Joe Buscaglia's 7 round Bills Mock draft (paywall)

[Logic]

Buscaglia's 7 round Bills mock draft from today. While I am not generally "Team Round 1 Running Back!", his reasoning for taking Hall does make some sense to me.


https://theathletic.com/3205471/2022/03/24/bills-7-round-post-free-agency-mock-draft-a-running-back-before-a-wide-receiver-or-cornerback/

 

Round 1, No. 25: Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State

When most think about adding firepower to the Bills offense, the first impulse is to go with a receiver. That does make sense, though there may not be a better short-term and long-term fit for an offensive playmaker than Breece Hall. Wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis have two years remaining on their contracts, which makes it less of a need. But running back Devin Singletary is in the final year of his rookie deal.

Singletary stepped up late last season, but he doesn’t have the complete, dynamic skill set the Bills may covet. And they’ll have to pay Singletary pretty well to stick around in 2023. With dwindling cap space for next season and key players coming up on free agency, Tremaine Edmunds, Dawson Knox and Jordan Poyer, Singletary might not fit into their plans. The Bills also tried to sign J.D. McKissic this offseason, which shows they’re not settled at the position.

With Hall, the Bills would be getting a potential three-down threat who would pair with Singletary in the first year and then take over the backfield in 2023. If he hits, Hall would give them the total running back package, which is a lot harder to find in this draft than a quality receiver.

“Hall is an easy running back to like because he doesn’t really have a fatal flaw. He runs with patience, power and agility. He grades very well in the position-specific areas,” The Athletic draft expert Dane Brugler wrote in December. “Coaches will love his ball skill as a pass catcher, showing the body control and hands to adjust to off-target throws. His consistent production and toughness make him one of the more reliable backs in this class.”

The ability to make something out of nothing as a pass catcher is a trait worth chasing. And if the Bills are shifting to more of a zone running scheme, his skills would work perfectly within that. The only question left on Hall was his burst and being able to punish a defense with a home run, and he tested out with elite levels of explosiveness on his 10-yard split, broad jump and vertical at the combine, and he showed a sustained speed with a 4.39-second 40-yard dash. Hall only turns 21 at the end of May, which means the high-level production window is open that much longer because he has fewer miles on the tires. And his best comparable NFL player based on advanced metrics and workout scores? Jonathan Taylor, according to Player Profiler.

I’ve generally been against the notion of drafting a running back in the first round. But, after seeing how 2021 unfolded, I believe the value of a young running back on a rookie deal is increasing. Finding a versatile, three-down back who can be more than just a dump-off option in the passing game and break a run wide open gives a team an immense advantage. With all the great quarterback and receiver play across the league, defenses shifted to an increasing amount of two-high-safety looks. The premise is simple: to prevent a premier passing attack from looking for a deep-field shot. And the strategy worked — a lot.

The Bills weren’t at their best offensively down the stretch until they started mixing in more two-tight-end looks and presented a threat to run, which explained the emphasis of adding tight end O.J. Howard in the offseason. It also slightly devalues the slot receiver, making an early receiver pick less of a slam dunk given the Bills’ current roster construction. Having the right running back who can do it all is the perfect counter to opposing defenses hoping to take away the pass.

The one thing that remains unchanged is that, in most cases, paying a running back with a big second contract is usually not the way to go. The prime of a running back’s career is much earlier than most positions, and the threat of injuries and production dips during that second contract is very real because of how many hits a back takes. So before you know it, that once great running back could become an albatross of a contract and hold a team’s cap space back. By investing in a running back late in the first round, they get a fixed-cost deal and the lowest-costing fifth-year option in the NFL. The running back fifth-year option for the 2019 draft class was the lowest of any position by more than $1 million, and at other positions, the fifth-year option comes close to tripling the running back option. Running back was also the only position not to go over $10 million on a fifth-year option for players who made multiple Pro Bowls. And after that fifth year is when teams start wondering how many more years of top-end production the running back could have, giving a team a natural place to move on without incurring long-term cap problems.

The league has been devaluing running backs for a long time, and the salaries reflect that to drive that fifth-year option down, so it would be wise to exploit that. The Bills would be quite savvy to get ahead of the curve of where the NFL is shifting. And for those wondering, no, Alabama wide receiver Jameson Williams was not available.

 

Round 2, No. 57: Calvin Austin III, WR, Memphis

All of you “wide receiver or bust” fans can rest easy with this selection, which I think is a perfect fit for what the Bills could be looking for to help their offense. Austin is a home run threat with incredible speed, which is something the Bills do not have, and he can develop into a long-term slot receiver in the offense. With Isaiah McKenzie guaranteed only one year on his deal and Jamison Crowder on a one-year contract, it makes sense to draft a long-term slot prospect and develop that player in 2022. Austin would also provide the Bills the pre-snap motion elements they’ve employed for years with McKenzie. Austin could factor into the return game as well. With the top-two pairing of Hall and Austin, the Bills offense is looking a lot scarier to opponents.


 

Round 3, No. 89: Josh Williams, CB, Fayetteville State

Round 4, No. 130: Terrel Bernard, LB, Baylor

 

Round 5, No. 168: Cam Jurgens, IOL, Nebraska

 

Round 6, No. 185: Reed Blankenship, S, Middle Tennessee

 

Round 6, No. 203: Jordan Stout, P, Penn State

 

Round 7, No. 231: Jeremiah Moon, DE, Florida

 

 

Edited March 24, 2022 by Logic

[Magnum Force]

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

Buscaglia's 7 round Bills mock draft from today. While I am not generally "Team Round 1 Running Back!", his reasoning. for taking Hall does make some sense to me.


https://theathletic.com/3205471/2022/03/24/bills-7-round-post-free-agency-mock-draft-a-running-back-before-a-wide-receiver-or-cornerback/

 

Round 1, No. 25: Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State

When most think about adding firepower to the Bills offense, the first impulse is to go with a receiver. That does make sense, though there may not be a better short-term and long-term fit for an offensive playmaker than Breece Hall. Wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis have two years remaining on their contracts, which makes it less of a need. But running back Devin Singletary is in the final year of his rookie deal.

Singletary stepped up late last season, but he doesn’t have the complete, dynamic skill set the Bills may covet. And they’ll have to pay Singletary pretty well to stick around in 2023. With dwindling cap space for next season and key players coming up on free agency, Tremaine Edmunds, Dawson Knox and Jordan Poyer, Singletary might not fit into their plans. The Bills also tried to sign J.D. McKissic this offseason, which shows they’re not settled at the position.

With Hall, the Bills would be getting a potential three-down threat who would pair with Singletary in the first year and then take over the backfield in 2023. If he hits, Hall would give them the total running back package, which is a lot harder to find in this draft than a quality receiver.

“Hall is an easy running back to like because he doesn’t really have a fatal flaw. He runs with patience, power and agility. He grades very well in the position-specific areas,” The Athletic draft expert Dane Brugler wrote in December. “Coaches will love his ball skill as a pass catcher, showing the body control and hands to adjust to off-target throws. His consistent production and toughness make him one of the more reliable backs in this class.”

The ability to make something out of nothing as a pass catcher is a trait worth chasing. And if the Bills are shifting to more of a zone running scheme, his skills would work perfectly within that. The only question left on Hall was his burst and being able to punish a defense with a home run, and he tested out with elite levels of explosiveness on his 10-yard split, broad jump and vertical at the combine, and he showed a sustained speed with a 4.39-second 40-yard dash. Hall only turns 21 at the end of May, which means the high-level production window is open that much longer because he has fewer miles on the tires. And his best comparable NFL player based on advanced metrics and workout scores? Jonathan Taylor, according to Player Profiler.

I’ve generally been against the notion of drafting a running back in the first round. But, after seeing how 2021 unfolded, I believe the value of a young running back on a rookie deal is increasing. Finding a versatile, three-down back who can be more than just a dump-off option in the passing game and break a run wide open gives a team an immense advantage. With all the great quarterback and receiver play across the league, defenses shifted to an increasing amount of two-high-safety looks. The premise is simple: to prevent a premier passing attack from looking for a deep-field shot. And the strategy worked — a lot.

The Bills weren’t at their best offensively down the stretch until they started mixing in more two-tight-end looks and presented a threat to run, which explained the emphasis of adding tight end O.J. Howard in the offseason. It also slightly devalues the slot receiver, making an early receiver pick less of a slam dunk given the Bills’ current roster construction. Having the right running back who can do it all is the perfect counter to opposing defenses hoping to take away the pass.

The one thing that remains unchanged is that, in most cases, paying a running back with a big second contract is usually not the way to go. The prime of a running back’s career is much earlier than most positions, and the threat of injuries and production dips during that second contract is very real because of how many hits a back takes. So before you know it, that once great running back could become an albatross of a contract and hold a team’s cap space back. By investing in a running back late in the first round, they get a fixed-cost deal and the lowest-costing fifth-year option in the NFL. The running back fifth-year option for the 2019 draft class was the lowest of any position by more than $1 million, and at other positions, the fifth-year option comes close to tripling the running back option. Running back was also the only position not to go over $10 million on a fifth-year option for players who made multiple Pro Bowls. And after that fifth year is when teams start wondering how many more years of top-end production the running back could have, giving a team a natural place to move on without incurring long-term cap problems.

The league has been devaluing running backs for a long time, and the salaries reflect that to drive that fifth-year option down, so it would be wise to exploit that. The Bills would be quite savvy to get ahead of the curve of where the NFL is shifting. And for those wondering, no, Alabama wide receiver Jameson Williams was not available.

 

Round 2, No. 57: Calvin Austin III, WR, Memphis

All of you “wide receiver or bust” fans can rest easy with this selection, which I think is a perfect fit for what the Bills could be looking for to help their offense. Austin is a home run threat with incredible speed, which is something the Bills do not have, and he can develop into a long-term slot receiver in the offense. With Isaiah McKenzie guaranteed only one year on his deal and Jamison Crowder on a one-year contract, it makes sense to draft a long-term slot prospect and develop that player in 2022. Austin would also provide the Bills the pre-snap motion elements they’ve employed for years with McKenzie. Austin could factor into the return game as well. With the top-two pairing of Hall and Austin, the Bills offense is looking a lot scarier to opponents.


 

Round 3, No. 89: Josh Williams, CB, Fayetteville State

Round 4, No. 130: Terrel Bernard, LB, Baylor

 

Round 5, No. 168: Cam Jurgens, IOL, Nebraska

 

Round 6, No. 185: Reed Blankenship, S, Middle Tennessee

 

Round 6, No. 203: Jordan Stout, P, Penn State

 

Round 7, No. 231: Jeremiah Moon, DE, Florida

 

 

Wow…I said I wanted Calvin Austin in rd 3 and some people didn’t like it.  Breece!

[Turbo44]

Don't like Hall in the 1st at all. Switch that with another CB (draft two CB's) and draft a RB where he drafted the LB (Rd 4).  waiting until the 5th to draft an Olineman is pretty bad too

[jkeerie]

Does he give a reason why Stout over Araiza at punter?

 

[Magnum Force]

Calvin Austin is a similar WR to Tyreek Hill small with 4.32 40 speed… I said similar

[78thealltimegreat]

Breece had by all accounts an outstanding pro day and was working with the eagles alot. They have three first round picks. Hopefully their huge defensive needs overshadow this guy. 

Edited March 24, 2022 by 78thealltimegreat

[BillsFanSD]

I was opposed to drafting Ettiene last year, but I've changed my mind on this one for the same reason that Buscaglia cites:

 

Quote

With all the great quarterback and receiver play across the league, defenses shifted to an increasing amount of two-high-safety looks. The premise is simple: to prevent a premier passing attack from looking for a deep-field shot. And the strategy worked — a lot.

The Bills weren’t at their best offensively down the stretch until they started mixing in more two-tight-end looks and presented a threat to run, which explained the emphasis of adding tight end O.J. Howard in the offseason. It also slightly devalues the slot receiver, making an early receiver pick less of a slam dunk given the Bills’ current roster construction. Having the right running back who can do it all is the perfect counter to opposing defenses hoping to take away the pass.

 

This is spot on.  The two-high shell gave us and a bunch of similar teams real problems, and those problems mostly went away when we showed the ability to punish that defense by running the football.  Now, could we build on that success by strengthening the o-line and teeing up more Singletary?  Yeah, probably.  But Singletary has a low ceiling and I don't see him in a Bills uniform once he's off his rookie contract.  This offense could be flat-out unstoppable with a higher-end RB, especially if he can run routes out of the backfield.

[NewEra]

NICE!! One more thread in which we can debate the importance of RBs with regards to winning a super bowl. 

[Logic]

Just now, NewEra said:

NICE!! One more thread in which we can debate the importance of RBs with regards to winning a super bowl. 

It's a long 34 days between now and the draft.

You could always go for a jog instead. 

[Alphadawg7]

I cant buy into any mock draft that has us waiting until the 3rd round for a CB, its by FAR our biggest hole right now.  So unless we sign a vet before the draft, I have no doubt CB is coming round 1 or 2

[Charles Romes]

McDermott’s greatest skill is finding free competent help in the secondary. No corner ‘til the 4th!  

[Logic]

6 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

Does he give a reason why Stout over Araiza at punter?

 

Yep. He said he thinks that, in reality, Araiza will be long gone by the 6th round, where he picked Stout. I tend to agree. Some dumb GM will draft him in the third.

[Tanoros]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I cant buy into any mock draft that has us waiting until the 3rd round for a CB, its by FAR our biggest hole right now.  So unless we sign a vet before the draft, I have no doubt CB is coming round 1 or 2

I can’t imagine we don’t bring a vet in before the draft though. That wouldn’t be like Beane to leave such a gaping hole. 

[billsfan1959]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

NICE!! One more thread in which we can debate the importance of RBs with regards to winning a super bowl. 

 

Particularly since nobody seems to care about putting together an offensive line that can actually open holes for a RB....

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, Tanoros said:

I can’t imagine we don’t bring a vet in before the draft though. That wouldn’t be like Beane to leave such a gaping hole. 

 

Yeah, but will it be a quality starter level vet is the question

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, Logic said:

It's a long 34 days between now and the draft.

You could always go for a jog instead. 

Love ya bud

[msw2112]

I didn't read the article, but my thought as to why the Penn State punter was listed and not Araiza in the 6th round is that Araiza will be gone by then.  Also, it has been said that Araiza has never been a holder for kicks.  The Bills have traditionally used their punter in this role.  That said, a thought occurred to me - if they keep both Barkley and Keenum on the roster - a distinct possibility - why can't Barkley hold for kicks?  If Allen is healthy, I suspect that Keenum is going to get most of the 2nd team reps and there won't be many reps available for Barkley anyway.  Barkely will be more of an emergency 3rd QB/glorified assistant QB coach.  If he spends some time with special teams, how deterimental will that really be?  Plus, it gives the team a lot more options as to fake FG pass plays.

 

On the flip side (a hole in my own argument) is that you'd need to have 3 QBs active on game day, and that's not a likely scneario.

Edited March 24, 2022 by msw2112

[jkeerie]

4 minutes ago, Logic said:

Yep. He said he thinks that, in reality, Araiza will be long gone by the 6th round, where he picked Stout. I tend to agree. Some dumb GM will draft him in the third.

Thank you.  I actually like Stout.   He's pretty solid and would serve as a backup FG kicker if needed.

[Logic]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I cant buy into any mock draft that has us waiting until the 3rd round for a CB, its by FAR our biggest hole right now.  So unless we sign a vet before the draft, I have no doubt CB is coming round 1 or 2

I tend to agree....UNLESS they bring in a viable veteran. Then I could see them drafting a CB in rounds 3-5. Lord knows McDermott can coach up a mid round CB.

Starting the season with, say Joe Haden or James Bradberry at CB1, and Dane Jackson competing with a 3rd round rookie at CB2, knowing that White will be back by October....I could see it. Not saying it's IDEAL, but it wouldn't shock me.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

10 minutes ago, Magnum Force said:

Calvin Austin is a similar WR to Tyreek Hill small with 4.32 40 speed… I said similar

Austin is small small. I’m not a fan of drafting him. 
 

This draft is pretty terrible.