Bills match Bears Offer Sheet for Ryan Bates, 4 yr deal

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Small sample, but it was a 4-5 game stretch in 2020. Ford started the year at RG and when they go rid of Spain they added Winters. Winters became the starting RG and Ford went to left guard. I believe he got hurt in the Chiefs' game and replaced by Ike Boettger. I want to say his first start at LG was vs the Rams in week 3. Obviously he did not look great vs Aaron Donald, but over the next few games, it was where he looked most comfortable and effective in my opinion. 

 

Interesting.  Spain lost his starting job after Miami.  So that would be the Rams, Raiders, Titans, and 3/4 of the Chiefs game. 

 

I thought Ford kind of sucked in the Titans and Chiefs games, but he was on injury report all week and there were questions about whether he would play.

The Jets game was Boettger at LG and the Pats game Feliciano came back at LG then moved to C the 2nd drive after Morse went out (which I thought was kind of weird actually because initially Bates came in for him and we drove right down and scored).

 

I hadn't thought about the Rams and Raiders games where, you're right, we did have pretty decent line play

[MrEpsYtown]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Interesting.  Spain lost his starting job after Miami.  So that would be the Rams, Raiders, Titans, and 3/4 of the Chiefs game. 

 

I thought Ford kind of sucked in the Titans and Chiefs games, but he was on injury report all week and there were questions about whether he would play.

The Jets game was Boettger at LG and the Pats game Feliciano came back at LG then moved to C the 2nd drive after Morse went out (which I thought was kind of weird actually because initially Bates came in for him and we drove right down and scored).

 

I hadn't thought about the Rams and Raiders games where, you're right, we did have pretty decent line play

 

I didn't study all 22 or anything like that, but I just remember feeling pretty positive vibes and seeing things that stood out to me in his play next to Dion, and saying to myself, Cody Ford is a LG. It may have just been because Winters was so horrible in comparison. 

[ColoradoBills]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

This statement makes no sense to me "he literally could not have paid more for Bates than he did".  Of course he could have paid more for Bates.  He could have offered Bates such a good multi-year deal that Bates and his agent would have said "***** FA we sign this now!".   The Bears could also have offered Bates such a good deal that Beane would have said "yeah....No."

 

Agree.  I was one of the posters who used "perfect" that seemed to upset @BullBuchananso I will expound on my statement.

 

1.   I believe that the Bills and Bates/his agent did have long term contract talks.  It seems very logical to me.

2.  I think that Bates wanted more than Beane initially wanted to pay.  What those numbers were we probably will never know.

3.  If above is true it's back on Beane.  His choice was the $2.4M or the 2nd Round Tender.

     Most of my posts were about which was a smarter choice.  I at first thought the 2nd like many others.  BUT it would of left

     Bates on the team for a 1 year contract (highly doubtful anyone would of paid a 2nd).  Bates would of most like started and

     Beane would of had to go through all this again next year for what I believe much more money for a long term contract.

4.  So Beane let Bates talk to other teams.  Without a lot of tape on him the Bills know better what his worth is vs other teams.

5.  Bates got an offer and Beane no doubt said I can live with that.  

 

In conclusion I said Beane played this "perfectly" because he gets Bates on a contract he can live with and Bates has to be

happy to return to Buffalo knowing he is getting the best that he can get.  Win, win for everyone.

What's left is to hope Bates will play up to or above his contract numbers.

[Mat68]

Modern NFL lines are only as good as the weakest guy.  Bates raises that level if Saffold can continue good play.  I would expect 2 day 3 online man and the line is set. 

[Simon Says]

22 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Be interested to see the details ans whether we have restructured any other deals to make it work.

Check out Spotrac,Over The Cap etc .

[LabattBlue]

Have the contract numbers been released? Don't see them in OP. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

40 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I already answered all of this. You seem more interested in trying to prove me wrong than actually determining whether or not the move made sense.

 

Pot, kettle.  I'm actually trying to explain stuff to you, but you seem more interested in pursuing your own worldview while sniping at anyone and anything which contradicts it.

 

40 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Bates didn't go see what his market was before agreeing to sign an offer that was only as good as what Beane offered

 

This is a total straw man.  I am not saying this.  Someone else might have said this, I don't know.  I would doubt that Beane would have offered the same deal prior to FA.

 

But let's suppose that in fact, Beane did offer him just the same offer.  As with my analogy where you are trying to sell the house you inherited - if your brother makes you an offer on the house that you believe to be below market value, why wouldn't you go see what market value on the house is before you accept your brother's deal?   You put the house on the market, the best offer you got was somewhat similar, so you nod your head and say "OK, that's how the market values my house, so now I come back and do business with my brother because if I don't, I'll be in crap soup with the fam" (in Bates case, because the league rules for the RFA tender he got require it).

 

40 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

- he actually signed an offer with another team that we were able to match and retain him because of league rules.

 

Right, we agree - that's what happened.  Why do you see this as a sign of bad tactics on Beane's part, is the question?

 

40 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

He apparently was more than willing to play for the Chicago Bears.

 

I'm sure he was.  He had good "connections" with the FO and coaches there.  Why would he sign an offer sheet with them if he wasn't willing to play for them?

 

40 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Some posters have suggested that it's possible we offered him just as good of a deal, but he signed there anyway. Why would he do that if he wanted to be here? Why not just take our deal that was just as good?

 

See above - because (hypothetically, assuming such a deal was offered) at the point where it was offered, Bates didn't know what his market value was.   Once he tested the market, then he knew. 

 

My guess is that the same deal was not offered prior to FA; if a long term deal were offered, it would have been for less, but that's not relevant to the argument; Bates could not have in any way been forced to accept a deal prior to FA.

 

40 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

My statement that "he could not have paid more for Bates", has been defended numerous times already. By allowing all 31 teams to have the opportunity to bid on his services, he paid the top of market

 

The point is, Bates could have been offered a deal that was miles above what the 2nd round tender would have been, in which case Beane likely wouldn't have matched.  But he wasn't.

 

The second point is: how could Beane have stopped all 31 teams from bidding on Bates services?  The argument started out (to my understanding) that Beane was a poor negotiator not to offer Bates a 2nd round tender for 1 year, $4M instead of winding up with a slightly higher $4.25M AAV for a longer period of time. 

 

But there's value (to both sides) in a longer contract.  It's in the player's interest to let the market set his value before signing a long term deal; it's in Beane's interest (if they like a player and think he'll continue to improve) to lock him up to a longer deal as long as it's on reasonable terms vs. giving him almost the same AAV on a 1 year rental.

 

 

40 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

You're correct, I do think that Beane should have got to Bates before the market spoke. It's what good salespeople/negotiators do.

 

But how is this to have been achieved?  I think that's the heart of the dispute.

 

The only way I know of assuring it would have been to offer Bates whatever he and his agent thought his market value was, prior to him testing FA.  And if that wasn't a match for what Beane thought Bates was worth, why would he make that offer?  That would be poor negotiating on Beane's part.

You say "It's usually a privilege of the rich, but off market homes, art, cars, collectables, etc are bought all the time before the public can drive up the price."  This is true - but why?  It's not just because the buyer is some silver-tongued devil who can persuade the seller to take less.  There has to be another motivation.  The seller wants cash or a fast sale, or doesn't want the hassle of an auction.   Or, the buyer so values the object for sale that they are willing to ratchet up the price (or adjust the terms) to the point where the seller says "***** the open market I'll take the deal".

 

In this case, the terms are what they are under NFLPA rules.  The timeline for payment is what it is under NFLPA terms.  The value of the object in question (a NFL lineman who has started on a mediocre OL, without a large body of work) does not appear exceptional.

 

What exactly do you think should have happened?

 

21 minutes ago, BTB said:

Have the contract numbers been released? Don't see them in OP. 

 

Not the details, no.  Just that it's 4 years, $17M with $8.8 guaranteed in the first 2 years.

[LabattBlue]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Just that it's 4 years, $17M with $8.8 guaranteed in the first 2 years.

Thanks Hap! 👍

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I didn't study all 22 or anything like that, but I just remember feeling pretty positive vibes and seeing things that stood out to me in his play next to Dion, and saying to myself, Cody Ford is a LG. It may have just been because Winters was so horrible in comparison. 

 

When I think back about those games, my impression was that the line was pretty good.

 

Winters was just plain horrible.  It seemed like such an upgrade when Feliciano took over.

[Doc]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

I already answered all of this. You seem more interested in trying to prove me wrong than actually determining whether or not the move made sense.

Bates didn't go see what his market was before agreeing to sign an offer that was only as good as what Beane offered - he actually signed an offer with another team that we were able to match and retain him because of league rules. He apparently was more than willing to play for the Chicago Bears. Some posters have suggested that it's possible we offered him just as good of a deal, but he signed there anyway. Why would he do that if he wanted to be here? Why not just take our deal that was just as good?

My statement that "he could not have paid more for Bates", has been defended numerous times already. By allowing all 31 teams to have the opportunity to bid on his services, he paid the top of market. Sure, he could have offered Bates JA's contract for no reason, but let's keep this steeped in some sort of reality.

You're correct, I do think that Beane should have got to Bates before the market spoke. It's what good salespeople/negotiators do. It's usually a privilege of the rich, but off market homes, art, cars, collectables, etc are bought all the time before the public can drive up the price. That's the part of the job that actually takes skill. Any jabroni can walk into an open house, ask what the top bid is and beat it. That makes you the opposite of good. Of course this isn't as simple as offering less than market and getting someone to sign because you're a slick talker. You need other skills too - like being able to predict when players are going to break out before they do, what their motivations are, and how far you can push the negotiation before you break the deal.

 

The only thing anyone could possibly criticize the deal over is the amount of money.  But at best, you're talking maybe $1M/year more, which is a veteran minimum player salary these days.  And did it prevent the Bills from going on a spending spree?  Nope.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Rockinon said:

I'm just glad to have him back in the fold. As for the money side of it, I think both Bates and the Bills are happy. All the other stuff doesn't really matter. You can argue that the Bills paid too much or that Bates overvalued his worth or whatever, but if both parties are happy, there really is no need to over think it. Every contract has it's risks. Both sides try to get the best they can in order to secure the future. Trying to break down all of the nuances of contract negotiations with limited information just seems like a headache to me.

I agree with this.  And there's another point that is relevant to the discussion between BullBuch and Hapless, and that is that it's pointless to try to evaluate what Beane did or didn't do in a vacuum.   

 

Beane's given us some good insights into his job, when he talked about how he had to juggle things to get the Von Miller deal done.  What he meant was that he was working on multiple deals simultaneously, and while he was committing resources to McKissick, he couldn't overcommit on another guy or he wouldn't be able to the Miller deal.    He's thinking Saffold and what it will take to get him, and where he has to go with the oline if he does or doesn't get Saffold.   So, what resources to commit to Bates is a question mixed in and being answered simultaneously with the Miller question and the Saffold question and the Settle question, and some other questions about other players we don't know about because the deal didn't happen.  Beane had to make the best decisions he could as all of that was unfolding, and the outcome of it was that he may have overpaid for Bates in some actual-value sense.   But Beane could have been making the right decisions as facts presented themselves, and all it really means is Beane got through the process with one question left:  how much can we spend on Bates?   Chicago told him how much it had to be, and Beane just had to decide if he could, or would, pay that much.   He'd already decided that he could live with either outcome.  

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

The only thing anyone could possibly criticize the deal over is the amount of money.  But at best, you're talking maybe $1M/year more, which is a veteran minimum player salary these days.  And did it prevent the Bills from going on a spending spree?  Nope.

And for a decent starting right guard its really not a lot of money

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Unfortunately the Vikings have eyes and access to game tape...

 

I do think stranger things have happened though.... we got a pick for Marshall freaking Newhouse!

Personally hope at this point we just keep him and see if Kromer can work his magic.  Ford was much more palletable when he was a backup.

[Radar]

On 3/28/2022 at 2:49 PM, BillsEnthusiast said:

CB or receiver in round 1 lets gooooo

I'm a solid believer in BPO in first round especially.

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

And for a decent starting right guard its really not a lot of money

Personally hope at this point we just keep him and see if Kromer can work his magic.  Ford was much more palletable when he was a backup.

The best case would be Ford resurrects his career under Kromer's tutelage and we receive some value for an apparent bust, but Kromer values athleticism, and Ford's RAS is not good. If you can get someone to offer you a late draft pick, that's probably the best you are going to do.

[John from Riverside]

5 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

The best case would be Ford resurrects his career under Kromer's tutelage and we receive some value for an apparent bust, but Kromer values athleticism, and Ford's RAS is not good. If you can get someone to offer you a late draft pick, that's probably the best you are going to do.

I agree that Ford does not appear to fit Kromer's type of linemen....he doesnt like 'phone booth" guys

[JGMcD2]

4 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

You're correct, I do think that Beane should have got to Bates before the market spoke. It's what good salespeople/negotiators do. It's usually a privilege of the rich, but off market homes, art, cars, collectables, etc are bought all the time before the public can drive up the price. That's the part of the job that actually takes skill. Any jabroni can walk into an open house, ask what the top bid is and beat it. That makes you the opposite of good. Of course this isn't as simple as offering less than market and getting someone to sign because you're a slick talker. You need other skills too - like being able to predict when players are going to break out before they do, what their motivations are, and how far you can push the negotiation before you break the deal.

My direct tie to the 3 other Major Pro sports with very similar free agent market structures (NHL, NBA, MLB) was described by you as irrelevant to the discussion. 
 

Now you’re out here in the same breath talking about buying art, cars and collectibles? 
 

 

[BullBuchanan]

24 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

My direct tie to the 3 other Major Pro sports with very similar free agent market structures (NHL, NBA, MLB) was described by you as irrelevant to the discussion. 
 

Now you’re out here in the same breath talking about buying art, cars and collectibles? 
 

 

Yes, because we're speaking in generalities about negotiation and sales, whereas you were speaking in specifics about the nuances of sports contracts. There's a chasm of difference.

[NewEra]

4 years- 17M-  great deal is he pans out to be even slightly better than average.  

[JGMcD2]

25 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Yes, because we're speaking in generalities about negotiation and sales, whereas you were speaking in specifics about the nuances of sports contracts. There's a chasm of difference.

Haha yes, there is a chasm of difference. That being, one of us has a clue what they're talking about.

 

(Hint: It's not the guy from Right to Censor)

[finn]

16 minutes ago, NewEra said:

4 years- 17M-  great deal is he pans out to be even slightly better than average.  

The trouble is, you don't really want a starting guard who's only slightly above average, not at that price, and especially if the rest of the line is mostly just adequate to good. Dawkins is the only player who is excellent. 

 

After throwing two first-round picks, three second-round picks and a third-round pick at the D-line--and even then spending huge to get it right--it's time to finally invest in the O-line. Zion Johnson, ready to compete with Bates in 2022 and replace Saffold in 2023. Not sexy, but smart.