The Math Behind the Wide Receiver Blockbusters

[Inigo Montoya]

I would hate to see Diggs leave Buffalo.  He's a great wide receiver and has been a big part of turning this franchise around.  Having said that, look at the list of WRs who have had career years with Josh throwing them the ball;

 

Zay Jones had his career year catching balls from a rookie Josh Allen in 2018.  So did Robert Foster.  John Brown has his career best season during his first year with Josh in 2019. Beasley has a career year in 2019 with second year Josh throwing him the ball, and then surpasses those numbers the following year in 2020.  2020 is the year Diggs comes to town and what does he do?  He has his best season ever.  Look at McKenzie and Gabe Davis.  I don't think their success is a coincidence either.

 

Just one example, look at those ridiculous sideline throws to Gabe Davis all last year.  What other QB could make those throws, running for his life, and still putting the ball EXACTLY where it needs to be to give Davis a chance to pull it in?  We're they great catches by Davis?  Absolutely.  Does Davis even have a chance to make those catches if someone else is throwing him the ball?  Not a chance in hell.

 

The common theme here is who is slinging these guys the rock.  I think Josh is the kind of QB that elevates the WRs on the roster just like Brady did for all those years in New England.  Josh doesn't need a Davante Adams or Tyreek Hill to help elevate his game, it's the other way around.  We don't need superstar WRs to come here, I think we just  need solid WRs and Josh will do the rest.

 

I really hope we find a way to keep Diggs, but I don't think it's a catastrophe if we can't.  As long as we have 17 our passing game will be in good shape.

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I think what you saw with KC and GB were organizations with QB's with elite arm talent realizing that they can produce massive passing #'s without paying $20M+ aaa for a WR1..........see Josh Allen to Gabe Davis in the KC playoff game for an example.    And yes I know Diggs is credited for being the decoy in that game but his woeful numbers that day also underscore the concern that he isn't a RAC guy at this stage........and with a hole like that in his game he might not be viewed as being quite in the class of Adams by the Bills.

 

Every top passing offense in the league last year had a true #1 WR. I don't expect KC and Green Bay to put up the same passing numbers unless they replace Hill and Adams with comparable talent.

 

The truly elite offenses have the QB, a #1 WR, and at least one other top tier offensive skill player. The Bills struggled at times last year because other than Diggs they didn't have anybody else on offense that could take over games. When Diggs got shut down our offense stalled out more often than not. Take him away and that problem gets a whole lot worse.

 

The divisional game is not a good example. Diggs for some reason just does not perform well against Charvarius Ward, it's the only CB that's consistently had his number for the past 2 years. In 4 games against the Chiefs he's averaged 50 YPG, while on the whole in 2020 he averaged 95.9 YPG and in 2021 72.1 YPG. The divisional game isn't evidence that he's slowing down or isn't in the same class as Devante Adams. He just struggles against Charvarius Ward. Davis played great in that game but let's see him perform at that level consistently against #2 CBs before we decide he's capable of producing against #1 CBs week in and week out.

 

If the Bills want the offense to keep producing at an elite level they need to find a way to keep Diggs AND add another top tier skill position player. I don't know why this is even a conversation.

 

Edited March 27, 2022 by HappyDays

[Saxum]

5 hours ago, DJB said:

 

While true the threat of Kelce and also the deep ball from Mahomes downfield to other WR's helped Tyreek. 

 

Noodle arm Tua doesnt pose a similar threat 

 

That must be why they are bringing in Teflon T*m.  Illegal in NFL to be a player/coach but legal to be a QB/dispensary/part-owner.  😛 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Every top passing offense in the league last year had a true #1 WR. I don't expect KC and Green Bay to put up the same passing numbers unless they replace Hill and Adams with comparable talent.

 

The truly elite offenses have the QB, a #1 WR, and at least one other top tier offensive skill player. The Bills struggled at times last year because other than Diggs they didn't have anybody else on offense that could take over games. When Diggs got shut down our offense stalled out more often than not. Take him away and that problem gets a whole lot worse.

 

The divisional game is not a good example. Diggs for some reason just does not perform well against Charvarius Ward, it's the only CB that's consistently had his number for the past 2 years. In 4 games against the Chiefs he's averaged 50 YPG, while on the whole in 2020 he averaged 95.9 YPG and in 2021 72.1 YPG. The divisional game isn't evidence that he's slowing down or isn't in the same class as Devante Adams. He just struggles against Charvarius Ward. Davis played great in that game but let's see him perform at that level consistently against #2 CBs before we decide he's capable of producing against #1 CBs week in and week out.

 

If the Bills want the offense to keep producing at an elite level they need to find a way to keep Diggs AND add another top tier skill position player. I don't know why this is even a conversation.

 

 

 

 

1.  The idea that the reason the Bills offense struggled when it did was because Stefon Diggs was taken away.............that's false.    The ACTUAL reason they struggled when they did was bad offensive line play.   The Bills allowed more combined sacks and pressures than the Bengals OL did.........and it wasn't close..........it was like 125 to 100.   As I opined at the time, the Bills made a tactical error signing Emmanuel Sanders to replace John Brown.........Sanders just added to their general lack of speed and RAC ability.......but with Josh Allen able to buy more time than any QB in the league they immediately became nearly unstoppable once the protection issues were lessened.

 

2. Davonte Adams put up 592 YAC yards in 2021.........Diggs put up just 326.   That's a huge disparity.   Adams is most definitely in a different class because he averages almost 5 yards of his own after every catch.   It's not a 1A and 1B situation at all.   And while I think Tyreek Hill is a little overrated IMO........I heard a Vegas sports book guy say today that Hill is worth +1.5 points on the line when he plays which is the highest point impact of any non-QB in the league.    Diggs is outstanding but he's neither of those guys right now.........which is why he can have an astonishingly poor statistical game like he had in KC in January.

 

Now I am all about stacking up playmaking talent at WR...........I would love to see them get 2 playmaking WR and 2 multi-talented TE out of this draft,  which is pretty deep at both positions...........and would love to see them have to keep 7 even with Kumerow pushed right off the roster by an actual playmaker.

[78thealltimegreat]

8 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I would hate to see Diggs leave Buffalo.  He's a great wide receiver and has been a big part of turning this franchise around.  Having said that, look at the list of WRs who have had career years with Josh throwing them the ball;

 

Zay Jones had his career year catching balls from a rookie Josh Allen in 2018.  So did Robert Foster.  John Brown has his career best season during his first year with Josh in 2019. Beasley has a career year in 2019 with second year Josh throwing him the ball, and then surpasses those numbers the following year in 2020.  2020 is the year Diggs comes to town and what does he do?  He has his best season ever.  Look at McKenzie and Gabe Davis.  I don't think their success is a coincidence either.

 

Just one example, look at those ridiculous sideline throws to Gabe Davis all last year.  What other QB could make those throws, running for his life, and still putting the ball EXACTLY where it needs to be to give Davis a chance to pull it in?  We're they great catches by Davis?  Absolutely.  Does Davis even have a chance to make those catches if someone else is throwing him the ball?  Not a chance in hell.

 

The common theme here is who is slinging these guys the rock.  I think Josh is the kind of QB that elevates the WRs on the roster just like Brady did for all those years in New England.  Josh doesn't need a Davante Adams or Tyreek Hill to help elevate his game, it's the other way around.  We don't need superstar WRs to come here, I think we just  need solid WRs and Josh will do the rest.

 

I really hope we find a way to keep Diggs, but I don't think it's a catastrophe if we can't.  As long as we have 17 our passing game will be in good shape.

I wanna keep Diggs too but I have all the confidence in the world that if the Bills where forced to trade him cause he got disgruntled over his contract. The guy at QB could make just about anyone look good. In his last game he made the number 4 receiver on the depth chart look like Jerry Rice. 
Diggs was a good receiver in Minnesota but he wasn’t anywhere near what he became in Buffalo and much of that has to do with the current QB of the Buffalo Bills. 

Edited March 28, 2022 by 78thealltimegreat

[Chicken Boo]

 

16 hours ago, TBBills said:

Hill has maybe 1-2 more years of speed left at max.

 

I wouldn't bet on that.  Hill is special.  T.O. is still fast.  Hell, Willie Gault ran a 4.4 at age 50.

[Chicken Boo]

Some of these posts are head scratchers.  I couldn't care less about the salary cap.  Pay the talent. 

 

McDermott isn't Belichick.  You're not going to win in this league with mediocre talent surrounding a great QB.