Ryan "Rick" Bates Watch Thread

[MAJBobby]

My Targets would be IF they decide not to match Bates in order

 

Ereck Flowers

Will Hernandez

Trai Turner

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

My Targets would be IF they decide not to match Bates in order

 

Ereck Flowers

Will Hernandez

Trai Turner

 

FLASHBACKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FlowEr20.htm

 

[Golden]

12 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

That they cannot do.  Have to MATCH the offer.  meaning whatever Bears signed is Bates contract this year.  Can redo it if needed next year.

 

13 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

That they cannot do.  Have to MATCH the offer.  meaning whatever Bears signed is Bates contract this year.  Can redo it if needed next year.

Well said, which brings us right back to why did they only do right of first refusal as opposed to draft pick comp.  Here is where we see their perspective on this most clearly.  Beane is thorough, you know he has other plans in place. 

[Paul Costa]

1 hour ago, DrPJax said:

I understand your great point; however it’s not like he was just on the roster for a few games or just one season.  They have had plenty of time to evaluate him, and after he performed well, it looks like they underestimated his talent and continually over valued Ford ( Fina , who Rarely is critical of guys on the roster , said Ford has heavy feet and has not lived up to what you expect at this point) and they may have under valued Bates again with the lower tender.  So they got rid of Williams, Feliciano , and now will probably lose Bates’ and so far just brought in a guy for a year in Safford.  What happened to all the talk by Beane of protecting Josh,  as you stated?  This looks like a mess to me. Hard to believe they plan on drafting a rookie at guard to plug and play ; just look at Brown as it took several games of horrible line play before they stuck with him , mostly forced to because of injuries.  So do you think Beane meant we needed to protect Josh and he was depending on grabbing a starting guard in the draft ; just seems unlikely to me, and depth is still a major concern as we witnessed many injuries on the O line in the reg season last year. 
 

I think Beane made an error, as  Bates’ stabilized the line going into the playoffs and the line play unquestionably got better after he was inserted. With the low tender and losing Bates’ , you essentially lose three starters and gained one guard.  So at a minimum we are really questionable with depth now and it’s looking like because of the cap , they may go back to Ford at RG, and imo  that’s a disaster waiting to happen. I hate to see them going thru what they did last year with all the numerous changes in the line , when all this could have been ( and maybe still could be ) avoided by sticking with Bates’.  Yes, it was a limited STARTING sample, yet he gave them nothing to really be critical of or to base speculation that if paid he suddenly would get worse.  He is definitely safer than trying one more time with Ford.  If they lose him , I think it was an avoidable mistake on Beanes part and we are back to always working on the D line , but never doing enough with the o line to have a consistent starting group heading into the season opener. I don’t know enough about the FA from the dolphins but just judging their line play , I find it hard to believe they let some great talent walk , and I thought he was to take Bates’ place for depth purposes.  So it would seem like going in circles with the O line and it is forcing a need that Beane can’t ignore in the draft and goes against his preaching of taking BPA. 
 

I agree with you that they now can’t avoid addressing guard in the draft , and they are also almost forced into addressing CB as well.   That may take away from their ability to get an offensive playmaker to keep giving Josh , who you live and die with, some Stability at  wr / rb who he he could develop chemistry with for years to come. So far he has benefitted with Gabe and Knox ( took awhile to have that happen as they were projects in later rounds),  but everything else has been by grabbing Free agents and who knows how that will go. We hit with Smoke ( for a year of production only really) Beasley ( couple of good years ) , Sanders imo was a disappointment, tight ends have been disappointing ( let’s see If Howard bucks that trend ), Running backs have been very average so far ( this year again going with our second choice of FA rb who had productive years at least a couple of years back, so that’s another ?) , and our one big hit has been Diggs. Crowder could be good , but has developed injury issues and chemistry with Josh has to be developed again , which gives me ptsd after Sanders.
 

  My point is you have your franchise qb after 20 years of crap , and he is here 5 years now , and we have drafted 1 starting caliber  WR, 1 starting caliber TE,  1 possible starting Rb ( and I think we could do much better than motor ) 2 starting O linemen ( Dawkins / Brown)  as guys that can grow with Josh.  We have thrown a ton of FA money at the d line and used multiple high picks there and spent more money on special teams / Punter, various Cbs , various LBs  without hesitation, yet we are losing a starting guard because of a lack of foresight EVEN AFTER BEANE SAID IT WAS SUCH A PRIORITY!  When will they get serious about providing Josh with tools that will be here for more than a season , and use the draft to help with the cap and stop only helping the O by throwing new FA’s as stop gaps that require adjustment year after year.  Josh is how you win the SB ; look at how Burrows thrived with the right WR who has speed!  We don’t have that and now we may be forced to go CB , possibly guard o-line , early as we have no depth there.  You have a superstar qb , and the best you can do is keep throwing FA’s at the O ( wr , o line , rb) and I think you could argue they are placing him at risk of injury,  and not fully helping him become even better than he is now because they only look at tools for him AFTER  filling holes on the d and now they potentially have lost a starting guard unnecessarily.
 

 Maybe I will be wrong , and they match Bates’ offer and draft a talented Wr/ or Rb ( only the one rb is worth a 1 st imo) and go cb in the 4 th or later ( they have a track record of successfully developing cbs in later rounds , more so than success at developing wrs / rbs with later picks as for every Gabe there is hodgins ,foster, Zay jones, sweeny , Stevenson so far , moss, etc) and plan for the future by maximizing talent around Josh !  I hope so because we have done a ton for the defense ( whose limiting factor MAY be Frazier ), while every year Josh has been required to deal with a lot of variables , including a ROOKIE OC  this year and now again new o line men and a new slot receiver.  Focusing so much on the d got us a “#1” D , but we see where that facade has gotten us In the playoffs so far , early trips home ( but adding Miller is finally a great move defensively and no one could argue against that as a legit addition).    However, Beane , I hope does what he  promised , protect and give Josh all the support he deserves and that’s our  road to a Lombardi. The Bates’ issue and draft time will tell if it’s same old thing , or will we finally give Josh weapons to keep growing with !? 🙂

Who are the 3 starters we lost again? Of course your including Bates. Williams & Feliciano? Aren’t you being a little disingenuous using 3 guards as starters?

Edited March 25, 2022 by Paul Costa

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, Golden said:

 

Well said, which brings us right back to why did they only do right of first refusal as opposed to draft pick comp.  Here is where we see their perspective on this most clearly.  Beane is thorough, you know he has other plans in place. 

Agree 1.5M more and Bates remains a Bill.  No one would give up a 2nd for Bates.  Bills rightfully valued the 3 year player with 6 games of meaningful production..  There are OGs still on the market that can bring the same if not Higher production (not the position flexibility) as Bates.

[Golden]

3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Agree 1.5M more and Bates remains a Bill.  No one would give up a 2nd for Bates.  Bills rightfully valued the 3 year player with 6 games of meaningful production..  There are OGs still on the market that can bring the same if not Higher production (not the position flexibility) as Bates.

To your point, possibly Greg Mancz to fill Bates old role as a back up & your proposal of the OG’s still on the market.  Their hesitancy to put a draft round tender smells like perhaps they thought they could up grade on Bates if push came to shove. 

[HomeskillitMoorman]

Bring back Bates! We need the production and depth on the o-line. 

[YoloinOhio]

28 minutes ago, Golden said:

To your point, possibly Greg Mancz to fill Bates old role as a back up & your proposal of the OG’s still on the market.  Their hesitancy to put a draft round tender smells like perhaps they thought they could up grade on Bates if push came to shove. 

Yes, Mancz can play C too 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

Bring back Bates! We need the production and depth on the o-line. 

 

Anyone aware yet of what Bates offer sheet is from da Bears?

[Chicagobills]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Anyone aware yet of what Bates offer sheet is from da Bears?

Haven't heard yet I would expect in the 3mil-5mil range

[Brand J]

13 minutes ago, Chicagobills said:

Haven't heard yet I would expect in the 3mil-5mil range

If it’s more annually than the 2nd round tender, I feel Beane missed this one.

[Pags24]

16 minutes ago, Chicagobills said:

Haven't heard yet I would expect in the 3mil-5mil range

I think it'll be more than that....probably more like $5-7 million/year range. 

[DrPJax]

16 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Last I counted there are 5 starters on the O-line, Morse, Dawkins, and Brown are back that makes three.  If Bates does leave they lost their two guards, but added one back in Stafford.  That places them one starter down and one sub Feliciano who by the end of last season contributed very little.  Starting a rookie on the O-line isn't that unheard of and they can still or sign someone still out there.

 

What is sounds like you're entire point is, Beane made a mistake by not over paying for Bates.  If that's his biggest mistake that's not a bad problem to have.  We also have no idea if the Bills tried to work out a long term deal with him prior to giving the tender but again Bates wanted much more than they valued him at.

Good point , yet along the same lines , we don’t know it was “ overpaying” Bates.  Obviously another team didn’t feel like he was asking too much. There is something to be said for keeping continuity with the o line.  Ask any former o lineman like Fina , who is readily available on twitter and his podcast on YouTube. Guys get better as they play more together. It’s not always about just plugging someone in. We tried that several games last year and the results were bad. Why create another period of adjustment when we already have a brand new OC which even Mcd said “ we can expect growing pains with “!   Bates’ did a good job , he should have been a priority , yet we keep making mistakes with FA’s along the d line and because  of that we have to keep chasing our tail there and then we don’t have Money to pay our starting guard, who I have yet read or heard anyone say he didn’t play well.  
 

Let’s see what the bears think he’s worth and then Maybe have an idea relative to “overpaying”.  If we can keep finding money for the d line every offseason tho, I have a hard time believing we couldn’t have reached a reasonable deal with a guy who filled in very well and we also will lose out on all the extra time we spent developing him Over the years he was here. That is worth money in itself.  
 

As for plugging in a rookie , well Mcd has tendency of leaning more toward playing vets.  So you let a vet go , and plug in a new guy to the NFL and while it may work out in time , I just don’t see value in trying that on a team expected to compete for the SB. It’s not like you are drafting in the top 10 and you are getting some stud. Even in a deep cb draft, Kiper said there is no first round cb talent for the Bills at 25, as he has only 3 cbs of first round value and all are off by pick 15.   Along that thought process, I have not heard this is a great draft for guards or o linemen , and it’s one of the harder positions for rookies to come into and start. My point is not just about Bates’ , it’s about this regime continuing to focus on the d early in the draft and then hoping they hit for the offense in late rounds , other than when they drafted Allen as they were forced to address the most critical position related to getting to the SB.   Allen is how you are going to win, so why not for a change  focus on getting him some young , cheap , premier talent to support him early in the draft ?  Seemed to work well for the Bengals who already made it further than this regime has!  Can’t deny that ! Just as importantly , we have seen you can’t just plug in guys along the o line continuously as it hurts chemistry and imo , if they keep doing that you can expect games like losing to the Steelers in a home opener as the line was terrible early in the year. Lines take time to gel and the less “ moving “ pieces , the better it is for early chemistry and protecting your half billion dollar investment in Josh.  
 

Hey , like I said , they could match the Bears , and go o early In the draft!  If they do then it proves my point and they do see the need to protect Josh and keep adding firepower so he can keep improving as he is the ticket to winning a SB. You need to protect him with continuity on the line but also by getting the ball in other playmakers hands so he doesn’t have to keep being our leading Rb for example, as he will get injured and it will shorten his career if you don’t keep infusing the o with talent.  Plus after seeing what wrs have gotten paid in FA , they need to get some guys in case we can’t afford Diggs ( who was in reality a first round talent for us) after Josh’s contract kicks in. We could end up rich along the d , and surrounding Josh with bargain or average talent all the time , and that would be a sad use of a generational talent at QB. I hope that doesn’t happen. 🙂

[Bobby Hooks]

4 minutes ago, Pags24 said:

I think it'll be more than that....probably more like $5-7 million/year range. 

I read 6.5 on the internet somewhere. Rumor for sure, but I don’t see us matching that. 
 

But really, I don’t they would’ve bothered making the offer at all unless they thought it was a good one. 

Edited March 25, 2022 by Bobby Hooks

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Last I counted there are 5 starters on the O-line, Morse, Dawkins, and Brown are back that makes three.  If Bates does leave they lost their two guards, but added one back in Stafford.  That places them one starter down and one sub Feliciano who by the end of last season contributed very little.  Starting a rookie on the O-line isn't that unheard of and they can still or sign someone still out there.

 

What is sounds like you're entire point is, Beane made a mistake by not over paying for Bates.  If that's his biggest mistake that's not a bad problem to have.  We also have no idea if the Bills tried to work out a long term deal with him prior to giving the tender but again Bates wanted much more than they valued him at.

No, it’s not unheard of but it is scary for the leagues best team to start a rookie RG next to a RT that was bad in pass protection last season.  If the rookie is a 1st rd pick, not as scary….but are we going to use our 1st rd pick on a guard?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, DrPJax said:

Good point , yet along the same lines , we don’t know it was “ overpaying” Bates.  Obviously another team didn’t feel like he was asking too much. There is something to be said for keeping continuity with the o line.  Ask any former o lineman like Fina , who is readily available on twitter and his podcast on YouTube. Guys get better as they play more together. It’s not always about just plugging someone in. We tried that several games last year and the results were bad. Why create another period of adjustment when we already have a brand new OC which even Mcd said “ we can expect growing pains with “!   Bates’ did a good job , he should have been a priority , yet we keep making mistakes with FA’s along the d line and because  of that we have to keep chasing our tail there and then we don’t have Money to pay our starting guard, who I have yet read or heard anyone say he didn’t play well. 

 

Bates played well, the concern is that the sample size was small.  It's one thing to play well for a few games, it's another to hold up for a 17 game season.

 

Please to note that the "play together" = better argument

1) doesn't always work out - the Bills essentially brought back the same OL as last season and the play was much worse at the start of the season.  Dawkins, Feliciano, and Williams all played worse.

2) is moot from the Bills signing Saffold to play LG.   Bates would be returning to play a different position, RG, so they would be changing things up already

 

Nothing Beane said in the offseason indicated he was content to "run it back" with the same OL.  He referred to it as "a starting point" and mentioned several times needing to protect Josh, and that a better run game was part of protecting Josh.

 

14 minutes ago, DrPJax said:

As for plugging in a rookie , well Mcd has tendency of leaning more toward playing vets.

 

With Josh's new contract taking effect, McDermott is going to have to "Get Over It".

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 minutes ago, Bobby Hooks said:

I read 6.5 on the internet somewhere. Rumor for sure, but I don’t see us matching that. 
 

But really, I don’t they would’ve bothered making the offer at all unless they thought it was a good one. 

 

Do you know where you read that?  Thanks.

[Bobby Hooks]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Do you know where you read that?  Thanks.

A comment section, guy said he knew someone. Like I said, rumor for sure. But if it is, I don’t see us matching that. 

[Saxum]

2 hours ago, ALF said:

If the Bills are longer term and more guaranteed money that could do it.

 

They need to match the same terms.  Teams used to have phrases like "highest paid offense lineman" but those were disallowed later after being abused but there are plenty of terms. Some contracts are able to be matched and have enough holes you would think Jim Overdorf wrote it.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, DrPJax said:

Good point , yet along the same lines , we don’t know it was “ overpaying” Bates.  Obviously another team didn’t feel like he was asking too much. There is something to be said for keeping continuity with the o line.  Ask any former o lineman like Fina , who is readily available on twitter and his podcast on YouTube. Guys get better as they play more together. It’s not always about just plugging someone in. We tried that several games last year and the results were bad. Why create another period of adjustment when we already have a brand new OC which even Mcd said “ we can expect growing pains with “!   Bates’ did a good job , he should have been a priority , yet we keep making mistakes with FA’s along the d line and because  of that we have to keep chasing our tail there and then we don’t have Money to pay our starting guard, who I have yet read or heard anyone say he didn’t play well.  
 

Let’s see what the bears think he’s worth and then Maybe have an idea relative to “overpaying”.  If we can keep finding money for the d line every offseason tho, I have a hard time believing we couldn’t have reached a reasonable deal with a guy who filled in very well and we also will lose out on all the extra time we spent developing him Over the years he was here. That is worth money in itself.  
 

As for plugging in a rookie , well Mcd has tendency of leaning more toward playing vets.  So you let a vet go , and plug in a new guy to the NFL and while it may work out in time , I just don’t see value in trying that on a team expected to compete for the SB. It’s not like you are drafting in the top 10 and you are getting some stud. Even in a deep cb draft, Kiper said there is no first round cb talent for the Bills at 25, as he has only 3 cbs of first round value and all are off by pick 15.   Along that thought process, I have not heard this is a great draft for guards or o linemen , and it’s one of the harder positions for rookies to come into and start. My point is not just about Bates’ , it’s about this regime continuing to focus on the d early in the draft and then hoping they hit for the offense in late rounds , other than when they drafted Allen as they were forced to address the most critical position related to getting to the SB.   Allen is how you are going to win, so why not for a change  focus on getting him some young , cheap , premier talent to support him early in the draft ?  Seemed to work well for the Bengals who already made it further than this regime has!  Can’t deny that ! Just as importantly , we have seen you can’t just plug in guys along the o line continuously as it hurts chemistry and imo , if they keep doing that you can expect games like losing to the Steelers in a home opener as the line was terrible early in the year. Lines take time to gel and the less “ moving “ pieces , the better it is for early chemistry and protecting your half billion dollar investment in Josh.  
 

Hey , like I said , they could match the Bears , and go o early In the draft!  If they do then it proves my point and they do see the need to protect Josh and keep adding firepower so he can keep improving as he is the ticket to winning a SB. You need to protect him with continuity on the line but also by getting the ball in other playmakers hands so he doesn’t have to keep being our leading Rb for example, as he will get injured and it will shorten his career if you don’t keep infusing the o with talent.  Plus after seeing what wrs have gotten paid in FA , they need to get some guys in case we can’t afford Diggs ( who was in reality a first round talent for us) after Josh’s contract kicks in. We could end up rich along the d , and surrounding Josh with bargain or average talent all the time , and that would be a sad use of a generational talent at QB. I hope that doesn’t happen. 🙂

 

I went back and re-read your post, 4 times you used words like; error, mistake, lack of foresight, under estimated so pretty sure you were implying Beane should have paid more, like the 2nd round tender which is just under $4 mil.  That's a lot for a guy who's started 6 games total. 

 

Even when we know the Bears offer we won't really know the answer to whether they over paid or not for another couple of years.  What if it's only  $1 mil more and Beane declines to match, is that a mistake or is he really not worth that much, again won't know for awhile. 

 

Everyone is counting on Ford being done.  No one knows what Kromer (sp) thinks of him.  He may have told Beane he feels he can make him look just as good as Bates, maybe he's right or maybe he's wrong, but that could have gone into their thinking too regarding how much to pay now for Bates.

 

Or their plan may be to match regardless, but felt if they could initially get him cheaper, all the better as gives them more flexibility right now with the cap. From things I read sounded like their plan was tenmder him cheap, then sign him to a 2 to 3 year deal afterwards.