Bills match Bears Offer Sheet for Ryan Bates, 4 yr deal

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

3 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Do you know that Beane did not offer a similar contract?      No you do not.

What incentive would Bates and his agent have to sign a long term deal as an RFA - especially with the little tape on him?  Almost all RFA’s end up signing their qualifying offer for 1 year and hit the market the next - just like Wallace did for the Bills this year.

 

His agent would of been asinine to sign a long term deal this year - 1 year away from unrestricted free agency when next year the salary cap is beginning its huge jump - without testing the market.

The problem is no one knows what discussions Beane, Bates, the coaching staff, and the agent have had - so you have to go based on previous discussions and things Beane has said.  He has repeatedly stated he doesn’t mind letting guys test the market to find their worth if he thinks they are looking for more than he thinks is fair.  He has done it with several players.

 

My take from all this is the Bills had an AAV in mind and wanted a longer term deal.  The agent and maybe the player wanted to hit FA next year.  Using the tag allowed the agent to go find his worth around the league and still allowed the Bills a chance to resign.

 

My guess is if Chicago decided he was worth an AAV of 5-6 million or more - Beane walks away and uses that money to sign another Veteran guard.  If it was around 4 AAV - he obviously matches and gets a deal done.  It makes the agent and player happy as they essentially tested the market and gave Beane control over the situation.

 

The problem I have with your logic is twofold - you make a primary assumption that Beane and the agent did not have discussions on a long term deal or what the parameters around that might be.  We do not know that either way, but based on other RFAs across the league - it is common that these guys end up signing a tender and hitting FA the next year.

 

The second issue is that you say he literally couldn’t have paid more and that will not be answered until next year.  If he had signed the tender - plays most of the games and the Bills as expected win and go deep into the playoffs or even win it all - how much is he worth on the open market next year when the CAP goes up by 10-15 million.  
 

Beane is not perfect, but he used the tools he had to get a guy signed long term that the team obviously likes (they traded for him to start with) and got him locked up long term to an AAV they seem comfortable with.  My gut tells me Beane would of preferred an AAV of 3.5 rather than 4, but I believe long term 4 was acceptable.

 

The final thing is we do not know if this was the biggest offer - that was the offer he signed.  There is always a chance a team like NE offered him more on a 1 year deal and he was uncomfortable with the situation.  There is also the chance that Chicago wanted to structure the deal differently ( @GunnerBill heard up to 8 million for 1 year), but Bates and his agent made the structure they would sign something the Bears were fine with and if they wanted the Bills could match.  Whatever deal came out had to be something agreeable to Bates and his agent and they did not have to sign the biggest offer nor did they have to sign the offer that was hardest for the Bills to match.

 

We will never know, but we can now see that the Bills valued him and wanted a long term deal and around 4AAV was acceptable.

 

 

 

 

Pretty much completely agree with what you stated.  The only thing I'd throw out is; agree good chance Beane made Bates a long term contract offer, say $3.5 mil a year for 3 years.  Bates turns it down as wants to see what other teams would offer.

 

But likely Bates camp didn't know for certain till March 17th which tender the Bills were giving him, non compensation or 2nd round.  I doubt Beane would have told him that upfront and if given 2nd round tender, likely he'd get no offers from other teams.  Admittedly rumors were he'd be given non comp tender and agents are smart enough to gauge his value against others over the years and predict which tender, but nothing for certain either way till it would be too late to accept a long term deal from Bills.

 

If given the 2nd round tender, he plays for $4 mil this year for Bills and is a UFA next year.  That hurts the Bills as if he has a decent season, he could easily get $6 or $7 mil next year with exploding cap.  But he could get hurt in camp or Bills draft a guard and decide to start him instead. Bates hardly plays and value goes down next year as UFA.

 

So my point is there is some risk on player not accepting any long term offers given by Bills prior to tender, basically a risk on both sides.  But do also agree likely there was an offer made, for how much who knows?

 

Also think if he had not received any offers and played under tender, sometime late spring a longer term deal would have been made with Bills. likely for less than the $4 mil, maybe $3.5 mil.  However if he'd been given the 2nd round tender, then that would have been the starting point for any longer deal, probably more like $5 mil average.  Doubt he'd have seen UFA, but likely would have cost the Bills more.

[MrEpsYtown]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Unfortunately the Vikings have eyes and access to game tape...

 

I do think stranger things have happened though.... we got a pick for Marshall freaking Newhouse!

 

This is true! 

 

Russell Bodine too! And from the Hoodie. 

 

I guess, is Cody Ford better than a lottery ticket rookie in the 6th round this year? I dunno. But there has to be football people out there that still like him. A lot of smoke said he was a first rounder coming out. 

 

Maybe it's Joe Schoen or Dan Morgan in NY and Carolina right now where they have a need. 

Edited March 29, 2022 by MrEpsYtown

[NewEra]

4 hours ago, GolfandBills said:

Brown was also a project 3rd round pick thrown into the fire.  To say he was terrible is plain false.  

He said he was terrible in pass protection….he didn’t say he was terrible. He WAS terrible in pass protection.  
 

yes…..he was a project 3rd rd pick. Compared to other 3rd rd projects, maybe he wasn’t terrible in pass protection.  Compared to the standards of NFL lineman….he was terrible in pass protection.  
 

high upside and a better OL coach/scheme and we’ll hopefully see vast improvement 

[BADOLBILZ]

8 minutes ago, NewEra said:

He said he was terrible in pass protection….he didn’t say he was terrible. He WAS terrible in pass protection.  
 

yes…..he was a project 3rd rd pick. Compared to other 3rd rd projects, maybe he wasn’t terrible in pass protection.  Compared to the standards of NFL lineman….he was terrible in pass protection.  
 

high upside and a better OL coach/scheme and we’ll hopefully see vast improvement 

 

 

Yeah Brown was graded on a curve for sure...........he missed the college season of 2020 and made huge strides working with Joe Staley but he basically went from an obscure small school prospect the last time he played college ball in 2019........to being an NFL starter a few game days later.

 

It's to be expected that both he and Greg Rousseau(with just 1 year of college game experience) were going to be works in progress.  

 

They both stop getting graded on that curve this year (except for from the usual suspects on TSW who demand patience and low expectations until the very last paycheck of those rookie deals gets cashed ). 

[Mikie's Bills]

Glad that he is back just because the alternatives (Ford/Boettger) are awful/injured, but not going to get my hopes up that he'll solves the line issues. Hard to say with a new o-line coach and OC what will be asked of them. Worst case though he should be a dependable, slightly overpaid back-up. Agreed with the posters that O-line depth is a sneaky need for this team. Wouldn't be surprised if we spend a couple picks in Rounds 2-4 on a IOL and OT.

 

Also just wanna say that this situation is eerily similar to when we matched Ryan Groy's RFA contract from the Rams. Versatile back-up interior lineman that filled in admirably on the line at the end of the season before hitting RFA. Groy started 7 games over the next two seasons after the Bills matched his offer sheet.

 

Here's what we had to say about it at the time for comparison: 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I still think you "maybe" can trade Ford. He is still only 25. His play has been super inconsistent, but when you factor in the fact that he's been hurt so much and has barely played the last year, maybe someone with a need comes calling. The Bengals, Panthers, Vikings, Cardinals, Falcons, Eagles all showed some pretty significant interest in Ford in the draft process. 

 

The Panthers, Cards do not have draft capital, so they are probably out. 

 

Bengals have 8 picks, the Vikings have 4 sixth rounders, Falcons have 9 picks including 5 in the first three rounds, Eagles have 10 picks including 5 in the first three rounds and 3 fifth rounders. The Giants have 8 picks including 2 5ths and want to unload Bradberry. Is there a trade to be worked out there? Is Cody better than Shane Lemieux or would they try him at RT? The Texans could use Cody...they have ten picks including 2 4ths and 3 sixes. 

 

I guess my point is, if you are the Vikings and you flirted with Bates and need help at guard, why not throw one of your 4 sixth rounders at the Bills to see if a change of scenery would go Ford well. I feel like there may be a trade to made somewhere. 

 

To your last, I think you've addressed some of that question with the RAS you shared.  Isn't Bates >> Ford by that metric?  It was also pointed out in the Chicago media that Bears assistant GM Ian Cunningham was in the Eagles FO in 2019, when Bates signed with the Eagles as an UDFA.   There may be a Bears-Bates connection that isn't there for Ford.

 

I have a theory (with nothing behind it really) that Ford's injuries, and playing through them as much as he did, did him in as an NFL player.  Fractions of a second and fractions of an inch count in the NFL, and if injuries mess with that it can drop a player from a top prospect to a dud.  

 

I personally thought Ford looked OK in a couple of the games he played down the stretch - New Orleans, Carolina.    Not great, not "we're set at G!" but OK.  If the Bills agree, they'd want to hang on to Ford as relatively inexpensive backup help.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

34 minutes ago, buffblue said:

If they're comfortable with Doyle as swing, then so am I. But on paper it is the only remaining Oline question mark

 

24 minutes ago, NewEra said:

He said he was terrible in pass protection….he didn’t say he was terrible. He WAS terrible in pass protection.  
 

yes…..he was a project 3rd rd pick. Compared to other 3rd rd projects, maybe he wasn’t terrible in pass protection.  Compared to the standards of NFL lineman….he was terrible in pass protection.  
 

high upside and a better OL coach/scheme and we’ll hopefully see vast improvement 

 

The depth right now of Boettger, Ford, Doyle, and Mancz is pretty freakin weak.  We have 1 starter on a rookie deal, 2 backups - one whos barely played and one who is terrible.  Not to mention our starting RT is nowhere near a finished product.  I'd say starting RG is probably a need, and a swing tackle to at least compete is another.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, Mikie's Bills said:

Glad that he is back just because the alternatives (Ford/Boettger) are awful/injured, but not going to get my hopes up that he'll solves the line issues. Hard to say with a new o-line coach and OC what will be asked of them. Worst case though he should be a dependable, slightly overpaid back-up. Agreed with the posters that O-line depth is a sneaky need for this team. Wouldn't be surprised if we spend a couple picks in Rounds 2-4 on a IOL and OT.

 

IMHO, there is nothing "sneaky" about the Bills need for an improved OL and especially at G

 

Saffold on a 1 year deal age 34 is NOT a long term solution at guard

Bates was part of an OL Beane referred to as "a starting point" last season.

 

With top guards bringing in $14-16.5M AAV, the most logical way to improve the IOL is to draft the best guard that falls with your board.

22 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Yeah Brown was graded on a curve for sure...........he missed the college season of 2020 and made huge strides working with Joe Staley but he basically went from an obscure small school prospect the last time he played college ball in 2019........to being an NFL starter a few game days later.

 

Just a little point that part of the "curve" of grading is comparing Brown to the vet RT we re-signed because he looked so good in 2020, Williams.

Brown looked "good" relative to Williams who played like "got paid, sit back" at tackle.

[buffblue]

4 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

 

The depth right now of Boettger, Ford, Doyle, and Mancz is pretty freakin weak.  We have 1 starter on a rookie deal, 2 backups - one whos barely played and one who is terrible.  Not to mention our starting RT is nowhere near a finished product.  I'd say starting RG is probably a need, and a swing tackle to at least compete is another.  

I don't think it is as bad as you are stating. Boettger, Ford, and Mancz all have starting experience, and Doyle has significant athletic upside.

 

That said, the Bills roster is in good enough shape as a whole where they can afford to use a meaningful draft pick on depth. I just don't see it as anywhere near the need as WR or CB.

[dollars 2 donuts]

CB, WR (Stefon/Davis future replacement, just incase?), RB, LB (Edmunds future replacement, just incase?), OL (depth) in any reasonable order that makes sense given what's available in the round.

Edited March 29, 2022 by dollars 2 donuts

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 minutes ago, buffblue said:

I don't think it is as bad as you are stating. Boettger, Ford, and Mancz all have starting experience, and Doyle has significant athletic upside.

 

That said, the Bills roster is in good enough shape as a whole where they can afford to use a meaningful draft pick on depth. I just don't see it as anywhere near the need as WR or CB.

 

There are depth holes everywhere though.  Who's edmunds or milanos backup?  Are we keeping Edmunds or trying to find a new player there?  Doyle has upside but our backup tackle has barely played.  Our starting RG has never played RG, and the backups are mediocre as hell.  

 

There is no major need at WR - they have diggs davis crowder mckenzie.  I'd love another guy in there but will a 1st round pick make some tremendous impact this year?  I have no idea.  If you think the guy you draft can become a superstar though?  Go for it for the 5 years of cost control.  

 

Corner is definitely a need based on the tre white timetable - even with Jackson playing pretty well in the action he saw.  However, why is Jackson auto relegated to the bench?  Because he was a late pick?  That goes away the day you show up, and he showed up pretty well for Buffalo last year.  

[BullBuchanan]

4 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

You realize that Ryan Bates and his agent have to to accept any sort of extension offered to them, right?

 

This isn’t the reserve clause era of baseball where the team can just keep deciding to re-up a player year after year.

 

Player want to reach free agency…

Generally, players show they want long-term security more than they want to hit free agency. It's why so many players are upset to play under the franchise tag (despite it being more money), 5th year options, and push for deals with the highest possible guaranteed money.

 

Of course Bates wont just accept any offer we throw at him, but when you have exclusive rights to negotiate, you can leverage your sales and negotiation skills to make him feel like this is the right place to be and you can do it without any competition or outside interference. It takes less than zero skill to let him go get the best offer he can get and just agree to match it.

 

The only time there should really be an exception to this is if Bates really didn't want to be here and the only way you could keep him was matching his contract. It is a little funny they went through with the formal offer sheet process, when his agent just could have let Beane know what it was going to take once they saw what was out there in the market.

[JGMcD2]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

4 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

 

Generally, players show they want long-term security more than they want to hit free agency. It's why so many players are upset to play under the franchise tag (despite it being more money), 5th year options, and push for deals with the highest possible guaranteed money.

 

Of course Bates wont just accept any offer we throw at him, but when you have exclusive rights to negotiate, you can leverage your sales and negotiation skills to make him feel like this is the right place to be and you can do it without any competition or outside interference. It takes less than zero skill to let him go get the best offer he can get and just agree to match it.

 

The only time there should really be an exception to this is if Bates really didn't want to be here and the only way you could keep him was matching his contract. It is a little funny they went through with the formal offer sheet process, when his agent just could have let Beane know what it was going to take once they saw what was out there in the market.

The bolded is where I’m going to tell you you’re flat out incorrect and you will not win that argument. I have conversations with professional athletes every day of my life - they want to reach free agency. They strive to get the opportunity to reach the open market. 

 

They’re upset to play under the tag because they’re not allowed to test free agency and have other teams bargain for their services. It’s essentially being a RFA but with more money for 1 season. 
The franchise tag is so expensive to dissuade teams from preventing a player from reaching FA and to properly compensate players who do end up getting tagged. 
 

It all comes back to guys wanting to negotiate with other teams to see what they’re really worth. The NFLPA isn’t putting these things in place during CBA negotiations because they’re thinking about “long term security” they’re trying to create decisions that get players on the open market as soon as possible. 

[MrEpsYtown]

15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

To your last, I think you've addressed some of that question with the RAS you shared.  Isn't Bates >> Ford by that metric?  It was also pointed out in the Chicago media that Bears assistant GM Ian Cunningham was in the Eagles FO in 2019, when Bates signed with the Eagles as an UDFA.   There may be a Bears-Bates connection that isn't there for Ford.

 

I have a theory (with nothing behind it really) that Ford's injuries, and playing through them as much as he did, did him in as an NFL player.  Fractions of a second and fractions of an inch count in the NFL, and if injuries mess with that it can drop a player from a top prospect to a dud.  

 

I personally thought Ford looked OK in a couple of the games he played down the stretch - New Orleans, Carolina.    Not great, not "we're set at G!" but OK.  If the Bills agree, they'd want to hang on to Ford as relatively inexpensive backup help.

 

In terms of the Bears, I am not exactly sure what they are doing. They signed Lucas Patrick, athletic guy, flirted with Bates, super high RAS, then signed Dakota Dozier who may have one of the worst RAS scores around. Ford falls in the middle somewhere. But yeah the connection was there for Bates that won't be there for Ford, but at the end of the day they still need a RG. What they should do is sign JC Tretter to play center and play Patrick at guard, but they have already committed to Patrick playing at center so we shall see where it goes. But Poles comes from the Chiefs where they drafted Humphrey, Smith, Wylie and signed Thuney who are four of the most athletic lineman in the league in terms of RAS. Then you have Orlando Brown who had a RAS score of 0.72. 

 

I liked Cody Ford when he played LG next to Dion Dawkins before he got hurt. To me, that was him at his best. But I think the ship has sailed. I think we are headed the Chiefs way with super high RAS inemen. The Bears are probably as well. 

[aristocrat]

So I'm assuming we restructure Tre so we can get enough space to get all the draft picks signed?

[BullBuchanan]

4 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Do you know that Beane did not offer a similar contract?      No you do not.

 

The problem I have with your logic is twofold - you make a primary assumption that Beane and the agent did not have discussions on a long term deal or what the parameters around that might be.  We do not know that either way, but based on other RFAs across the league - it is common that these guys end up signing a tender and hitting FA the next year.

 

The second issue is that you say he literally couldn’t have paid more and that will not be answered until next year.  If he had signed the tender - plays most of the games and the Bills as expected win and go deep into the playoffs or even win it all - how much is he worth on the open market next year when the CAP goes up by 10-15 million. 

I know as much about what Beane did as the folks who claim that "Beane played it perfectly". Most of my statements are in response to that.

If Beane offered a similar contract, but Bates still decided to sign with Chicago - a team in rebuild mode, what does that say about the nature of the relationship between Bates and the Bills? If the money was the same, why would Bates want to play for Chicago over Buffalo?

When I say "he literally could not have paid more" - of course I mean this year. every year you wait on a young player, the price goes up. This statement has nothing to do with Bates. It has everything to do with countering the argument of others that "Beane let the other teams do his negotiating for them" by pointing out that he let Bates get the highest possible offer from every suitor in the league, and then he just matched it. There was no opportunity by Beane to get a less than top market deal under this approach.
 

[BullBuchanan]

8 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

The bolded is where I’m going to tell you you’re flat out incorrect and you will not win that argument. I have conversations with professional athletes every day of my life - they want to reach free agency. They strive to get the opportunity to reach the open market. 

 

They’re upset to play under the tag because they’re not allowed to test free agency and have other teams bargain for their services. It’s essentially being a RFA but with more money for 1 season. 
The franchise tag is so expensive to dissuade teams from preventing a player from reaching FA and to properly compensate players who do end up getting tagged. 
 

It all comes back to guys wanting to negotiate with other teams to see what they’re really worth. The NFLPA isn’t putting these things in place during CBA negotiations because they’re thinking about “long term security” they’re trying to create decisions that get players on the open market as soon as possible. 

If what you claim is true, why is it so rare for major stars (the ones who would gain the most from free agency) to hit the open market?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I liked Cody Ford when he played LG next to Dion Dawkins before he got hurt. To me, that was him at his best. But I think the ship has sailed. I think we are headed the Chiefs way with super high RAS inemen. The Bears are probably as well. 

 

Oh, I'm curious here. Can you tell me which season/games you're talking about and what you saw?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

If what you claim is true, why is it so rare for major stars (the ones who would gain the most from free agency) to hit the open market?

 

If we're talking about Ryan Bates deal here, are you contending that he's a star, or that the behavior of teams with major stars is relevant to his contract negotiations and RFA tag?

 

Seems like shifting the ground to me.

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If we're talking about Ryan Bates deal here, are you contending that he's a star, or that the behavior of teams with major stars is relevant to his contract negotiations and RFA tag?

 

Seems like shifting the ground to me.

Nope.