What would you do with the new OT rule? Defer or take the ball?

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

If I take ball 1st?? I go for 1 with a kicker like Bass.

 

And now Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow or Deshaun Watson are getting the ball playing 4 down football knowing that they have a chance to win the game without you touching it again.

[Rochesterfan]

If it is my call - I defer the vast majority of the time.  The only exception would be weather games where it is nearly impossible to throw going one way versus the other - then I want to choose direction over ball.

 

I defer because it gives you the most opportunities to win in my eyes.

 

1) You know exactly what the other team did to set up your drive - do I have to score, do I only need a FG, do I need an XP or a 2 point conversion.  You control the destiny of the team and you are the only team that can win (or lose on your drive) - it should almost never go beyond 2 drives in this scenario.

 

2) You have the luxury of knowing if it is 4 down territory for your entire drive and can play call with that in mind or you might say - well we need a FG to tie, but I have a better chance of getting a first down than winning if I tie the game again.

 

3) The first team now has to decide how they want to proceed if they score a TD - do you go for two or go for 1.  I think it will force most teams that get the ball first to go for 2 because that is their only assured chance at maybe getting the ball back.

 

4) You know exactly what you need to do to win - so you can have assistant coaches looking for 2 pt plays even while you are driving so that you are absolutely ready with the best play when needed.

 

The interesting piece is how many coaches in the first spot - kick an extra point - it opens up winning and losing potential.

[Patrick Duffy]

Just now, loyal2dagame said:

I just can't fathom the second possession team going for a 2pt conversion in overtime in an AFC or NFC championship game instead of extending the game.  I just do not see a head coach doing that.

 

I mentioned something about that... In a huge game like that I don't know how many would go for 2. As I stated though, it would depend on the team and situation. If said team doesn't have confidence in their K that would be a factor in going for 2. Or if a bad weather/wind type game we saw this past season would be a case you go for 2.

 

Otherwise imo I think most coaches would kick the XP more than going for 2

[NewEra]

14 minutes ago, loyal2dagame said:

I just can't fathom the second possession team going for a 2pt conversion in overtime in an AFC or NFC championship game instead of extending the game.  I just do not see a head coach doing that.

 

And hoping their d can prevent a FG….after they alrsady scored a TD in OT?  No thanks. 

[Patrick Duffy]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And now Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow or Deshaun Watson are getting the ball playing 4 down football knowing that they have a chance to win the game without you touching it again.

As I said,it would depend on the team and game flow situations when making the choice. Against Mahomes or any game like we recently saw with KC/BUF where neither D can stop the other, I can agree you may want to consider defer. However if an opponent where your D has had some success against I take ball

[MJS]

37 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Defer….and it’s not even a question.  @GunnerBill explained why.  
 

those that disagree, why would you want the ball first? 

No you don’t.  2 point conversions exist.  Missed xps occur.  

Two point conversions are low percentage plays.

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

And hoping their d can prevent a FG….after they alrsady scored a TD in OT?  No thanks. 

If you miss it, the other team wins.

[17islongenough]

Take the ball so you get the ball back for the 1st possession of sudden death

[Patrick Duffy]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

And hoping their d can prevent a FG….after they alrsady scored a TD in OT?  No thanks. 

I'm confused with your post..if I misread I apologize. But why would you hope their D can prevent a FG if that's all you would need to win? 

[Rochesterfan]

3 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

I mentioned something about that... In a huge game like that I don't know how many would go for 2. As I stated though, it would depend on the team and situation. If said team doesn't have confidence in their K that would be a factor in going for 2. Or if a bad weather/wind type game we saw this past season would be a case you go for 2.

 

Otherwise imo I think most coaches would kick the XP more than going for 2

 

I think with the analytics that adjust win percentage based on individual plays - 70-80% of coaches or more will be going for 2 as the 2nd team - knowing that both teams just scored on their drives and the other team can win with just a FG.

 

We already see teams near the end of games go for two rather than 1 to win outright rather than tie and go to OT.

 

We also see teams like the Bills go for 4th down TDs rather than tie the game with a FG.

 

Analytics would drive coaches in the 2nd spot to go for the win and try to win with your offense in a 1 play scenario.

 

The real question is what does the 1st team do if they score?  How many have the guts to go for 2 to ensure they have life and how many just settle for the XP.

 

 

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

Two point conversions are low percentage plays.

If you miss it, the other team wins.

It’s a 45% success rate in the nfl. That number includes bad QBs.  It’s not a 45% success rate with great QBs.  You’d trust your D to stop Josh Allen on a 2 pt conversion with the season on the line?  Psssshhhhhhh.  Not me.  

[Milanos Milano]

I’m still taking the ball first. Why? Because sudden death rules still apply after a TD-TD. 

[Tanoros]

48 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

There's very little benefit in taking the ball.  If you defer you know exactly what you need to win.

By taking the ball, your setting the team up to have the ball first should OT move to sudden death. 
 

To be honest, there isn’t a one size fits all answer to this question, and both sides have merit. Having the ball second, and being able to use 4 downs is a nice advantage. However, getting the ball first in sudden death is also a nice advantage. 
 

The nice thing about going second is having the ability to go for two and avoid sudden death. I don’t think it would be common for the first team with the ball to go for two, so the second team has a shot to either win it or lose it on a 2pt play. I’d take that with Allen all day any day. 

[MJS]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

It’s a 45% success rate in the nfl. That number includes bad QBs.  It’s not a 45% success rate with great QBs.  You’d trust your D to stop Josh Allen on a 2 pt conversion with the season on the line?  Psssshhhhhhh.  Not me.  

If you miss it, the other team wins. If you kick the extra point (which is an extremely high percentage play) you at least give your team a shot.

 

That's why you take the ball first, so you have the 3rd possession and can win in sudden death.

[Tanoros]

9 minutes ago, NewEra said:

And hoping their d can prevent a FG….after they alrsady scored a TD in OT?  No thanks. 

Exactly. It depends on the team composition, but with Allen, going for two makes sense. 

[Milanos Milano]

But like some posters have said on here, the 2 pt conversion plays a key role. You have Josh Allen, you more than likely go for the win, rather than let the other team have the sudden death possession. So I’m now debating if I’d rather just defer it. Because I like to think our odds are higher than 49% with Allen going for 2. 

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

I'm confused with your post..if I misread I apologize. But why would you hope their D can prevent a FG if that's all you would need to win? 

If both teams score and kick XPs, the team that got the ball first only needs a FG to win.  The nfl has changed dramatically over the years to benefit offense.  Smart teams will plan on using all 4 downs for that possession (imo) and in most cases will inevitably be in position a FG attempt (the majority of the time).  I’d rather go for the win and not allow them that opportunity.  I think it’s easier to convert a 2 yard play than to keep a team out of FG range. Keep in mind, the team your playing is in the playoffs and has a good qb.  

[Milanos Milano]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

If you miss it, the other team wins. If you kick the extra point (which is an extremely high percentage play) you at least give your team a shot.

 

That's why you take the ball first, so you have the 3rd possession and can win in sudden death.

It’s a good thought process though. I guess it depends on who we are playing. A QB like Mahomes, or a QB like Burrows. If it’s Mahomes, I’m risking it and going for 2 points, if it is Burrows, I’m kicking the extra point and rolling on a defensive stop. 

[Andrew Son]

Just now, Tanoros said:

By taking the ball, your setting the team up to have the ball first should OT move to sudden death. 
 

To be honest, there isn’t a one size fits all answer to this question, and both sides have merit. Having the ball second, and being able to use 4 downs is a nice advantage. However, getting the ball first in sudden death is also a nice advantage. 
 

The nice thing about going second is having the ability to go for two and avoid sudden death. I don’t think it would be common for the first team with the ball to go for two, so the second team has a shot to either win it or lose it on a 2pt play. I’d take that with Allen all day any day. 

The only likely scenario where it goes to sudden death is if the first team kicks a FG and the other team is in a 4th and long situation and matches.

 

If the first team scores a TD, the second team- if they score- will certainly attempt the 2 vs. giving the ball back to the other team in a sudden death situation.

 

Knowledge is power and deferring is the obvious choice, outside of a weird weather situation where the wind direction is more important.  

[Dablitzkrieg]

We have Josh.  Score

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, MJS said:

If you miss it, the other team wins. If you kick the extra point (which is an extremely high percentage play) you at least give your team a shot.

 

That's why you take the ball first, so you have the 3rd possession and can win in sudden death or so you can watch helplessly as the other team completes the 2 point conversion.  

Fixed.  I don’t trust many defenses to stop great QBs from converting a 2 point conversion.  The league is geared towards offense