Rank The AFC After All The Moves

[eball]

A lot of teams have SO many changes it's nearly impossible to predict how well their new players and coaches will gel.  Talk to me in October.

[MJS]

6 minutes ago, ngbills said:

I will believe the KC drop when I see it. I think your QB is much more important than a guy like Hill. Mahomes will still win them games. 

I agree. They still have a great coach, great QB, and a great TE. They have a good oline. Their defense always figures things out later in the season.

 

I don't see them falling out of contention.

[First Round Bust]

what a whirlwind week...amazing amount of big moves overall at the key qb and wr positions...

 

Bills had helluva haul, with limited cap space BBB (Big Baller Beano) still got the job done and has not placed the future in cap jail either.  Improving the pass rush and interior of the DL with more size and talent, but the OL is going to be a constant wokr-in-progress at the guard position until a draftee develops into steady state.

 

Rivals - Miami improved the line and now has speed to help Tua, this could be his last season so lets hope he's mediocre and muddies that decision for them.  NE and Jets not much improvement this UFA seaon

 

The AFC West is catching-up to KC, lets see them drop a notch and play some playoff road games as under Mahomes KC has not played a single AFC playoff on the road.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, corta765 said:

After Hill's trade today rank the AFC as you see it at this point for 2022 (yes I understand draft still needs to happen). Here are my thoughts:

 

1. BUF 13-4    After everything that has happened most complete team right now

2. DEN 12-5    I trust Wilson over LAC for division

 

Agree on the top 2.  I think Chargers have a case for 2, but I am not sure their defensive signings are enough, that defense was bad on 3 levels last year.  

 

1 hour ago, corta765 said:

3. BAL 11-5    Historic amount of injuries last year, they will bounce back

4. TEN 10-7    They've bled some depth but I trust them over IND more right now

 

I think I have to get the Chargers here somewhere in the top 4.  

 

1 hour ago, corta765 said:

5. LAC 12-5    Tie breaker for division so they are WC and really good

6. CIN 10-7    They get the WC and start on the road this playoff year. Their rivals have all gotten better

7. MIA 10-7    Similar to the Patriots last year a soft schedule compared to AFCW or AFCN foes will gift wins even though talent wise  teams 8-10 are better IMO.

------ playoff cut off -------

8. CLE 9-8    Watson is going to be suspended for at least 4-6 games if not more. That's too many games in division this competitive

9. OAK 9-8    I think that QB wise their third in division and the attrition inside will hurt their playoff chances more then talent

10. KC 9-8    They have bled a lot of free agents as the cap has not been nice and their division is insane. Hill leaving though makes it a tough sell to see them up top

 

Couple of things, Cincinnati made the SB last year, but doesn't mean they are a top 6 team this year.  I think they regress...that being said, they can still win their division and be at least the 4th seed, but this isnt a playoff positional list, this is best team list.  And right now, I don't have them in the top 6.  They had a lot..and I mean a lot...of success throwing 50/50 balls, prayer balls, etc.  Guys made some insane plays at a high success rater for the risks of those plays.  And thats just not sustainable way to consistently win in the NFL.  So while, I fully acknowledge they could still win their division, I don't think they are one of the 6 best teams in the AFC right now personally.  

 

I think people are also writing the Chiefs off way too fast.  Go back and check the stat lines last year on Hill...big game, then like 5-7 duds in a row of like 30 yards.  This is a WR rich draft with an elite QB in KC.  You can bet they will take at least one WR early, and when you have a guy like Mahomes, that WR may come in and make a big impact early.  

 

Miami over achieved under a great coach...I think they regress this year even after adding Hill.  

 

Oakland is better than people are giving them credit for right now and I think will surprise some people this year.  They have a good defense and added Chandler Jones to it.  Their offense is intriguing with addition of a big time guy like Adams too who already has played with Carr.  Yes Carr is a big downgrade from Rodgers, but he still is a guy who can sling the ball and played clutch in close games.  So I think they could be a tough out.  

 

1 hour ago, corta765 said:

11. IND 8-9    Matt Ryan is on the backside of his career and has been for years. He couldn't take advantage of the weapons he had in ATL the last few years and has less in IND

12. JAX 8-9    Competent coaching will do wonders for Trevor who takes steps forward. After hearing very thing Urban did its a miracle he didn't retire at QB

13. PIT 7-10   Mitch its not personal just business and they have the 4th best QB in a division that is quite solid.

14. NE 7-10   Teams year 1 with new free agents gain on average 3 wins, next year they lose that gain. Additionally the rest of the division is only better and nothing has been done to help make Mac's life easier.

15. NYJ 5-12    Their defense will play better this year, but their offense is still ways behind the rest of the AFC plus Zach Wilson needs to take some major steps to show life.

16. HOU 4-13   They are slowly rebuilding what they had it will just take time.

 

All of these teams above belong in this range IMO, people can argue the order, but I cant put any of them higher except maybe Atlanta over Cleveland just given the probability Watson gets a big suspension.  However, Cle with no Watson suspension is better than Indy imo.  

 

My ranking:

1. BUF - Almost all of our main pieces back and some very good FA additions to areas we need to improve.
2. Den - Tough to put them here before we see what Wilson can do there, but on paper it makes sense given the balance of defense and offense they have.
3. LAC - Herbert takes yet another progressive step, which is enough to move them up to 3 even though the D has questions to whether it is improved enough.
4. KC - Too early to right them off.  Hill will be missed, but his production was very hit or miss, they can find a replacement for that potentially in this WR rich draft.  
5. OAK - Yes I realize I just put the whole AFCW from 2 -4, but its (on paper) maybe the best division ever, and quite frankly I think any of the 4 are capable of winning it.  I think its unrealistic to say all 4 make the playoffs, but this isn't a playoff list, its best team list.  And right now, I think these 4 are better than everyone in the AFC not named the Bills.  
6. TEN - They proved doubters wrong when they kept beating the best teams even after losing Henry.  
7. CIN - A lot of people will have them higher, but I don't feel their style of winning is sustainable long term and I think other teams have improved more than they will be next year.  
8. BALT - Assuming they are all healthy and stay that way, I think they work their way back to being one of the better AFC teams, but how good is still a question.  They have some holes still and questions at RB as well, so hard to know who they are today.  Potential to be a top 4 team or could miss the playoffs, hard team to figure out at this stage of the offseason.

Honorable mentions for top 8:

• Cleveland would be in that top 8 if not for the expected Watson suspension.  If he doesn't get suspended then I think Cleveland by default moves into the top 5 ranking.  
• Indy is a curious one, not sure how much of an impact Ryan at this age makes there with mediocre receiving group compared to what he was used to in Atlanta most his career.  But on paper now, I like the other teams a little bit better, but they are pretty close with those teams outside of the top 5 in terms of ranking them today.
• Miami I think is at best a 9 win team, and may be under .500 this year.  I think they will feel the sting of losing their HC a lot personally who always had them over achieving most the time.  I have a feeling they are more like a 7 or 8 win team, AFCE has a tough schedule this year.
• Teams like NE and PIT cant be in the top 8 right now, but they have sleeper potential.  NE showed it last year, while not in our class of teams, they still found ways to win a lot more games than people expected, so hard to just flat out count them out even though they definitely don't belong in the top 8 ranking list right now.  And Trubisky might just surprise a lot of people in Pit...I mean he cant be any worse than Ben was last year IMO, and likely better.  If he Trubisky comes in and proves to be a good starter there, then that team can be dangerous again.  

 

Everyone else has no shot at being in the convo of being a good team this year IMHO.  

 

[corta765]

14 minutes ago, MJS said:

I agree. They still have a great coach, great QB, and a great TE. They have a good oline. Their defense always figures things out later in the season.

 

I don't see them falling out of contention.

 

I don't think it is out of contention as much as attrition finally catches them a bit with a hyper improved division, 1st place schedule, restructured offense, and four years of extra playoff games which does have an impact. I also think long term the amount of picks they have could open a larger window to win then had they kept Hill.

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Teams like NE and PIT cant be in the top 8 right now, but they have sleeper potential.  NE showed it last year, while not in our class of teams, they still found ways to win a lot more games than people expected, so hard to just flat out count them out even though they definitely don't belong in the top 8 ranking list right now.  And Trubisky might just surprise a lot of people in Pit...I mean he cant be any worse than Ben was last year IMO, and likely better.  If he Trubisky comes in and proves to be a good starter there, then that team can be dangerous again.  

 

NE has a great coach and awful GM  They are always a tough out and even thought talent wise they are really behind the rest of the AFC, BB is a master at getting the most out of his team. PIT is a massive wildcard and could easily get back into it..

[MJS]

3 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

I don't think it is out of contention as much as attrition finally catches them a bit with a hyper improved division, 1st place schedule, restructured offense, and four years of extra playoff games which does have an impact. I also think long term the amount of picks they have could open a larger window to win then had they kept Hill.

The AFC West upgraded for sure, but they will have some growing pains with all the changes, I think. We'll see.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

AFC #1 w/ the NFC a distant #2

[corta765]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

The AFC West upgraded for sure, but they will have some growing pains with all the changes, I think. We'll see.

 

If KC can add a plug and play WR too in the draft it could really mute the impact. One thing I will forever remember one of the NFL analysts saying was that a players impact W/L wise that was not a QB was maybe one more win whereas a elite QB being out is like a 4-5 game swing W/L wise. Andy Reid is a superb offensive mind and if he can get another FA WR along with a young stud WR round 1 I can def see the impact being far more muted. The offense is going to change no doubt, I think it is more how long it takes to get clicking then anything else.

[MJS]

15 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Everyone else has no shot at being in the convo of being a good team this year IMHO.

There are usually some surprises, like teams we thought would be good but turn out to be average or worse. Cleveland and Denver are candidates for that, in my opinion. Denver seriously upgraded on paper, but they play in a tough division with a new head coach (do we really believe in Nate Hackett?) and a lot of new faces. With Cleveland, even if Watson isn't suspended, he has been out of football for a year and Cleveland usually finds ways to underperform.

 

The Chargers are hyped every year but find ways to lose. Herbert is great, but we could see a similar story as last year.

 

It's going to be an exciting year in the AFC. It will be really interesting to see which teams rise to the top and which ones got over hyped.

Edited March 23, 2022 by MJS

[Success]

In a non-related note, the Pats actually picked a good time to be bad.  

 

If the AFC had been like this when they were on top, they'd probably have half the # of titles...

 

[MJS]

1 minute ago, Success said:

In a non-related note, the Pats actually picked a good time to be bad.  

 

If the AFC had been like this when they were on top, they'd probably have half the # of titles...

 

The AFC had plenty of good teams. The Pats beat up on the entire NFL, not just the AFC. There are only a couple of teams that had ok records against them during their run, the Giants one of them, I think. The rest of the NFL had a pretty dismal record against them.

[Greg S]

15 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

AFC #1 w/ the NFC a distant #2

 

Reminds me of when the NFC had a long winning streak in the Super Bowl back in the 80's and 90's. Unfortunately the Bills got caught up in that. Fans would say the NFC championship game was the real Super Bowl. 

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, MJS said:

There are usually some surprises, like teams we thought would be good but turn out to be average or worse. Cleveland and Denver are candidates for that, in my opinion. Denver seriously upgraded on paper, but they play in a tough division with a new head coach (do we really believe in Nate Hackett?) and a lot of new faces. With Cleveland, even if Watson isn't suspended, he has been out of football for a year and Cleveland usually finds ways to underperform.

 

The Chargers are hyped every year but find ways to lose. Herbert is great, but we could see a similar story as last year.

 

It's going to be an exciting year in the AFC. It will be really interesting to see which teams rise to the top and which ones got over hyped.

 

Also all true statements.  Hard to truly do a ranking now for obvious reasons.  

 

I do think Oakland is going to be a team that people sleep on personally.  They get to the QB and they have a very intriguing offense now.  Renfrow as a #1 WR...MEH.    Renfrow as a #2 guy with Adams...might be scary good.  Plus you have Waller still and a good run game.  Carr isn't elite, but hes no slouch either and he was pretty clutch in close games last year.  

 

I agree on Chargers about the hype, but Herbert is entering his 4th year with continuity all around him on offense.  He has been ascending his whole career so far, its likely going to be a year we see him continue to improve.  My biggest question with them is how much is their defense improved after being bad on all 3 levels last year.  Lot of fire power in that division on paper to contend with.  

 

As far as Watson goes, he is not coming off injury.  I don't think it will take that long to find his form again, and his old form was a top 5 QB.  Question is 2 fold...does he get suspended (seems likely) and if so, for how long?  That will determine Clevelands ability to be a playoff team or not this year.  

 

[nedboy7]

I think the season will be a blood bath and nothing is given to the Bills.  I do not see an easy year at all.  Anything can happen.  We could easily lose home field again.  There might be 4 bad teams in the AFC and everyone else could be in play.  Good news is AFC East is for the taking no doubt. 

[JoPoy88]

I don’t think any AFC teams are going to have a runaway great record and only lose 2, 3, or even 4 games. My guess is the Bills go 12-5 and still get the 1 seed. 

[corta765]

9 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

I think the season will be a blood bath and nothing is given to the Bills.  I do not see an easy year at all.  Anything can happen.  We could easily lose home field again.  There might be 4 bad teams in the AFC and everyone else could be in play.  Good news is AFC East is for the taking no doubt. 

 

I agree nothing is a certainty, but Bills have the second easiest division both talent and QB wise after AFC South which def helps. In the end I always comeback to QB play as the barometer for where teams finish out.  BUF's ace in the hole is having an elite QB when in division no one else does. The AFC West and AFC North races will be blood baths this year.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

24 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

Reminds me of when the NFC had a long winning streak in the Super Bowl back in the 80's and 90's. Unfortunately the Bills got caught up in that. Fans would say the NFC championship game was the real Super Bowl. 

Which is funny because they were saying the same thing this past season… and then the NFC won… again 😂

[billybrew1]

Bills # 1

The rest I don’t care…

 

Go Bills!

[78thealltimegreat]

I’d be mildly surprised if Mr Austin or Mr Williams aren’t Chiefs after the first round 

[billybrew1]

2 hours ago, TBBills said:

I don't see Miami being more than an 8 win team.

Miami? LOL…. We’re gonna sweep them again….