 

Exactly put the pressure on them to score by scoring first. I am surprised  people still picking to defer like it's better.

Edited March 29, 2022 by TBBills

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Defer.

[Milanos Milano]

1 minute ago, sonyab1974 said:

Take the damn ball! Why would you want to defer?

Because of the 2 point possibilities. The 2 point completely messes things up. 

[Tanoros]

8 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

 

I have a feeling this OT rule is going to bring about a whole bunch of aggressiveness and interesting decisions. Hopefully it works it’s way down into the regular season, because I feel like the fact that the board can’t agree 100% let alone 80%  on what to do, some teams are going to play around with it and make it entertaining. 

And go for XP or for 2pt? If we are going to take the ball first, there would be no point unless we go for 2 and put up 8 points. Otherwise there is no guarantee Allen gets that 3rd possession advantage. 

It is too bad we won’t get to see this in action very often. But, I do like the aspect of having draws in the regular season. Honestly, part of me wishes the NFL would get rid of OT for the regular season. If a draw is a possibility, why have OT and risk injury? I feel like if there is going to be an OT, then there also needs to be a winner. 

[Dablitzkrieg]

10 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

 

I have a feeling this OT rule is going to bring about a whole bunch of aggressiveness and interesting decisions. Hopefully it works it’s way down into the regular season, because I feel like the fact that the board can’t agree 100% let alone 80%  on what to do, some teams are going to play around with it and make it entertaining. 

And go for XP or for 2pt? If we are going to take the ball first, there would be no point unless we go for 2 and put up 8 points. Otherwise there is no guarantee Allen gets that 3rd possession advantage. 

I really don't give a *****.  

[sonyab1974]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

The team who possesses first cannot win the game with its possession. 

 

The team that possesses second can. 

 

I'm so confused. Not even if your score is high?

1 minute ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Because of the 2 point possibilities. The 2 point completely messes things up. 

 

Even if your score is high and you are beating the other team?

[Rochesterfan]

1 minute ago, Tanoros said:

See, I disagree here. When considering this question in the general aspect, it can’t be properly answered without one knowing how the game is going. Consider a defense struggle of a game, a field position, old school kind of game. In this type of game, having a 3rd possession and sudden death is an advantage. Especially if the first possession is used to pin the second team deep in their own territory. 
 

The point is, the correct decision will vary from team to team and more importantly, from game to game. I’m some ways, saying that, “we should always take the ball second or defer” is like saying, “we should always go for it on 4th and 1 or less”. Tough decisions/strategies in football are generally situation/game dependent, and I feel that the decision to either receive or defer in OT is the same. 

 

Or it is an old school defensive struggle and you kick off and pin them deep and try to get field position and kick a FG to win on the second possession.

 

I agree there are a lot of things that can go into the decision and having the ball third is a big advantage, but only if it goes to 3 possessions.  If you are in the second position - you have opportunities  to control whether there is a 3rd possession.  
 

I think it opens up a lot of options and I can not wait to see what analytics come from this.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, sonyab1974 said:

 

I'm so confused. Not even if your score is high?

 

The team who possess first in OT can't win the game on that possession whatever they do. They can score a TD and 2 points and still the other team get the ball. The second team can win the game in all scenarios except for those where team 1 scores 8.

[Milanos Milano]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

The team who possesses first cannot win the game with its possession. 

 

The team that possesses second can. 

Not true if the team who scores first elects to go for 2 and succeeds. That guarantees them the 3rd possession advantage. 

[FilthyBeast]

There are two schools of though on this, if your QB/offense is hot you probably want them to get the ball first in overtime.

 

However now that each team is ensured at least one possession I would lean on deferring every time since you still have a chance to stop the other team first and then can just win with a FG instead of TD on your next possession.