You don't draft a guard in the 1st ... or do you?

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

The Indianapolis Colts drafted guard Quentin Nelson with the #6 overall pick a few drafts ago.  He's a generational talent.  Nick Mangold and Maurkise Pouncey, both All Pro centers, were taken late in the first round.  Dave DeCastro has been and is an All Pro/Pro Bowl with the Steelers for his entire career.  

 

You don't draft "decent" players in the first round to fill holes.  You draft players whom you think can be great players at their positions, including interior OL, even if their need isn't urgent.

 

 

 

Yeah, I agree with that.  But at 25, or at any place Buffalo could reasonably trade up to, you're not finding a generational guard.    Beyond #5 or in a really good year, #10 or #12, you're just talking about good football players.   So if there's a general talent at guard this season, the Bills aren't getting him.   

 

And what I said still holds.  If you aren't taking a generational talent, taking a really good guard is like taking a really good long-snapper.   Guard just isn't a position that you look to fill with an All-Star.   Might you one day?  Yes, if the stars align.   But you're not looking for guards in the first round.   You just fill in your guard spots as you can.  

 

And, by the way, once in a while you get a guy in the second or third round who turns out to be a great talent and you have him for a long time.  

[Big Blitz]

I'm beginning to lean all WR.

 

You can't really cover in this league anymore anyway and I just saw Jalen Ramsey get torched in the SB and if not for future Hall of Famer Quinton Spain's look out block on the last play of the game, he would have become a permanent meme as Chase sprints to the end zone.  

 

 

Don't get me wrong - we need CBs.  But I'll take serviceable right now. 

 

And you know this weather in Buffalo...........advantage us.    

[BigAl2526]

Never say never, but it's not going to happen too often, and I wouldn't be inclined to do so this year, If I were Brandon Beane.  He's paying Bates starter money now, if not high end starter money, and Roger Saffold didn't sign with the Bills to warm the bench.  That means they guy you draft is likely at best competition to start rather than an assumed front line player.  

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

I don't think I ever said I want the bills to draft a guard in the first round

 

I said depending on a drafts strengths or weaknesses, I would potentially draft a guard at the end of the first round if I was a GM.. 

 

If I had a quarterback, and had spent a lot on edge and corner.. and there was an elite guard at the end of the first round I would consider it... And I'm not even talking this draft particular I'm just saying overall

 

I had somebody like Zach Martin as a top five player in his class..  Q. Nelson the number one player in his class.. if I was a GM of a pretty good team.. I would consider that in the 20s

 

 

Zach Martin was definitely a top 5 player in that class, IMO.   So was the safety from Louisville (who became a total bust).    But I wouldn't have taken either in round 1 because you gotta' treat that 1st round pick like it's a $20M-$30M free agent signing.    That's what that chip should be worth to you.......and no guard or safety or RB or MLB is ever worth that kind of scratch.   If you can't find a player worth that much then trade for an established stud or trade out.   

 

One of my least favorite Bills drafts was 2009......and not because they took a big swing on Maybin and missed.......but because it was doomed to fail before any of them saw the field.  Eric Wood, Andy Levitre and Jairus Byrd......3 players at non-premium positions........were all selected within 30 picks between late first and second rounds.   Anyone with common sense about how the cap worked KNEW right then and there that they would be able to easily justify not giving those guys a second contract.    Said it then.........and sure enough two of the three didn't get re-upped despite playing at legit Pro Bowl and All Pro levels.

 

High picks are for players at positions you will feel compelled not to lose when they perform at a high level.    

[4BillsintheBurgh]

I would like the guy who is going to help us win next year. I don't want to split hairs about it, get the best guy to help us win next year.

[BringMetheHeadofLeonLett]

First round on interior offensive line to me means they make those around them better.   Attitude, athleticism, smarts/qb of the OL, whatever they bring, they have to elevate the line as a whole to spend a first on them.  

Beyond that I'm looking at a lower round and relying on coaching to make a cohesive unit. 

[SoTier]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Zach Martin was definitely a top 5 player in that class, IMO.   So was the safety from Louisville (who became a total bust).    But I wouldn't have taken either in round 1 because you gotta' treat that 1st round pick like it's a $20M-$30M free agent signing.    That's what that chip should be worth to you.......and no guard or safety or RB or MLB is ever worth that kind of scratch.   If you can't find a player worth that much then trade for an established stud or trade out.   

 

One of my least favorite Bills drafts was 2009......and not because they took a big swing on Maybin and missed.......but because it was doomed to fail before any of them saw the field.  Eric Wood, Andy Levitre and Jairus Byrd......3 players at non-premium positions........were all selected within 30 picks between late first and second rounds.   Anyone with common sense about how the cap worked KNEW right then and there that they would be able to easily justify not giving those guys a second contract.    Said it then.........and sure enough two of the three didn't get re-upped despite playing at legit Pro Bowl and All Pro levels.

 

High picks are for players at positions you will feel compelled not to lose when they perform at a high level.    

 

That might be a reasonable philosophy when a team is selecting in the top third of the first round.   It's not reasonable for the bottom third of the first round where the remaining prospects at the more "valuable" positions can be significantly less impressive at their positions than the prospects available at supposedly less "valuable" positions.   A Pro Bowl quality guard or center is worth a whole lot more than a mediocre or bust OT or WR or DT.

 

That you hate the 2009 draft because the Bills "wasted" a late first round and two second round picks on a center, guard, and safety but don't have a problem with the Bills wasting the #9 pick on a bust DE is disingenuous because that draft is the perfect example of what happens when your philosophy meets reality.  FTR, the Bills drafted Maybin, an undersized DE with a questionable collegiate resume, over LBs like Brian Orapko and Clay Mathews who were both excellent collegiate players.  Wood, Levitre and Byrd were infinitely more valuable than Aaron Maybin because they were solid NFL players for several years while Maybin started exactly 1 game in 4 seasons.

[Big Turk]

Here is the issue...a guard is not going to win you a Super Bowl as a first round impact player.  A WR, DE, CB or QB could.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

That might be a reasonable philosophy when a team is selecting in the top third of the first round.   It's not reasonable for the bottom third of the first round where the remaining prospects at the more "valuable" positions can be significantly less impressive at their positions than the prospects available at supposedly less "valuable" positions.   A Pro Bowl quality guard or center is worth a whole lot more than a mediocre or bust OT or WR or DT.

 

That you hate the 2009 draft because the Bills "wasted" a late first round and two second round picks on a center, guard, and safety but don't have a problem with the Bills wasting the #9 pick on a bust DE is disingenuous because that draft is the perfect example of what happens when your philosophy meets reality.  FTR, the Bills drafted Maybin, an undersized DE with a questionable collegiate resume, over LBs like Brian Orapko and Clay Mathews who were both excellent collegiate players.  Wood, Levitre and Byrd were infinitely more valuable than Aaron Maybin because they were solid NFL players for several years while Maybin started exactly 1 game in 4 seasons.

 

 

It's not only a reasonable philosophy,  it's the way it should be done and there isn't an imaginary line in the middle of round 1 that changes that.

   

Frankly, the objective in round 2 should STILL be to try to come away with a potential PassRush1/CB1/WR1/LT1...........aiming for players at positions of low ceiling impact even in the 60's is questionable form.    You have to look at those early picks like they have a very high dollar value on them.

 

I've been saying this on TSW about the 1st round in particular for close to 2 decades and the NFL is now very much doing this.    It's to the point where it's not really a secret anymore.   Positional value......and therefore cash value of that position.......is incredibly important.  Round 1 is for acquiring talent at the big $ positions that you can't expect to acquire in UFA.  

 

I've also said since then that the draft is an ongoing process of team building..........not just an annual event.    When you view each draft as the latter you open yourself up to the mistake of thinking "this time" we can draft to patch holes.    And you don't just take a year off from that process just because you don't have a glaring need on your roster.........that's how you end up with Clyde Edwards Helaire.......and then have a holes at multiple big $ positions two seasons later.

 

Needs change FAST........need should weigh FAR LESS into the equation than the importance of position does.   

 

[Brandon]

I wouldnt take an OG in the top 10-15,  but otherwise, I don't necessarily have a huge issue with using a later 1st round pick if a good guard would make the most improvement to the overall team.  That's true also of the other 'lower value' positions...RB, C, TE, LB and safeties. 

[NewEra]

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Zach Martin was definitely a top 5 player in that class, IMO.   So was the safety from Louisville (who became a total bust).    But I wouldn't have taken either in round 1 because you gotta' treat that 1st round pick like it's a $20M-$30M free agent signing.    That's what that chip should be worth to you.......and no guard or safety or RB or MLB is ever worth that kind of scratch.   If you can't find a player worth that much then trade for an established stud or trade out.   

 

One of my least favorite Bills drafts was 2009......and not because they took a big swing on Maybin and missed.......but because it was doomed to fail before any of them saw the field.  Eric Wood, Andy Levitre and Jairus Byrd......3 players at non-premium positions........were all selected within 30 picks between late first and second rounds.   Anyone with common sense about how the cap worked KNEW right then and there that they would be able to easily justify not giving those guys a second contract.    Said it then.........and sure enough two of the three didn't get re-upped despite playing at legit Pro Bowl and All Pro levels.

 

High picks are for players at positions you will feel compelled not to lose when they perform at a high level.    

A Calvin Pryor reference!!  Man….talk about a fall from grace!

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

12 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:

Never say never, but it's not going to happen too often, and I wouldn't be inclined to do so this year, If I were Brandon Beane.  He's paying Bates starter money now, if not high end starter money, and Roger Saffold didn't sign with the Bills to warm the bench.  That means they guy you draft is likely at best competition to start rather than an assumed front line player.  

 

Paycheck shouldn't guarantee you a spot.  Especially if you have 4 NFL starts under your belt at LG not RG.  I don't think they need to address the position in the first, but i wouldn't be totally shocked if they did.  Maybe a 2nd or 3rd or whatever - but whomever they bring in should be in competition with bates at RG for sure.  I'd like to see another tackle drafted as well. 

 

The depth needs at MLB, OT, OG shouldn't be ignored.  We no longer have Klein, feliciano, williams and so far replaced them with Saffold.  An injury to Milano or Edmunds pushes Dodson and Lee into the lineup.  An injury to brown pushes doyle in.  etc.  

[BigAl2526]

2 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

Paycheck shouldn't guarantee you a spot.  Especially if you have 4 NFL starts under your belt at LG not RG.  I don't think they need to address the position in the first, but i wouldn't be totally shocked if they did.  Maybe a 2nd or 3rd or whatever - but whomever they bring in should be in competition with bates at RG for sure.  I'd like to see another tackle drafted as well. 

 

The depth needs at MLB, OT, OG shouldn't be ignored.  We no longer have Klein, feliciano, williams and so far replaced them with Saffold.  An injury to Milano or Edmunds pushes Dodson and Lee into the lineup.  An injury to brown pushes doyle in.  etc.  

No, you don't guarantee a guy is going to start, but at the same time, Buffalo didn't match Minnesota's offer because they think Bates is an OK backup.  They think he has starter ability, and he showed it on the field last season.  That thinking will reflect in their draft strategy.  I fully expect Buffalo to draft a guard/center prospect, most likely on day 2 of the draft, but the signing of Ryan Bates makes it significantly less likely in round 1.

Edited March 29, 2022 by BigAl2526

[Niagara Bill]

In 2022, instant starter status is essential to be a top team when selecting in the draft. No more 3 years to get ready. Because of huge contracts to QB  WR DE, you need the 4 or 5 years of control of a starter to survive.

If the guard can start by game 6 or 8...you have to do it.

[wppete]

23 hours ago, Turbo44 said:

nope unless he's a guard like the Colts drafted in the 1st (right before we drafted Josh) - can't remember his name. There are no guards like that in this draft, certainly not at 25.  my picks:

rd 1:  CB or WR

rd 2:  CB or wr (Whichever you didn't pick in rd 1)

rd 3:  Guard (or Tackle who projects as a guard)

rd 4:  CB or WR

rd 5:  CB or WR, whichever you didn't choose in rd 5 

3 picks in rds 6 and 7:  Bets player available, one should be a punter

🏆 

[Patrick Duffy]

Some teams do and some don't. Depends on circumstances of course....

 

As for Bills I highly doubt they go G in the 1st, as of now if nothing changes, all signs would lead me to believe they go either WR or CB in the 1st. Anything can happen, but with the WR class said to be a good, deep class this year may have them thinking CB with the 1st and WR with 2nd. That's assuming as of now if nothing changes and/or moving around in the draft.

 

imo if they pick a G it likely will be no earlier than 3rd round

 

 

Edited March 29, 2022 by Sheneneh Jenkins

[BearNorth]

23 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Excellent post. Too many of these threads have the Bills drafting in a vacuum. There'll only be so many realistic OL, CBs and WRs available at 25 when they get to the podium. Your list is the only list that matters. (Whenever I look at league-wide Mock Drafts, I immediately look at the next five picks AFTER the Bills to see who they passed on. It really makes no difference who was picked ahead of them.)

And the cost to move up a few picks is not usually that high where the Bills are drafting.  Each first round spot you move around pick 25 is basically a 5th round pick.  London is a California guy like JA17.  Also played guard for the Trojans, so suspect he has great quickness.

[Simon Says]

On 3/28/2022 at 11:52 AM, Thurman#1 said:

I've seen this several times lately, stated as a certainty.

 

And it's at best questionable.

 

In the old days, when we were drafting around 10th year after year, I used to say that we shouldn't draft a guard there unless we were getting a Hutchinson or a Zack Martin. But drafting 25th, you don't need to be getting a Quentin Nelson.

 

Though it wouldn't hurt.

 

Here's a list of OGs drafted in the 1st in the last ten drafts. And there's at least one in 8 out of the last 10 years.

 

I underlined the guys who were arguably drafted at OT but have since moved to OG. I included the draft slot.

 

 

2021  14 Vera-Tucker, 17 Alex Leatherwood

2020  none

2019  14 Chris Lindstrom, 23 Tytus Howard

2018  6 Quenton Nelson

2017  none

2016  28 Joshua Garnett

2015  5 Brandon Scherff, 9 Ereck Flowers, 13 Andrus Peat, 28 Laken Tomlinson

2014  16 Zack Martin

2013  7 Jonathan Cooper, 10 Chance Warmack, 11 DJ Fluker, 19 Justin Pugh, 20 Kyle Long

2012  24 David DeCastro, 27 Kevin Zeitler

 

 

There are a few real washouts there. But I'd argue not many. A lot of solid to very good players there. Perhaps because DOGs don't generally get teams so hot and bothered this early that they reach.

 

Lemme know if I missed any.

 

I'd argue that this makes a pretty decent argument that you do pick an OG in the 1st if he's good enough. Every pick is affected by whether you do good job picking the right guy. Same at every position, though. These percentages don't make me pessimistic about DOGs in the 1st, though. 

 

Especially when Josh's health is affected, it's a priority. They should consider it. I'm sure they are. It's certainly a legit option, if there's a guy they like there and if things fall right.

 

 

 

Well, you can make the same argument for ANY position if he is " good enough". This year I don't see the Bills draftinstart immediately.

My philosophy is that ,unless its a QB, your 1st round pick should be able to start immediately.

Bills have a number of Guards with starting experience; Saffold,Bates,Boettger, Ford... 

I don't have a problem drafting a guard at 25,but not this year.

Edited March 29, 2022 by Georgie
Spelling

[Simon Says]

On 3/28/2022 at 12:14 PM, Turbo44 said:

nope unless he's a guard like the Colts drafted in the 1st (right before we drafted Josh) - can't remember his name. There are no guards like that in this draft, certainly not at 25.  my picks:

rd 1:  CB or WR

rd 2:  CB or wr (Whichever you didn't pick in rd 1)

rd 3:  Guard (or Tackle who projects as a guard)

rd 4:  CB or WR

rd 5:  CB or WR, whichever you didn't choose in rd 5 

3 picks in rds 6 and 7:  Bets player available, one should be a punter

2 corners and 2 receivers seems excessive, to say the least. Got to consider RB,LB S,Edge 

[Turbo44]

42 minutes ago, Georgie said:

2 corners and 2 receivers seems excessive, to say the least. Got to consider RB,LB S,Edge 

2 WRs may be excessive, but 2 CB's isn't.  we typically only play 2 LB's, so any that you draft is mostly for ST, We have two top safeties already, have 10 DT/DEs that we probably keep on the team, and a how's a RB getting any PT behind the 3 guys we have (unless it's a 1st round pick).