Interesting Draft Strategy??

[Buffalo_Stampede]

CB and OG now are my guesses for 1st and 2nd rounds.

 

WR middle rounds.

[brianthomas]

48 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 Trading multiple high picks to move up in the first round is nonsensical. 

Couldnt agree more with your post. Case in point think of the Pats dynasty. How often during their run were they trading up higher into the 1st round?

They frankly did the opposite if i remember right, frequently trading down to get more picks. Because as you said, those rookie deals are important as it gets harder & harder to manage the payroll

[RyanC883]

4 hours ago, wagne591 said:

I will keep this short

 

In round 1:  Jameson Williams WR Ala. We have enough depth now to draft him late in the first. He is a top 10 talent that we don't have to rush back and the way WR are getting paid now it would be nice to pair him with Josh for the next 5 years.  That will take Josh into the mid-late stages of his career.

 

In round 2:  Best CB available.  I still know we are going to sign a veteran CB at some point (Beane always does) but we still need youth there.

 

In round 3 or 4 draft: David Ojabo LB Michigan.  first round talent that tour his ACL today at proday.  Again we have enough depth and he would be in no hurry to return this year.  

 

I just have a feeling it is going to be hard for a draft pick later in the draft to make this team anyway so why not set us up for the next 4 to five years with the hurt guys.

 

 

 

Not bad throughs.  I just see a few issues.  I'd prefer a different WR over Williams.  Williams was a one-year wonder at Alabama, which worries me enough.  That, on top of his injury, and I'd go elsewhere at WR.  But I'm fine with WR in Rd. 1 or CB.  Just BPA.  

 

If Ojabo is available in Rd. 3 I would def take him.  I don't think he slides that far, but for the reasons you stated, yeah, take him there! 

 

 

2 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:

Olave would be a good pick.  Dotsonn is thought by some to be more of a slot receiver, and Buffalo just signed Jameson Crowder.  Williams it somewhat faster and taller than Olave, though he's something of a one year wonder.

 

Olave would be fine at 25, otherwise, BPA is likely a CB.  

[Big Blitz]

52 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Beane's strategy for 3 years running has been BPA in the 1st round, then fill a need in the 2nd round. That strategy hasn't exactly produced stellar results in the 2nd round but there's no reason to think that strategy will change.

 

I expect BPA at pick 25 to be a DB, and I think Beane knows it which is why he has been slow to add a CB this offseason. Booth or Gordon or Hill will be the pick IMO.

 

In the 2nd round I expect a trade up for a WR. The year we drafted Epenesa, Beane admitted after the draft that he thought a WR with a 2nd round grade would be there at pick 54. He might as well have said he wanted to draft a WR in that spot and was denied the opportunity. That was the year Higgins, Pittman Jr., Shenault, Hamler, and Claypool all went in the 2nd round before our pick. Beane is the type to try again, but more aggressively, when he fails the first time around (see: acquiring Emmanuel Sanders and Von Miller). This year there is a pack of WRs expected to go in the 2nd - Dotson, Watson, Pickens, Metchie, Moore, Austin, others I'm probably forgetting. I think Beane will have 3-4 of them that he is aiming for and once 1 of them makes it past pick 40 he'll start making calls.

 

Round 1: Best DB available

Round 2: WR trade up

Round 3: Best OL or DL available

 

That's how I see it.

 

 

Yea these are good examples as to why sometimes you just have to trade up.  

 

From late 3rd to early 3rd....late 2nd to early 2nd.

 

With the position this team is in I think coming out of this draft with 5 guys that have a legit shot to make the team and 1 or 2 start is better then having 8 picks and you're lucky if 5 or maybe 6 are on the roster and maybe 1 starter.  

 

Just did the PFF draft simulation - trade with Giants:

 

 

Edited March 22, 2022 by Big Blitz

[DrPJax]

5 hours ago, wagne591 said:

I will keep this short

 

In round 1:  Jameson Williams WR Ala. We have enough depth now to draft him late in the first. He is a top 10 talent that we don't have to rush back and the way WR are getting paid now it would be nice to pair him with Josh for the next 5 years.  That will take Josh into the mid-late stages of his career.

 

In round 2:  Best CB available.  I still know we are going to sign a veteran CB at some point (Beane always does) but we still need youth there.

 

In round 3 or 4 draft: David Ojabo LB Michigan.  first round talent that tour his ACL today at proday.  Again we have enough depth and he would be in no hurry to return this year.  

 

I just have a feeling it is going to be hard for a draft pick later in the draft to make this team anyway so why not set us up for the next 4 to five years with the hurt guys.

 

 

This is obviously a year Beane is going all in as evidenced by bringing  back Guys like phillips, 
Lawson, Barkley and spending on someone like Miller.   It is not a time to take on projects based on potential. We are not THAT deep that we can afford to take on two medical rehab projects who may not , probably won’t touch the field this year. What good is talent that is not available ? You are also wasting cheap years as you would be paying for rehab , not filling in depth this year. Injuries happen and no team is deep enough to waste   TWO  cost effective draft picks on guys who “ might “ get back as you are  just paying for added risk as 50% of draft picks when healthy don’t hit to begin with. You are not Setting anything up for “ 4-5 years” when you are wasting a year right off the top.
 

Most rookies improve greatly In their second year and ALREADY INJURED PLAYERS just have their  experience gained a year further down the road. Why do this at this point , are these guys superstars NOW who have shown they can produce at THIS level yet ? No, they are gifted college players who are now unfortunately carrying an extra risk as one may get back this year ( albeit in a difficult to learn wr position where we have already seen a guy like Hodges has two wasted years on medical Ir or at least never touched the field at this point ), while the other is definitely out the whole year with the Achilles tear.   If I’m an owner , I’m not using HIGH ( first three rounds )  draft picks to pay for their rehab , especially as there may be close to the same talent  present in other players, without the added risk who can play roles now in a year when we are right up against the cap and can’t afford more FA’s as injuries begin to occur which we know do every year.  You expect your top 2-3 picks to be productive right away, and in this scenario you need them for depth at a minimum as you are ready to compete for a SB NOW !  Who can afford to worry about having guys for the following year as luxury picks that are 100% never going to be anything you can depend or count on definitively this year?  It’s different if you are a team niot expected to compete this year for the SB and you are in rebuild mode and can be patient.  You don’t do this as a team bringing in a guy for 120 mil as you try to find the last pieces to get you over the hump for a title! 
 

The NFL IS CURRENTLY a year to year league as we have seen the past two SB winners load up the year they won with Tampa bringing in Brady et Al , and LA bringing in Stafford, Miller, OBJ, etc. Did you see them stockpiling drafted guys ; no , they brought in known production. Drafting injured guys means you are getting nothing , zero production NOW.   We still have holes and the top few picks need to be on the field in some capacity this year imo. It’s different if you are talking about getting injured guys in later rounds , like maybe taking s flier on ONE guy in later rounds after your major depth is taken care of. But it’s foolish to throw earlier , valuable picks at rehabbing potential for the future when your ownership is spending and going all out for a SB this year. Heck , if the Bills  get bounced early again , who is to say Mcd is around to even  see when those guys hit the field. ( unlikely but who knows in todays NFL?)  It’s that old saying , drafting for potential is drafting for the next coach.  Maybe they take a flier on one of them , but if so I would bet it’s the guy who at least their medical staff has assured them can compete at some point THIS year, but I would be shocked if they used a first round pick in a year with needs as they are feeling the pressure to make it to the SB after falling short the past two years. Beane already said it , they have to hit in the draft this year as they don’t have any further money to spend , and picking a guy to just stockpile for a year for a franchise who has never won a title seems like an unnecessary, luxury risk. 

 

 

[BreezeMafia]

Considering the depth signed across the roster and the success of Beane & Co with the previous years drafts, would not be surprised if we packaged up picks to move up and secure the #1 or #2 CB on the board.

[No_Matter_What]

I've seen Ojabo now mocked to Texans in the 2nd and to me that makes ton of sense.

 

As for the Bills, I really expect some combo of WR/OG/CB in first three rounds as a base plan (unless player too good to pass on drops). So we only have to find optimal value. 

 

Judging by Tankathon board the biggest problem to find value on these positions is 2nd round, where they have no OGs and very few players on other positions.

 

1st round is great since we will have probably tons of options either way (Burks/Olave/Willamson/Dotson - Johnson/Green - Booth/Elam/McDuffie/Gordon). 3rd round also seem to have value everywhere.

 

So for me its just a matter of tiers in all positions, drops between them and finding the right combo. My main wish is to find a best guard possible.

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

You don't draft #25 and claim you're all in.

 

Just aren't.  

 

If this was the 2019 Bills drafting yes, you stock picks or hold.  

 

 

 

 

That definition of being all in is nuts. You don't throw away the future to improve your shot this year.

 

Especially with the future we have.

 

You don't go all in. You go the smart amount of in.

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, DrPJax said:

 

The NFL IS CURRENTLY a year to year league as we have seen the past two SB winners load up the year they won with Tampa bringing in Brady et Al , and LA bringing in Stafford, Miller, OBJ, etc. Did you see them stockpiling drafted guys ; no , they brought in known production. Drafting injured guys means you are getting nothing , zero production NOW.   We still have holes and the top few picks need to be on the field in some capacity this year imo. It’s different if you are talking about getting injured guys in later rounds , like maybe taking s flier on ONE guy in later rounds after your major depth is taken care of. But it’s foolish to throw earlier , valuable picks at rehabbing potential for the future when your ownership is spending and going all out for a SB this year. Heck , if the Bills  get bounced early again , who is to say Mcd is around to even  see when those guys hit the field. ( unlikely but who knows in todays NFL?)  It’s that old saying , drafting for potential is drafting for the next coach.  Maybe they take a flier on one of them , but if so I would bet it’s the guy who at least their medical staff has assured them can compete at some point THIS year, but I would be shocked if they used a first round pick in a year with needs as they are feeling the pressure to make it to the SB after falling short the past two years. Beane already said it , they have to hit in the draft this year as they don’t have any further money to spend , and picking a guy to just stockpile for a year for a franchise who has never won a title seems like an unnecessary, luxury risk. 

 

 

Tampa's drafting was consistent and fantastic. It's the reason Brady chose that team. They absolutely did not throw away high They built that team through the draft.

 

They were one of the obvious choices for Brady because they were consistently very good drafters with the exception being QB.

 

"Who is to say that Beane ... "?  Oh, you're that guy.

 

Edited March 22, 2022 by Thurman#1

[MrEpsYtown]

The first round pick almost has to be a corner. McDuffie is the guy to me. But that probably requires a mini trade up. I think the value at LB is there in the 2nd. Maybe PSU's Smith or Andersen, Leo Chenal. Then I think you go IOL. 

 

Do not draft a guard in the first round. Please! Don't do it. Don't draft a receiver either. 

 

Drafting a corner right now is the move. White is under contract for 4 more years, during which time you could have a cheap 1st round corner playing on that rookie contract. When that 5th year option comes up, White will be a free agent. Hopefully things worked out with your new corner and that point you don't necessarily have to extend both. You extend the younger guy and rinse and repeat. 

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

We got Tre 27th overall. We don't need a top 5 pick for a CB1.

 

 

This is part of the value of the McDermott system.

 

Look at the DBs drafted by McD in Carolina.Above the 4th round, only two, Bradberry (2nd) and Daryl Worley (3rd), in six years. Got Josh Norman in the 5th.

 

Not saying they won't, but they don't have to go CB in the 1st. It's just what most are saying. Could be IOL (got to protect Allen), CB, WR, maybe even DL.

 

 

Edited March 22, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Don Otreply]

9 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

First, this is a scenario where they drop a little. I've seen MANY mocks where one of the two is available around the 12-14 range.

 

Second, traditionally our 1st and 2nd would get us to 17. But in a year without QBs at the top, I get the feeling people are looking to move down and get picks for next season. So the price may be cheaper.

 

Lastly, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that if he feels either are worth it and would take us over the top - that he'd move a pick, maybe even the 1st, from next season.

 

If he retains Bates and adds another bargain guy or two he really likes - he'll really set himself up to have the team where CB is the only real need outside of developmental depth players. And he's proven in years past he likes to move up in drafts. I don't think this is crazy as you think.

 

I think he will move up, even if it's just a little, to make sure he gets one of the top 4 corners. I've seen some mocks and done some mocks online where Gardner, Stingley, McDuffie, and Booth are gone by 25. I don't see him just sitting at 25 and settling on whoever is the best available at the position. 

One of them is gonna have to drop to 17-19 area, and with all the good WRs in the league and the new prospects coming out, there will be a lot of action trying to get one of the good ones, Beane may very well be active in that area, but only if there is a significant drop by one or more of them, fingers crossed 🤞 we get our targets in the draft. 
 

Go Bills!!!

[78thealltimegreat]

One caveat for the trade up idea is that Brandon when he was on Pat Mcafes show yesterday did say he has to hit on some of these mid round picks with salary cap considerations coming up the next few years. 
So I wouldn’t mind if they trade up particularly this year when they have so few needs. I just don’t see Brandon doing it cause he needs the players at positions where he may have to cut a guy or two down the road. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

9 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

CB and OG now are my guesses for 1st and 2nd rounds.

 

WR middle rounds.

 

Same - I flip flop on each and it depends whos there at guard for 25.  If targets arent there for either i may look to trade down, and try and add an extra 2nd day pick.  4 picks in rounds 2-3 would help with holes at OG, CB, WR, MLB (not a hole yet, but they didn't extend him either) 

 

 

[Tanoros]

13 hours ago, Mat68 said:

With how Beane emphasized the importance of the this years draft I think they may be aggressive early.  I could see a few trade ups.  If a cb they like starts to fall or a run on cb starts I think they will aggressively pursue a trade up.  Without the big qbs the price for trading up wont be as much imo.  

I think this is more likley.  The depth at wr is impressive a quality wr will be available in Rd 2.   Corner is the only hole on the roster.  Other places could be upgraded but not as wide open as cb. 

The only thing is, trading up for Gardner or Stingley likely costs us our second round pick. I’m skeptical of a first round trade up, I think the potential trade up scenarios is second and later. This draft doesn’t have a lot of very elite talent, but tons of good talent. The second/third rounds are looking to be very good rounds to have multiple picks in. 

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That definition of being all in is nuts. You don't throw away the future to improve your shot this year.

 

Especially with the future we have.

 

You don't go all in. You go the smart amount of in.

Tre was pick 27 and he not only started week 1, he did a fantastic job. We can get quality players at the end of the first and still be, “all in”. For instance, this draft isn’t loaded with elite talent, and you don’t trade up, just to trade up. 
 

The Bills will have many plans of attack for this draft and based on how things fall, they will execute said plans. I’m sure they will have plans for taking a cb/wr/iol/other in the first and corresponding rounds after. 

[Tanoros]

11 hours ago, Motor26 said:

I don’t think they have to trade a future 1st to prove they’re “all in.” Maybe they trade like a 4th and a 6th to move up a few spots and get the CB they really like, but I don’t see any reason to trade all the way up for Gardner when probably McDermotts biggest strength has been coaching up DB’s.

I also think it would be very rare for Beane to trade picks from next years draft. Like you said, a small trade up would certainly be in consideration (costing this years assets only).
 

We may be making a Super Bowl push, but we are at a point where we will need guys on rookie contracts contributing. Every year we will need a one or more, and that’s easiest to do with early picks. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Going all in does not mean wasting draft picks moving up.  To me going all in is using the draft to fill the hole at CB and still provide needed depth at OL and WR.

Given the depth in this draft at CB and WR, the right move is to trade down and get a fourth pick in the top 100. 

Then take CB, WR, OT, and LB in no particular order. A safety instead of a LB would be an option to. Then get a guard and a punter in round 4 and 5. Trade the rest of the picks away.

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

11 minutes ago, Tanoros said:

I also think it would be very rare for Beane to trade picks from next years draft. Like you said, a small trade up would certainly be in consideration (costing this years assets only).
 

We may be making a Super Bowl push, but we are at a point where we will need guys on rookie contracts contributing. Every year we will need a one or more, and that’s easiest to do with early picks. 

Of all the things people say Beane does and doesn't do which are erroneous, this one is correct. He has made multiple trades up in the draft to pick certain players (Allen, Edmunds,Knox) but I believe every one was using picks in the same draft. I cant recall a single trade giving up a future draft pick to move up in the draft. He gave away a 3rd for Kelvin Benjamin and obviously a 1st for Diggs. 

[Purplebulldog]

I've seen McCreary play in person many times, he is the real deal.

[NewEra]

14 hours ago, wagne591 said:

I will keep this short

 

In round 1:  Jameson Williams WR Ala. We have enough depth now to draft him late in the first. He is a top 10 talent that we don't have to rush back and the way WR are getting paid now it would be nice to pair him with Josh for the next 5 years.  That will take Josh into the mid-late stages of his career.

 

In round 2:  Best CB available.  I still know we are going to sign a veteran CB at some point (Beane always does) but we still need youth there.

 

In round 3 or 4 draft: David Ojabo LB Michigan.  first round talent that tour his ACL today at proday.  Again we have enough depth and he would be in no hurry to return this year.  

 

I just have a feeling it is going to be hard for a draft pick later in the draft to make this team anyway so why not set us up for the next 4 to five years with the hurt guys.

 

 

Better resign Bates then.  
 

i don’t  think there’s much chance of ojabo making it out of round 2 let along making it to 3-4.