Josh Allen’s bad two years

[BRH]

I saw Josh Allen in his last college game and I was sold.  I knew his ceiling was higher than the other QBs in the draft and that’s what I wanted.  I didn’t want either of the two SoCal QBs, and I thought Mayfield was overrated.  As the draft approached I was almost positive JA was their guy.

 

Watch that clip.  It looks eerily familiar.  

 

Then watch this clip from his first year and point to a big play that Mac or Tua is capable of making.  You can’t.  Yes he was inconsistent, but the supporting cast was awful and the tools were clearly there.

 

People who think Mac/Tua/whoever is capable of making the kinds of strides that JA has made are just whistling past the graveyard and they know it.

[SoTier]

12 hours ago, billvernsays said:

I’m aware. I never said he was a finished product as a rookie. My issue is the narrative that this was such a surprise. That his progress is so incredible considering how BAD he was in the 1st 2 years. They made fun of Buffalo for trading up to draft him at 7 overall, yet it was clear Josh had real talent. That’s what I’m saying. 
 

As many posters have said, because of his work ethic and determination Josh has significantly improved each part of every season but at a very steady pace that was easy to see if you actually watched the games, it didn’t come out of nowhere.  

 

I think you are misinterpreting why many were people were surprised by Josh Allen.   Lots of rookie QBs show flashes of what they might be able to do at some point, but they never develop the skills they need.  What makes Allen special is that he actually has done every single thing he needed to do, not just to become a competent QB but an elite one, including learning how to master his emotions during games.   Name another QB in the last 20 years who started as raw as Allen who has actually developed into an elite QB.  I can't think of anyone.  I think that maybe Cam Newton came in as raw as Allen but he never developed into an elite passer although he was successful as a QB.   All the other elite/great QBs who have come into the league since 2000 have come in pretty well started as QBs.  Most first round QBs described as being "raw" have busted,  including JP Losman,  EJ Manuel, and Dwayne Haskins.

[Logic]

I haven't read through this entire thread. Maybe this has already been said, but...

To me, it's simple.

When people talk about Josh's "bad first two years", they tend to forget two key things:

1.) Josh was sushi raw coming out. Didn't get much QB coaching at Wyoming. Had tons of mechanical flaws. Never did the 7-on-7 camps or had the private QB tutors.

This fact alone gets overlooked by so many who want to compare their young QB's first two years to Josh's first two years. Take Tua, for instance. Tua DID have all the 7-on-7 camps, the tutors, the great coaching at a big time school, etc. He -- and most other young QBs that get drafted highly -- were much closer to finished products than Josh Allen. Not NEARLY as raw as Josh. The sheer amount of growth and improvement he needed coming into the league was pretty rare for a 1st round pick.

2.) In both his 1st and 2nd seasons, Josh showed flashes of transcendent physical talent and will/leadership that couldn't necessarily be quantified in statistics. People like to look at Josh's stats his first two years vs the stats of their young QB and make a direct comparison. It wasn't ABOUT stats with Josh, though. We KNOW a lot of his stats (completion %, for instance) stunk. It was about the throws he made. The runs he made. The plays he made that made you jump out of your seat because you couldn't believe what you had just seen. The leadership and will and grit he showed on numerous occasions. You saw flashes where you went "wow...if he can round off the rough edges and make those good plays more routinely, he'll be an all-time great".

So my questions to people who are touting their young third year QBs, Tua or whomever, are as follows: Can you honestly say that your guy has as high a physical ceiling as Josh Allen? That he came into the league needing as much refinement as Josh? And more importantly, this: Forget the statistics. Did you see, with your own eyes, specific plays throughout the first two years that give you hope that this guy can be THE guy? 

Josh was an extremely rare case at QB. An absolute anomaly. But to the surprise of just about no one, he has become the case that everyone looks to in order to justify their faith in their own young QB. Lots and lots of teams are going to get burned expecting Allen-like progression. Dude's a unicorn.

[Orlando Buffalo]

23 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I've said it before.  I thought the Bills had something when Allen hit Ray Ray for a TD against the Panthers as a rookie in preseason.  It's here at around 8:40.  Obviously, he had a lot to learn, but when I saw that throw, I knew the Bills had something.   Four years later, we've seen dozens of throws like that.   We still shake our heads and ask how he did that.

 

I was told by a game specialist at EA sports that this throw was not possible within their physics engine. It was too hard without enough wind up. It was only a minor adjustment but it had to be done.

[BullBuchanan]

There is some real "hindsight is 20-20" here. Allen was pretty terrible throwing the football his rookie year. He missed passes by miles and had terrible judgment. His legs kept him alive. His second year was a modest improvement but was still filled with entirely too many erratic and frustrating plays. Had Allen never taken his year three jump, it's a lot more likely that we would have been in the Watson sweepstakes, than looking forward to having one of the brightest stars in the game for the foreseeable future.

I'm as ecstatic as anyone that he turned into the player that he did, but it took the greatest growth trend in the history of NFL QB play to get him here. To act like this was a forgone conclusion based off his rookie year is ridiculous.

Edited March 25, 2022 by BullBuchanan

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

To act like this was a forgone conclusion based off his rookie year is ridiculous.

No, it isn't, and wasn't ridiculous.  I was pretty much sold after his rookie year, and I wasn't alone.  

 

This is what I wrote and published on Memorial Day weekend, 2019 (after his rookie season).

 

Quote

It’s not that I expect the 2019 Bills to be great – someplace in the 9-7 to 7-9 range once again this year; what I expect is that the 2020 Bills will be a solid playoff team and a regular preseason Super Bowl contender after that.  It could come a year earlier or a year later, but it’s coming.

 

And this: 

 

Quote

In Josh Allen, Beane and McDermott found their guy.   He loves to compete.  He loves to learn – you can see it and hear it in his interviews.   He’s so much more mature, he has so much more understanding of the game, than we saw a year ago.  He handles his duties in press conferences almost flawlessly, giving thoughtful answers, deftly avoiding difficult issues, rarely being flustered.   He desperately wants to do it right, on the field and off, and McDermott thrives on that attitude.  

 

Belichick got his ideal disciple in Brady.  McDermott got his in Allen.  And, by the way, McDermott also got 6’5”, 240 pounds, speed, mobility and a rocket arm.  I think Allen is destined for greatness, because he has all the tools, mental, physical and emotional, and he has the perfect mentor.  A match made, if you believe in that sort of stuff, in heaven.

Some people said I was jumping the gun, and a few even said that was ridiculous.  But a lot of people agreed with me.  

[Not at the table Karlos]

On 3/24/2022 at 9:31 AM, Kaep said:

Allen led the league with most dropped passes in 2019.  So that “crazy” leap from year 2 to 3 isn’t shocking at all when you insert Diggs/Beasley

There was a 5 min video of all the drops. Yes some were repeated but still 5 mins. That's ridiculous.

[ToGoGo]

43 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

No, it isn't, and wasn't ridiculous.  I was pretty much sold after his rookie year, and I wasn't alone.  

 

This is what I wrote and published on Memorial Day weekend, 2019 (after his rookie season).

 

 

And this: 

 

Some people said I was jumping the gun, and a few even said that was ridiculous.  But a lot of people agreed with me.  

 

I also saw it in 2018. 

 

If you have an eye for these things it was obvious.

[Kaep]

1 hour ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

There was a 5 min video of all the drops. Yes some were repeated but still 5 mins. That's ridiculous.

It’s really all you need to see in regard to his jump in stats.  Yet media overthinks it…. Makes it out like it’s sooooo crazy and that he can’t possibly back up his year 3 campaign. Then he does.🤷‍♂️

[K D]

Mahomes didn't get to have a bad first year because he WAS ON THE BENCH! Reports back then was that he was completing more passes to the defense in practice than the receivers.

 

Josh said how good it was to sit down a little during that first year after he was injured to learn a bit more and I don't have the stats in front of me but I remember him playing much better after that. The Bills screwed him over by going into the season with Peterman. Not his fault

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

There is some real "hindsight is 20-20" here. Allen was pretty terrible throwing the football his rookie year. He missed passes by miles and had terrible judgment. His legs kept him alive. His second year was a modest improvement but was still filled with entirely too many erratic and frustrating plays. Had Allen never taken his year three jump, it's a lot more likely that we would have been in the Watson sweepstakes, than looking forward to having one of the brightest stars in the game for the foreseeable future.

I'm as ecstatic as anyone that he turned into the player that he did, but it took the greatest growth trend in the history of NFL QB play to get him here. To act like this was a forgone conclusion based off his rookie year is ridiculous.

And yet a lot of his passes that were completed were jaw dropping throws.  That is what everyone is talking about here. 

 

I thought Allen was the best QB in that draft but like a lot of folks I was worried because so many of the experts were trashing him.  Then I watched every game his rookie season and came away feeling really good that the Bills had their guy. And I had that feeling not because he missed easy throws and made head scratching decisions, which he did by the boatload, but the throws he made - HOLY COW. 

 

 

[Warcodered]

 

I only remember seeing part of this back then.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

To date, Josh's rookie season, he put up arguably the greatest stretch of rushing prowess a QB ever put up. Only Mike Vick put up comparable numbers over a six game stretch. Somehow people didn't factor that in to his overall success and ability in his first season. And his second season was a dramatic improvement in passing efficiency while still be a top 5 or even top 3 QB with his legs. 

[MJS]

On 3/24/2022 at 12:07 AM, Ethan in Portland said:

Fair amount of revisionist history in this thread. There were a number of posters that had their doubts about Allen after year 2. You know who you are. That said there were legit concerns. His deep ball accuracy was still a major issue after year two.  And the stats don’t lie. 58.8% completion in year 2 is horrible. What was a sign of future success was his TD/INT ratio improvement in year 2.  Keep in mind Lamar Jackson is winning the MVP,Allen losing to Watson in the playoffs with worries about hero ball, and Mahommes is going to the SuperBowl at the same time. 
I believe we all saw glimpses of greatness from Allen. But to say it was obvious he was going to make the massive improvement from year 2 to year 3 is disingenuous.

Yeah, there were always naysayers. Even halfway through 2020 there were naysayers (by now, most of them have transferred their ire to McDermott). But most fans noticed the great things that Allen could do even from year 1. And most got on board with him as the Bills starting QB after not too long. The question was always how much of his limitless potential he would actually be able to attain, and that was the unknown at the time. Would Josh Allen just develop into a solid starter for many years but never get over the hump, or would he be able to truly become elite? We all saw the potential, but Allen had to put in the work to achieve it.

 

I haven't seen a single person claim that it was obvious that Allen would make a massive jump in year 3. His jump surprised all of us. We expected more steady improvement, and we got a lot more than we expected. But anyone who watched Allen had to notice the potential even from his rookie year. That's why a lot of Bills fans spent so many endless hours defending Allen and trying to make people see him for who he was when the going narrative was that Allen was just a big running QB who was inaccurate and inconsistent.

[Another Fan]

This thread actually made me recall the McCarron controversy that summer in 18'.  

 

I read this and I tried to remember if Josh was projected to start right away.  

 

The McCarron trade at the time from the Bills didn't make a lot of sense to me.  You know he seemed like an ideal bridge QB until Josh was ready.  

 

 

 

Funny how things in general that seem like a big deal at the time are forgotten about 4 years later!   

Edited March 26, 2022 by Another Fan

[Buffalosouth]

https://youtu.be/scx-lrRw5XERookie preseason touchdown pass to Ray Ray is what sold me on Josh

Edited March 26, 2022 by Buffalosouth

[Albany,n.y.]

31 minutes ago, Another Fan said:

This thread actually made me recall the McCarron controversy that summer in 18'.  

 

I read this and I tried to remember if Josh was projected to start right away.  

 

The McCarron trade at the time from the Bills didn't make a lot of sense to me.  You know he seemed like an ideal bridge QB until Josh was ready.  

 

 

 

Funny how things in general that seem like a big deal at the time are forgotten about 4 years later!   

McCarron was bad in camp, then got hurt in preseason & was behind Peterman, which annoyed McCarron.  Rumors are he didn't want to be a backup to Peterman.  Peterman was bad in the opener & got benched in the 3rd quarter.  After that the Bills named Allen the starter before he got hurt in Houston & missed 4 games.  Then after Peterman failed again when he replaced the injured Josh in Houston, the Bills brought in Anderson & then Barkley.  

 

Here are some quotes before regular camp from Bills Digest indicating McCarron was unimpressive in mini-camp:

 

1. Who will win the starting QB job out of training camp?
CB: I believe it’s going to come down to two candidates —Josh
Allen and Nathan Peterman. Peterman was the most consistent
QB in the spring. Provided he stays on that same track, I think he’ll
be the starter in Week 1 unless Josh Allen comes on faster than
anticipated. It’s clear the Bills brass doesn’t want to throw Allen to
the wolves right away, but if he shines in the preseason he could
get the keys to the offense. AJ McCarron just hasn’t impressed and
doesn’t measure up in the leadership category to the other two.

ML: I never thought I’d be saying this a few months ago, but
I’m going with Nathan Peterman. I thought Peterman was quietly
having a good spring before ramping it up a notch at Buffalo’s
final spring practices. He’s throwing the ball with more velocity
and precision and looks like a different quarterback from last
year. He’ll need to keep that up, of course, and can’t fall back
when it comes to turnovers. But he’s my pick heading into training
camp.
 

[Albany,n.y.]

22 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

There is some real "hindsight is 20-20" here. Allen was pretty terrible throwing the football his rookie year. He missed passes by miles and had terrible judgment. His legs kept him alive. His second year was a modest improvement but was still filled with entirely too many erratic and frustrating plays. Had Allen never taken his year three jump, it's a lot more likely that we would have been in the Watson sweepstakes, than looking forward to having one of the brightest stars in the game for the foreseeable future.

I'm as ecstatic as anyone that he turned into the player that he did, but it took the greatest growth trend in the history of NFL QB play to get him here. To act like this was a forgone conclusion based off his rookie year is ridiculous.

It may not have been a forgone conclusion after his rookie year, but after his 2nd year he was entrenched as the Bills QB, in spite of what the stat boys thought.  He still had to clean up his deep passes after the 2nd season, but anyone who was watching every game & still questioned who was going to be the Bills QB the next 10 years wasn't paying much attention.   

[Strethor]

2018 was a bad situation for any signal caller used his legs to overcome challenges OL WR etc, 2019 was up and down 'hero ball', 2020 he tied everything together.

 

Just because the average NFL fan thinks Josh Allen came out of nowhere his 3rd year doesnt mean he had two bad years - he grew every step of the way.

 

[billsfan1959]

23 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

There is some real "hindsight is 20-20" here. Allen was pretty terrible throwing the football his rookie year. He missed passes by miles and had terrible judgment. His legs kept him alive. His second year was a modest improvement but was still filled with entirely too many erratic and frustrating plays. Had Allen never taken his year three jump, it's a lot more likely that we would have been in the Watson sweepstakes, than looking forward to having one of the brightest stars in the game for the foreseeable future.

I'm as ecstatic as anyone that he turned into the player that he did, but it took the greatest growth trend in the history of NFL QB play to get him here. To act like this was a forgone conclusion based off his rookie year is ridiculous.

 

Clearly, even as a rookie, Allen was far better at playing football than you are at evaluating it...