You don't draft a guard in the 1st ... or do you?

[Thurman#1]

I've seen this several times lately, stated as a certainty.

 

And it's at best questionable.

 

In the old days, when we were drafting around 10th year after year, I used to say that we shouldn't draft a guard there unless we were getting a Hutchinson or a Zack Martin. But drafting 25th, you don't need to be getting a Quentin Nelson.

 

Though it wouldn't hurt.

 

Here's a list of OGs drafted in the 1st in the last ten drafts. And there's at least one in 8 out of the last 10 years.

 

I underlined the guys who were arguably drafted at OT but have since moved to OG. I included the draft slot.

 

 

2021  14 Vera-Tucker, 17 Alex Leatherwood

2020  none

2019  14 Chris Lindstrom, 23 Tytus Howard

2018  6 Quenton Nelson

2017  none

2016  28 Joshua Garnett

2015  5 Brandon Scherff, 9 Ereck Flowers, 13 Andrus Peat, 28 Laken Tomlinson

2014  16 Zack Martin

2013  7 Jonathan Cooper, 10 Chance Warmack, 11 DJ Fluker, 19 Justin Pugh, 20 Kyle Long

2012  24 David DeCastro, 27 Kevin Zeitler

 

 

There are a few real washouts there. But I'd argue not many. A lot of solid to very good players there. Perhaps because DOGs don't generally get teams so hot and bothered this early that they reach.

 

Lemme know if I missed any.

 

I'd argue that this makes a pretty decent argument that you do pick an OG in the 1st if he's good enough. Every pick is affected by whether you do good job picking the right guy. Same at every position, though. These percentages don't make me pessimistic about DOGs in the 1st, though. 

 

Especially when Josh's health is affected, it's a priority. They should consider it. I'm sure they are. It's certainly a legit option, if there's a guy they like there and if things fall right.

 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Turbo44]

nope unless he's a guard like the Colts drafted in the 1st (right before we drafted Josh) - can't remember his name. There are no guards like that in this draft, certainly not at 25.  my picks:

rd 1:  CB or WR

rd 2:  CB or wr (Whichever you didn't pick in rd 1)

rd 3:  Guard (or Tackle who projects as a guard)

rd 4:  CB or WR

rd 5:  CB or WR, whichever you didn't choose in rd 5 

3 picks in rds 6 and 7:  Bets player available, one should be a punter

[Max Fischer]

At #25, you don't get to be picky. Many "experts" believe it's rare there are 32 "first round worthy" players, especially this year.  Normally, from about 25 to 32, the "rules" seem to be different. For the Bills, it probably comes down to whether the "top" CBs and WRs are on the board, and if not, take the best offensive lineman.  However, if the Bills believe the OL is far ahead of a CB and WR, then go ahead and take Zion Johnson, I mean, whoever they really like. 

[BuffaloBill]

1 minute ago, Max Fischer said:

At #25, you don't get to be picky. Many "experts" believe it's rare there are 32 "first round worthy" players, especially this year.  Normally, from about 25 to 32, the "rules" seem to be different. For the Bills, it probably comes down to whether the "top" CBs and WRs are on the board, and if not, take the best offensive lineman.  However, if the Bills believe the OL is far ahead of a CB and WR, then go ahead and take Zion Johnson, I mean, whoever they really like. 

 

 

This ^^^ though I would tend to believe the Bills evaluation process will give more “weight” to CB prospects.  I’ve said in other threads I would not be shocked if the Bills pick an IOL at #25. 

[Max Fischer]

2 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

nope unless he's a guard like the Colts drafted in the 1st (right before we drafted Josh) - can't remember his name. There are no guards like that in this draft, certainly not at 25.  my picks:

rd 1:  CB or WR

rd 2:  CB or wr (Whichever you didn't pick in rd 1)

rd 3:  Guard (or Tackle who projects as a guard)

rd 4:  CB or WR

rd 5:  CB or WR, whichever you didn't choose in rd 5 

3 picks in rds 6 and 7:  Bets player available, one should be a punter

 

You cannot rule out a potentially excellent starting lineman for a CB or WR you don't believe has first round value.  It's very probable that ALL of the first round worthy CBs and WRs are gone by 25. If so, it would be hard to pass up a starting OL that could help the offense cook. 

[Max Fischer]

1 minute ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

This ^^^ though I would tend to believe the Bills evaluation process will give more “weight” to CB prospects.  I’ve said in other threads I would not be shocked if the Bills pick an IOL at #25. 

 

I think it's logical to give a bit more "weight" to a position of extreme need. If it's close, I think if the Bills select a CB, no matter how much I like someone like Zion Johnson cementing a potentially outstanding OL. My standards for WR are a bit higher, as I believe that a receiver needs to be good enough to become a starting slot or WR2 with Diggs possibly moving to slot (see Jameson Williams).

 

[BADOLBILZ]

20 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

I've seen this several times lately, stated as a certainty.

 

And it's at best questionable.

 

In the old days, when we were drafting around 10th year after year, I used to say that we shouldn't draft a guard there unless we were getting a Hutchinson or a Zack Martin. But drafting 25th, you don't need to be getting a Quentin Nelson.

 

Though it wouldn't hurt.

 

Here's a list of OGs drafted in the 1st in the last ten drafts. And there's at least one in 8 out of the last 10 years.

 

I underlined the guys who were arguably drafted at OT but have since moved to OG. I included the draft slot.

 

 

2021  14 Vera-Tucker, Alex Leatherwood

2020  none

2019  14 Chris Lindstrom, 23 Tytus Howard

2018  6 Quenton Nelson

2017  none

2016  28 Joshua Garnett

2015  5 Brandon Scherff, 9 Ereck Flowers, 13 Andrus Peat, 28 Laken Tomlinson

2014  16 Zack Martin

2013  7 Jonathan Cooper, 10 Chance Warmack, 11, DJ Fluker, 19 Justin Pugh,20 Kyle Long

2012  24 David DeCastro, 27 Kevin Zeitler

 

 

There are a few real washouts there. But I'd argue not many. A lot of solid to very good players there. Perhaps because DOGs don't generally get teams so hot and bothered this early that they reach.

 

Lemme know if I missed any.

 

I'd argue that this makes a pretty decent argument that you do pick an OG in the 1st if he's good enough. Every pick is affected by whether you do good job picking the right guy. Same at every position, though. These percentages don't make me pessimistic about DOGs in the 1st, though. 

 

Especially when Josh's health is affected, it's a priority. They should consider it. I'm sure they are. It's certainly a legit option, if there's a guy they like there and if things fall right.

 

 

 

 

 

First......at least 5 of those guys were drafted to play tackle but ended up at guard after they failed horribly outside.........Leatherwood being the most recent............very few players ever get selected strictly to play inside in round 1.

 

And top interior OL often end up hitting free agency because its hard to justify paying them and because SMART teams fill their key positions in the draft and bad teams will always panic and overpay for interior OL in free agency.    Drafting interior OL early is just bad strategy and sets you up to be a farm team for others to steal from.  

 

The "can't go broke making a profit" mindset in the early part of the draft........picking the low hanging fruit at IOL and Running Back for instance........is how you end up without enough difference makers.  

 

 It's a matchup league.........which is why edge/island players make the big bucks.......they GET the one-on-one opportunities to change games..........those are the positions you draft early.

 

 

 

[Nextmanup]

The way things have unfolded thus far, I would like to see us take a CB with the first pick, not a Guard.

 

Although the OL should still remain a priority moving forward. 

 

 

[MWK]

I'd do it if we don't get a vet. Daryl Williams, Ereck Flowers, Will Hernandez, Trai Turner, and Kyle Long are all still out there, so it wouldn't shock me if we brought one of them in. Can JC Tretter play guard? Guess we have to wait and see what happens with Bates. 

Edited March 28, 2022 by MWK

[NewEra]

Good discussion topic.

 

Imo, it depends on the players available.  
Looking at this draft class, I feel we should take one of the top 6 WRs or CBs if they fall to us. 
 

If they’re all gone (which is doubtful imo) I’d rather trade down a few spots.  If we can’t move, I’m fine taking Zion Johnson.  Joe Marino has us taking Tyler Smith.  Not sure if I’d be ok with that, but he’s a mauler with attitude and could be a nice piece.   It seems like Morse is planning on playing at least 2 more years, so Linderbaum wouldn’t be a fit.   
 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

You don't. And the names on the list prove it.

 

Vera-Tucker, Chris Lindstrom are very good. Their teams still blow. 

 

Quentin Nelson is a generational first ballot hall of fame player drafted in the top 5. As good as he is, the team can't win consistently. You think the Colts would rather have, say Josh Allen instead?

 

Zach Martin started really good and has been meh the last few years. Team still can't win in the playoffs. 

 

DeCastro was a solid player for a short career, but was never amazing. And Zetler has had a good career. His teams never won anything. But in context, when you look at some of the players they passed on that year, Lavonte David, Harrison Smith, and Bobby Wagner...It wasn't the right move. Kelechi Osemele was better than both of those guys and went in round 2. Brandon Brooks, probably one of the best in the league went in round three. 

 

Garnett was a bust.

 

Alex Leatherwood was an overdraft who was the weakest link on his team. 

 

Tytus Howard was a bust who was drafted as a LT and moved to guard. He was so bad the Texans mortgaged their future to replace him with Tunsil. 

 

Peat is terrible and was drafted as a tackle. Flowers and Tomlinson have moved from team to team a number of times. Flowers was drafted as a LT and a huge bust. Tomlinson has been ok. Just signed with his third team.  

 

Many the guys on the list were very bad decisions and 2013 is exhibit A why you never do it. Pugh is the only one still starting in the league. He was drafted as  LT was considered a bust. Saved his career by moving to guard. Kyle Long was ok for a short period. 

 

Then look at the highest paid guards in the league: 

Scherff was drafted as a tackle who moved to guard. He has been excellent, but his team never won anything. 

Joe Bitonio was a second round pick, drafted as a LT who moved to guard. Team has never won anything. 

Joe Thuney was a third round pick. 

Wyatt Teller obviously 5th round and traded by his original team. Team has never won anything. 

 

PFF loves Michael Onwenu who went in the sixth round. 

 

It is the easiest position to fill. teams regret when the spent high draft picks on this position. 

Edited March 28, 2022 by MrEpsYtown

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, MWK said:

I'd do it if we don't get a vet. Daryl Williams, Ereck Flowers, Will Hernandez, Trai Turner, and Kyle Long are all still out there, so it wouldn't shock me if we brought one of them in. Can JC Tretter play guard? Guess we have to wait and see what happens with Bates. 

Hernandez is reportedly close to signing with AZ

[ganesh]

25 minutes ago, Max Fischer said:

At #25, you don't get to be picky. Many "experts" believe it's rare there are 32 "first round worthy" players, especially this year.  Normally, from about 25 to 32, the "rules" seem to be different. For the Bills, it probably comes down to whether the "top" CBs and WRs are on the board, and if not, take the best offensive lineman.  However, if the Bills believe the OL is far ahead of a CB and WR, then go ahead and take Zion Johnson, I mean, whoever they really like. 

Or trade down by 10 picks and get an additional 3rd rounder and still pick one of your top of the board CB, WR or OG that will still be present.

[GunnerBill]

So there are three guys there I'd have argued at the time that you do draft in the 1st - Quenten Nelson, Zack Martin and Brandon Scherff. I had a 1st on AVT too (jury still out).

 

There is then two guys in Lindstrom and Peat who have been good players but you have to consider the opportunity cost of the players they passed on too. 

 

Then there are the busts - Flowers, basically everyone except Kyle Long from the '13 class, Garnett, Howard. Plus potentially Leatherwood 

 

And then there are the late 1sts - Tomlinson, DeCastro, Zeitler and the question with them - which I think is what @Thurman#1 is more getting at - is if they are BPA late in round one when the top tier guys at the premium positions are gone are they worth it? 

 

Personally my answer is still, no. But if you told me that the top 4 tackles, the top 3 corners and the top 5 receivers were all gone by #25 then I wouldn't hate it Kenyon Green or Zion Johnson. It still wouldn't be my preference, I'd rather go Kyler Gordon in that situation or even Jahan Dotson or Christian Watson. But I can at least see the logic there. Wouldn't be my preference though.

[Rochesterfan]

52 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

I've seen this several times lately, stated as a certainty.

 

And it's at best questionable.

 

In the old days, when we were drafting around 10th year after year, I used to say that we shouldn't draft a guard there unless we were getting a Hutchinson or a Zack Martin. But drafting 25th, you don't need to be getting a Quentin Nelson.

 

Though it wouldn't hurt.

 

Here's a list of OGs drafted in the 1st in the last ten drafts. And there's at least one in 8 out of the last 10 years.

 

I underlined the guys who were arguably drafted at OT but have since moved to OG. I included the draft slot.

 

 

2021  14 Vera-Tucker, Alex Leatherwood

2020  none

2019  14 Chris Lindstrom, 23 Tytus Howard

2018  6 Quenton Nelson

2017  none

2016  28 Joshua Garnett

2015  5 Brandon Scherff, 9 Ereck Flowers, 13 Andrus Peat, 28 Laken Tomlinson

2014  16 Zack Martin

2013  7 Jonathan Cooper, 10 Chance Warmack, 11, DJ Fluker, 19 Justin Pugh,20 Kyle Long

2012  24 David DeCastro, 27 Kevin Zeitler

 

 

There are a few real washouts there. But I'd argue not many. A lot of solid to very good players there. Perhaps because DOGs don't generally get teams so hot and bothered this early that they reach.

 

Lemme know if I missed any.

 

I'd argue that this makes a pretty decent argument that you do pick an OG in the 1st if he's good enough. Every pick is affected by whether you do good job picking the right guy. Same at every position, though. These percentages don't make me pessimistic about DOGs in the 1st, though. 

 

Especially when Josh's health is affected, it's a priority. They should consider it. I'm sure they are. It's certainly a legit option, if there's a guy they like there and if things fall right.

 

 

 

 

 

I don’t disagree and a good guard late in the first is ok, but you still struggle with the 5th year option piece.  

 

I believe the 5th year option is not position specific on the OL - so you are not paying him a 5th year option as a guard, but it includes Tackles salaries in the mix.

 

I would still pick a guard over a RB in the first, but it is not a premium position and this makes it harder on a borderline guy to pick up the option for a last chance.

 

 

[BearNorth]

Sporting news has this guy ranked 23rd, which is close to where we draft: 

 

23. Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M (6-4, 323 pounds)

Green is a well-rounded interior blocker with solid size, strength and technique to thrive in the running game for a long time.

 

They also have CB's McDuffie and Booth in that 21-30 range.

 

For WR's they have:

26. Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas (6-2, 225 pounds)

Burks is a huge target with reliable big hands to match. He can dominate smaller, less physical corners and has deceptive speed.

and this guy

31. Drake London, WR, USC (6-4, 219 pounds)

London matches his nice catch radius with great hands and quickness, which makes him a big-play and red zone threat in the Mike Evans vein.

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Joe Thuney was a third round pick. 

Wyatt Teller obviously 5th round and traded by his original team. Team has never won anything. 

 

PFF loves Michael Onwenu who went in the sixth round. 

 

Shaq Mason was a 5th too. 

[SoCal Deek]

8 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Sporting news has this guy ranked 23rd, which is close to where we draft: 

 

23. Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M (6-4, 323 pounds)

Green is a well-rounded interior blocker with solid size, strength and technique to thrive in the running game for a long time.

 

They also have CB's McDuffie and Booth in that 21-30 range.

 

For WR's they have:

26. Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas (6-2, 225 pounds)

Burks is a huge target with reliable big hands to match. He can dominate smaller, less physical corners and has deceptive speed.

and this guy

31. Drake London, WR, USC (6-4, 219 pounds)

London matches his nice catch radius with great hands and quickness, which makes him a big-play and red zone threat in the Mike Evans vein.

Excellent post. Too many of these threads have the Bills drafting in a vacuum. There'll only be so many realistic OL, CBs and WRs available at 25 when they get to the podium. Your list is the only list that matters. (Whenever I look at league-wide Mock Drafts, I immediately look at the next five picks AFTER the Bills to see who they passed on. It really makes no difference who was picked ahead of them.)

[No_Matter_What]

28 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

You don't. And the names on the list prove it.

 

Vera-Tucker, Chris Lindstrom are very good. Their teams still blow. 

 

Quentin Nelson is a generational first ballot hall of fame player drafted in the top 5. As good as he is, the team can't win consistently. You think the Colts would rather have, say Josh Allen instead?

I understand where you coming from and I tend to generally agree. It is similar argument which people (including me) use against drafting RB in the first round. But I don't think that argument is fair without some context.

 

You obviously choose Allen but we are not talking QBs here. We are talking guard vs valuable nonQB positions like LT, CB or DE.

 

Then the question is how valuable is top guard vs top CB or DE. To answer it I would like some serious analyses. Because you can say what you said about Nelson, but I can say the same about Garrett, T.J.Watt, J.J.Watt, Nick Bosa, Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, etc, just to include those who aren't busts. Have they won anything? And some of them are playing on teams which consistently lose or are consistently mediocre.

 

Also discussing which guys from the list are good and which are busts (and ratio between them) is only relevant if you do the same exercise for all other positions. Just from the top of my head there were 6 CBs taken in first round of 2020 draft. As far as I know at least 4 of them are already considered as busts or are quickly approaching that status. And nobody says that drafting CB in the first round is a bad idea.

 

So, my point main is - is there any relevant study which positions actually contribute to teams' success and how much? And is the gap between OG and lets say CB that big that you "always" take Kyle Gordon and not Zion Johnson? I don't know, but I doubt that it has obvious answer.

[MrEpsYtown]

15 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

I understand where you coming from and I tend to generally agree. It is similar argument which people (including me) use against drafting RB in the first round. But I don't think that argument is fair without some context.

 

You obviously choose Allen but we are not talking QBs here. We are talking guard vs valuable nonQB positions like LT, CB or DE.

 

Then the question is how valuable is top guard vs top CB or DE. To answer it I would like some serious analyses. Because you can say what you said about Nelson, but I can say the same about Garrett, T.J.Watt, J.J.Watt, Nick Bosa, Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, etc, just to include those who aren't busts. Have they won anything? And some of them are playing on teams which consistently lose or are consistently mediocre.

 

Also discussing which guys from the list are good and which are busts (and ratio between them) is only relevant if you do the same exercise for all other positions. Just from the top of my head there were 6 CBs taken in first round of 2020 draft. As far as I know at least 4 of them are already considered as busts or are quickly approaching that status. And nobody says that drafting CB in the first round is a bad idea.

 

So, my point main is - is there any relevant study which positions actually contribute to teams' success and how much? And is the gap between OG and lets say CB that big that you "always" take Kyle Gordon and not Zion Johnson? I don't know, but I doubt that it has obvious answer.

 

Here is the thing. All draft picks are pretty much boom or bust. Some positions have a higher bust rate than others. There are some great defensive ends and then there are bust defensive ends. Same with receivers, corners, etc etc. But with those positions the boom is there with the bust. 

 

With IOL, there is no boom. There is solid or bust. It just isn't a position that has a ton of upside and so that is why I always say no to IOL in the first, unless we are talking generational players, or if you have multiple first round picks. Same rule applies to RTs imo. 

 

Who affects the game more? TJ Watt or Quentin Nelson? The answer is always going to be Watt. I want the possibility of some boom with my bust, not meh with my bust. 

Edited March 28, 2022 by MrEpsYtown