After All our Signings so far Update for the rest of UFA Period going into the Draft.

[MAJBobby]

First lets talk roster space.  Bills currently sit with 57 on Contract with 90 to bring to camp.

 

Historically Beane has left 2 positions open for ease of post draft flexibility So:

 

Camp Roster 90

On Contract 57

Draft Picks (if they use them all) - 9

 

That makes roughly roster at 66 total players

Historically Bills have AVG between 13-15 UDFA (now this really doesnt matter number wise for UFA but using it for planning purposes will use 13) - 79 players accounted for 

Lets say they leave their 2 slots open for post draft flexibility - 2 (total 81)

 

Leaves 9 UFAs likely left to get to camp.

 

So now look at positions groups (with the understanding Beane tries to fill all holes in UFA pre draft to maintain maximum flexibility in the draft)

 

QB - 1 on Contract Josh Allen.  (Historically Bills have brought 3 to camp so need two, likely a UFA and Developmental QB) - Might even wait on this position until After Draft. 

UFAs 

Fitzpatrick (might take the Vet Min Deal allowing with that veteran exemption this deal would only account for 890K (remember this for the end of the career types)

Andy Dalton

Winston

Mariota

 

RB  3 on contract - thanks to McKissic change of mind, we have rare insight in a plans at a position group.  So look for that 3rd down back, that catches and picks up blitzes

UFAs - There likely is more than I list here but these are the ones that fit the McKissic mold off top of my head

Gordan

Cohen

Richard

Patterson

Penny

McKinnon

 

WR 7 on contract.  I think they will add at least 1 here before draft, not sure if comes via UFA or Trade but some UFAs

UFAs

Jones

Landry

Crowder

Schuster

OBJ

 

TE 4 on contact.  I think we are done here but maybe a late in period value player when market cools on a 1 year prove it

UFAs

Hooper

Everett

Tonyan

 

OT 3 on contract (I think they will go with a Veteran Swing to come to camp)

UFAs

Armstead

Bulaga

D. Brown

T. Brown

Ifedi

 

OG 4 on Contract (i am still not liking this group, I think they will still look to add on before Draft)

Billy Turner - my choice position flexibility in all positions would be great depth.

Price

Boettger

Flowers

 

C 1 on contract (2 if you put Bates here and OG) i think this position is filled

UFAs (just in case)

Tretter

Paradia

Mancz

Bozeman

 

DE - 7 on contract

We are done in this position until draft IMO, unless something just falls in their lap

 

DT 5 on contract

See DE

 

LBer 6 on contract I think they will add at last 1 here before draft.

UFAs (there is alot that could allow adding mulitple cheap not alot of movement in LBers early)

Wagner - I did read somewhere he said he wants to stay on the West Coast.

Schobert

Hitchens

Barr

Trevathan

Kwiatkoski

 

CB 7 on Contract.  I think this is the focus area need to solidify a start (Tre INJ protection and CB2 insurance against Dane)  This could be 1 via trade and  1 via UFA too

UFAs (there are still alot of CBs that will do fine in the CB friendly McD defense)

Gilmore

Haden

Fuller

Peterson

King

Bouye

Nelson

Donte Jackson perfect fit IMO

 

S 6 on contract.  Likely Done unless some nice value presents itself late

UFAs

Mathieu

Collins

Neal

Peppers

Bates III

 

So with that laid out where I think the Bills will still go to address the want to provide max flexibility come draft are...

 

QB, RB, WR, OT, OG, LB (Marquel Lee signed 1 yr), CBx2 (that is 8 slots so inside that 9)

 

Final Note on Trades.  I really wish starting now and into the future our picks start being used for immediate impacts instead of Rookie.  (maybe a hybrid between Rams and Bills philosophy to Date trying to protect them).  I just dont see easy positions to make the team in a 3-7th round pick at this point.  So use them to get proven NFL players to get that first Lombardi.  That includes the trade deadline.

 

I have enjoyed the re-tooling so far, and look forward to seeing how the rest plays out as I start prepping and really refining my draft through this weekend.

Edited March 18, 2022 by MAJBobby

[SCBills]

Regarding your final note on trading picks for proven players, it’s going to be next to impossible for us to do that with Allen, Miller, White and Diggs all having huge cap hits the next few years.  
 

And who knows what we do with the trio of young guys looking for contracts next off-season in Oliver, Knox and Edmunds.  
 

I do believe that the draft philosophy needs to change from drafting positions that take time, to drafting immediate impact players.
 

We can lament EDGE all we want, but the fact is most teams who draft this position in the late 1st/2nd don’t know what they have until Year 2 or 3.   Same with TE.  
 

Hopefully with Miller here for the next 2-3 years and the development of our young guys + Knox, we’re done with that roller coaster for a while and can focus on immediate impact positions.  
 

Edited March 18, 2022 by SCBills

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

Good analysis and thanks for putting it together.  It might be interesting to look at the second tier of free agents.  Most of the ones listed above are going to get decent sized contracts and may be out of Beane's price range.  We all get caught up with the big names that are easily recognizable and hardly think about cap limitations.  I have a feeling that the free agents from this point forward will not be widely known players.  Realistically, the number 2 corner starting position is the only one that is really open.  The fourth WR after Diggs, Davis, and L'il Dirty will start the season as a limited role player.  The rest of the draftees will get a chance to compete but most likely end up as depth players or on the practice squad.  That's kind of the way it goes on good teams with good rosters.

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

Good analysis and thanks for putting it together.  It might be interesting to look at the second tier of free agents.  Most of the ones listed above are going to get decent sized contracts and may be out of Beane's price range.  We all get caught up with the big names that are easily recognizable and hardly think about cap limitations.  I have a feeling that the free agents from this point forward will not be widely known players.  Realistically, the number 2 corner starting position is the only one that is really open.  The fourth WR after Diggs, Davis, and L'il Dirty will start the season as a limited role player.  The rest of the draftees will get a chance to compete but most likely end up as depth players or on the practice squad.  That's kind of the way it goes on good teams with good rosters.

I did but to be honest by Saturday IMO that Big Money first waive is over, and these players still sitting here tells me their market might not have materialized as they thought.  So yes they may be Big Names, but at this point a week in and the first waive of Big Money UFA already spent I can see those Big Names taking 1 year prove it deals at this point.  Look at the CB market that quickly when to 1 and 2 year small money deals.  

[Clyde Smith]

I would be happy with King, Jackson or Bradbury trade.

[MWK]

I would love Turner, Crowder, and Haden or Fuller. How realistic is this, who knows, but this would fill our needs for sure. 

[NewEra]

Thanks.  Great assessment.  
 

The OG FA list is scary thin and we’re probably going to lose bates (imo). 
 

why no Fournette on that list?  He’s a great fit imo. 

[MAJBobby]

27 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Thanks.  Great assessment.  
 

The OG FA list is scary thin and we’re probably going to lose bates (imo). 
 

why no Fournette on that list?  He’s a great fit imo. 

There is just something about Fournette I dont like.  He should be on that list if I acknowledge my Bias against him.  And I can never put my finger on it, but I just do not like him.

[BearNorth]

3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

There is just something about Fournette I dont like.  He should be on that list if I acknowledge my Bias against him.  And I can never put my finger on it, but I just do not like him.

Perhaps his affiliation with TB12 enters into the thought process.

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

There is just something about Fournette I dont like.  He should be on that list if I acknowledge my Bias against him.  And I can never put my finger on it, but I just do not like him.

Gotcha.  He’s turned himself into a helluva receiving option.  Now with Shaq back in the fold, he’s probably not coming here. 

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, BearNorth said:

Perhaps his affiliation with TB12 enters into the thought process.

No not really.  I have hated him since he was coming out in the Draft as well.  I do wonder if it was around that time I started my Fundamental Shift in thinking that all RBs are replaceable and never pay a second contract to one, never draft them in early rounds, and he just became the face of that...  But I do recognize my personal Bias against him

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

Gotcha.  He’s turned himself into a helluva receiving option.  Now with Shaq back in the fold, he’s probably not coming here. 

I think it comes down to he was in the draft when my internal thinking shifted on RBs, to never draft them early, never pay them a second contract... And he just became the face of that shift, so therefore never can get past that.  But yes I agree his last couple years out of the backfield he has became a threat and could bring that to Buffalo will still bringing the interior power that would make Moss expendable.  

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

I agree with most of your assessment although QB Fitzpatrick made like 10M last year, there is absolutely no chance that he's going on any team for league minimum the way teams put a premium on the position even at backup, I'm guessing 8-10M once again.

 

Many posters seem to think we can just fill the CB position with anyone and it will work out, that's a scary way of looking at it in a SB window. I'm not saying we need another Tre White but a solid veteran playing with him to teach Dane Jackson and the rookie/rookies that we draft would be the smartest route, Peterson or Haden would be a fantastic addition imo.

 

OG imo is going to be drafted, I'm really surprised it's taking this long to find a RG. It just shows what a huge disappointment Cody Ford has been.

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Good analysis.

Pre-draft I would like to see them sign the backup QB, a veteran CB, and maybe one cheap RB.

I would trade Edmunds for a second and sign Wagner. I don’t think Beane will do that. 

I’d then target the draft for CB, WR, OL, and LB.

As for trades, unless they move Edmunds I can’t see how they could trade for a guy like DK or Lockett. So I don’t think they make a big move with any other day 1 or day 2 picks.

I would draft best punter in the 5th round and then trade away all 6th and 7th round picks for picks in 2023.  Almost none of those players would make the roster and they can sign a bunch of UDFA for camp bodies and PS. 

[MAJBobby]

16 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

I agree with most of your assessment although QB Fitzpatrick made like 10M last year, there is absolutely no chance that he's going on any team for league minimum the way teams put a premium on the position even at backup, I'm guessing 8-10M once again.

 

Many posters seem to think we can just fill the CB position with anyone and it will work out, that's a scary way of looking at it in a SB window. I'm not saying we need another Tre White but a solid veteran playing with him to teach Dane Jackson and the rookie/rookies that we draft would be the smartest route, Peterson or Haden would be a fantastic addition imo.

 

OG imo is going to be drafted, I'm really surprised it's taking this long to find a RG. It just shows what a huge disappointment Cody Ford has been.

 

He is 39, almost 40.  Coming off a major Hip injury.  after making 82M in his career.  So the longer he sits the closer to that vet min you get.  

 

Yes CB is the easiest position to fill on this defense with two premier safeties,  It is a very CB friendly defense.  Any Zone corner will give you what Levi did. 

 

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

8 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

He is 39, almost 40.  Coming off a major Hip injury.  after making 82M in his career.  So the longer he sits the closer to that vet min you get.  

 

Yes CB is the easiest position to fill on this defense with two premier safeties,  It is a very CB friendly defense.  Any Zone corner will give you what Levi did. 

 

I still disagree, he was 38 going on 39 last season and he got 10M, if he's ready to play they'll be no argument.

 

You also saw what happened to those corners against a real QB, which we'll be facing again. I'm not saying we can't get away with playing Dane Jackson or a rookie as our CB2 or 1 depending on Tre I'm just saying we shouldn't.

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

I still disagree, he was 38 going on 39 last season and he got 10M, if he's ready to play they'll be no argument.

 

You also saw what happened to those corners against a real QB, which we'll be facing again. I'm not saying we can't get away with playing Dane Jackson or a rookie as our CB2 or 1 depending on Tre I'm just saying we shouldn't.

ok agree to disagree on both.  we will see.

 

But if Fitz wants more then Min then I move on there are QBs that will take the Min deal for their shot at a Ring, while holding a clipboard.

Edited March 18, 2022 by MAJBobby

[folz]

Thanks for the info MAJBobby, especially on the free agents still available.

 

Another way to look at things right now might be in/out or added/lost:

 

Players lost (10):

WR Cole Beasley

WR Emmanuel Sanders

QB Mitch Trubisky

OG Jon Feliciano

OT/OG: Daryll Williams

DT Vernon Butler

DT Harrison Phillips

DT Star Lotulelei

LB A.J. Klein

CB Levi Wallace

 

Players Added (8):

OG Roger Saffold

TE O.J. Howard

DT Tim Settle

DT DaQuan Jones

DT Jordan Phillips

DE Shaq Lawson

DE/LB (Edge) Von Miller

LB Marquell Lee (though he may not fill a roster spot on the 53)

 

Undecided (10)...I expect less than half of these guys will be back:

RB Matt Breida (doubtful)

RB Taiwan Jones (possible-ST)

OL Ryan Bates (possible-depending on other team's interest)

OG Ike Boettger (possible-depending on recovery?)

OT Bobby Hart (No)

DT Justin Zimmer (doubtful)

DE Jerry Hughes (I think there is still a small possibility that either Jerry or Mario could come back, but only one)

DE Mario Addison (possible)

DE Efe Obada (possible)

 

So, as it stands now, we are still basically down the following positions from last year's team:

Backup QB

1-2 RBs (depending on Taiwan's status)

2 WRs

1 OG (if Boettger doesn't return)

1 swing OL (if Bates is lost)

1 OT

1 DE (if they don't bring back Hughes, Addison, or Obada)

1 CB

 

(I didn't add LB to the list, with the signing of Von and Lee, and thinking that we already have guys ready to step into Klein's role)

 

Of that list though, it is mostly backup/depth needed now. The only possible starting positions still needed would be:

1 CB (if Dane isn't ready to step up), 1 slot receiver (if Mckenzie/Howard aren't the answer for the majority of the slot snaps), OG, and maybe 1 DE (depending on how they use Miller and Lawson, if Boogie is ready to step up, and if they don't resign Hughes or Addison).

 

I expect Beane will fill most of these backup spots in FA over the next few weeks (on the cheap). Then it is just a matter of can we upgrade positions in the draft and/or pick guys to fill future RFA positions and depth/grooming.

 

So, the draft can be Best Player Available (as Beane likes it), with the only major wants for the upcoming season (imo) being a stud CB (if he can be found where we are drafting), an OG (Saffold ain't young and the other spot is up for grabs), and maybe a WR (deep threat/KR and/or slot). Obviously they want a third down back with the interest in McKissick, so that could be a position to watch also.

 

And to keep an eye on next year, other than the 1-year deals signed by this year's FAs (Saffold, Howard, Lawson, and Phillips), next year's Unrestricted Free Agents who are starters are:

S Jordan Poyer

C Mitch Morse

LB Tremaine Edmunds

RB Devin Singletary

TE Dawson Knox

 

So, anyone they might not resign next year, would be added as a possible draft position this year. I think they will resign Knox and Poyer for sure. The other 3 who knows. So, Center, Running Back, and Linebacker could all be positions to draft and groom for a year. 

 

So at this point, draft wise, I'd like to see these positions addressed (listed in order of importance): CB, OG, WR, RB and then maybe C and LB (depending on their plans for Morse and Tremaine). A QB to groom as Josh's backup could also be in the mix if they don't pick-up a FA QB.