Bills match Bears Offer Sheet for Ryan Bates, 4 yr deal

[Doc Brown]

He's been on the team for three years so the Bills have had plenty of time to evaluate him.  By matching the offer sheet they obviously like the way he's developed along with his versatility in being able to play every position in the o-line.  I don't see this as that much of a risk as some fans on here do.

[JGMcD2]

5 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

To give Beane credit that he wanted Bates all along, but he chose to expose him to the open market knowing that all 31 other NFL GMs that watch all the same tape as he does would drive down Bates' value, because they don't see what he sees and then he could swoop in and snap him up at a discount  - is completely asinine. We're talking about the same guy that traded Wyatt teller away for a bag of footballs. He's not omnipotent.

You realize that Ryan Bates and his agent have to to accept any sort of extension offered to them, right?

 

This isn’t the reserve clause era of baseball where the team can just keep deciding to re-up a player year after year.

 

Player want to reach free agency…

[GunnerBill]

Just now, GolfandBills said:

Brown was also a project 3rd round pick thrown into the fire.  To say he was terrible is plain false.  

 

As a pass protector he definitely has a lot of improvement he needs to make. I think he was average to above average as a run blocker and you are right he was a raw project so it is not unexpected. My view as been all offseason that Brown should get first run at RT but the Bills should have a plan B that isn't just Tommy Doyle. 

[JGMcD2]

3 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Everyone's trying so hard to prove how right they are and how wrong I am, that you don't even see it anymore. Beane could have just as easily offered Bates the same deal at any point prior to today while preventing other teams from being able to offer him a contract without compensation. Why didn't he? Did he think his value was less? Does Bates want out and this was the only way we could trap him into a long term contract? Did he not know what it would take to close the deal? (I believe this could actually be possible based on his contract history).

This is a serious statement… can you, in your own words, please explain to me the Restricted Free Agency process. 
 

Lay out how it all works, discuss trends, etc. 

[Doc Brown]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

As a pass protector he definitely has a lot of improvement he needs to make. I think he was average to above average as a run blocker and you are right he was a raw project so it is not unexpected. My view as been all offseason that Brown should get first run at RT but the Bills should have a plan B that isn't just Tommy Doyle. 

Tackle depth is an underrated need for this team.  Pry second right now behind CB.  Ty Nsekhe is a free agent.  Just saying.

[Rochesterfan]

3 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Oh, it was "explained", but not in any way that is actually rational. People are deriving the process that best suits their agenda based on the result that already occurred. The problem is that the core principle of the argument doesn't hold up under even mild scrutiny. Just because a bunch of folks like the way it sounds to them doesn't make it logical.

Everyone's trying so hard to prove how right they are and how wrong I am, that you don't even see it anymore. Beane could have just as easily offered Bates the same deal at any point prior to today while preventing other teams from being able to offer him a contract without compensation. Why didn't he? Did he think his value was less? Does Bates want out and this was the only way we could trap him into a long term contract? Did he not know what it would take to close the deal? (I believe this could actually be possible based on his contract history).

How does it result in the best possible outcome by letting the entire market "do your negotiating for you"? In my experience, that's never true. Is Beane that bad of a negotiator that the only price he could get someone to agree to was tying the absolute top of the market? He literally could not have paid more for Bates than he did and yet somehow he played it "perfectly" according to you guys.
 

 

Do you know that Beane did not offer a similar contract?      No you do not.

What incentive would Bates and his agent have to sign a long term deal as an RFA - especially with the little tape on him?  Almost all RFA’s end up signing their qualifying offer for 1 year and hit the market the next - just like Wallace did for the Bills this year.

 

His agent would of been asinine to sign a long term deal this year - 1 year away from unrestricted free agency when next year the salary cap is beginning its huge jump - without testing the market.

The problem is no one knows what discussions Beane, Bates, the coaching staff, and the agent have had - so you have to go based on previous discussions and things Beane has said.  He has repeatedly stated he doesn’t mind letting guys test the market to find their worth if he thinks they are looking for more than he thinks is fair.  He has done it with several players.

 

My take from all this is the Bills had an AAV in mind and wanted a longer term deal.  The agent and maybe the player wanted to hit FA next year.  Using the tag allowed the agent to go find his worth around the league and still allowed the Bills a chance to resign.

 

My guess is if Chicago decided he was worth an AAV of 5-6 million or more - Beane walks away and uses that money to sign another Veteran guard.  If it was around 4 AAV - he obviously matches and gets a deal done.  It makes the agent and player happy as they essentially tested the market and gave Beane control over the situation.

 

The problem I have with your logic is twofold - you make a primary assumption that Beane and the agent did not have discussions on a long term deal or what the parameters around that might be.  We do not know that either way, but based on other RFAs across the league - it is common that these guys end up signing a tender and hitting FA the next year.

 

The second issue is that you say he literally couldn’t have paid more and that will not be answered until next year.  If he had signed the tender - plays most of the games and the Bills as expected win and go deep into the playoffs or even win it all - how much is he worth on the open market next year when the CAP goes up by 10-15 million.  
 

Beane is not perfect, but he used the tools he had to get a guy signed long term that the team obviously likes (they traded for him to start with) and got him locked up long term to an AAV they seem comfortable with.  My gut tells me Beane would of preferred an AAV of 3.5 rather than 4, but I believe long term 4 was acceptable.

 

The final thing is we do not know if this was the biggest offer - that was the offer he signed.  There is always a chance a team like NE offered him more on a 1 year deal and he was uncomfortable with the situation.  There is also the chance that Chicago wanted to structure the deal differently ( @GunnerBill heard up to 8 million for 1 year), but Bates and his agent made the structure they would sign something the Bears were fine with and if they wanted the Bills could match.  Whatever deal came out had to be something agreeable to Bates and his agent and they did not have to sign the biggest offer nor did they have to sign the offer that was hardest for the Bills to match.

 

We will never know, but we can now see that the Bills valued him and wanted a long term deal and around 4AAV was acceptable.

 

 

 

[BobbyC81]

16 hours ago, DapperCam said:

So we have...

Dawkins - Saffold - Morse - ? - Brown

And the question mark could be Ford, Bates, or Boettger?

I'm guessing the plan is for Bates to replace Saffold next year.

Or a youngster from this year’s draft.

[SectionC3]

If Cody Ford is still here this afternoon (not a given), then he is going to have a hard time making this team.  Which is a shame.  But the Bates match and the Boettger signing might be it for him. 

[Ralonzo]

16 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes.  

 

And there's something I keep thinking about that I think people don't see.  Beane professes to be, and I believe he is, strictly BPA in the first round.  He will take the BPA on his board, every time, in the first round.   However, that doesn't mean that he isn't thinking need.   Need is what causes him to trade picks.   If the BPA at his first-round pick is seriously someone he doesn't need, he won't take the BPA, and he won't take someone else.   He'll trade out of that pick.  

 

So, what I said about corner applies equally to WR.   I think what we'll see is Beane trade up in the first round to a place where the BPA also happens to be a position of need.  That is, he'll trade up for a corner or a receiver.   Maybe 25 to 20.   Trade a third or a fourth with the first to move up.  If he does that, we're all going to bed happy on the first night of the draft, because there's going to be a stud receiver or corner joining the team.  

 

One of the reasons he'll do this is that there aren't going to be many rookies making this team, so trading a pick or two is a smart move - why save a pick that will be used on a guy who's going to get cut instead of trading that pick to make it possible to move up for a player you want?   Also, of course, if you trade up, you help you cap situation, because it also means your likely to have fewer rookies eating cap.  

I agree that Beane has a philosophy of using draft trades to align BPA or at least BPA tier with need. That said, from the sounds of the scouting class it seems like the sweet spot of the draft will not be at the top end or late round depth, but rounds 2-4. These are players in a range where absolutely they will challenge hard for the 53. I would hope Beane will try to maximize value here, and not try to move up for fewer players or down for PS guys who would be poached.

 

The low round draft capital doesn’t move the needle on day 1 or day 2. Also there’s always a few unexpected picks and reaches at the top, at least, as long as the Raiders are still in the league. It could go a couple ways:

 

1) Nobody they love at 25 and trade down for day 2 capital.

2) Someone they love at 25 and draft him.

3) A few guys they love at 25 and trade down.

 

I don’t see the Bills using day 2 capital to move up on day 1. They ought to be looking to add younger (cheaper) contracts at any/all of CB, IOL, WR, LB, RB, S.

 

One scenario I actually wouldn’t hate is if there’s a position slide (QB?) and a team wants to jump from the top end of the 2nd up to 25, offering next years 1. Basically giving the 5th year option in exchange for draft value. All of that Allen draft maneuvering would not have been necessary if they had traded with Houston instead of KC - the future 1 (+#25o) that the Texans gave to move to 12 for Watson ended up being #4 overall the next year, as opposed to the future 1 from KC (+#27o). If a team that projects to be craptastic next year makes an offer of a future 1, that plays into building for continued success which Beane is always speaking to.
 

The Bills are finally in a position with a fairly loaded roster to maximize assets and let value come to them rather than reaching and chasing (Travares Tillman, Cyrus Kouandijo, John McCargo, Aaron Maybin, etc etc) as the traditionally competitive teams like Baltimore and Pittsburgh have done. More or less, the Polian way.

[MrEpsYtown]

33 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

If Cody Ford is still here this afternoon (not a given), then he is going to have a hard time making this team.  Which is a shame.  But the Bates match and the Boettger signing might be it for him. 

 

I still think you "maybe" can trade Ford. He is still only 25. His play has been super inconsistent, but when you factor in the fact that he's been hurt so much and has barely played the last year, maybe someone with a need comes calling. The Bengals, Panthers, Vikings, Cardinals, Falcons, Eagles all showed some pretty significant interest in Ford in the draft process. 

 

The Panthers, Cards do not have draft capital, so they are probably out. 

 

Bengals have 8 picks, the Vikings have 4 sixth rounders, Falcons have 9 picks including 5 in the first three rounds, Eagles have 10 picks including 5 in the first three rounds and 3 fifth rounders. The Giants have 8 picks including 2 5ths and want to unload Bradberry. Is there a trade to be worked out there? Is Cody better than Shane Lemieux or would they try him at RT? The Texans could use Cody...they have ten picks including 2 4ths and 3 sixes. 

 

I guess my point is, if you are the Vikings and you flirted with Bates and need help at guard, why not throw one of your 4 sixth rounders at the Bills to see if a change of scenery would go Ford well. I feel like there may be a trade to made somewhere. 

[Pags24]

7 hours ago, GreggTX said:

I hope we aren't overpaying him. He's a career backup. I assume the 4 year deal was to lure him away. We still have a gaping hole at RG. Brown is terrible in pass protection and not much better as a run blocker. I'd love to see us draft a CB in round 1 and go OL twice on day 2 or go OL/CB/RB. If Singletary goes down, our run game goes down with him. Moss and Johnson don't give me any confidence. Neither do Bates or Boettger. We will pay a price for our biggest salaries with a few more holes in other starting spots.

C'mon man.  Bates is the real deal and prior to week 16 of last year he was under-utilized by our coaching staff, should've been starting a long time ago.  He's got the ability to be a very good starting G for us for years to come

[pennstate10]

32 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I still think you "maybe" can trade Ford. He is still only 25. His play has been super inconsistent, but when you factor in the fact that he's been hurt so much and has barely played the last year, maybe someone with a need comes calling. The Bengals, Panthers, Vikings, Cardinals, Falcons, Eagles all showed some pretty significant interest in Ford in the draft process. 

 

The Panthers, Cards do not have draft capital, so they are probably out. 

 

Bengals have 8 picks, the Vikings have 4 sixth rounders, Falcons have 9 picks including 5 in the first three rounds, Eagles have 10 picks including 5 in the first three rounds and 3 fifth rounders. The Giants have 8 picks including 2 5ths and want to unload Bradberry. Is there a trade to be worked out there? Is Cody better than Shane Lemieux or would they try him at RT? The Texans could use Cody...they have ten picks including 2 4ths and 3 sixes. 

 

I guess my point is, if you are the Vikings and you flirted with Bates and need help at guard, why not throw one of your 4 sixth rounders at the Bills to see if a change of scenery would go Ford well. I feel like there may be a trade to made somewhere. 

As you say Ford is young. He’s not costing the Bills too much in cap. He plays both RT and guard. Might be worth seeing what the new (old) OL coach can do with him before kicking him to the curb. 
 

i doubt Bietker is ready to start the year. 

[clayboy54]

18 hours ago, Steptide said:

So does that mean bates has to sign back with the bills? Or does he have the option to sign with bears also 

He can sign with us as "Rick" and sign with da Bears as "Ryan". Then, he gets double the pay. Might be a little tired on Tuesdays, but so what?

[Beerball]

12 hours ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

They are, like my post says

Thanks for the clarification. That really clears things up.

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Tackle depth is an underrated need for this team.  Pry second right now behind CB.  Ty Nsekhe is a free agent.  Just saying.

 

Jason Peters is available and much better than Nsekhe.

 

Peters was a good starting LT last year on a $2M deal so he might want to wait until late summer again and walk into another starting opportunity............but I am for the idea of bringing him in that cheap and letting him play a few series every game at RT/LT until if/when he might be needed.    Keeping the OL fresh and preventing fatigue related injuries and performance decline will become a thing soon, IMO.

 

Then draft a potential future LT who can play guard in the meantime.

[MrEpsYtown]

22 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

As you say Ford is young. He’s not costing the Bills too much in cap. He plays both RT and guard. Might be worth seeing what the new (old) OL coach can do with him before kicking him to the curb. 
 

i doubt Bietker is ready to start the year. 

 

I just think Ford is done here. He is not a fit for what they seem to be looking for in athletic linemen, and I think he could use a change of scenery. This team will 100% draft some linemen this year, and they become your functional depth along with cheap vets like Mancz. There was enough love for the guy around the league in 2019 that the Bills felt they needed to trade up to get him, so there could be a team out there who would want to take a flyer. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

This place is goofy when it comes to Beane. He can do no wrong apparently. It's not enough that he's very good - he has to be the craftiest and smartest football mind anyone has ever seen - despite a not insignificant number of missteps.

 

Come off it with the goof-ball generalizations.  Plenty of the people who are debating here have criticized Beane before and will again.

In many of the areas where we criticized him, we've had to come back and eat crow (drafting Josh Allen) or at least nibble (Dawson Knox).  In others, such as the QB room Allen's rookie season, the state of the OL and WR corps Allen's rookie season, and not doing enough to upgrade it last year, we've been shown right and Beane has even acknowledged mistakes at times.

 

This isn't about "Beane can do no wrong" it's about you not understanding how different parts of the football organization work

 

9 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I really like Ryan bates and I have since i first watched him play his rookie year. That aside, the way he's been handled has been bizarre his entire time here.

If Beane valued Bates so highly and wanted him as part of his long term plan, he could have signed him to an extension at any point over the last year to lock him up without him testing free agency and they would have been able to control the terms. If he wasn't sure about it up until the tender period, he probably should have put more than the minimum tender on him, because the opportunity cost of losing him would be too great.

 

Let's try to summarize a few things that have been said in minimal words.

Coaching change:

1) The OL coach has a large say in how players currently on the team are evaluated and who plays

2) That was Bobby Johnson

3) Therefore, the coach responsible for keeping Bates on the bench is gone, and there's now a new sheriff in Aaron Kromer who may evaluate differently

4) Also, players grow and improve.  It's possible that Bates wasn't ready to play previous years, but got his shot and made good

 

Free agency:

1) Beane could not "lock Bates up without testing free agency".  That's just Bull.  Bates agent and Bates have to see it as a good deal FOR THEM.  Beane does not control the terms of the contract.  He controls the terms of the offer.

2) If Beane had given Bate a 2nd round tender, he'd have Bates signed for 1 year for $4.2M.  Then he'd have to re-negotiate a longer term deal, perhaps after Bates has put more on tape and is more attractive to 31 other teams.

3) By putting a 'right of first refusal tender' on Bates, Bates got the chance to explore his value to other teams and Beane got the chance to match it.

These are just facts.

 

OK, "Fail" on the minimal words.

 

9 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

To give Beane credit that he wanted Bates all along, but he chose to expose him to the open market knowing that all 31 other NFL GMs that watch all the same tape as he does would drive down Bates' value, because they don't see what he sees and then he could swoop in and snap him up at a discount  - is completely asinine. We're talking about the same guy that traded Wyatt teller away for a bag of footballs. He's not omnipotent.

At any point during the previous or upcoming season. He hadn't talked with any other teams until we opened that door for him.

 

This is not what people are saying. 

 

A plausible scenario is that Beane may have wanted to re-sign Bates, but the two sides could not agree on a long-term contract.  Maybe Beane wanted 2 years and $4M guaranteed, while Bates wanted 4 years and $12M guaranteed.  So the sides agree to disagree, Beane puts the "right of refusal" tender on Bates, and Bates goes off to negotiate his worth in the open market.

 

The risk there, is that Bates will get seriously overpaid or that the contract will be structured such that the Bills can't match the first year, but that seems like a manageable risk for a guy who doesn't have a lot of NFL game film yet.

 

I haven't seen the terms yet, have you? So I can't comment on the structure.  But the AAV of $4.25M is 6% more than the 2nd round tender could have been, which is probably a decent trade-off for a long-term contract if Bates continues the play he showed at the end of the season.  It slots him into the Pat Elflein/Wes Schweitzer/AJ Cann/Lucas Patrick range, which IMO is "capable vet guards who have shown they can start in the NFL, but do not flash as top-tier talent". 

 

Last year the Bills gave Jon Feliciano what was reported as a 3 year, $14.4M contract with $4.4M guaranteed at signing.  This was essentially a 1 year, $4.4M contract and may represent market value or somewhat above for a capable vet who can play G and C.  It was an overpay for the Feliciano we saw last season, but didn't seem unreasonable based on the "spark" he seemed to give the OL when he returned Week 8 of 2020 or for having a G who could fill in seamlessly when Morse went out. 

 

With reported $8.8M guaranteed, essentially the Bills are matching a 2 year contract at this valuation.

 

But now Bates is willing to sign such a contract, because he's set his market value.

[buffblue]

3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Tackle depth is an underrated need for this team.  Pry second right now behind CB.  Ty Nsekhe is a free agent.  Just saying.

If they're comfortable with Doyle as swing, then so am I. But on paper it is the only remaining Oline question mark

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I still think you "maybe" can trade Ford. He is still only 25. His play has been super inconsistent, but when you factor in the fact that he's been hurt so much and has barely played the last year, maybe someone with a need comes calling. The Bengals, Panthers, Vikings, Cardinals, Falcons, Eagles all showed some pretty significant interest in Ford in the draft process. 

 

The Panthers, Cards do not have draft capital, so they are probably out. 

 

Bengals have 8 picks, the Vikings have 4 sixth rounders, Falcons have 9 picks including 5 in the first three rounds, Eagles have 10 picks including 5 in the first three rounds and 3 fifth rounders. The Giants have 8 picks including 2 5ths and want to unload Bradberry. Is there a trade to be worked out there? Is Cody better than Shane Lemieux or would they try him at RT? The Texans could use Cody...they have ten picks including 2 4ths and 3 sixes. 

 

I guess my point is, if you are the Vikings and you flirted with Bates and need help at guard, why not throw one of your 4 sixth rounders at the Bills to see if a change of scenery would go Ford well. I feel like there may be a trade to made somewhere. 

 

Unfortunately the Vikings have eyes and access to game tape...

 

I do think stranger things have happened though.... we got a pick for Marshall freaking Newhouse!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, buffblue said:

If they're comfortable with Doyle as swing, then so am I. But on paper it is the only remaining Oline question mark

 

I expect they will pick someone up after the draft if they don't draft someone.  I agree that in theory, Bates says he can play across the OL but in practice, I don't want to see him at LT