You don't draft a guard in the 1st ... or do you?

[Gugny]

12 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Oh, hey I certainly don't think they should have handled QB the way they did. But do you think that if they'd not done that with the linemen they'd instead have gotten a great team with the alternate picks?

 

I mean, I don't. But if you don't think so, I guess we can just agree to disagree.

 

 

 

 

Got no answer, hunh, bro?

 

It's utterly irrelevant and I pointed it out. 

 

 

 

You asked about drafting a guard in the first round.  My comment had literally everything to do with drafting an OL in the first round and you are calling it irrelevant.  I don't think that word means what you think it means.

[SoCal Deek]

With Ike and Bates both resigned…let’s move on to the next thread. CB or WR?

[Shaw66]

50 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

How they fit in the ranking of OLs is completely beside the point. Particularly whether any tackles and centers have gone or not.

 

Even how well they fit in with the other OGs doesn't matter. 

 

How they fit in with BPA, as determined by the Bills, that's what matters. It's about all that matters. If there are a few extra really good guys picked high (theoretically) it doesn't matter. Only how much the Bills like the OG that's next on their list compared to the other guys at other positions left on their list.

But although need doesn't affect the BPA judgment, position does.  BPA is, at least by one definition, who will make the biggest long-term impact on the team.   By reason of their positions, long snappers, punters, placekickers, tight ends and, yes, guards are rarely the BPA available, because their value above replacement rarely is very great.  In other words, you always can find someone who can fill those rolls for you.  

[nato7412]

Nope, we got Rick Bates 😎

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

I don’t now, maybe ask Ruben Brown.

[Rochesterfan]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

s

 

 

The 5th year extension is used irregularly, and for a good reason. For example, last year, 17 of the first 20 picks from 2017 got their option picked up. 

 

But of the last 12 picks of the round, only 5 did: Frank Ragnow (since extended), Isaiah Wynn, DJ Moore (since extended), Calvin Ridley and Lamar Jackson.

 

Out of them, Calvin Ridley sticks out as a guy the tea must want more time to make a decision.

 

But as for the four others, who else needs more time? Wynn, maybe? It's mostly a way to get a bit cheaper 5thyear. And that's nice, but not wildly important, especially at guard where you're not going to make a ton unless you're really good. 

 

This late in the round, it's much more important to get the BPA than to worry about how to situationally use the 5th year option.

 

It should always be something a good GM is thinking about when drafting in the 1st round.

 

Ideally you are doing what the Bills do which is pick BPA.  The problem is how people judge and think about BPA.  
 

BPA almost always must incorporate some type of positional bias based upon the premium paid to that position.

 

The best guard and the 6-8th best WR, 5th best CB, 3-4th best DE, 3rd best QB, 4th best Tackle might all end up equivalent as BPA because the replacement level play of guard is so minor.  
 

To me guard and RB have similar issues and there is little reason to grab either in round 1.  Both positions can be replaced easily with later round picks and even UDFA’s and therefore as you have said - that renders the 5th year option moot for those players - therefore wasting one of the biggest advantages of having the round 1 pick.

 

Again - if you get to that pick and Guard/IOL or RB is by far your best player - go ahead and take them, but if there is a premium position player left that is close - I 100% take that first.

 

Pre-draft - give me CB or WR all day long - day of we need to see the board to make the call.

 

 

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

My guess is that RD1 and RD2 from here on out will be high-dollar positions(DE, CB, WR), where we can get a rookie playing at that position and continue paying our own players like Josh and Diggs. Fill the lower value positions in the later rounds and FA.

[Kaenon]

I have us going A&M's Kenyon Green in Round 1

[Malazan]

not anymore...

[BADOLBILZ]

31 minutes ago, ControllerOfPlanetX said:

I don’t now, maybe ask Ruben Brown.

 

 

I was entirely for drafting Brown in round 1...........it was hardly debatable that he was the right pick and we knew he was going to be the pick..........the thing the Bills did wrong in that draft was NOT DRAFT ANOTHER guard soon after Brown.

 

But the NFL was so much different then.    The running game was still the more important aspect of offense to be good at and defenses were allowed to destroy QB's.  

 

Nobody lost MORE early round value with the 2010 rules changes than interior OL.   (Runnin' bax were already getting committee-ized prior to that)

[billybrew1]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

I've seen this several times lately, stated as a certainty.

 

And it's at best questionable.

 

In the old days, when we were drafting around 10th year after year, I used to say that we shouldn't draft a guard there unless we were getting a Hutchinson or a Zack Martin. But drafting 25th, you don't need to be getting a Quentin Nelson.

 

Though it wouldn't hurt.

 

Here's a list of OGs drafted in the 1st in the last ten drafts. And there's at least one in 8 out of the last 10 years.

 

I underlined the guys who were arguably drafted at OT but have since moved to OG. I included the draft slot.

 

 

2021  14 Vera-Tucker, 17 Alex Leatherwood

2020  none

2019  14 Chris Lindstrom, 23 Tytus Howard

2018  6 Quenton Nelson

2017  none

2016  28 Joshua Garnett

2015  5 Brandon Scherff, 9 Ereck Flowers, 13 Andrus Peat, 28 Laken Tomlinson

2014  16 Zack Martin

2013  7 Jonathan Cooper, 10 Chance Warmack, 11 DJ Fluker, 19 Justin Pugh, 20 Kyle Long

2012  24 David DeCastro, 27 Kevin Zeitler

 

 

There are a few real washouts there. But I'd argue not many. A lot of solid to very good players there. Perhaps because DOGs don't generally get teams so hot and bothered this early that they reach.

 

Lemme know if I missed any.

 

I'd argue that this makes a pretty decent argument that you do pick an OG in the 1st if he's good enough. Every pick is affected by whether you do good job picking the right guy. Same at every position, though. These percentages don't make me pessimistic about DOGs in the 1st, though. 

 

Especially when Josh's health is affected, it's a priority. They should consider it. I'm sure they are. It's certainly a legit option, if there's a guy they like there and if things fall right.

 

 

 

The Bills should definitely go BPA at 25. I really hope they do. Whether a G, DE, CB, WR or DT….the best damn player overall. Though…a RB probably messes things up… But we can give Allen (Saffold is here only a year) a G or WR though…..We should take the highest rated player….

I’d love to hear we extended Diggs to a very reasonable contract and that signing allows us to sign one more FA…. A good vet CB….

Make the Bills happy, Diggs happy and let’s us go into that draft able to tip-toe around taking BPA in every pick just about…..It would allow us to take the BPA and that’s beautiful. There’s going to be a good player at 25 at G, CB or WR….and we can take whichever one falls….Then, I would think we were truly the best team in the NFL….after that draft.

[Mr. WEO]

what?  hell no....

[Buffalo716]

This is a purely subjective question 

 

Not all drafts are created equal...

 

Some draft might have four or five guards with top 60 grades.. some might have one

 

If I was a GM I would consider an elite offensive guard at the end of the first round

Edited March 28, 2022 by Buffalo716

[Bill from NYC]

26 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Nobody lost MORE early round value with the 2010 rules changes than interior OL.   (Runnin' bax were already getting committee-ized prior to that)

This is beyound dispute. 

 

Years ago I would have looked at this roster and wanted the Bills to draft a guard at 25. Not today. The running game just doesn't mean as much.  I could name many guards who made a huge difference to the outcome of games and the overall quality of offensive play. Gene Upshaw, Larry Allen, John Hannah, Larry Little, and Steve Hutchinson  (who I desperately wanted the Bills to draft) to name just a few. I mean, how good was Larry Czonka when he went to the Giants and didn't have Little and Kuchenberg? The thing is, these guys are ancient history. The running game (no matter how much I enjoy it) is no longer that important. 

 

Btw, I would toss ILB into the mix of less important positions, even in college. I heard Saban say that some of the best players on his past teams were ILBs and that most of them probably would not start in today's game. I think ILBs are even less important in the NFL than in college. Jmo.

[BADOLBILZ]

6 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

This is beyound dispute. 

 

Years ago I would have looked at this roster and wanted the Bills to draft a guard at 25. Not today. The running game just doesn't mean as much.  I could name many guards who made a huge difference to the outcome of games and the overall quality of offensive play. Gene Upshaw, Larry Allen, John Hannah, Larry Little, and Steve Hutchinson  (who I desperately wanted the Bills to draft) to name just a few. I mean, how good was Larry Czonka when he went to the Giants and didn't have Little and Kuchenberg? The thing is, these guys are ancient history. The running game (no matter how much I enjoy it) is no longer that important. 

 

Btw, I would toss ILB into the mix of less important positions, even in college. I heard Saban say that some of the best players on his past teams were ILBs and that most of them probably would not start in today's game. I think ILBs are even less important in the NFL than in college. Jmo.

 

 

Yeah I can remember being thrilled when the Bills took Ruben Brown...........it was a huge relief.........it was so important to have good guard play in the mid-1990's...........the run almost always set up the pass in that NFL.........but also because most of the QB's were beat up and immobile by the time the game slowed down for them.

 

Josh Allen had some pretty raunchy OG play last season and he still dominated most games...........the Bills just need to get to average there first to start with and Bates/Morse/Saffold *might* do that........but long term they need to be better than that to preserve Allen.

 

I think this is a good draft to find a couple future starting IOL.........but I think most of us agree that it shouldn't happen in round 1.

[SoCal Deek]

Is it just me, or did I hear some good things about a punter from San Diego State?

[skibum]

Not this year, apparently, but you never know. It's kind of like taking a generational place kicker early - it's not a sexy pick, but having the best in the league at the position is a lasting luxury. A road-grader Guard can potentially help provide 12-15 years of stability for your superstar QB. 

Edited March 28, 2022 by skibum

[BADOLBILZ]

42 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

This is a purely subjective question 

 

Not all drafts are created equal...

 

Some draft might have four or five guards with top 60 grades.. some might have one

 

If I was a GM I would consider an elite offensive guard at the end of the first round

 

 

But from a scout's perspective..........the cash value of the player.......which is heavily position reliant..........doesn't matter on the board.

 

In reality it's a huge factor that greatly dictates your return on investment.

 

As @MrEpsYtown stated very well.........there are busts at every position.........but there is no boom when drafting IOL in round 1.

 

This is why executive types with virtually no scouting experience,  like Beane and Howie Roseman,  have GM jobs while the Gettleman's are being put out to pasture.

 

I don't love all of Beane's work but I have liked round 1 every time.........I'd hope he would never go guard or center in round 1...........you can buy adequate versions of those players pretty cheap in UFA or develop them yourself and win big.

 

"Adequate" edge/island/QB players get you beat and cost you a fortune in UFA if they even make it there. 

 

[SoTier]

4 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

Too Shay.

 

My wording was lazy.  I just don't think taking the 3rd, 4th or 5th best OL that early is smart.  I'm guessing by the time our turn comes up, the top 4-5 best OL will be gone.

 

Not all OL positions are created equal.  OTs tend to go high in the draft because they have significantly more demanding skill sets and physical requirements than do guards and centers.    Many highly drafted OTs who fail as OTs become decent OGs.  It's common for OTs to be drafted in the top half of the first round.  Jake Long was drafted #1 overall in 2008 by the Fins.   OTOH, it's not uncommon for the best OGs or Cs in the draft -- often guys destined to become Pro Bowlers/All Pros -- to fall to the bottom third of the first round.

 

4 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I mean even going back Wood, Levitre were good. Peters was an all pro. Cordy Glenn was good. John Miller, Ford, Cyrus Kouandjio all terrible. Recently it has been better. 

 

But, good or bad, it never got us anywhere. There just isn't enough upside in drafting solid meh players. 

 

 

The Bills'  drought wasn't the result of mediocre drafting.  It was primarily the result of maximizing profits at the expense of winning.  After Polian left and the salary cap was instituted, the Bills seldom re-signed their own top players.  They didn't get anywhere because they kept second rate talents while allowing All Pros and Pro Bowlers like Antoine Winfield, Ruben Brown, Jason Peters, Marshawn Lynch and Stephon Gilmore all leave.   They hired mediocre HCs and frequently less than mediocre assistants.  That philosophy of winning football games being relegated to a poor second to profits didn't end until Russ Brandon was fired in 2018 and Beane and McDermott gained the power to run the team with winning as a priority.

 

 

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Thurm -

 

First, thanks for starting this.   I've been wondering about it.   As I've thought more about it, I think the answer is no, you don't draft a guard in the first round.  

 

Someone said something in a post that made me want to see a more thorough discussion.  He said you don't do it because of the option year on a first round pick.  You have to write a big check for that year, and it isn't likely the guy is going to be worth it.   So, you don't exercise the option, and then it's likely the guy walks after four years.  If you think about it, you'd much rather be one of the teams bidding for the guy when he comes off his rookie contract.   That's where you can get good value. 

 

In a sense, drafting a guard in the first round is like, but a little more reasonable, drafting a punter or a long snapper in the first round.  Closer call, but the same concept.   You can fill all three positions adequately in free agency.  At guard, Bills have been doing it for years, and although they haven't had read studs, they've gotten by.  Now they got a serious upgrade in Saffold, and Boettger is back on board, so the Bills are at least okay.  

 

The philosophy is get your long-term guys in the draft, but that doesn't mean the first round.   A second-round guard is just as good a gamble as a late first-round guard, but doesn't come with the same fifth-year price-tag.  

 

Compare it to a late-first round corner back like, say, Tre White.  You're willing to exercise a fifth round option on that guy, if he works out, because the position is important enough.  Same with a linebacker, an offensive tackle, and probably any d-lineman.  

 

I think for the same reason, you're reluctant to take a first-round running back.  

 

 

 

 

The Indianapolis Colts drafted guard Quentin Nelson with the #6 overall pick a few drafts ago.  He's a generational talent.  Nick Mangold and Maurkise Pouncey, both All Pro centers, were taken late in the first round.  Dave DeCastro has been and is an All Pro/Pro Bowl with the Steelers for his entire career.  

 

You don't draft "decent" players in the first round to fill holes.  You draft players whom you think can be great players at their positions, including interior OL, even if their need isn't urgent.

 

1 hour ago, ControllerOfPlanetX said:

I don’t now, maybe ask Ruben Brown.

 

After the Bills cut Brown because they claimed he was "washed up", he went on to the Bears where he played for several years.  He was named to the Pro Bowl in 2006 when the Bears last made the Super Bowl.

 

10 minutes ago, skibum said:

Not this year, apparently, but you never know. It's kind of like taking a generational place kicker early - it's not a sexy pick, but having the best in the league at the position is a lasting luxury. A road-grader Guard can potentially help provide 12-15 years of stability for your superstar QB. 

 

Exactly this.  Before  Dave DeCastro was guarding Roethlisberger, Alan Faneca, another late first rounder by Pitt, guarded Kordell Stewart, Tommy Maddox, and Ben Roethlisberger.  A top quality guard is a worthwhile investment in providing for the longevity of a superstar QB.

[Buffalo716]

58 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

But from a scout's perspective..........the cash value of the player.......which is heavily position reliant..........doesn't matter on the board.

 

In reality it's a huge factor that greatly dictates your return on investment.

 

As @MrEpsYtown stated very well.........there are busts at every position.........but there is no boom when drafting IOL in round 1.

 

This is why executive types with virtually no scouting experience,  like Beane and Howie Roseman,  have GM jobs while the Gettleman's are being put out to pasture.

 

I don't love all of Beane's work but I have liked round 1 every time.........I'd hope he would never go guard or center in round 1...........you can buy adequate versions of those players pretty cheap in UFA or develop them yourself and win big.

 

"Adequate" edge/island/QB players get you beat and cost you a fortune in UFA if they even make it there. 

 

I don't think I ever said I want the bills to draft a guard in the first round

 

I said depending on a drafts strengths or weaknesses, I would potentially draft a guard at the end of the first round if I was a GM.. 

 

If I had a quarterback, and had spent a lot on edge and corner.. and there was an elite guard at the end of the first round I would consider it... And I'm not even talking this draft particular I'm just saying overall

 

I had somebody like Zach Martin as a top five player in his class..  Q. Nelson the number one player in his class.. if I was a GM of a pretty good team.. I would consider that in the 20s

Edited March 28, 2022 by Buffalo716