You don't draft a guard in the 1st ... or do you?

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

You're just as likely to draft a Chance Warmack or Jonathan Cooper who btw were both considered "can't miss" players.

 

In fairness, and as you will see from my other posts in the topic I broadly agree with your overall point, Cooper and Warmack have to be seen in the context of that awful 2013 draft. 

 

They were GMs trying to find "safe" prospects who wouldn't bust in a first round full of them. If you put either in the following year's class there is no chance they go top 15 IMO. Might still have gone at the end of day 1 but that would have been their ceiling. 

[BillsShredder83]

On 4/4/2022 at 3:38 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

I also think the pure numbers are relevant here. 13 of those guys were selected as guards (Leatherwood, Howard, Fluker, Pugh and Flowers were all selected as tackles and busted). 

 

So 13 times an NFL team felt like there was a guard worthy of a first round selection. Let's leave out AVT because it is too early to make a judgment either way. We are down to 12. Seven of the remaining 12 have made pro-bowls. The exceptions are Cooper, Warmack, Garnett who are the three busts. Then Zeitler who has been a solid player but not a difference maker and Lindstrom who has improved each year and is very likely heading towards pro-bowl and even possible all pro honours. 

 

So let's say it is 8 of 12 who are at least pro-bowl level players (5 of 12 are all-pros). That tells its own story IMO. It tells you that NFL teams are only willing to select a guard in round 1 if they think he has pro-bowl level potential. And they are generally pretty good at getting that right. 

 

Now personally my threashold would be "all pro level potential" and while I have only been grading players since 2014 the only guys I on that list I had 1sts on were Martin, Scherff, Nelson and AVT. It is also worth saying I actually had Scherff graded as a tackle with guard flex (but I include him as a pure guard for these purposes because Washington put him there right away), and Martin and AVT as guards with tackle flex. I have had a 5th guard with a 1st round grade - Forest Lamp - but he was taken in the 2nd and flamed out with a comination of scheme changes and injuries. 

 

So maybe the NFL sets its bar slightly less high to take a guard than I would, but I think it sets it signifcantly higher than it does for most other spots. If they think a guy can just be a "good starting guard for a decade" they don't ordinarily take that guy in round one. They'd rather take a shot at a guy at a premium position. Let me give an example - AJ Cann. In that 2015 class he was talked about as a possible late first rounder coming out of South Carolina. I believe Kiper had a first round grade on him. But he fell in the end to the top of the 3rd where Jacksonville took him. He has been for the most part a solid starting guard. The Jags extended him and he played two contracts (7 seasons total) there as a starter. He got hurt last year and they didn't extend him again so he signed for Houston as a FA last month. He has had a better career than a lot of WRs and Corners and Edge players taken ahead of him and that was pretty predictable at draft time. But a guy who is just a solid starter for 7 years at guard is a third round pick. 

 

So that is the question teams have to ask themsleves on Kenyon Green and Zion Johnson this year. If their answer on pro-bowl potential is "yes" then they will be first rounders (my guess is at least one if not both are - 'cos it only takes one team to think that) but if teams ask are these regular pro-bowl level talents and the answer is "no" then they could slip into day 2 even if teams think they are better players than say, the 6th wide receiver or the 7th corner. And the reason for that is teams know that the opportunity cost of using that premium asset on a non-premium position is significant.

 

In conclusion, Thurm isn't wrong to question the "never take a guard in round 1" argument. However, the premise should be only take a guard in round one in exceptional circumstances and teams should, and seemingly do, really test themselves on what they are doing when they are about to pull that trigger. If they have any doubt, or it is close between guard and a premium position, they should always go elsewhere.

this is better than things i see in the national media, on a regular basis. really been enjoying your draft posts since i picked up on them. would you be willing to share your board, genuinely out of curiosity (if PM makes this easier cool)?

what main traits factor into your decisions on the draft board?

also curious what made you start grading out entire drafts? if youre a scout at some level that makes sense, but if youre just a reg dude thats a wild hobby to pick up. either way thanks for everything you bring to board lately

[GunnerBill]

41 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

this is better than things i see in the national media, on a regular basis. really been enjoying your draft posts since i picked up on them. would you be willing to share your board, genuinely out of curiosity (if PM makes this easier cool)?

what main traits factor into your decisions on the draft board?

also curious what made you start grading out entire drafts? if youre a scout at some level that makes sense, but if youre just a reg dude thats a wild hobby to pick up. either way thanks for everything you bring to board lately

 

Thanks. That is very kind. I always do a post the weekend before the draft which brings all my draft content for that year together, lists all my first round grades, does an analysis of my top 100 and then my top 5s at every position group. Plus links to my posts on sleepers, my QB evaluations and my final mock etc. 

 

As for how I got into it... no I an entirely self taught. I started trying in 2014. I didn't understand how a lot of the 2013 draft could be so bad (answer it was a historically undertalented class) so I started trying to grade players. I had a few conversations at the time with other people who do it (including Bandit when he posted here) and asked what they look for etc. So in 2014 I think I watched film on about 70 players (last year was 129, my highest was 148). I look back at that first attempt and there were some highs and lows. I much preferred Jake Matthews to Greg Robinson at tackle. I thought Mike Evans and not Sammy Watkins was the best receiver in the draft. And I had Aaron Donald, Ryan Shazier and Zack Martin in my top 10. On the flip side I did have Bortles as QB1, had a top 15 grade on Kelvin Benjamin and didn't like Khalil Mack. 

 

I'd like to think I have got better at it over the years. I started really by saying "this guy I am looking at on tape - is there someone in the league right now having success that plays like this?" and then I really looked at all positions for balance because one guy I spoke to who has worked in the NFL told me at every position you need players who play "in balance" even now that was a great tip I hold by. 

 

But as I have gone along I have developed more of my own kind of traits profiles for each positions. Guys who have been around for a while on here know what they are... I like Quarterbacks who can throw the seam route. I like receivers who are good route runners. I like offensive tackles with good, quick, feet. I like edge rushers with heavy hands. I like corners with instincts. One of the things I have changed as I have gone and I think it reflects where the league has gone in the past decade or so.... I have started to be more of a ceiling scouter. Previously I considered myself a floor scouter. But missing on Josh Allen and a couple of other high ceiling guys you have to go back and look at where the league is moving and it is those freaks who teams are generally better at accomodating and developing now than maybe 10 years ago when if you had a wide receiver who was 6'5 and ran a 4.35 but wae a long strider you'd still see teams trying to shoehorn him into a west coast intermediate route offense running comebacks and crossers. 

 

I also try to factor positional value into my grading scheme. So if I think you are a 10 year plug and play starter as a #1 corner that might be a 1st round grade. If I think the same applies but you are a guard that is a 2nd round grade. To be a first round grade as a guard you have to be in my "potential elite NFL player" bracket. 

 

I also try really hard not to look too much at what the draft media is doing in February and March. I will generally look in a few places at the start of Jan when I really begin my process in earnest to compile a list of guys I need to watch. But then you can get reallt caught up in "this guy is rising and this guy is falling" and just in other people's opinions. I am lucky enough to have a couple of pretty good folks who I have enough of a relationship with to reach out to and ask them a question if I am seeing something I am not sure about with a guy but I try really hard to make sure any position I am taking is my own position and not a parroting of someone else's. If I am higher on a player, so be it. If I am lower on a player, fine. 

 

It is a wild hobby I suppose. I am a bit like that though. I always want to ask why. I am the guy who can come out of the movie theatre after a 3 hour action blockbuster and obssess about the continuity error I spotted halfway through. I think the draft play to my natural pedantry and inquistive nature. Sorry if that's a long answer!

Edited April 5, 2022 by GunnerBill

[BillsShredder83]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Thanks. That is very kind. I always do a post the weekend before the draft which brings all my draft content for that year together, lists all my first round grades, does an analysis of my top 100 and then my top 5s at every position group. Plus links to my posts on sleepers, my QB evaluations and my final mock etc. 

 

As for how I got into it... no I an entirely self taught. I started trying in 2014. I didn't understand how a lot of the 2013 draft could be so bad (answer it was a historically undertalented class) so I started trying to grade players. I had a few conversations at the time with other people who do it (including Bandit when he posted here) and asked what they look for etc. So in 2014 I think I watched film on about 70 players (last year was 129, my highest was 148). I look back at that first attempt and there were some highs and lows. I much preferred Jake Matthews to Greg Robinson at tackle. I thought Mike Evans and not Sammy Watkins was the best receiver in the draft. And I had Aaron Donald, Ryan Shazier and Zack Martin in my top 10. On the flip side I did have Bortles as QB1, had a top 15 grade on Kelvin Benjamin and didn't like Khalil Mack. 

 

I'd like to think I have got better at it over the years. I started really by saying "this guy I am looking at on tape - is there someone in the league right now having success that plays like this?" and then I really looked at all positions for balance because one guy I spoke to who has worked in the NFL told me at every position you need players who play "in balance" even now that was a great tip I hold by. 

 

But as I have gone along I have developed more of my own kind of traits profiles for each positions. Guys who have been around for a while on here know what they are... I like Quarterbacks who can throw the seam route. I like receivers who are good route runners. I like offensive tackles with good, quick, feet. I like edge rushers with heavy hands. I like corners with instincts. One of the things I have changed as I have gone and I think it reflects where the league has gone in the past decade or so.... I have started to be more of a ceiling scouter. Previously I considered myself a floor scouter. But missing on Josh Allen and a couple of other high ceiling guys you have to go back and look at where the league is moving and it is those freaks who teams are generally better at accomodating and developing now than maybe 10 years ago when if you had a wide receiver who was 6'5 and ran a 4.35 but wae a long strider you'd still see teams trying to shoehorn him into a west coast intermediate route offense running comebacks and crossers. 

 

I also try to factor positional value into my grading scheme. So if I think you are a 10 year plug and play starter as a #1 corner that might be a 1st round grade. If I think the same applies but you are a guard that is a 2nd round grade. To be a first round grade as a guard you have to be in my "potential elite NFL player" bracket. 

 

I also try really hard not to look too much at what the draft media is doing in February and March. I will generally look in a few places at the start of Jan when I really begin my process in earnest to compile a list of guys I need to watch. But then you can get reallt caught up in "this guy is rising and this guy is falling" and just in other people's opinions. I am lucky enough to have a couple of pretty good folks who I have enough of a relationship with to reach out to and ask them a question if I am seeing something I am not sure about with a guy but I try really hard to make sure any position I am taking is my own position and not a parroting of someone else's. If I am higher on a player, so be it. If I am lower on a player, fine. 

 

It is a wild hobby I suppose. I am a bit like that though. I always want to ask why. I am the guy who can come out of the movie theatre after a 3 hour action blockbuster and obssess about the continuity error I spotted halfway through. I think the draft play to my natural pedantry and inquistive nature. Sorry if that's a long answer!

Tip of the cap to you that's really freaking cool. Seriously! Sounds like a lot of fun to monitor the rookies, and your drafts over time.

 

Who's your favorite non-Bill, active, that you think you scouted well. Draft gem maybe?

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Tip of the cap to you that's really freaking cool. Seriously! Sounds like a lot of fun to monitor the rookies, and your drafts over time.

 

Who's your favorite non-Bill, active, that you think you scouted well. Draft gem maybe?

 

So some of the favourites are always guys you were a lot higher than the consensus on that pan out. I thought Roby Anderson was at worst a 4th rounder. He went undrafted. In 6 seasons he has over 4,600 yards and 28 TDs despite atrocious QB play in two spots. Shaq Mason was another. I had a day 2 grade on him, New England took him in the 5th round and he became a top half dozen guard in the league. David Edwards I had a day 2 grade on think the Rams took him in the 4th or 5th he was an every game starter at guard on the newly crowned Superbowl Champs. Nick Allegretti was a 7th rounder I really liked he was a starter at guard on the Chiefs Superbowl team. I actually really liked Gabe Davis as a day 2 guy as well, was delighted the Bills managed to snag him in the 4th. Matt Milano I liked a lot too (although had him right about where the Bills took him). I know you asked for non-Bills but throwing them in. Dak Prescott at Quarterback. I had a 2nd round grade on him and felt he was undervalued all the way through the process by people saying his ceiling was a backup. 

 

There are loads of evaluations I wish I could have back too. Didn't like Josh Allen, did like Shaq Lawson, was not sold on Justin Jefferson as a true first rounder... you kind have to enjoy the wrong ones as much as the right ones. It's a bit like Parcells used to tell Phil Simms - if you ain't throwing picks, you ain't trying hard enough. If you are not having some bad misses as a draft evaluator you are probably a play it safe be on the fence about every prospect type. And where is the fun in that??

 

[papazoid]

you dont pass on a pro bowler at any position to take a solid starter at another

 

it's best available...if thats a guard...so be it

[newcam2012]

On 4/3/2022 at 11:11 PM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Don't be sorry.

 

You seem desperate to believe I'm angry or that you bothered me. You flatter yourself.

 

Again, when I see stupid ideas posted, sometimes I point out how stupid they are. It's no bother at all.

I can attest to this. I've been corrected a few times by you. Of course, it's never taken personally. 

[Bill from NYC]

26 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So some of the favourites are always guys you were a lot higher than the consensus on that pan out. I thought Roby Anderson was at worst a 4th rounder. He went undrafted. In 6 seasons he has over 4,600 yards and 28 TDs despite atrocious QB play in two spots. Shaq Mason was another. I had a day 2 grade on him, New England took him in the 5th round and he became a top half dozen guard in the league. David Edwards I had a day 2 grade on think the Rams took him in the 4th or 5th he was an every game starter at guard on the newly crowned Superbowl Champs. Nick Allegretti was a 7th rounder I really liked he was a starter at guard on the Chiefs Superbowl team. I actually really liked Gabe Davis as a day 2 guy as well, was delighted the Bills managed to snag him in the 4th. Matt Milano I liked a lot too (although had him right about where the Bills took him). I know you asked for non-Bills but throwing them in. Dak Prescott at Quarterback. I had a 2nd round grade on him and felt he was undervalued all the way through the process by people saying his ceiling was a backup. 

 

There are loads of evaluations I wish I could have back too. Didn't like Josh Allen, did like Shaq Lawson, was not sold on Justin Jefferson as a true first rounder... you kind have to enjoy the wrong ones as much as the right ones. It's a bit like Parcells used to tell Phil Simms - if you ain't throwing picks, you ain't trying hard enough. If you are not having some bad misses as a draft evaluator you are probably a play it safe be on the fence about every prospect type. And where is the fun in that??

 

I had a very high grade on Dak as well. The reason he dropped was because he got a DUI shortly before the draft. I remember countless people defending him, saying that he was really not prone to this sort of behavior.  I REALLY wanted the Bills to grab him early.

Instead, we waited and grabbed the great Cardale Jones. 

[MrEpsYtown]

19 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

I had a very high grade on Dak as well. The reason he dropped was because he got a DUI shortly before the draft. I remember countless people defending him, saying that he was really not prone to this sort of behavior.  I REALLY wanted the Bills to grab him early.

Instead, we waited and grabbed the great Cardale Jones. 

I really thought the Bills were going to take Dak that year. 

 

Apparently David Lee wanted him and Whaley did not: 

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/07/22/buffalo-bills-david-lee-claims-wanted-draft-russell-wilson-dak-prescott/

Edited April 5, 2022 by MrEpsYtown

[BillsShredder83]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So some of the favourites are always guys you were a lot higher than the consensus on that pan out. I thought Roby Anderson was at worst a 4th rounder. He went undrafted. In 6 seasons he has over 4,600 yards and 28 TDs despite atrocious QB play in two spots. Shaq Mason was another. I had a day 2 grade on him, New England took him in the 5th round and he became a top half dozen guard in the league. David Edwards I had a day 2 grade on think the Rams took him in the 4th or 5th he was an every game starter at guard on the newly crowned Superbowl Champs. Nick Allegretti was a 7th rounder I really liked he was a starter at guard on the Chiefs Superbowl team. I actually really liked Gabe Davis as a day 2 guy as well, was delighted the Bills managed to snag him in the 4th. Matt Milano I liked a lot too (although had him right about where the Bills took him). I know you asked for non-Bills but throwing them in. Dak Prescott at Quarterback. I had a 2nd round grade on him and felt he was undervalued all the way through the process by people saying his ceiling was a backup. 

 

There are loads of evaluations I wish I could have back too. Didn't like Josh Allen, did like Shaq Lawson, was not sold on Justin Jefferson as a true first rounder... you kind have to enjoy the wrong ones as much as the right ones. It's a bit like Parcells used to tell Phil Simms - if you ain't throwing picks, you ain't trying hard enough. If you are not having some bad misses as a draft evaluator you are probably a play it safe be on the fence about every prospect type. And where is the fun in that??

 

This is some of my favorite posts I've read on this board in 10years. Very much appreciate you taking the time to share. I'm thinking about doing a mini evaluation for this year as a practice run, and see if I can build on it next year.

 

I know this is vague and maybe hard to answer. Somewhat I need to sink or swim on the fly, to learn.... but any advice for someone wanting to start? Can be as simple or difficult of an answer as you'd like 😁

[SoTier]

On 4/4/2022 at 11:08 AM, SoCal Deek said:

I've never cared what position is taken where or when in the draft. All every front office should be looking for is to get two or three legitimate starters out of every year's class. It really doesn't make any difference to me what roster spots those rookies fill.

 

 

On the current Bills roster, "legitimate starters" have to be pretty good, especially on offense.  This regime isn't going to draft a guard -- or WR or CB -- in the first round to be a JAG.  They're looking for players, whatever their position, who are better than what they've got on the roster now and have the potential to be among the top players in the league at their position.   Maybe there's nobody that's that caliber available when they pick, so they have to make the best of it.   What I sure don't want to do is to pass on a super talented guard to take a lesser talented player at a supposed "more important" position.

 

On 4/4/2022 at 11:16 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

There are 3 good reasons to never select a guard or in round 1.

 

Money.

 

Organizational impact.

 

Successful habits.

 

1) You can always buy a very good guard or two cheap in UFA.........sometimes all pro's with no perceived liabilities and in their mid 20's even............this is RARELY the case with players at premium positions.     Not only can drafting a player at a big $ position save you money in the first contract but it gives you a chance to have negotiating leverage on that player prior to the first contract ending.    The savings can be substantial and the tens of millions we are talking about have real value.

 

2) As far as organizational impact........guards rarely have the opportunity to actually change games on the field.........that's usually done by QB's with significant assistance from edge/island players.   This is why the money flows the way it does in the NFL.   You want to be good at the LOS but you don't need to draft interior lineman early to be good at the point of attack.  And as an aside they don't move the needle off of the field by making your team more interesting/marketable/attractive.

 

3) And ultimately you either are a consistent, sound decision maker as a GM..........or you aren't.    I've been saying it for 15+ years here........the draft is an ongoing process of team building not just an annual event to patch up holes.   Is the juice at G ever worth the squeeze to break from common sense?  Not when you consider the opportunity cost.   Ask the Chiefs if they wish they had that CEH first rounder back.   The rationalization for selecting a guard is not much different than a RB.........we tend to think of RB's as disposable and G's as ten year assets.........but what they share in common is the likelihood that if they reach their lofty 1st round ceiling then your team won't feel compelled to retain that player at their open market figure.   

 

Yeah ... guards seldom  actually change games until some gem like Ross Tucker or Bennie Anderson whiffs on a block and your QB leaves on a cart, maybe for the season.

 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, SoTier said:

Yeah ... guards seldom  actually change games until some gem like Ross Tucker or Bennie Anderson whiffs on a block and your QB leaves on a cart, maybe for the season.

 

 

Yeah it's important to have at least adequate players at every OL position..........if one is awful it can blow up everything..........that's primarily why the Bills allowed 125 combined pressures and sacks last year......TERRIBLE left guard play for most of the year.  

 

All the while an adequate 4 year vet was riding the pine just waiting to have his number called.

 

That doesn't happen at QB or Pass Rusher or LT or WR. 

 

The most egregious example in Bills history of horrible guard play costing a Bills team games might have been when they let Andy Levitre walk and replaced him with Colin Brown...........who proceeded to make Benny Anderson and Ross Tucker look like John Hannah and Eugene Upshaw by comparison.

 

Colin Brown literally kept that team out of the playoffs that year..........teams game-planned to cut him from the herd.   

 

But it isn't hard to find adequate talents at guard.  

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

This is some of my favorite posts I've read on this board in 10years. Very much appreciate you taking the time to share. I'm thinking about doing a mini evaluation for this year as a practice run, and see if I can build on it next year.

 

I know this is vague and maybe hard to answer. Somewhat I need to sink or swim on the fly, to learn.... but any advice for someone wanting to start? Can be as simple or difficult of an answer as you'd like 😁

 

So I'd say a few things - 1. the tip that was given to me... look for guys who play with good balance at all positions. If they don't there is a technical flaw somewhere. 

 

2. Watch position groups together. Don't grab someone's draft board and go down it guy by guy. If you are gonna spend two hours watching film then just watch one position for two hours... helps you really get the ranking within the position group more accurate. 

 

3. Try not to watch "as a Bills fan". It can lead you to talking yourself into guys at positions of need and that are perfect Bills fits rather than just thinking "how well does this guy's game translate to the NFL?". 

[Airseven]

Bates staying as the primary backup at all 3 IOL positions would be ideal. But the fact they matched says he's penciled in as a starter (Mancz primary depth). They do need a young IOL but not R1. Need/value is best served in R3-4.

[Bill from NYC]

17 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The most egregious example in Bills history of horrible guard play costing a Bills team games might have been when they let Andy Levitre walk and replaced him with Colin Brown...........who proceeded to make Benny Anderson and Ross Tucker look like John Hannah and Eugene Upshaw by comparison.

 

😁  Was Colin Brown as bad as Marcus Spriggs? I thought Spriggs was the worst guard ever. I don't think that he ever completed a successful block lol!

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

😁  Was Colin Brown as bad as Marcus Spriggs? I thought Spriggs was the worst guard ever. I don't think that he ever completed a successful block lol!

Colin Brown started the first 5 weeks and then was not just benched but released. He was terrible.

Edited April 6, 2022 by GunnerBill

[GunnerBill]

19 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

.

 

Colin Brown literally kept that team out of the playoffs that year..........teams game-planned to cut him from the herd.  

 

He played the first 5 games, in which we went 2-3 with wins in the EJ game v the Panthers and the Kiko game v the Ravens  

 

We ended the season 6-10. So we were 4-7 without him. Hard to say he was the single reason. I don't think 2013 with a rookie EJ was ever going to be a playoff year. The LG play didn't get a lot better with Doug Legursky taking over in week 6. But it did improve a bit on Brown who was cut and never even signed to an NFL practice squad ever again. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He played the first 5 games, in which we went 2-3 with wins in the EJ game v the Panthers and the Kiko game v the Ravens  

 

We ended the season 6-10. So we were 4-7 without him. Hard to say he was the single reason. I don't think 2013 with a rookie EJ was ever going to be a playoff year. The LG play didn't get a lot better with Doug Legursky taking over in week 6. But it did improve a bit on Brown who was cut and never even signed to an NFL practice squad ever again. 

 

Well in retrospect most fans tend to view things very differently after they see a QB go bust...........but that new Marrone team came out of the gate firing........new systems were catching teams off guard.........they should have been 4-0..........but for one Colin Brown, IMO.

 

Getting out to a fast start changes everything for an upstart team.......see 2017.        Having Colin Brown starting was like what would have happened to the 2017 Bills had they dumped Marcell Dareus in camp.    The 2017 Bills were never the same team after that fast start that Dareus outstanding run defense helped them be..........they went from thinking home field in October to playing just one good game(in KC) the rest of the season and barely avoiding elimination at the hands of David Fales in Miami.   

 

Sometimes being utterly dreadful at one position........even one not associated with changing games.........can indeed undermine the whole show.    An average LG in tow.........2013 Bills go at least 9-7, IMO.    No Marcell Dareus........2017 Bills stumble out of the gate and finish far outside of playoff contention.    

[GunnerBill]

35 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Well in retrospect most fans tend to view things very differently after they see a QB go bust...........but that new Marrone team came out of the gate firing........new systems were catching teams off guard.........they should have been 4-0..........but for one Colin Brown, IMO.

 

Getting out to a fast start changes everything for an upstart team.......see 2017.        Having Colin Brown starting was like what would have happened to the 2017 Bills had they dumped Marcell Dareus in camp.    The 2017 Bills were never the same team after that fast start that Dareus outstanding run defense helped them be..........they went from thinking home field in October to playing just one good game(in KC) the rest of the season and barely avoiding elimination at the hands of David Fales in Miami.   

 

Sometimes being utterly dreadful at one position........even one not associated with changing games.........can indeed undermine the whole show.    An average LG in tow.........2013 Bills go at least 9-7, IMO.    No Marcell Dareus........2017 Bills stumble out of the gate and finish far outside of playoff contention.    

 

I disagree. I don't think that 2013 team was a playoff team. 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I disagree. I don't think that 2013 team was a playoff team. 

 

You don't have to think it, they weren't.

 

But do you think the 2017 team that got trampled twice by NE and had the worst point differential of any playoff team since the 1980's "was a playoff team".

 

Well, they were.   Somehow.

 

The 2013 team had a better PD and played NE a whole lot tougher..........I'd actually say both of Marrone's teams were better than that 2017 unit.